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Post by beaverbeliever71 on Dec 16, 2019 9:47:58 GMT -8
Even if Beavers win next 3, I'm guessing they fall in the rankings given that their games are against North Dakota (246), UTSA (270) and Texas A&M (281). Perhaps but if they do win next 3 games 2 of those 3 would be road wins(UTSA technically neutral court) including a win over an SEC team.. lower end SEC team.. but would still be road wins.. so i dont think they would fall to far but i don't know how they calculate the NET rankings so who knows |
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Dec 16, 2019 9:49:58 GMT -8
Other things of note, 7 Pac-12 teams in the top 40, including Stanford at #9 somehow. UA at 15, uo at 17, ASU at 30, Colorado at 31, UW at 35, and OSU at 40.
Oklahoma and ISU at 37 and 82 respectively.
No other OSU non-conference opponent higher than 181 (UCSB).
I would expect ISU and A&M (281!!!) to improve some as the season goes along, but I don't know if I see our SOS improving much anywhere else unless we get a couple of upsets from our non-conference opponents.
The good news is the rest of the conference has a much better SOS and playing conference opponents should give us an immediate boost in that regard. Win a couple early on to get some early recognition and we'll be seeing OSU mentioned in the tourney conversation all winter long.
The lowest ranked Pac-12 team is Cal at 182, much better than last year. There are only 3 teams ranked below 100 this year (WSU, UCLA, Cal) versus I think 5-7 teams at different points last year.
I would be happy with winning the next three games and splitting the first four conference games (@utah, @cu, ASU, UA) at 2-2 and seeing where that puts us. 13-3 (2-2) I would think would look OK for the middle of January before hitting some "easier" games towards the middle of Pac-12 play.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Dec 16, 2019 9:51:56 GMT -8
Even if Beavers win next 3, I'm guessing they fall in the rankings given that their games are against North Dakota (246), UTSA (270) and Texas A&M (281). Perhaps but if they do win next 3 games 2 of those 3 would be road wins(UTSA technically neutral court) including a win over an SEC team.. lower end SEC team.. but would still be road wins.. so i dont think they would fall to far but i don't know how they calculate the NET rankings so who knows Road wins when adjusted for being on the road count as 1.4 wins in one portion of the algorithm. So just playing on the road even if the opponent is not that strong is helpful. On the flip side, if we drop a home game it counts as 1.4 losses so good to see we haven't dropped any of those yet this year. Neutral court games count as 1, win or lose. |
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Post by ag87 on Dec 16, 2019 9:54:19 GMT -8
Even if Beavers win next 3, I'm guessing they fall in the rankings given that their games are against North Dakota (246), UTSA (270) and Texas A&M (281). Because I was curious, I checked out the KenPom rankings. North Dakota 250, UTSA 210, and TexasA&M 161 (last in the SEC, #13 Vandy is 129) Pac12 as of now, duks 12, Ariz 15, Colorado 42, Stanford 48, Washington 50, OSU 61, ASU 67, USC 68, Utah 107, UCLA 115, Wazzu 136, and Cal 187. Also, Oklahoma 40, IowaState 47. He is projecting Oklahoma at 18-13 and Iowa State at 16-14. |
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Post by beavheart on Dec 16, 2019 10:08:51 GMT -8
Even if Beavers win next 3, I'm guessing they fall in the rankings given that their games are against North Dakota (246), UTSA (270) and Texas A&M (281). but the silver lining is if those teams beat the beavs their rankings will go up, thus helping the beavs SOS. SO THERE'S THAT. Funny. Seriously though, the NET rankings ARE the silver lining. A big upgrade over the RPI (OSU currently #113). The PRI predictor has us losing at TA&M. It also has us having a craptastic conference season where we lose all of our road games, and drop a couple at home. Hope that thing is wrong! It has us finishing at #68, and 18-12 on the season. It'll be hard to put a silver lining around that one... Grey Cloud |
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Post by bennyskid on Dec 16, 2019 10:24:20 GMT -8
