bill82
Freshman
OSU's 10,157th Best Donor
Posts: 970
|
Post by bill82 on Nov 26, 2018 6:19:01 GMT -8
This will be a weird year if the Beavs do not make any progress. I know it is early, but I'm not seeing anything pointing to a turnaround so far. When ET brings up the ball he looks tentative and does not command the point. WT is still yelling constantly directions from the bench. Without a floor general we are in deep trouble.
So what happens if conference play goes as predicted by all the expert commentators and odds makers? How do you make changes to the top when your three top players are tied to those coaches? Barnes must be at least considering the options.
1) Ride it out all season and make a change after the last game? TT goes pro. ET transfers and the cupboard is more than bare for the next coach.
2) Fire WT mid-season and put Asst. Coach Thompson in charge. How does that impact TT during the remainder of the year? Do you require the next coach to hold over Coach Thompson to retain ET?
3) Go one more season with WT to avoid a messy break-up?
The riches we received by having family ties seems to be a major factor now in our options to right the ship. It is easy to see why so many companies and public agencies don't allow family members to be hired by other family members. You end up with really difficult situations when conflicts arise.
If we don't make the NIT this year and make a change it will be interesting to see how all the parties comport themselves.
I'd probably go with option 3 just to avoid a messy break-up. Give WT a sixth year. Maybe next year's recruits will miraculously give us a boost. Or perhaps if we still are stalled, they give the next coach a more stable base to work with.
It's a weird situation.
|
|
|
Post by Judge Smails on Nov 26, 2018 6:32:39 GMT -8
This will be a weird year if the Beavs do not make any progress. I know it is early, but I'm not seeing anything pointing to a turnaround so far. When ET brings up the ball he looks tentative and does not command the point. WT is still yelling constantly directions from the bench. Without a floor general we are in deep trouble. So what happens if conference play goes as predicted by all the expert commentators and odds makers? How do you make changes to the top when your three top players are tied to those coaches? Barnes must be at least considering the options. 1) Ride it out all season and make a change after the last game? TT goes pro. ET transfers and the cupboard is more than bare for the next coach. 2) Fire WT mid-season and put Asst. Coach Thompson in charge. How does that impact TT during the remainder of the year? Do you require the next coach to hold over Coach Thompson to retain ET? 3) Go one more season with WT to avoid a messy break-up? The riches we received by having family ties seems to be a major factor now in our options to right the ship. It is easy to see why so many companies and public agencies don't allow family members to be hired by other family members. You end up with really difficult situations when conflicts arise. If we don't make the NIT this year and make a change it will be interesting to see how all the parties comport themselves. I'd probably go with option 3 just to avoid a messy break-up. Give WT a sixth year. Maybe next year's recruits will miraculously give us a boost. Or perhaps if we still are stalled, they give the next coach a more stable base to work with. It's a weird situation. Might as well fire him now. 5-1 is unacceptable! I get that some of the concerns that we have seen the last couple of years are still appearing, but are you ready to fire a coach that has been better than the previous coaches for the past 25+ years? It is hard to win here, just look at WSU hiring what appeared to be a proven coach (Kent) and he has had no success there. He will get at least one more year.
|
|
bill82
Freshman
OSU's 10,157th Best Donor
Posts: 970
|
Post by bill82 on Nov 26, 2018 7:48:34 GMT -8
So what happens if conference play goes as predicted by all the expert commentators and odds makers? How do you make changes to the top when your three top players are tied to those coaches? Barnes must be at least considering the options. If we don't make the NIT this year and make a change it will be interesting to see how all the parties comport themselves. Might as well fire him now. 5-1 is unacceptable! I get that some of the concerns that we have seen the last couple of years are still appearing, but are you ready to fire a coach that has been better than the previous coaches for the past 25+ years? It is hard to win here, just look at WSU hiring what appeared to be a proven coach (Kent) and he has had no success there. He will get at least one more year. I edited my response in this response to make it clear I'm talking about a hypothetical situation. If we finish 10th-11th-12th what do we do? But I agree with you - even if for different reasons. Give WT a sixth year (and I'll add enjoy the Women's team this year and look forward to baseball.)
