One of the Pac 12 conference leaders is fading fast

Utah now at the top.  Washington a game back in second.  Oregon State a game back of Washington in third.  Arizona is in fourth, percentage points behind Oregon State.

Wins by California and Oregon State would vault the Beavers into second.  A win puts Oregon State into at least third.

A loss and, best case scenario, Oregon State is in a four-way tie for fourth.  Worst case scenario is a five-way tie for fifth.

Oregon beat Wazzu to move into a tie for eighth.

The Pac-12 has the third-highest RPI.  Games against one another are driving all of the team's RPI up.  If Oregon State can put together a winning streak somewhere, the Beavers' RPI is going to be good enough to host.  The Beavers really need to go 4-1 over the next five to put themselves in a good position to host.

The problem with Boyd's World is that it assumes all other results are static rather than projecting.  The Pac-12 teams playing each other improves Oregon State's SOS and opponents' SOS.  This is the RPI amplification problem.  The Pac-12's RPI is third, behind the ACC and SEC.  Thus, Oregon State's RPI improves against all other teams other than the ACC and SEC merely by the conference playing more and more games against one another.  This occurs whether the Beavers win or lose but is amplified by Oregon State wins.  Other things, like Arizona State beating New Mexico improves SOS, which drastically improves RPI.  For example, Oregon State had an RPI of 41 yesterday.  The Beavers lost to fall to 49.  By the time Boyd's World had updated its numbers, Oregon State had already risen to 43.  Before the Beavers beat the Cardinals, Oregon State was back to 41.  By winning, the Beavers rose to 39.

It is not as black and white as you are making it out.  The polls are far more important to determine hosts than RPI.  RPI, on the other hand is much more important to determine whether a team is in or out.  Oregon State is between 10 and 18, which means that the Beavers should host as long as they keep posting winning weeks.  I am curious how the pollsters handle Oregon State's 2-2 week this week.  Still, regardless of everything else, if the Beavers win the Pac-12 with an RPI of 34 or better, they should host a Regional.  A national seed seems a stretch, unless Oregon State can put together a 10-game winning streak.