Massey has us at #55, 77% chance of beating A&M, and projecting a 19.5-10.5 season. Seems in line with what we've all seen. We need to take it up a notch to make the tourney but we're not far off.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Dec 16, 2019 10:30:21 GMT -8
Massey has us at #55, 77% chance of beating A&M, and projecting a 19.5-10.5 season. Seems in line with what we've all seen. We need to take it up a notch to make the tourney but we're not far off. ESPN's BPI is similar. They have us going 19.9-10.1 and 9.5-8.5 in conference. That RPI prediction of getting steamrolled in conference play seems to be the outlier. |
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Post by baseba1111 on Dec 16, 2019 11:27:23 GMT -8
Even if Beavers win next 3, I'm guessing they fall in the rankings given that their games are against North Dakota (246), UTSA (270) and Texas A&M (281). NCAA early NET rankings are highly flawed... if anyone thing Furd is a #9 ranked team in anything?? The key is future opponents and wins. Once Pac12 teams begin to beat up one another the rankings become more accurate. And, again unless a team is above .500 with a couple Pac12 tourney wins (especially the first one if against a lower seed/NET ranked team) they will not be dancing. Unless of course 6-7 teams are chosen which is highly unlikely, but?? Those NET ranking that use predictive measures have OSU in the mid 70's, and the 6th team in the Pac12. Actually better than the NCAA which has OSU as the 7th Pac12 team. With the weak arse schedule remaining the SOS is not going anywhere but down. The biggest jump OSU can hope for is if one of their opponents upset people. The SOS can take 30, 40 point leap in those indirect "impact games". OSU's 'live' RPI is 100, up one over last 2 days. Indirect impact game tonight: Santa Barbra vs Idaho St... +25 if SB wins... -31. On Warren Nolan OSU's predictive RPI jumped 20 points over two nights of play and their conference finish from a 3 way tie for 6th (9-9) with the lowest RPI, to 6th alone (10-8). Although OSU still stands as the 7th best team in the predicted NET in the 4th rated conference, as the predicted NC SOS will stay in the 340+ range. It's pretty easy... WIN. Can't lose any remaining NC games. Have to be 10-8 and get two Pac12 tourney wins... hope one or two NC opponents get some upsets and NCAA takes at least 5 teams. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2019 11:39:46 GMT -8
Even if Beavers win next 3, I'm guessing they fall in the rankings given that their games are against North Dakota (246), UTSA (270) and Texas A&M (281). NCAA early NET rankings are highly flawed... if anyone thing Furd is a #9 ranked team in anything?? The key is future opponents and wins. Once Pac12 teams begin to beat up one another the rankings become more accurate. And, again unless a team is above .500 with a couple Pac12 tourney wins (especially the first one if against a lower seed/NET ranked team) they will not be dancing. Unless of course 6-7 teams are chosen which is highly unlikely, but?? Those NET ranking that use predictive measures have OSU in the mid 70's, and the 6th team in the Pac12. Actually better than the NCAA which has OSU as the 7th Pac12 team. With the weak arse schedule remaining the SOS is not going anywhere but down. The biggest jump OSU can hope for is if one of their opponents upset people. The SOS can take 30, 40 point leap in those indirect "impact games". OSU's 'live' RPI is 100, up one over last 2 days. Indirect impact game tonight: Santa Barbra vs Idaho St... +25 if SB wins... -31. On Warren Nolan OSU's predictive RPI jumped 20 points over two nights of play and their conference finish from a 3 way tie for 6th (9-9) with the lowest RPI, to 6th alone (10-8). Although OSU still stands as the 7th best team in the predicted NET in the 4th rated conference, as the predicted NC SOS will stay in the 340+ range. It's pretty easy... WIN. Can't lose any remaining NC games. Have to be 10-8 and get two Pac12 tourney wins... hope one or two NC opponents get some upsets and NCAA takes at least 5 teams. The pac 12 is starting to come into focus and not only is Stanford completely sweepable so is UCLA WAzzu, SC, and Cal. UCLA has major problems with shooting. It's unbelievable the recruiting mistakes they have made. Wazzue is just a cipher. SC is talented offensively but not in the halfcourt game, play D and the beavs can win in both places because they have a morgue for a home court. Cal has 5 losses already and is thin up top. Why should we expect beavs to lose so many home games and let teams that dont have nearly the experience or a Tres Tinkle to come in and win at Gill? |