|
|
|
Post by Judge Smails on Nov 26, 2018 8:06:11 GMT -8
Might as well fire him now. 5-1 is unacceptable! I get that some of the concerns that we have seen the last couple of years are still appearing, but are you ready to fire a coach that has been better than the previous coaches for the past 25+ years? It is hard to win here, just look at WSU hiring what appeared to be a proven coach (Kent) and he has had no success there. He will get at least one more year. I edited my response in this response to make it clear I'm talking about a hypothetical situation. If we finish 10th-11th-12th what do we do? But I agree with you - even if for different reasons. Give WT a sixth year (and I'll add enjoy the Women's team this year and look forward to baseball.) I think the league is as weak as it has been during Tinkle's tenure. There is a good opportunity to finish in the upper half, if they can improve and figure some things out.
If we finish 10th or below, there would definitely be big concerns going forward.
|
|
jbjam
Freshman
Posts: 127
|
Post by jbjam on Nov 26, 2018 9:42:30 GMT -8
I'm so tired of the 'it's hard to win here' excuse. It's hard to win anywhere! That's the job they signed up for.
I hope they have an amazing year. We are seeing some negative signs but also positives. I dont think its unreasonable for people to wonder.
|
|
|
Post by Judge Smails on Nov 26, 2018 9:54:28 GMT -8
I'm so tired of the 'it's hard to win here' excuse. It's hard to win anywhere! That's the job they signed up for. I hope they have an amazing year. We are seeing some negative signs but also positives. I dont think its unreasonable for people to wonder. OK...It's harder to win here...Better?
|
|
|
Post by obf on Nov 26, 2018 10:11:44 GMT -8
This will be a weird year if the Beavs do not make any progress. I know it is early, but I'm not seeing anything pointing to a turnaround so far. When ET brings up the ball he looks tentative and does not command the point. WT is still yelling constantly directions from the bench. Without a floor general we are in deep trouble. It's a weird situation. I haven't seen any progress either.... but that is because most of the games so far have been away from Corvallis. I hope to see some progress on Saturday against Missouri State. However, even with the hardship of listen to Jon Warren, I feel like I have heard some improvements. Four that seem most obvious to me: • Defense - Whether it is just the combination of players this year, more emphasis from coaches, or bad opponents, the defensive effort and results (we have seen effort before without results...) seem much better this year. It has certainly helped that Kelley has come in and made an immediate impact. When was the last time we had a player averaging 3.5 blocks a game? During Tinkle's first NCAA tournament push, high effort defense was a calling card, we won several games just by grinding the other team into dust from a conditioning point of view. We may not have the same horses as that year (no GP2), but that type of high effort defense can still be effective, certainly more effective that the lackadaisical matador defense of the last two years. • Post Play - Drew was no doubt a good player, but sometimes less is more... It is funny to me that one of the big complaints from folks this year has been the lack of called offensive sets that start with a pass into the post. IMHO, there was nothing more frustrating than watching empty possession after empty possession trying to get Drew involved offensively. Sometimes it worked, but a lot of the time it was a recipe for wild shots against double teams with no chance of going in or turnovers. It also limited the touches for other players that also need volume to score. Enter Big G and Kelley who seem content to play defense, grab rebounds and get most of their points on put backs and easy dish dunks. It's not like they are getting ignored on offense, it is just that they are being given their opportunities as the result of attention and double teams to others, resulting in easy dunk and layups, even with missing a couple easy shots, Big G and Kelley are shooting a combined 70 (SEVENTY) percent from the field! A big man that requires very little designed attention to get (combined) 15/10/3.5 (pts/rbs/blks) is really valuable. Not to put too fine of a point on it, but that is better than Drew's best year. The other side effect of not having to touch the ball a tone on offensive sets is they are then able to be ready for a potential offensive rebound. They are getting 4+ a game. • Stevie and Tres – Regardless of family ties, these are our two best players, and it feels like they are finally playing within themselves. Tres has a bad shooting night? He does other things. Stevie has been turning it over less and taking better shots. And even if BOTH are struggling? We have juuuuuuust enough depth to tide things over until they right the ship. • Team Confidence – We have been hearing for several years that the team is young and they have to “learn how to win”. Well… they may not all have been pretty, but this team is winning, and it is winning games it would have lost in years past. Long Beach State for example… we won that game, on the road, even after being down in the second half, building a lead, then letting it mostly slip away, and then having to make FREE THROWS to cement it. Tinkle and Reichle calmly step up and sink all four late FT, including a dreaded 1 and 1. Lots of caveats of course... Let’s see them do it in conference play... And all of that, but I think there is legitimate improvement there, and I thing NIT is the floor for this team, and a NCAA bearth is not out of the question. Either way, I don’t think Wayne gets fired unless the wheels really come off and we have a winless Pac-12 or something terrible.
