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Post by chinmusic on Dec 23, 2019 12:45:31 GMT -8
D1 Baseball has released their annual list ranking the Top-150 college prospects in the 2020 MLB Draft. The Beavs have only one player ranked on the list - RHP Kevin Abel.
Kevin is ranked as the 41st best prospect and the 23rd best college pitcher in the draft.
I'll venture a guess here. If the reports concerning the progress of his rehab are true, there won't be 22 college pitchers taken ahead of him in the draft.
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Post by baseba1111 on Dec 23, 2019 14:26:41 GMT -8
D1 Baseball has released their annual list ranking the Top-150 college prospects in the 2020 MLB Draft. The Beavs have only one player ranked on the list - RHP Kevin Abel. Kevin is ranked as the 41st best prospect and the 23rd best college pitcher in the draft. I'll venture a guess here. If the reports concerning the progress of his rehab are true, there won't be 22 college pitchers taken ahead of him in the draft. My guess based on two friends, one still a lead scout... Abel is not a top 50 guy... maybe not top 75. Both mention he has zero leverage coming off TJ and not pitching in over a year. On top of that he is not seen as an "elite college arm" that will move thru a system quickly even without TJ. The other key piece they both mentioned is how deep this draft is in pitching. Both say 13-17 college arms could go on day one, not to mention some HS arms (Mick being one, a top 10 pick an seen as the best HS arm). They seem him in the 41-50 range as far as pitchers available at this time... overall going 70-100?! One did mention a team could play the compensation game if they don't see him passing a physical. But, basically a half of a college season and workouts alone are not going to have him pass up a plethora of very good arms (healthy at this point) that are available. He just needs to be patient and not rush to appease a scout or to hopefully bump a draft position. He's young, $ will be there, and there is plenty of time to develop. |
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Post by chinmusic on Dec 25, 2019 20:35:25 GMT -8
Good points and the pre-season rankings would support your argument of Abel not being a top-50 or 75 guy in the draft. His draft position rankings by the baseball sites are 41st, 64th and 69th, so you are on safe ground with your prediction. Me? I'm taking a little different position with Kevin. Some of my thinking comes from the Baseball intelligentsia and some from my own observations.
I also agree the draft is "heavy" with capable college pitchers (light on prep pitchers), and Kevin is at a decided disadvantage rehabilitating his elbow following the T.J. surgery this year. However. I do believe he has some leverage based on the grades he was receiving following the 2018 season. A scout told me he potentially had two plus pitches (the near 12-6 breaking ball and the circle change).
I'm not sure how you would define an "elite" arm in the current game. The scouts tell you, "95 is the new 90 and like Starbucks, there's a guy that can touch it on ever corner all over the country. High heat is non longer elite, it is a commodity. Is velo still king? It depends on who you ask. Good hitters can time 100+ mph, so not every club is enamored with top-end velocity. A pitcher's top priority is still being able to locate his fastball, and routinely throw it for strikes. The average fastball velo in MLB was 92.7 mph in 2017, 92.5 in 2018. In 2018 Kevin routinely sat in the 90-92 band, touching 93 - adequate for a college freshman but IMHO, only his third best pitch.
Can Kevin keep his stuff intact following the rehab? Based on the progress reports leaking out and player comments, I think he will. In the 2018 CWS championship game, Kevin Abel and Adley Rutschman with Yeskie's pitch calls, dominated a very good hitting Arkansas team before a score of scouts, and GM's. I'm hoping they have good long-term memories.
Analytics is changing the game. The % of fastballs thrown has steadily declined over recent years from 64.8% to 54.9%. The era of Sinker/Cutter/Slider guys is dwindling away. The trend now is to guys that can spin the ball and throw hard doing it. The Astros, Dodgers, Rays and Red Sox are heavy into analytics and the data is telling them the curve ball is the toughest pitch to hit in baseball. Once technology began to measure spin rate, spin axis, velocity, horizontal, vertical break, and how difficult it was to hit, clubs began to change their thinking (now you know what Dorman is busy doing). There are ML pitchers today "bending" 45-50% of their pitches - it's their best pitch. With a well located low 90's heater and his quality secondary stuff, I can't see 23 pitchers being taken ahead of Kevin - if he's healthy.
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Post by shelby on Dec 26, 2019 11:05:59 GMT -8
The Beavers are/ were a pretty good hitting team and, to your point, when they had trouble- it seemed to be with the guys that had pitches that got them looking ( funky breaks with way above average movement ).. Did not take the time to look it up, but it seemed like we had an excessive number of strikeouts 'looking' last year. Usually when we were in position to do some damage with men on base !
Then, thinking back to the 2018 final for Abel , he was getting guys out with a mix of pitching backwards and unbelievable movement on every pitch.
When you couple all of that with a team that loves to swing the bat - magic !
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Dec 26, 2019 12:50:27 GMT -8
D1 Baseball has released their annual list ranking the Top-150 college prospects in the 2020 MLB Draft. The Beavs have only one player ranked on the list - RHP Kevin Abel. Kevin is ranked as the 41st best prospect and the 23rd best college pitcher in the draft. I'll venture a guess here. If the reports concerning the progress of his rehab are true, there won't be 22 college pitchers taken ahead of him in the draft. My guess based on two friends, one still a lead scout... Abel is not a top 50 guy... maybe not top 75. Both mention he has zero leverage coming off TJ and not pitching in over a year. On top of that he is not seen as an "elite college arm" that will move thru a system quickly even without TJ. The other key piece they both mentioned is how deep this draft is in pitching. Both say 13-17 college arms could go on day one, not to mention some HS arms (Mick being one, a top 10 pick an seen as the best HS arm). They seem him in the 41-50 range as far as pitchers available at this time... overall going 70-100?! One did mention a team could play the compensation game if they don't see him passing a physical. But, basically a half of a college season and workouts alone are not going to have him pass up a plethora of very good arms (healthy at this point) that are available. He just needs to be patient and not rush to appease a scout or to hopefully bump a draft position. He's young, $ will be there, and there is plenty of time to develop. I don't know, but I will throw it out there. Drew Rasmussen came back for half of a college season and was drafted #31 overall. Now, that dude could touch 99 and maybe that is the difference? I flatly do not know what goes into why major league teams draft certain guys over others.......... I will say that, I do not care where Abel goes or when. From what I have seen, if Abel is not paid first round money in 2020, he should be playing for Oregon State in 2021. |
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Post by chinmusic on Dec 26, 2019 19:14:55 GMT -8
Outcome from the surgery is obviously the key in determining Kevin's immediate future.
Selfishly, I'm for any scenario that enables Kevin to toe the rubber for my Beavs in 2021. I would love to watch that guy pitch another season at Goss.
K K K K K K K K K K K K K
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