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Post by touchdown on Mar 2, 2020 11:06:47 GMT -8
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Post by beaverstever on Mar 2, 2020 11:48:23 GMT -8
That worked out as well as possible, IMO. Avoid ASU, UA and UO until final. Get WSU in first round that feels like a matchup that is unlikely as any to go sideways, then get Stanford that has barely got us twice ... very difficult to beat a team 3 times that's playing evenly matched games. Then get UCLA who also seems pretty evenly matched and feels like a 50/50 game.
IMO, we only need 1 win now to get a 4 seed, as I don't think the selection committee puts a lot of weight into the conference tournament games. But obviously much better to be safe and get a couple more marquee wins.
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Post by sewingbeaver on Mar 2, 2020 13:11:57 GMT -8
Let's bring home trophy and cut the net!
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Post by baseba1111 on Mar 2, 2020 15:28:07 GMT -8
That worked out as well as possible, IMO. Avoid ASU, UA and UO until final. Get WSU in first round that feels like a matchup that is unlikely as any to go sideways, then get Stanford that has barely got us twice ... very difficult to beat a team 3 times that's playing evenly matched games. Then get UCLA who also seems pretty evenly matched and feels like a 50/50 game. IMO, we only need 1 win now to get a 4 seed, as I don't think the selection committee puts a lot of weight into the conference tournament games. But obviously much better to be safe and get a couple more marquee wins. So... I've seen this posted several times on here and I'm not sure if those believe it or just not researched it? Of course it depends on the sport (baseball sweeps are far more difficult with pitching changes etc). Talent level is key, as the best talent/depth has the advantage no matter the scores of the two previous games. But, research I've seen... lastly on a posted Twitter feed, team that's 2-0 in college hoops wins the 3rd 72% of the time. NFL its 65%. So... no, it's not hard to go 3-0 in reality. And, Furd will even be deeper with injured getting more minutes and team acclimated to them. |
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Post by beaverstever on Mar 2, 2020 16:33:59 GMT -8
That worked out as well as possible, IMO. Avoid ASU, UA and UO until final. Get WSU in first round that feels like a matchup that is unlikely as any to go sideways, then get Stanford that has barely got us twice ... very difficult to beat a team 3 times that's playing evenly matched games. Then get UCLA who also seems pretty evenly matched and feels like a 50/50 game. IMO, we only need 1 win now to get a 4 seed, as I don't think the selection committee puts a lot of weight into the conference tournament games. But obviously much better to be safe and get a couple more marquee wins. So... I've seen this posted several times on here and I'm not sure if those believe it or just not researched it? Of course it depends on the sport (baseball sweeps are far more difficult with pitching changes etc). Talent level is key, as the best talent/depth has the advantage no matter the scores of the two previous games. But, research I've seen... lastly on a posted Twitter feed, team that's 2-0 in college hoops wins the 3rd 72% of the time. NFL its 65%. So... no, it's not hard to go 3-0 in reality. And, Furd will even be deeper with injured getting more minutes and team acclimated to them. I've seen some stats from the NFL where a 2-0 teams lost 13-7 in the 3rd match. In general, the 72% stat includes all matches, not just closely-matched teams. The adage comes from the idea that if you say at the beginning of the season two teams are an even match, the odds of one team going 3-0 are quite low. Of course, for one game, those odds are just for that one game again. I think it also depends on if a team has some mental edge (.e.g one team believes it's got the other team's number, the other team is feeling owned). For this reason, I would feel much better about that 'hard to beat 3 times' number vs. Stanford vs. ASU, even though Stanford is the better team. But outside of a statistical view from the start of the season, I agree there's probably not a lot of evidence that it's true ... but I'm hoping the team believes it is  |
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