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Post by mbabeav on Apr 4, 2020 21:55:51 GMT -8
On an average day, around 7750 people die in the US from all causes. We may have a streak of 8-10 days coming were Deaths from the COVID virus double that number.
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Post by baseba1111 on Apr 5, 2020 10:19:17 GMT -8
On an average day, around 7750 people die in the US from all causes. We may have a streak of 8-10 days coming were Deaths from the COVID virus double that number. As many experts throw out numbers others have warned they can be completely misleading. In some areas the Covid death numbers include those who were already severely compromised (some have estimated 75-90%). Many of those would be in the daily/yearly death numbers from other causes including the flu. Covid will get the the death certificate designation on many who were literally near dying. And, as reported in Italy many deaths attributed to Covid simply are not. Focus on the positive numbers. Last time I looked in Oregon 97% of those tested were negative; 213 258 cases/1 million people. As of now that's 0.0026 or just above 2/10s of 1% to even get the virus. Everyone keep safe, you and others, by practicing good habits. |
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Post by NativeBeav on Apr 5, 2020 11:53:36 GMT -8
On an average day, around 7750 people die in the US from all causes. We may have a streak of 8-10 days coming were Deaths from the COVID virus double that number. As many experts throw out numbers others have warned they can be completely misleading. In some areas the Covid death numbers include those who were already severely compromised (some have estimated 75-90%). Many of those would be in the daily/yearly death numbers from other causes including the flu. Covid will get the the death certificate designation on many who were literally near dying. And, as reported in Italy many deaths attributed to Covid simply are not. Focus on the positive numbers. Last time I looked in Oregon 97% of those tested were negative; 213 cases/1 million people. As of now that's 0.002 or 2/10s of 1% to even get the virus. Everyone keep safe, you and others, by practicing good habits. If we can finally get some actual factual numbers in the coming weeks, as you elude to baseba1111, I do not expect the final numbers to be anywhere near what they have predicted, even as recently as a week ago (100-240k dead in the US). I really believe if more and more hospitals give the off label drug regimen that continues to help those afflicted, the numbers will be even less.
One thing is for certain - expect the politicians to go out of their way to hurt themselves patting themselves on the back, for saving the country from the original projections (2.2 mil dead), and the real heroes to not get the lion's share of the credit - doctors, nurses, first responders, and the entire US population that has practiced safe distancing, washing and voluntary shelter in place.
My prediction? No more that 50k dead - not good, but a far cry from what we were being told a month ago. And, numbers wise, like a bad flu season. And yes, I do know if we had done nothing, the numbers would be much worse.
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Post by ag87 on Apr 5, 2020 12:35:06 GMT -8
On an average day, around 7750 people die in the US from all causes. We may have a streak of 8-10 days coming were Deaths from the COVID virus double that number. As many experts throw out numbers others have warned they can be completely misleading. In some areas the Covid death numbers include those who were already severely compromised (some have estimated 75-90%). Many of those would be in the daily/yearly death numbers from other causes including the flu. Covid will get the the death certificate designation on many who were literally near dying. And, as reported in Italy many deaths attributed to Covid simply are not. Focus on the positive numbers. Last time I looked in Oregon 97% of those tested were negative; 213 258 cases/1 million people. As of now that's 0.0026 or just above 2/10s of 1% to even get the virus. Everyone keep safe, you and others, by practicing good habits. trying to make sense of your numbers - 97% negative means 3% positive. If Oregon has 258 cases per million people, then Oregon has about 1000 cases. If there's 1000 cases at 3%, that means about 34000 tests have been done in Oregon. So currently we have tested less than 1% of the population? That's assuming nobody has been tested more than once. Now my take on this. If 20% to 50% of the cases are asymptomatic or very minor symptoms there are possibly 10's of 1000's of folks in Oregon walking around who don't know they are potentially spreading it. To my math challenged brain, that's extremely problematic. Per zeroposter's link (after this post) positive are over 5%. And testing is around 18,500. |
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Post by zeroposter on Apr 5, 2020 12:45:02 GMT -8
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Post by baseba1111 on Apr 5, 2020 13:17:47 GMT -8