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Post by beaverbeliever71 on Dec 16, 2019 11:57:07 GMT -8
NCAA early NET rankings are highly flawed... if anyone thing Furd is a #9 ranked team in anything?? The key is future opponents and wins. Once Pac12 teams begin to beat up one another the rankings become more accurate. And, again unless a team is above .500 with a couple Pac12 tourney wins (especially the first one if against a lower seed/NET ranked team) they will not be dancing. Unless of course 6-7 teams are chosen which is highly unlikely, but?? Those NET ranking that use predictive measures have OSU in the mid 70's, and the 6th team in the Pac12. Actually better than the NCAA which has OSU as the 7th Pac12 team. With the weak arse schedule remaining the SOS is not going anywhere but down. The biggest jump OSU can hope for is if one of their opponents upset people. The SOS can take 30, 40 point leap in those indirect "impact games". OSU's 'live' RPI is 100, up one over last 2 days. Indirect impact game tonight: Santa Barbra vs Idaho St... +25 if SB wins... -31. On Warren Nolan OSU's predictive RPI jumped 20 points over two nights of play and their conference finish from a 3 way tie for 6th (9-9) with the lowest RPI, to 6th alone (10-8). Although OSU still stands as the 7th best team in the predicted NET in the 4th rated conference, as the predicted NC SOS will stay in the 340+ range. It's pretty easy... WIN. Can't lose any remaining NC games. Have to be 10-8 and get two Pac12 tourney wins... hope one or two NC opponents get some upsets and NCAA takes at least 5 teams. The pac 12 is starting to come into focus and not only is Stanford completely sweepable so is UCLA WAzzu, SC, and Cal. UCLA has major problems with shooting. It's unbelievable the recruiting mistakes they have made. Wazzue is just a cipher. SC is talented offensively but not in the halfcourt game, play D and the beavs can win in both places because they have a morgue for a home court. Cal has 5 losses already and is thin up top. Why should we expect beavs to lose so many home games and let teams that dont have nearly the experience or a Tres Tinkle to come in and win at Gill? Ralph Miller used to say every season before conference play.. was to win every home game and get as many as you could on the road.. do that and you'll usually have a pretty good season |
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Dec 16, 2019 12:29:01 GMT -8
NCAA early NET rankings are highly flawed... if anyone thing Furd is a #9 ranked team in anything?? The key is future opponents and wins. Once Pac12 teams begin to beat up one another the rankings become more accurate. And, again unless a team is above .500 with a couple Pac12 tourney wins (especially the first one if against a lower seed/NET ranked team) they will not be dancing. Unless of course 6-7 teams are chosen which is highly unlikely, but?? Those NET ranking that use predictive measures have OSU in the mid 70's, and the 6th team in the Pac12. Actually better than the NCAA which has OSU as the 7th Pac12 team. With the weak arse schedule remaining the SOS is not going anywhere but down. The biggest jump OSU can hope for is if one of their opponents upset people. The SOS can take 30, 40 point leap in those indirect "impact games". OSU's 'live' RPI is 100, up one over last 2 days. Indirect impact game tonight: Santa Barbra vs Idaho St... +25 if SB wins... -31. On Warren Nolan OSU's predictive RPI jumped 20 points over two nights of play and their conference finish from a 3 way tie for 6th (9-9) with the lowest RPI, to 6th alone (10-8). Although OSU still stands as the 7th best team in the predicted NET in the 4th rated conference, as the predicted NC SOS will stay in the 340+ range. It's pretty easy... WIN. Can't lose any remaining NC games. Have to be 10-8 and get two Pac12 tourney wins... hope one or two NC opponents get some upsets and NCAA takes at least 5 teams. The pac 12 