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Post by lotrader on May 19, 2020 20:14:01 GMT -8
Aleah made an immense amount of improvement last year in her 1 v 1 defense, which I attribute to playing 3 v 3 all summer. I think our TO's will go down, mostly because we have Taya and Ellie Mack who are both great passers. Watching Ellie Mack's game, she doesn't hold the ball, she is always moving, and, has great court vision. Aleah will step up at point, not suggesting she is going to shake and bake and lose her defender, but she will operate and run the offense well. We still need to find Aleah a backup point guard.
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Post by beaverstever on May 19, 2020 21:16:43 GMT -8
Two points I disagree with. To me Goodman improved dramatically from Fr. to Soph year, but it's debatable if she improved again last year. Her 3 point shooting and overall FG percentages went up, assists went up. Scoring was down even with a bit of an increase in minutes. Mostly what I remember about her last season is a LONG scoring drought throughout the middle of the season. I guess when she was good she was really good, and when she wasn't she was nearly invisible.
The other point is about turnovers. TOs have been a problem throughout Rueck's tenure. It really hasn't mattered who was playing PG. I have no reason to think it will be any different next season. Doesn't matter that Pivec and Slocum won't be there. Goodman will be handling the ball more and I'd expect her TOs to increase. Pivec and Slocum both had more assists than Goodman. Aleah will need to assume more play making duties, which will almost certainly lead to more TOs. And when the ball isn't in Goodman's hands, that leaves a bunch of relatively inexperienced guards, who will certainly have some TOs. Expect OSU to be have a negative net TO differential compared to their opponents again, just like it is every year.
The nature of OSU's turnovers is directly related to the offensive sets and screens that the Beavers run. OSU runs a very deliberate offense that requires precise execution and timing or it isn't consistently effective. Turnovers and overpassing are common byproducts as opposing defenses jump routes that their coaching staffs have repeatedly seen and have scouted. I agree with the poster above who stated that higher turnovers are consistently linked to Rueck's sets, regardless of personnel. One would think that teams that don't run much would have fewer turnovers, but I have come to the conclusion that OSU historically tries to force too many passes into tight spaces and gives away possessions often when players pass up open shots and throw away the extra pass. Absent a change in offensive philosophy and schemes next season, you can expect 14-15 turnovers per game for the Beavs, minimal transition buckets, lots of entry passes to get the ball inside to Jones, and plenty of elevator screens to try to free their best shooters including Mack and Goodman. I used to believe the TOs were related to the offense more, but I believe that less now. This is because OSU had a lot of games, particularly late last season, where the TOs were a pretty decent number. For instance, 3 of the 4 UO/Stanford games were single digit TO games. Then there's outliers like 24 vs. UCLA. There's also the 8 TO game vs. ASU in the win, which had forced 15 at their place. So it seems more correlated to the defense style of the opponent than OSU's offense, and how effective that defense is. The TO types I noticed were: - Forcing into post (Offense-style related plus having young post players) - Jumping passing lanes (loosely offense-related, but also defensive style) - Unforced TOs (Player related mental errors/decisions) - Forced TOs - Press: Defense-related - Drives into paint with nothing there: Player related (Pivek, Slocum) - Offensive fouls on drives: Player related (Typically Pivec's bullying style) - Offensive fouls on Picks: Offense related; Rueck seems to push the envelope on these, and some refs disagreed with our high-post picks Rueck's offense was sub double-digits a lot in conference play last year, and that has changed my tune on this. I do believe he sees a TO on a pass into the post as not much worse than a missed shot, and that's probably true... but in general I think he cares about this stat more than I used to think. Also, teams that push the ball and score a lot of point are not necessarily more prone to high TOs. Top 3 in scoring are UO, Ark and DePaul, and they all also rank very high in TO rankings (for lows). Bottom line, our TOs seem to be a mix of player decisions/technique, the defenses we play against and their general ability to create TOs, and our offensive style ... and possibly in that order. |
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Post by 411500 on May 20, 2020 6:47:31 GMT -8
beaverstever - - Enjoyed your breakdown of Beaver turnovers....Interesting and thoughtful...
Beaver turnovers have been driving me crazy for years....But I have never compiled a systematic breakdown in the way you have done in your post....
GO BEAVS!!
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