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Post by beavershoopsfan on Mar 2, 2020 11:33:29 GMT -8
A good showing in Vegas will enhance the team's chances to be one of the 16 host schools for the first two rounds of the NCAA tourney. A great showing will nail down a hosting weekend for Corvallis.
How many wins will it take for the Beavs at the 2020 PAC-12 Tournament to earn the right to host two NCAA tourney rounds at Gill Coliseum?
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Post by willtalk on Mar 2, 2020 21:15:41 GMT -8
It also depends on how well their competition for the last hosting slots does in their own tournaments.
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Post by bvrbooster on Mar 2, 2020 22:26:45 GMT -8
It's a tough question. If the Beavs lose to Stanford, well, Stanford's a top ten team. Who will the teams most likely to take that 4 seed away from us be playing in the second round of their conference tournament? Texas A&M would be a good example, as they just fell from 4 to 5. I don't know their seeding in their own conference, but I'm guessing they're somewhere in the top 4. So, in the second round, they would be playing a lesser opponent - perhaps much lesser.
If we lose to the number 7 or 8 team in the nation (can't recall exactly), and A&M beats some 12 loss team, is that enough for them to jump us? You could perhaps make a case either way.
It would be good for this discussion to know the road that awaits each of the projected 5 seeds this weekend. Who will they face, and what is the RPI of the teams they'll meet?
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Post by baseba1111 on Mar 2, 2020 22:48:38 GMT -8
It's a tough question. If the Beavs lose to Stanford, well, Stanford's a top ten team. Who will the teams most likely to take that 4 seed away from us be playing in the second round of their conference tournament? Texas A&M would be a good example, as they just fell from 4 to 5. I don't know their seeding in their own conference, but I'm guessing they're somewhere in the top 4. So, in the second round, they would be playing a lesser opponent - perhaps much lesser. If we lose to the number 7 or 8 team in the nation (can't recall exactly), and A&M beats some 12 loss team, is that enough for them to jump us? You could perhaps make a case either way. It would be good for this discussion to know the road that awaits each of the projected 5 seeds this weekend. Who will they face, and what is the RPI of the teams they'll meet? But, it's more than a 2 game proposition. If OSU loses to Furd their done earning "credits". If one or two of the 5 seeds (same with 16 seed) win 2, 3 games... get to their championship game, or win it... OSU will drop no matter Furd's ranking. It's the subjectivity of seeding. Teams do, and don't, control their own destiny. |
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Post by bvrbooster on Mar 2, 2020 23:02:52 GMT -8
I looked it up. The projected 5 seeds (by Charlie Creme) are Princeton, Texas A&M, DePaul, and Missouri State.
Princeton , even if they win the Ivy tournament, isn't going to displace a top 20 team that lost to a top 10 team. Beating other Ivy League teams just isn't going to impress the committee.
Missouri State (who we have beaten) is the number 1 seed in the Missouri Valley Conference - other than Drake, pretty weak field. If they don't win their tourney, they might drop. If they do win it, is that enough? Their RPI is already very high, so that's factored in to their current 5 seed nationally. I don't think they can displace us.
Ditto DePaul - we've beaten them, and they're the number 1 seed in the Big East, which doesn't dazzle.
That leaves A&M. They're the 4 seed in the SEC, so have a first round bye. They'll probably play a good Arkansas team in the second round. If they win that one, they play South Carolina and go home. So is their potential win against Arkansas enough to offset our win against Washington State?
Once again, I doubt it. The committee will continue to recognize just how ridiculously strong the PAC 12 is. I'd say there's about a 65 to 70% chance that one win leaves us as a 4, and 2 wins would make it 100%. Who knows? Three wins make us a 3? Don't think that's gonna happen, but nice to dream a bit.
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Post by baseba1111 on Mar 2, 2020 23:24:55 GMT -8
I looked it up. The projected 5 seeds (by Charlie Creme) are Princeton, Texas A&M, DePaul, and Missouri State. Princeton , even if they win the Ivy tournament, isn't going to displace a top 20 team that lost to a top 10 team. Beating other Ivy League teams just isn't going to impress the committee. Missouri State (who we have beaten) is the number 1 seed in the Missouri Valley Conference - other than Drake, pretty weak field. If they don't win their tourney, they might drop. If they do win it, is that enough? Their RPI is already very high, so that's factored in to their current 5 seed nationally. I don't think they can displace us. Ditto DePaul - we've beaten them, and they're the number 1 seed in the Big East, which doesn't dazzle. That leaves A&M. They're the 4 seed in the SEC, so have a first round bye. They'll probably play a good Arkansas team in the second round. If they win that one, they play South Carolina and go home. So is their potential win against Arkansas enough to offset our win against Washington State? Once again, I doubt it. The committee will continue to recognize just how ridiculously strong the PAC 12 is. I'd say there's about a 65 to 70% chance that one win leaves us as a 4, and 2 wins would make it 100%. Who knows? Three wins make us a 3? Don't think that's gonna happen, but nice to dream a bit. Unfortunately you're not the committee. They've made nonsense out of the obvious before. Winning a conference tournament is given credence, just as a team's last 10. It's all taken into account especially when placing teams/conferences in brackets. Believe me, they can make excuses for any ridiculous decisions they make. My point OSU controls its own destiny, win at least 2. Being ranked in the top 5-10 most of the season, losing 8 league games, beating an obviously inferior team then going 0-3 vs Furd doesn't look good. And shouting how good the Pac12 is won't help. They already have 4 Pac12 teams basically assured if hosting. Plenty to some? Princeton actually has a very high RPI at #11. OSU does have pros with attendance and recent history. |
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Post by bvrbooster on Mar 2, 2020 23:33:37 GMT -8
Well, I'm sure we both hope I'm right and you're wrong, and hope even more that we beat Stanford and make the whole discussion moot.
