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Post by baseba1111 on Dec 16, 2019 16:25:51 GMT -8
It now has us at #73 in RPI at season's end. I just ran the Warren Nolan predicted RPI. Oregon State finished 10-8 in conference and 21-9 overall to finish with an RPI of 53. Something is wrong about the SOS predictor for your ranking or Warren Nolan's ranking. They are off by 26 spots. I feel better about Oregon State's chances, if they can finish with a top 75 SOS. Yeah, I certainly can't speak to which rating is close to correct. Baseba11 is right, these things are highly flawed at this point of the season. Last time I looked at Warren Nolan (it's been a while) they hadn't updated their site for this season. No doubt because the ratings are so screw-ball early on in the season that there's no point. Winning does fix everything. 75 SOS seems likely by the end of the season. Pac-12 is the #4 RPI conference. Pick up a couple road wins and defend Gill in conference and I like our chances. The other factor MANY people forget, don't realize, is that there are not 68 bids to the "Dance". There are 32 automatic bids, leaving only 36 at-large berths spread out among the remaining teams. Those 36 other bids are very tough to get the more conference upsets there are for the auto bid. Meaning a team that would likely not have drawn an auto berth. When a league... two, three... start getting 5, 6, 7 berths over their auto berth those 36 get filled fast. If the Pac12 remains the 4th rated (or lower) conference I do not see it getting more than 5 total bids. Meaning the overall resume and getting to the final two days of the Pac12 tournament is vital. For OSU the resume will suck unless they have a great conference season. I would think OSU needs a combo of 12-13 wins... league and tournament... to feel good about a berth?!
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Dec 16, 2019 16:31:48 GMT -8
Yeah, I certainly can't speak to which rating is close to correct. Baseba11 is right, these things are highly flawed at this point of the season. Last time I looked at Warren Nolan (it's been a while) they hadn't updated their site for this season. No doubt because the ratings are so screw-ball early on in the season that there's no point. Winning does fix everything. 75 SOS seems likely by the end of the season. Pac-12 is the #4 RPI conference. Pick up a couple road wins and defend Gill in conference and I like our chances. The other factor MANY people forget, don't realize, is that there are not 68 bids to the "Dance". There are 32 automatic bids, leaving only 36 at-large berths spread out among the remaining teams. Those 36 other bids are very tough to get the more conference upsets there are for the auto bid. Meaning a team that would likely not have drawn an auto berth. When a league... two, three... start getting 5, 6, 7 berths over their auto berth those 36 get filled fast. If the Pac12 remains the 4th rated (or lower) conference I do not see it getting more than 5 total bids. Meaning the overall resume and getting to the final two days of the Pac12 tournament is vital. For OSU the resume will suck unless they have a great conference season. I would think OSU needs a combo of 12-13 wins... league and tournament... to feel good about a berth?! The unfortunate thing is outside of uo, the conference doesn't have any real marquee wins in non-conference play so far. The conference as a whole is doing a much better job of taking care of business, but I think other than uo beating Seton Hall and Michigan the conference has lost every other match-up against current top 25 teams. So while the conference is better as a whole, and I think could deserve 6-7 bids as the top 6-7 teams all appear worthy, without some key wins the conference is still going to be seen as 4th, 5th, or 6th best. There are a few games left but I do not have high hopes for most of them. EDIT: I forgot that UW did beat Baylor early on, which is looking better as BU keeps winning and is now a top 10 team in the AP poll.
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Post by beaversproud on Dec 19, 2019 22:38:10 GMT -8
The other factor MANY people forget, don't realize, is that there are not 68 bids to the "Dance". There are 32 automatic bids, leaving only 36 at-large berths spread out among the remaining teams. Those 36 other bids are very tough to get the more conference upsets there are for the auto bid. Meaning a team that would likely not have drawn an auto berth. When a league... two, three... start getting 5, 6, 7 berths over their auto berth those 36 get filled fast. If the Pac12 remains the 4th rated (or lower) conference I do not see it getting more than 5 total bids. Meaning the overall resume and getting to the final two days of the Pac12 tournament is vital. For OSU the resume will suck unless they have a great conference season. I would think OSU needs a combo of 12-13 wins... league and tournament... to feel good about a berth?! The unfortunate thing is outside of uo, the conference doesn't have any real marquee wins in non-conference play so far. The conference as a whole is doing a much better job of taking care of business, but I think other than uo beating Seton Hall and Michigan the conference has lost every other match-up against current top 25 teams. So while the conference is better as a whole, and I think could deserve 6-7 bids as the top 6-7 teams all appear worthy, without some key wins the conference is still going to be seen as 4th, 5th, or 6th best. There are a few games left but I do not have high hopes for most of them. EDIT: I forgot that UW did beat Baylor early on, which is looking better as BU keeps winning and is now a top 10 team in the AP poll. Utah Kentucky
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Post by beaversproud on Dec 19, 2019 22:48:53 GMT -8
we should have a running thread on the popular rankings of OSU and Pac-12. you know, someone with time on their hands
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