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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 6, 2019 22:37:51 GMT -8
Oregon State has lost three straight and is now 9-8. The Beavers were guaranteed at least a four seed with a win over Washington. With the loss, Oregon State needs help.
Tomorrow, there are three Pac-12 games:
UCLA @ Colorado @ 6:00 PM PT
USC @ Utah @ 7:00 PM PT
California @ Stanford @ 8:00 PM PT
The big games for the four seed are the first two. Oregon State needs one (ideally) or both of Colorado and USC to win. The best scenario would involve UCLA and USC both winning. However, if the Bruins win, the Beavers will absolutely need the Trojans to win, or it will need to win and for UCLA to win on Saturday in Salt Lake City.
If the Buffs win the opener, the Utes winning would be a positive rather than the negative it would otherwise be. If Colorado or USC win (but not both), it would help Oregon State's cause, if California beat Stanford. If both UCLA and Utah win or both lose, the California-Stanford will be irrelevant to determining which team will win the fourth seed. (However, the California-Stanford game may determine other lower seeds.)
If Colorado or USC or both win, Oregon State-Washington State will be a win and you're in situation for the Beavers.
Currently, Oregon State is in 5th-place and would play #12 California. The winner would then play #4 UCLA. The 1-8-9 seeds are currently Washington-USC-Arizona.
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Post by bennysdentist on Mar 7, 2019 19:52:07 GMT -8
OK, Wilky, my head hurts. Looks like buffs will beat ucla, utes leading sc. who do I pull for?
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 7, 2019 20:35:52 GMT -8
OK, Wilky, my head hurts. Looks like buffs will beat ucla, utes leading sc. who do I pull for? Colorado won, so, if Oregon State beats Washington State, the Beavers are guaranteed at least a four seed. It would help, if Utah won. If Utah wins, pull for California. If USC wins, the California-Stanford game does not matter with regards to top four tiebreakers. California winning would help all tiebreakers, though, so probably pull for the Bears over the Cardinal. |
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Post by bennysdentist on Mar 7, 2019 20:47:24 GMT -8
Thanks!
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Mar 7, 2019 22:30:10 GMT -8
So wily if my math checks out, we can no longer get the 3 seed correct? Because even if UCLA beats Utah we only are ahead of Utah on tiebreaker and UCLA gets the 3 seed? So a win gets us the 4 and a loss and we need USC to beat CU, ASU to beat UA, Utah to beat UCLA and UW to beat uo? That would allow us to win a massive 9-9 tiebreaker for 4th?
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 7, 2019 22:55:52 GMT -8
Well, that was almost perfect. Colorado, Utah, and California won.
Scenarios:
Oregon State is at least the four seed with a win.
Oregon State is the three seed with a win AND a UCLA win.
We'll call that the easy way.
The hard way:
Oregon State can also be the four seed with a loss, if Utah wins, USC wins, AND Washington wins.
Fortunately, the Oregon State game is the first game on Saturday.
Arizona State @ Arizona @ 1 PM PT
With Utah's win and Stanford's loss, the Arizona-Arizona State has no impact on top four tiebreakers, but it may factor into other tiebreakers. Generally speaking, an Arizona State win helps Oregon State.
USC @ Colorado @ 2 PM PT
The game is irrelevant if Oregon State wins. If Oregon State loses, root for USC. If the Beavers lose, this is the first of three consecutive games that Oregon State needs to come out right to get the four seed.
UCLA @ Utah @ 4 PM PT
If Oregon State wins, root for UCLA. Oregon State needs this game to come out right or the Colorado-USC and Oregon-Washington games are meaningless for tiebreakers. If Oregon State loses, root for Utah. This is the second of three consecutive games that Oregon State needs to come out right to get the four seed.
Oregon @ Washington @ 7 PM PT
The game is irrelevant if Oregon State wins. For this game to matter, Oregon State needs to lose and have USC and Utah win. At that point, Oregon State is the four with a Washington win and a five with an Oregon win. (The Ducks would be the four in the latter scenario.)
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 7, 2019 23:14:19 GMT -8
So wily if my math checks out, we can no longer get the 3 seed correct? Because even if UCLA beats Utah we only are ahead of Utah on tiebreaker and UCLA gets the 3 seed? So a win gets us the 4 and a loss and we need USC to beat CU, ASU to beat UA, Utah to beat UCLA and UW to beat uo? That would allow us to win a massive 9-9 tiebreaker for 4th? Because of how these games came out, Oregon State gets the three with a win AND a UCLA win. Oregon State owns the tiebreakers for both four-way ties and the potential five-way tie. If Utah beats UCLA, Utah gets the three and Oregon State gets the four. For the 9-9 tie for fourth, the Arizona-Arizona State game is irrelevant. Stanford's loss eliminates Arizona from being able to win the a tiebreaker for fourth. USC needs to beat Colorado, Utah needs to beat UCLA, and Washington needs to beat Oregon. That would set up a five or six (with an Arizona win) team tie for fourth. With Stanford's loss, Oregon State holds all 9-9 four-seed tiebreakers. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 7, 2019 23:31:04 GMT -8
As far as the current situation, the conference sets up as follows:
1. Washington
2. Arizona State
3. Utah
4. Oregon State
5. Colorado
6. UCLA
7. Oregon
8. USC
9. Arizona
10. Stanford
11. Washington State
12. California
If the season ended today, California would play Colorado and the winner would play Oregon State. The 1-8-9 pod is currently Washington-USC-Arizona. Everyone else (all six rivals) are on the other side of the bracket.
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Post by jefframp on Mar 8, 2019 7:03:15 GMT -8
So, for anyone trying to follow all of wilky's permutations with little luck the bottom line is:
1) If we beat WSU on Saturday we definitely make the coveted top 4 in the conference.
2) If we lose we are most probably out of luck for the top 4.
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Post by beavsinorange on Mar 8, 2019 9:15:19 GMT -8
Well, that was almost perfect. Colorado, Utah, and California won. Scenarios: Oregon State is at least the four seed with a win. Oregon State is the three seed with a win AND a UCLA win. We'll call that the easy way. The hard way: Oregon State can also be the four seed with a loss, if Utah wins, USC wins, AND Washington wins. Fortunately, the Oregon State game is the first game on Saturday. Arizona State @ Arizona @ 1 PM PT With Utah's win and Stanford's loss, the Arizona-Arizona State has no impact on top four tiebreakers, but it may factor into other tiebreakers. Generally speaking, an Arizona State win helps Oregon State. USC @ Colorado @ 2 PM PT The game is irrelevant if Oregon State wins. If Oregon State loses, root for USC. If the Beavers lose, this is the first of three consecutive games that Oregon State needs to come out right to get the four seed. UCLA @ Utah @ 4 PM PT If Oregon State wins, root for UCLA. Oregon State needs this game to come out right or the Colorado-USC and Oregon-Washington games are meaningless for tiebreakers. If Oregon State loses, root for Utah. This is the second of three consecutive games that Oregon State needs to come out right to get the four seed. Oregon @ Washington @ 7 PM PT The game is irrelevant if Oregon State wins. For this game to matter, Oregon State needs to lose and have USC and Utah win. At that point, Oregon State is the four with a Washington win and a five with an Oregon win. (The Ducks would be the four in the latter scenario.) Great work Wilky. The bottom line is win on Saturday, so we don't have to rely on other teams. Go Beavs! |
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