is starting to come into focus and not only is Stanford completely sweepable so is UCLA WAzzu, SC, and Cal. UCLA has major problems with shooting. It's unbelievable the recruiting mistakes they have made. Wazzue is just a cipher. SC is talented offensively but not in the halfcourt game, play D and the beavs can win in both places because they have a morgue for a home court. Cal has 5 losses already and is thin up top. Why should we expect beavs to lose so many home games and let teams that dont have nearly the experience or a Tres Tinkle to come in and win at Gill? Well OSU only plays UCLA, USC, and WSU once this year which from a SOS perspective is helpful, but does mean we have one of the tougher conference slates to navigate. I think come March if we're looking for an at-large bid that will actually help as we have more opportunities for resume building wins and less of a chance for resume killing losses. Agree though that wins over those three are absolute musts as well as a sweep of Cal. I could live with splitting Stanford if their 9-1 record is any indication of how good they may be this season. P.S. What happened to bl0cheese? He get axed or did he accidentally troll himself too hard and delete his own account? P.S.S. Figured it out by looking at the football board. Carry on. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 16, 2019 13:17:10 GMT -8
but the silver lining is if those teams beat the beavs their rankings will go up, thus helping the beavs SOS. SO THERE'S THAT. Funny. Seriously though, the NET rankings ARE the silver lining. A big upgrade over the RPI (OSU currently #113). The PRI predictor has us losing at TA&M. It also has us having a craptastic conference season where we lose all of our road games, and drop a couple at home. Hope that thing is wrong! It has us finishing at #68, and 18-12 on the season. It'll be hard to put a silver lining around that one... Grey CloudIt now has us at #73 in RPI at season's end. I just ran the Warren Nolan predicted RPI. Oregon State finished 10-8 in conference and 21-9 overall to finish with an RPI of 53. Something is wrong about the SOS predictor for your ranking or Warren Nolan's ranking. They are off by 26 spots. I feel better about Oregon State's chances, if they can finish with a top 75 SOS. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 16, 2019 14:00:46 GMT -8
Even if Beavers win next 3, I'm guessing they fall in the rankings given that their games are against North Dakota (246), UTSA (270) and Texas A&M (281). NCAA early NET rankings are highly flawed... if anyone thing Furd is a #9 ranked team in anything?? The key is future opponents and wins. Once Pac12 teams begin to beat up one another the rankings become more accurate. And, again unless a team is above .500 with a couple Pac12 tourney wins (especially the first one if against a lower seed/NET ranked team) they will not be dancing. Unless of course 6-7 teams are chosen which is highly unlikely, but?? Those NET ranking that use predictive measures have OSU in the mid 70's, and the 6th team in the Pac12. Actually better than the NCAA which has OSU as the 7th Pac12 team. With the weak arse schedule remaining the SOS is not going anywhere but down. The biggest jump OSU can hope for is if one of their opponents upset people. The SOS can take 30, 40 point leap in those indirect "impact games". OSU's 'live' RPI is 100, up one over last 2 days. Indirect impact game tonight: Santa Barbra vs Idaho St... +25 if SB wins... -31. On Warren Nolan OSU's predictive RPI jumped 20 points over two nights of play and their conference finish from a 3 way tie for 6th (9-9) with the lowest RPI, to 6th alone (10-8). Although OSU still stands as the 7th best team in the predicted NET in the 4th rated conference, as the predicted NC SOS will stay in the 340+ range. It's pretty easy... WIN. Can't lose any remaining NC games. Have to be 10-8 and get two Pac12 tourney wins... hope one or two NC opponents get some upsets and NCAA takes at least 5 teams. The NET shows the Pac-12 as a seven-bid conference at this point with Oregon State #7. #40 New Mexico State won the WAC Tournament in 2019. #39 Baylor was a nine-seed. #42 Syracuse was an eight-seed. (The teams played each other in Salt Lake City with the lower-seeded but higher-NET Bears winning 