You forgot the two games Baylor beat Oklahoma state.
Anyone get the impression Houston played their best game vs OSU and just didn't have the steam to play Baylor?
Most fundamentally, Oregon State posted its worst free-throw shooting performance since the Washington State game to kick off December 2020. And those two games are the Beavers' worst two free throw shooting games since San Jose State in 2019.
The Beavers had 20 free throws against both Loyola-Chicago and Houston, 6 in the first half and 14 in the second half. Against Loyola-Chicago, Oregon State was 5/6 in the first half and 13/14 in the second half. Against Houston, Oregon State was 1/6 in the first half and 10/14 in the second half. If Oregon State had done the same in the first half against Houston, the Cougars would have only been up 34-21 at the half. After Oregon State cut the lead to 13, Maurice Calloo was fouled. (It would have been a nine-point game, if the Beavers had made their free throws in the first half.) Calloo had not missed a free throw since the Washington State game in early February and had not missed two free throws in a game since playing in Norman against Oklahoma before he transferred to Oregon State. Calloo, however, went ahead and missed two of his three free throws. What could have been a five- or six-point game with made free throws was now a 12-point game. And Houston immediately got the rebound and turned it into a 14-point lead. Oregon State turned on the jets from there, though and went on a 17-3 run to tie the game 55-55. If Oregon State had shot free throws like the game previous, though, the Beavers would have led 61-55. Houston's 5-1 spurt would have only pulled the Cougars within two rather than putting Houston up by four. The last two minutes play out differently with Oregon State up two than it did with Houston up four. As it was the Beavers tried and missed two three-pointers, Houston hitting one of three free throws to go up five. Then Thompson was tripped by Dejon Jarreau, which was called a jump ball (which I still think was a bad call). Another foul, which led to Houston hitting one of two free throws to go up six. Gianni Hunt then dribbled out of bounds, which caused Warith Alatishe to foul out. Houston ran it up to eight. Ethan Thompson cut it to six. Because Alatishe had fouled out, what should have been a steal by Alatishe was an intentional foul by Calloo, which led to an additional three points for Houston. Calloo then hit the three-pointer to make the final a six-point Cougar win.
A big reason that the Beavers lost was because they shot a putrid 1/6 from the charity stripe in the first half. Oregon State was still a good enough team to tie it up but made too many mistakes down the stretch to win. The Beavers would have had a much easier time coming back and a much easier time maintaining a lead rather than chasing points, if they had made their free throws earlier
A deeper dive into analytics follows:
Looking at Oregon State, while Oregon State was the second-best offensive team (behind only Baylor) that Houston played in the Tournament, offensively, Oregon State had its worst offensive game since the game against California, a 59-57 win. If Oregon State's offense from the Pac-12 Semifinal or Championship had showed up, the Beavers would have won.
Houston played its second-best offensive game in the Tournament behind only the Cleveland State game. Defensively, the Houston game was Oregon State's worst since the Colorado game (the Beavers' best offensive game since the 91-71 win over Washington in February). Those games are the first- and second-worst games since the Oregon game to conclude the regular season. And those three are the worst Beaver defensive games since the loss at the Galen Center in late January.
If Houston's offense from Baylor, Rutgers or Syracuse shows up, the Beavers win. If Oregon State's defense from the Pac-12 Semifinal, Tennessee, Oklahoma State or Loyola-Chicago game shows up, the Beavers win.
Houston's effective field goal percentage was its lowest in 2021. The Cougars, though, had their fewest turnovers since February. Houston's offensive rebound percentage was its second highest (behind the Cleveland State game) for all games since the end of January. Houston shot the second-most free throws against Oregon State behind only the Cleveland State game.
While Houston's effective field goal percentage was its lowest in 2021, Oregon State held Tennessee, Oklahoma State and Loyola-Chicago to even lower effective field goal percentages. If Houston had shot like Loyola-Chicago, Oklahoma State or Tennessee, Oregon State wins. The Beavers' success with regards to effective field goal percentage was anomalous compared to how they fared in the Pac-12. The four Tournament teams shot the ball worse than any team dating back to UCLA at Pauley at the end of January. Only Northwest University shot worse against Oregon State than Tennessee, Oklahoma State and Loyola-Chicago. Tennessee, Oklahoma State and Loyola-Chicago shot worse against Oregon State than any Division 1 opponent since San Jose State in 2019.
Houston had the fewest turnovers of any Oregon State opponent since Oregon at Matthew Knight Arena last season.
Houston had the best offensive rebound percentage against Oregon State since USC at Galen at the end of January. Houston and USC had a better offensive rebound percentage than any Beaver opponents since the game against Kent State in 2016.
Houston shot a lot of free throws, but Loyola-Chicago and Oklahoma State each shot more. UCLA in the Pac-12 Tournament was the last game that a team shot more free throws than Oregon State's last three games in Indiana.
Oregon State's effective field goal percentage was higher than against Loyola-Chicago and Oklahoma State. Oregon State's offensive turnovers were second-lowest in the Tournament behind only Loyola-Chicago. Oregon State's offensive rebound percentage was its lowest for all games since the UCLA game in the Pac-12 Tournament. Those two games are the two worst offensive rebounding games since the California game at the end of February. (The Beavers worst two offensive rebounding games were the UCLA Pac-12 Tournament game and the Houston game.) Oregon State shot the fewest free throws since the Tennessee game.
In total, the Beavers had their worst rebounding game since Arizona on February 11, 2021, and those are the worst two rebounding games for Oregon State since USC games in January. In fact, the only two teams that had better rebounding games against Oregon State were Arizona and USC on the season.
In the Tournament, Oregon State shot better against Houston than any team not named Baylor. In the Tournament, Oregon State had the fewest turnovers against Houston than any team not named Baylor. In the Tournament, Oregon State had the best offensive rebounding percentage of any team against Houston not named Baylor.
While the Beavers' rebounding was their third-worst on the season, what Houston did against Oregon State was roughly comparable to what the Cougars did against most of their opponents on the season.