|
|
|
Post by beavs6 on Nov 26, 2018 10:13:12 GMT -8
Might as well fire him now. 5-1 is unacceptable! I get that some of the concerns that we have seen the last couple of years are still appearing, but are you ready to fire a coach that has been better than the previous coaches for the past 25+ years? It is hard to win here, just look at WSU hiring what appeared to be a proven coach (Kent) and he has had no success there. He will get at least one more year. I edited my response in this response to make it clear I'm talking about a hypothetical situation. If we finish 10th-11th-12th what do we do? But I agree with you - even if for different reasons. Give WT a sixth year (and I'll add enjoy the Women's team this year and look forward to baseball.) If the hypothetical is based on a 10th-11th-12th place finish in conference, why give the option of removing WT mid season? (Option #2) I agree, the performance on the floor makes me nervous...however the results to date are what we need to see. I guess I'm in the camp of let the season play out, then make a decision. Can't let the "what-ifs" be the guiding factors.
|
|
|
Post by ag87 on Nov 26, 2018 10:41:10 GMT -8
Four that seem most obvious to me: • Defense - Whether it is just the combination of players this year, more emphasis from coaches, or bad opponents, the defensive effort and results (we have seen effort before without results...) seem much better this year. It has certainly helped that Kelley has come in and made an immediate impact. When was the last time we had a player averaging 3.5 blocks a game? During Tinkle's first NCAA tournament push, high effort defense was a calling card, we won several games just by grinding the other team into dust from a conditioning point of view. We may not have the same horses as that year (no GP2), but that type of high effort defense can still be effective, certainly more effective that the lackadaisical matador defense of the last two years. On KenPom.com, Kelley is #1 in the country in block% at 20.4%. I'm not positive but I think that means he blocks 20.4% of the shots taken when he is on the floor. Other guys on that list are #6 7'2 Bol Bol at 15.5%, #20 7'1 Moses Brown of UCLA at 12.7%, #25 7'6 Tacko Fall of UCF at 12.3%, and #56 Kenny Wooten at 9.8%.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2018 11:01:52 GMT -8
Four that seem most obvious to me: • Defense - Whether it is just the combination of players this year, more emphasis from coaches, or bad opponents, the defensive effort and results (we have seen effort before without results...) seem much better this year. It has certainly helped that Kelley has come in and made an immediate impact. When was the last time we had a player averaging 3.5 blocks a game? During Tinkle's first NCAA tournament push, high effort defense was a calling card, we won several games just by grinding the other team into dust from a conditioning point of view. We may not have the same horses as that year (no GP2), but that type of high effort defense can still be effective, certainly more effective that the lackadaisical matador defense of the last two years. On KenPom.com, Kelley is #1 in the country in block% at 20.4%. I'm not positive but I think that means he blocks 20.4% of the shots taken when he is on the floor. Other guys on that list are #6 7'2 Bol Bol at 15.5%, #20 7'1 Moses Brown of UCLA at 12.7%, #25 7'6 Tacko Fall of UCF at 12.3%, and #56 Kenny Wooten at 9.8%. the math almost seems to work for the one game sample but without watching the game and tallying the total opp shots taken when KK is in the game it is hard to say for sure KK played 11 minutes out the possible 40 and blocked 5 shots out of the 65 attempts. So roughly 11/40=.275 x 65 = about 18 shots on his watch. 18/5 = 28% Anyway that's an oddly illuminative stat.