78-69 to advance to play Gonzaga.) I do not believe that anyone has cracked NET to do anything approaching predicting what NET will be going forward, not even NET SOS. If someone has cracked those, please let me know. Warren Nolan's predicted non-conference RPI SOS is 347th. As far as NET ranking, Oregon State's NET SOS is 312th. It appears to me that margin of victory, which is a NET factor, is driving Oregon State up (or driving other teams down). That is capped at 10 points, but the Beavers have won by more than 10 points in six of nine games. The only games that have been within 10 are the win against Iowa State, the win against Portland State, and the loss to Oklahoma. Duquesne and Liberty are the only two teams with a worse SOS in the top 80 of NET. Both are undefeated and, as a result, are ranked ahead of Oregon State. The Beavers' SOS is set to go down over the next three games. However, two of those are on the road, which can be worth as much as 80 spots in NET ranking. As a result, you may see Oregon State climb the NET rankings with two 10+ point road wins, even as SOS drops. (Oregon State's NET probably goes up with a 10+ point in Houston. I am not sure that the same is true at College Station.) North Dakota is probably a NET ranking loser no matter what. As far as predictions, 21-9 entering the Pac-12 Tournament is probably on the bubble out at this point. The Beavers need to get to 22 wins before the Pac-12 Tournament to feel great about their chances of making the Tournament via an at-large berth, considering the lackluster non-conference slate. We should know more in two weeks though. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 16, 2019 14:11:44 GMT -8
Even if Beavers win next 3, I'm guessing they fall in the rankings given that their games are against North Dakota (246), UTSA (270) and Texas A&M (281). Perhaps but if they do win next 3 games 2 of those 3 would be road wins(UTSA technically neutral court) including a win over an SEC team.. lower end SEC team.. but would still be road wins.. so i dont think they would fall to far but i don't know how they calculate the NET rankings so who knows I believe that there is something along the lines of a 60-80 spot juice for playing a team on the road, rather than at home. Playing UTSA on the road (I believe that it will count as a road game, rather than a neutral site game) is like playing a team ranked 190-210 at home. Win by 10+ points, NET ranking probably gets better. Texas A&M on the road is like playing a team ranked 201-221. Win by 10+ points, I am not sure that the NET ranking improves. North Dakota is ranked ahead of A&M and UTSA, but is in Corvallis, so the NET ranking should go down win or lose and regardless of the margin. (Obviously, winning, losing, and margin will determine how far the NET ranking will go down.) |
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Post by beavheart on Dec 16, 2019 15:01:08 GMT -8
Funny. Seriously though, the NET rankings ARE the silver lining. A big upgrade over the RPI (OSU currently #113). The PRI predictor has us losing at TA&M. It also has us having a craptastic conference season where we lose all of our road games, and drop a couple at home. Hope that thing is wrong! It has us finishing at #68, and 18-12 on the season. It'll be hard to put a silver lining around that one... Grey CloudIt now has us at #73 in RPI at season's end. I just ran the Warren Nolan predicted RPI. Oregon State finished 10-8 in conference and 21-9 overall to finish with an RPI of 53. Something is wrong about the SOS predictor for your ranking or Warren Nolan's ranking. They are off by 26 spots. I feel better about Oregon State's chances, if they can finish with a top 75 SOS. Yeah, I certainly can't speak to which rating is close to correct. Baseba11 is right, these things are highly flawed at this point of the season. Last time I looked at Warren Nolan (it's been a while) they hadn't updated their site for this season. No doubt because the ratings are so screw-ball early on in the season that there's no point. Winning does fix everything. 75 SOS seems likely by the end of the season. Pac-12 is the #4 RPI conference. Pick up a couple road wins and defend Gill in conference and I like our chances. |
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