As many experts throw out numbers others have warned they can be completely misleading. In some areas the Covid death numbers include those who were already severely compromised (some have estimated 75-90%). Many of those would be in the daily/yearly death numbers from other causes including the flu. Covid will get the the death certificate designation on many who were literally near dying. And, as reported in Italy many deaths attributed to Covid simply are not. Focus on the positive numbers. Last time I looked in Oregon 97% of those tested were negative; 213 258 cases/1 million people. As of now that's 0.0026 or just above 2/10s of 1% to even get the virus. Everyone keep safe, you and others, by practicing good habits. trying to make sense of your numbers - 97% negative means 3% positive. If Oregon has 258 cases per million people, then Oregon has about 1000 cases. If there's 1000 cases at 3%, that means about 34000 tests have been done in Oregon. So currently we have tested less than 1% of the population? That's assuming nobody has been tested more than once. Now my take on this. If 20% to 50% of the cases are asymptomatic or very minor symptoms there are possibly 10's of 1000's of folks in Oregon walking around who don't know they are potentially spreading it. To my math challenged brain, that's extremely problematic. Per zeroposter's link (after this post) positive are over 5%. And testing is around 18,500. Again numbers from different sites and don't jibe... that's the point. No one knows and even after this subsides no one will know exactly. As for Oregon they are one of the States being accused of not reporting all data in a timely matter, especially a breakdown by age and those recovered. But Google maps is fairly accurate and as of last night had Oregon at 999/26... so pretty much in line (1068/27) with the site posted above. I beleive Google Maps is using an incorrect population for Oregon, in the 3.88 million range, which I believe might be what the 2010 census was?! And, at a population near/around 4.3 million in 2020 (4.191 in 2018), 1068 cases is about 248/1 million, so again fairly accurate. And at 27 deaths in 1068 cases the Mortality rate of 2.5% is well below the rate for P&I (Pneumonia and Influenza A & B) in Oregon at 8.2% thru March 28th, 2020. Epidemic threshold is considered 7.2%. www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/COMMUNICABLEDISEASE/DISEASESURVEILLANCEDATA/INFLUENZA/Documents/data/FluBites.pdfIt doesn't mean it will not get worse for a bit, but there is no need to focus on the scare tactic negative numbers. There are positives for those who actually want to see them. That includes a number of extremely positive drug trials/write ups of medicines repurposed that do not have to go thru the same long processes as a new vaccine. And, again, if we practice good habits it will get better. |
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Post by zeroposter on Apr 5, 2020 13:44:50 GMT -8
trying to make sense of your numbers - 97% negative means 3% positive. If Oregon has 258 cases per million people, then Oregon has about 1000 cases. If there's 1000 cases at 3%, that means about 34000 tests have been done in Oregon. So currently we have tested less than 1% of the population? That's assuming nobody has been tested more than once. Now my take on this. If 20% to 50% of the cases are asymptomatic or very minor symptoms there are possibly 10's of 1000's of folks in Oregon walking around who don't know they are potentially spreading it. To my math challenged brain, that's extremely problematic. Per zeroposter's link (after this post) positive are over 5%. And testing is around 18,500. Again numbers from different sites and don't jibe... that's the point. No one knows and even after this subsides no one will know exactly. As for Oregon they are one of the States being accused of not reporting all data in a timely matter, especially a breakdown by age and those recovered. But Google maps is fairly accurate and as of last night had Oregon at 999/26... so pretty much in line (1068/27) with the site posted above. And, at a population near/around 4.3 million in 2020 (4.191 in 2018), 1068 cases is about 248/1 million, so again fairly accurate. And at 27 deaths in 1068 cases the Mortality rate of 2.5% is well below the rate for P&I (Pneumonia and Influenza A & B) in Oregon at 8.2% thru March 28th, 2020. Epidemic threshold is considered 7.2%. www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/COMMUNICABLEDISEASE/DISEASESURVEILLANCEDATA/INFLUENZA/Documents/data/FluBites.pdfIt doesn't mean it will not get worse, but there is no need to focus on the scare tactic negatives. There are positives for those who actually want to see them. And, again, if we practice good habits it will get better. I just posted the link as it is the most reliable site for Oregon. And please show me a link to anything, anywhere that says Oregon is under reporting. The primary stats do mean little. However, the ICU bed status is important as well as a couple of other stats. I also do not view the info as alarming or scary--just informative. And as reliable as any available stats as far as key factors. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Apr 5, 2020 14:05:24 GMT -8
Again numbers from different sites and don't jibe... that's the point. No one knows and even after this subsides no one will know exactly. As for Oregon they are one of the States being accused of not reporting all data in a timely matter, especially a breakdown by age and those recovered. But Google maps is fairly accurate and as of last night had Oregon at 999/26... so pretty much in line (1068/27) with the site posted above. And, at a population near/around 4.3 million in 2020 (4.191 in 2018), 1068 cases is about 248/1 million, so again fairly accurate. And at 27 deaths in 1068 cases the Mortality rate of 2.5% is well below the rate for P&I (Pneumonia and Influenza A & B) in Oregon at 8.2% thru March 28th, 2020. Epidemic threshold is considered 7.2%. www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/COMMUNICABLEDISEASE/DISEASESURVEILLANCEDATA/INFLUENZA/Documents/data/FluBites.pdfIt doesn't mean it will not get worse, but there is no need to focus on the scare tactic negatives. There are positives for those who actually want to see them. And, again, if we practice good habits it will get better. I just posted the link as it is the most reliable site for Oregon. And please show me a link to anything, anywhere that says Oregon is under reporting. The primary stats do mean little. However, the ICU bed status is important as well as a couple of other stats. I also do not view the info as alarming or scary--just informative. And as reliable as any available stats as far as key factors. As did I with the one posted above... |
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