|
|
|
Post by baseba1111 on Nov 26, 2018 11:27:21 GMT -8
Might as well fire him now. 5-1 is unacceptable! I get that some of the concerns that we have seen the last couple of years are still appearing, but are you ready to fire a coach that has been better than the previous coaches for the past 25+ years? It is hard to win here, just look at WSU hiring what appeared to be a proven coach (Kent) and he has had no success there. He will get at least one more year. I edited my response in this response to make it clear I'm talking about a hypothetical situation. If we finish 10th-11th-12th what do we do? But I agree with you - even if for different reasons. Give WT a sixth year (and I'll add enjoy the Women's team this year and look forward to baseball.) 5-1 vs the #234 rated schedule so far and it will get worse. OSU is the only other Pac12 team besides WSU that hasn't played multiple games vs the Top 100. In fact as of today OSU will play ONE game vs a Top 100... Texas A&M at #76. So... if you go by these "ratings" OSU should go 10-2 or 11-1. But, does that really prep them for a conference, although weaker than past seasons, that still has (7) teams rated in the Top 60 and playing multiple Top 100/50/25 type teams?? Will even 9-9/20 wins with this OOC schedule mean anything but NIT? Is 8th and NIT acceptable with the most experienced team WT will have had? OSU #75 (8th in Pac12) A&M #76 Penn #103 Mizz #104 OldD #113 StL #125 Kent #152 Mizz St #156 Pepp #200 LBSt #221 Wyom #226 CConn #252 UC Riv #292 My guess is that unless the wheels completely fall off it will not matter, for financial and "other" reasons. WT will get another year. The pro's and cons's of it can be discussed. But I do not see the improvement needed to succeed vs a much tougher league schedule where 13 of the 18 games will be vs teams at a level OSU has chosen not to play. Where as a team like Utah (currently rated below OSU at #118) will be tested with a half dozen or so top 100 games.
|
|
|
Post by atownbeaver on Nov 26, 2018 11:38:56 GMT -8
This will be a weird year if the Beavs do not make any progress. I know it is early, but I'm not seeing anything pointing to a turnaround so far. When ET brings up the ball he looks tentative and does not command the point. WT is still yelling constantly directions from the bench. Without a floor general we are in deep trouble. It's a weird situation. I haven't seen any progress either.... but that is because most of the games so far have been away from Corvallis. I hope to see some progress on Saturday against Missouri State. However, even with the hardship of listen to Jon Warren, I feel like I have heard some improvements. Four that seem most obvious to me: • Defense - Whether it is just the combination of players this year, more emphasis from coaches, or bad opponents, the defensive effort and results (we have seen effort before without results...) seem much better this year. It has certainly helped that Kelley has come in and made an immediate impact. When was the last time we had a player averaging 3.5 blocks a game? During Tinkle's first NCAA tournament push, high effort defense was a calling card, we won several games just by grinding the other team into dust from a conditioning point of view. We may not have the same horses as that year (no GP2), but that type of high effort defense can still be effective, certainly more effective that the lackadaisical matador defense of the last two years. • Post Play - Drew was no doubt a good player, but sometimes less is more... It is funny to me that one of the big complaints from folks this year has been the lack of called offensive sets that start with a pass into the post. IMHO, there was nothing more frustrating than watching empty possession after empty possession trying to get Drew involved offensively. Sometimes it worked, but a lot of the time it was a recipe for wild shots against double teams with no chance of going in or turnovers. It also limited the touches for other players that also need volume to score. Enter Big G and Kelley who seem content to play defense, grab rebounds and get most of their points on put backs and easy dish dunks. It's not like they are getting ignored on offense, it is just that they are being given their opportunities as the result of attention and double teams to others, resulting in easy dunk and layups, even with missing a couple easy shots, Big G and Kelley are shooting a combined 70 (SEVENTY) percent from the field! A big man that requires very little designed attention to get (combined) 15/10/3.5 (pts/rbs/blks) is really valuable. Not to put too fine of a point on it, but that is better than Drew's best