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Mar 3, 2020 13:33:36 GMT -8
Will be interesting to see if the Cougars have their starting point guard Chanelle Molina back in the lineup on Thursday. No official word as yet on the extent of her apparent knee injury that was sustained during warmups on Sunday at Gill.
The Beavs' task of winning its opener gets more difficult if the eldest Molina sister is available to play on Thursday. Molina is shifty and crafty.
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Post by skyrider on Mar 3, 2020 16:02:58 GMT -8
Will be interesting to see if the Cougars have their starting point guard Chanelle Molina back in the lineup on Thursday. No official word as yet on the extent of her apparent knee injury that was sustained during warmups on Sunday at Gill. The Beavs' task of winning its opener gets more difficult if the eldest Molina sister is available to play on Thursday. Molina is shifty and crafty. My question is "Can the Beavers beat anyone this in a blowout?". In conference game after conference game even among the lower echelon teams, this team seemingly is not able to ever get ahead significantly in the first half and when they do get ahead by a decent margin in the second half they often allow the other team to come back and close the gap. I guess the reality is that without Corsdale and Brown they are a middle range PAC 12 team.
If that is the case, they are going to have to be at their 100% best to beat WSU. Clearly watching the recent games, all the PAC 12 teams seem to feel they have an excellent chance of (a) staying close and (b) beating the Beavers at the end of the game.
Go Beavs.
P.S. It would be great if Kat Tudor could get going again. That injury clearly has done something detrimental to her 3 point shooting.
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Mar 3, 2020 17:05:43 GMT -8
Will be interesting to see if the Cougars have their starting point guard Chanelle Molina back in the lineup on Thursday. No official word as yet on the extent of her apparent knee injury that was sustained during warmups on Sunday at Gill. The Beavs' task of winning its opener gets more difficult if the eldest Molina sister is available to play on Thursday. Molina is shifty and crafty. My question is "Can the Beavers beat anyone this in a blowout?". In conference game after conference game even among the lower echelon teams, this team seemingly is not able to ever get ahead significantly in the first half and when they do get ahead by a decent margin in the second half they often allow the other team to come back and close the gap. I guess the reality is that without Corsdale and Brown they are a middle range PAC 12 team.
If that is the case, they are going to have to be at their 100% best to beat WSU. Clearly watching the recent games, all the PAC 12 teams seem to feel they have an excellent chance of (a) staying close and (b) beating the Beavers at the end of the game.
Go Beavs.
P.S. It would be great if Kat Tudor could get going again. That injury clearly has done something detrimental to her 3 point shooting.
I'll take any kind of win. Don't need a blowout win. The Beavs blew out a few teams in conference play this year. Utah at Gill. Cal at Gill. Colorado on the road. All of those were 20+point blowouts and basically over by halftime. The PAC-12 is a tough conference with six Top-25 teams. Not a lot of easy wins among OSU's 11 opponents. That may prove to be helpful in the final two tournaments of the season. Many of the other top PAC-12 teams, with the exception of Oregon, were fortunate not to have several additional losses to lower echelon conference teams this season. |
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Post by blastingsand on Mar 3, 2020 18:56:03 GMT -8
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Mar 4, 2020 16:21:42 GMT -8
Will be interesting to see if the Cougars have their starting point guard Chanelle Molina back in the lineup on Thursday. No official word as yet on the extent of her apparent knee injury that was sustained during warmups on Sunday at Gill. The Beavs' task of winning its opener gets more difficult if the eldest Molina sister is available to play on Thursday. Molina is shifty and crafty. Cougs head coach states today that "there is a good chance" that Chanelle Molina is a go for tomorrow's opener. |
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Post by jegerklog on Mar 4, 2020 17:18:41 GMT -8
The Beavers could use a relatively easy win Thursday night because they have to turn around to play a rested Stanford team at more or less full strength. If Chanelle Molina plays tomorrow night, WSU will probably require the Beaver's full attention to win.
By the way, there was once an impression that the Beavers could get a break on hosting the first two NCAA games because the NCAA could count on a good crowd ($$$). Is that a factor? was it ever a factor?
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Post by bvrbooster on Mar 4, 2020 20:33:24 GMT -8
I think it's a factor. The women's game seems to be getting more attention the last few years, and tournament attendance has been stronger. Last thing they want is a national tv audience seeing a venue with thousands of empty seats. Don't think it's a huge factor - they wouldn't compromise their integrity to produce a desirable result. But, if all things were pretty much equal between us and a team that doesn't draw all that well, I believe they'd choose us.
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