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Post by Werebeaver on Apr 8, 2019 6:46:56 GMT -8
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Apr 8, 2019 7:20:57 GMT -8
Five teams in the Top 11. Seven teams in the Top 25. Conference play within the PAC-12 will get you ready for the postseason. Or...it will keep your team out of postseason play.
Massey's Methods (from Wikipedia):
Massey, unlike the developers of other sports rating systems, gives quite a lot of information on how his system works, but omits enough details to prevent someone from copying the calculations in their entirety. The Massey Ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes. The first challenge for any computer rating system is to account for the variability in performance. A team will not always play up to its full potential. Other random factors (officiating, bounce of the ball) may also affect the outcome of a game. The model must somehow eliminate the "noise" which obscures the true strength of a team. The second goal is to account for the differences in schedule. When there is a large disparity in schedule strength, win-loss records lose their significance. The model must evaluate games involving mismatched opponents, as well as contests between well matched teams. It is necessary to achieve a reasonable balance between rewarding teams for wins, convincing wins, and playing a tough schedule. This issue is difficult to resolve, and rating systems exist that are based on each of the extremes. The overall team rating is a merit based quantity, and is the result of applying a Bayesian win-loss correction to the power rating. Only the score, venue, and date of each game are used to calculate the Massey ratings. Overtime games are not treated any differently. Finally, neither injuries nor psychological factors like motivation are considered.
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Apr 8, 2019 11:17:29 GMT -8
According to Massey there is no comparison as to which conference is the best.
Top 10 for our Beavers is a really good result for this team. Next year we should be even better.
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Post by kersting13 on Apr 8, 2019 13:06:10 GMT -8
Five teams in the Top 11. Seven teams in the Top 25. Conference play within the PAC-12 will get you ready for the postseason. Or...it will keep your team out of postseason play. Massey's Methods (from Wikipedia):Massey, unlike the developers of other sports rating systems, gives quite a lot of information on how his system works, but omits enough details to prevent someone from copying the calculations in their entirety. The Massey Ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes. The first challenge for any computer rating system is to account for the variability in performance. A team will not always play up to its full potential. Other random factors (officiating, bounce of the ball) may also affect the outcome of a game. The model must somehow eliminate the "noise" which obscures the true strength of a team. The second goal is to account for the differences in schedule. When there is a large disparity in schedule strength, win-loss records lose their significance. The model must evaluate games involving mismatched opponents, as well as contests between well matched teams. It is necessary to achieve a reasonable balance between rewarding teams for wins, convincing wins, and playing a tough schedule. This issue is difficult to resolve, and rating systems exist that are based on each of the extremes. The overall team rating is a merit based quantity, and is the result of applying a Bayesian win-loss correction to the power rating. Only the score, venue, and date of each game are used to calculate the Massey ratings. Overtime games are not treated any differently. Finally, neither injuries nor psychological factors like motivation are considered. Seems to me the only way to eliminate "noise" in the data is to introduce a lot of human element into the data. I mean, in a REAL basketball game, it's a zero sum game. You either win (100% good) or you lose (100% bad). If you lose a closely contested game on a buzzer-beater 3-pointer, the reality of the situation in determining which team is better is much closer to 50/50. Scores can't be the only basis for evaluation. Not all 5-point losses are created equal. There's the 5-point-loss where the winning team was in control the entire game, and scrubs allowed the losing team to draw 8 points closer in the final minute, then there's the 5-point loss where the LOSING team was in control the entire game, and a late collapse led to a very close defeat. With enough data points, you can eliminate a lot of the noise, but I can't imagine that a 30 game basketball season is a large enough sample size to do that, especially considering the variations in the talent level of the opposition. |
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