year. The other side effect of not having to touch the ball a tone on offensive sets is they are then able to be ready for a potential offensive rebound. They are getting 4+ a game. • Stevie and Tres – Regardless of family ties, these are our two best players, and it feels like they are finally playing within themselves. Tres has a bad shooting night? He does other things. Stevie has been turning it over less and taking better shots. And even if BOTH are struggling? We have juuuuuuust enough depth to tide things over until they right the ship. • Team Confidence – We have been hearing for several years that the team is young and they have to “learn how to win”. Well… they may not all have been pretty, but this team is winning, and it is winning games it would have lost in years past. Long Beach State for example… we won that game, on the road, even after being down in the second half, building a lead, then letting it mostly slip away, and then having to make FREE THROWS to cement it. Tinkle and Reichle calmly step up and sink all four late FT, including a dreaded 1 and 1. Lots of caveats of course... Let’s see them do it in conference play... And all of that, but I think there is legitimate improvement there, and I thing NIT is the floor for this team, and a NCAA bearth is not out of the question. Either way, I don’t think Wayne gets fired unless the wheels really come off and we have a winless Pac-12 or something terrible. Add using the bench. Last year, 4 players took ALL the minutes. literally like every freaking minute. Tres, Stevie, Ethan and Drew all logged over 1,000 minutes and the next highest player had 429. This year, we have a core starting 3 (a more typical situation for teams across the nation) and 4 players splitting about 20 minutes a game. While it would be nice to push the top 3 minutes close to 30 than to 35+ for their season long health we have played more people longer minutes than we have in other years. We are legitimately playing 7 deep right now. We are a more diverse team, believe it or not.
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Nov 26, 2018 14:27:55 GMT -8
I edited my response in this response to make it clear I'm talking about a hypothetical situation. If we finish 10th-11th-12th what do we do? But I agree with you - even if for different reasons. Give WT a sixth year (and I'll add enjoy the Women's team this year and look forward to baseball.) 5-1 vs the #234 rated schedule so far and it will get worse. OSU is the only other Pac12 team besides WSU that hasn't played multiple games vs the Top 100. In fact as of today OSU will play ONE game vs a Top 100... Texas A&M at #76. So... if you go by these "ratings" OSU should go 10-2 or 11-1. But, does that really prep them for a conference, although weaker than past seasons, that still has (7) teams rated in the Top 60 and playing multiple Top 100/50/25 type teams?? Will even 9-9/20 wins with this OOC schedule mean anything but NIT? Is 8th and NIT acceptable with the most experienced team WT will have had? OSU #75 (8th in Pac12) A&M #76 Penn #103 Mizz #104 OldD #113 StL #125 Kent #152 Mizz St #156 Pepp #200 LBSt #221 Wyom #226 CConn #252 UC Riv #292 My guess is that unless the wheels completely fall off it will not matter, for financial and "other" reasons. WT will get another year. The pro's and cons's of it can be discussed. But I do not see the improvement needed to succeed vs a much tougher league schedule where 13 of the 18 games will be vs teams at a level OSU has chosen not to play. Where as a team like Utah (currently rated below OSU at #118) will be tested with a half dozen or so top 100 games. At this point, unless Oregon State wins the Pac-12 Tournament, 22 wins looks like the number to hit. Oregon State's strength of schedule looks bad now, but I think that it will improve as the season progresses. 10-2 looks like a must, though, at this point, if Oregon State wants to get to the Tournament. 10-2 would make it pretty much impossible for Oregon State to miss the NIT, absent a 6-12 or worse conference record. Top seven in the Pac-12 look like they will get invites to the Tournament (top 2-4) or to the NIT (next 3), and, right now, Oregon State has the seventh-best RPI. Kirkpatrick has Oregon State at 69, which is fifth in the Pac-12. A&M #63 Mizz #66 Penn #103 OldD #105 Kent #125 StL #140 Pepp #165 Mizz St #173 Wyom #199 LBSt #266 CConn #285 UC Riv #300 If the Beavers keep it up, they look like they are tracking into the NIT. If the Beavers can win the games that they are supposed to plus a game or two that are currently projected as losses, that is a Tournament resume. But having said that, it is really early to start projecting this all. The next five games are big ones for RPI. Win or lose, Central Connecticut is RPI poison. Then the Pac-12. Just win!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2018 14:34:44 GMT -8
