Some interesting new scientific data related to COVID-19 mortality rates

kersting13
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Some interesting new scientific data related to COVID-19 mortality rates May 14, 2020 14:10:36 GMT -8 zeroposter, wilkyisdashiznit, and 1 more like this

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Post by kersting13 on May 14, 2020 14:10:36 GMT -8

From here

The most interesting piece of this data:

When analyzing at the breakdown of deaths by age and condition [source], we can observe how, out of 15,230 confirmed deaths in New York City up to May 12, only 690 (4.5%) occurred in patients under the age of 65 who did not have an underlying medical condition (or for which it is unknown whether they had or did not have an underlying condition).

Underlying illnesses include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, GI/Liver Disease, and Obesity [source]

Under 65-year-old and healthy (0.06% IFR and 0.01% CMR)

infection fatality rate: 0.06% (compared to 1.4% for the general population)

crude mortality rate: 0.01%, or 13 deaths per 100,000 population (compared to 0.28% and 279 deaths)

1 death every 7,912 people who belong to this group (compared to 1 death every 358 people)

Under 75-year-old and healthy (0.15% IFR and 0.03% CMR)

infection fatality rate: 0.15% (compared to 1.4% for the general population)

crude mortality rate: 0.03%, or 31 deaths per 100,000 population (compared to 0.28% and 279 deaths)

1 death every 3,255 people who belong to this group (compared to 1 death every 358 people)

kersting13
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Some interesting new scientific data related to COVID-19 mortality rates May 14, 2020 16:01:31 GMT -8

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Post by kersting13 on May 14, 2020 16:01:31 GMT -8

May 14, 2020 14:10:36 GMT -8 kersting13 said:

From here

The most interesting piece of this data:

When analyzing at the breakdown of deaths by age and condition [source], we can observe how, out of 15,230 confirmed deaths in New York City up to May 12, only 690 (4.5%) occurred in patients under the age of 65 who did not have an underlying medical condition (or for which it is unknown whether they had or did not have an underlying condition).

Underlying illnesses include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, GI/Liver Disease, and Obesity [source]

Under 65-year-old and healthy (0.06% IFR and 0.01% CMR)

infection fatality rate: 0.06% (compared to 1.4% for the general population)

crude mortality rate: 0.01%, or 13 deaths per 100,000 population (compared to 0.28% and 279 deaths)

1 death every 7,912 people who belong to this group (compared to 1 death every 358 people)

Under 75-year-old and healthy (0.15% IFR and 0.03% CMR)

infection fatality rate: 0.15% (compared to 1.4% for the general population)

crude mortality rate: 0.03%, or 31 deaths per 100,000 population (compared to 0.28% and 279 deaths)

1 death every 3,255 people who belong to this group (compared to 1 death every 358 people)

Of course, the question this doesn't answer is what % of people under age 65 and under age 75 have none of the "underlying illnesses"? A lot of young, healthy, active people can have diabetes, asthma, or an immunodeficiency.

kersting13
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Some interesting new scientific data related to COVID-19 mortality rates May 14, 2020 18:38:27 GMT -8

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Post by kersting13 on May 14, 2020 18:38:27 GMT -8

May 14, 2020 16:01:31 GMT -8 kersting13 said:

May 14, 2020 14:10:36 GMT -8 kersting13 said:

From here

The most interesting piece of this data:

Of course, the question this doesn't answer is what % of people under age 65 and under age 75 have none of the "underlying illnesses"? A lot of young, healthy, active people can have diabetes, asthma, or an immunodeficiency.

And now they've removed that original info, because they can't say what % of people under age 65 or 75 have no underlying illnesses.

Still, I believe the original gist still exists - if you're under age 65 and have no underlying conditions, you have a near zero chance of dying from a COVID-19 infection, and the younger you are, the lower your risk.

sagebrush
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Some interesting new scientific data related to COVID-19 mortality rates May 15, 2020 3:03:45 GMT -8 kersting13, DubiousBeav, and 1 more like this

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Post by sagebrush on May 15, 2020 3:03:45 GMT -8

Youe numbers are why us old goats are nervous. I have had a heart attack and only 3/4 of my heart works. I have had bladder cancer which is in remission. Even on reopening, I plan on being a hermit to see how that works out.

ag87
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Some interesting new scientific data related to COVID-19 mortality rates May 15, 2020 8:18:50 GMT -8

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Post by ag87 on May 15, 2020 8:18:50 GMT -8

May 14, 2020 18:38:27 GMT -8 kersting13 said:

May 14, 2020 16:01:31 GMT -8 kersting13 said:

Of course, the question this doesn't answer is what % of people under age 65 and under age 75 have none of the "underlying illnesses"? A lot of young, healthy, active people can have diabetes, asthma, or an immunodeficiency.

And now they've removed that original info, because they can't say what % of people under age 65 or 75 have no underlying illnesses.

Still, I believe the original gist still exists - if you're under age 65 and have no underlying conditions, you have a near zero chance of dying from a COVID-19 infection, and the younger you are, the lower your risk.

The big unknown for me is what percentage of people have underlying conditions. I know that percentage goes up as you age. For me, I have GI disease (Crohn's) and I'm 56. I run, weight train, some yoga, eat right, etc, but I believe if I caught the virus it would knock the sh1t out of me. I think everyone I know around my age group has something they take pills for - hypertension, pre-diabetes, a heart condition and so on. What do you think that percentage is? I'm guessing over 50% for ages 50+, maybe 75% for ages 60+. My circle is limited so I'm curious what other people think the preexisting percentages are.

kersting13
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Posts: 2,935

Some interesting new scientific data related to COVID-19 mortality rates May 15, 2020 10:54:30 GMT -8

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Post by kersting13 on May 15, 2020 10:54:30 GMT -8

May 15, 2020 8:18:50 GMT -8 ag87 said:

May 14, 2020 18:38:27 GMT -8 kersting13 said:

And now they've removed that original info, because they can't say what % of people under age 65 or 75 have no underlying illnesses.

Still, I believe the original gist still exists - if you're under age 65 and have no underlying conditions, you have a near zero chance of dying from a COVID-19 infection, and the younger you are, the lower your risk.

The big unknown for me is what percentage of people have underlying conditions. I know that percentage goes up as you age. For me, I have GI disease (Crohn's) and I'm 56. I run, weight train, some yoga, eat right, etc, but I believe if I caught the virus it would knock the sh1t out of me. I think everyone I know around my age group has something they take pills for - hypertension, pre-diabetes, a heart condition and so on. What do you think that percentage is? I'm guessing over 50% for ages 50+, maybe 75% for ages 60+. My circle is limited so I'm curious what other people think the preexisting percentages are.

I would have to think it surely goes up with age. Some of the most "healthy" or "in shape" people can have conditions like diabetes, or asthma, or Crohn's (my 24 yo niece has Crohn's) so it's not like the underlying illnesses have to be something drastic.

The last thing I think we want to do is minimize the disease - the target population of "older" and "underlying conditions" is a VERY large portion of the population. I just thought the information presented in it's original form was pretty interesting and informative - even if when you follow the link now, it has been changed.