5-1 vs the #234 rated schedule so far and it will get worse. OSU is the only other Pac12 team besides WSU that hasn't played multiple games vs the Top 100. In fact as of today OSU will play ONE game vs a Top 100... Texas A&M at #76. So... if you go by these "ratings" OSU should go 10-2 or 11-1. But, does that really prep them for a conference, although weaker than past seasons, that still has (7) teams rated in the Top 60 and playing multiple Top 100/50/25 type teams?? Will even 9-9/20 wins with this OOC schedule mean anything but NIT? Is 8th and NIT acceptable with the most experienced team WT will have had? OSU #75 (8th in Pac12) A&M #76 Penn #103 Mizz #104 OldD #113 StL #125 Kent #152 Mizz St #156 Pepp #200 LBSt #221 Wyom #226 CConn #252 UC Riv #292 My guess is that unless the wheels completely fall off it will not matter, for financial and "other" reasons. WT will get another year. The pro's and cons's of it can be discussed. But I do not see the improvement needed to succeed vs a much tougher league schedule where 13 of the 18 games will be vs teams at a level OSU has chosen not to play. Where as a team like Utah (currently rated below OSU at #118) will be tested with a half dozen or so top 100 games. At this point, unless Oregon State wins the Pac-12 Tournament, 22 wins looks like the number to hit. Oregon State's strength of schedule looks bad now, but I think that it will improve as the season progresses. 10-2 looks like a must, though, at this point, if Oregon State wants to get to the Tournament. 10-2 would make it pretty much impossible for Oregon State to miss the NIT, absent a 6-12 or worse conference record. Top seven in the Pac-12 look like they will get invites to the Tournament (top 2-4) or to the NIT (next 3), and, right now, Oregon State has the seventh-best RPI. Kirkpatrick has Oregon State at 69, which is fifth in the Pac-12. A&M #63 Mizz #66 Penn #103 OldD #105 Kent #125 StL #140 Pepp #165 Mizz St #173 Wyom #199 LBSt #266 CConn #285 UC Riv #300 If the Beavers keep it up, they look like they are tracking into the NIT. If the Beavers can win the games that they are supposed to plus a game or two that are currently projected as losses, that is a Tournament resume. But having said that, it is really early to start projecting this all. The next five games are big ones for RPI. Win or lose, Central Connecticut is RPI poison. Then the Pac-12. Just win! i don't think the team will overlook Missou state enough to lose that one at home and then Texas A&M game looms big. Get that one and the ball will be rolling a bit. The Dam City Classic or whatever it is called is a fun game to attend. Hopefully a big portland crowd pushes the beavs over the top.
|
|
|
Post by jdogge on Nov 26, 2018 14:49:11 GMT -8
This will be a weird year if the Beavs do not make any progress. I know it is early, but I'm not seeing anything pointing to a turnaround so far. When ET brings up the ball he looks tentative and does not command the point. WT is still yelling constantly directions from the bench. Without a floor general we are in deep trouble. So what happens if conference play goes as predicted by all the expert commentators and odds makers? How do you make changes to the top when your three top players are tied to those coaches? Barnes must be at least considering the options. 1) Ride it out all season and make a change after the last game? TT goes pro. ET transfers and the cupboard is more than bare for the next coach. 2) Fire WT mid-season and put Asst. Coach Thompson in charge. How does that impact TT during the remainder of the year? Do you require the next coach to hold over Coach Thompson to retain ET? 3) Go one more season with WT to avoid a messy break-up? The riches we received by having family ties seems to be a major factor now in our options to right the ship. It is easy to see why so many companies and public agencies don't allow family members to be hired by other family members. You end up with really difficult situations when conflicts arise. If we don't make the NIT this year and make a change it will be interesting to see how all the parties comport themselves. I'd probably go with option 3 just to avoid a messy break-up. Give WT a sixth year. Maybe next year's recruits will miraculously give us a boost. Or perhaps if we still are stalled, they give the next coach a more stable base to work with. It's a weird situation. Geez f&%*$ng Louise, man, get a f&%*$ng grip.
|
|