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Post by mbabeav on Apr 29, 2018 21:11:56 GMT -8
Even though we are playing Stanford and UCLA, which are really big in this strength of schedule issue, we're playing them at home which means that even if we beat them we're still not going to improve nearly as much as we could if it was a neutral site or at their place. I would hate to see us end up ranked 4th or 5th in the polls and still not get a top 8 seed because of it.
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Post by tamatrix on Apr 29, 2018 22:14:25 GMT -8
Win the final 4 series and will be a top 8 seed for sure, even if that doesn't win us the Pac-12....don't sweat the RPI too much. Top 12 will be plenty since we are a West Coast team, just win games.
For example, Stanford got #8 National Seed last year with the 13th RPI.
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Post by tamatrix on Apr 29, 2018 22:19:40 GMT -8
Other thing to cheer for are Ohio State, Missouri State, Nevada and Fullerton wins. They are all in top 50 in RPI or on the brink, getting more Top 50 games and wins important factor too. Currently 4-1 vs Top 50, with 6 more games coming in UCLA/Stanford. Getting Missouri St (currently 51) in would help. Fullerton and Ohio State already in and that helps.
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Post by ricke71 on Apr 30, 2018 6:05:33 GMT -8
Even though we are playing Stanford and UCLA, which are really big in this strength of schedule issue, we're playing them at home which means that even if we beat them we're still not going to improve nearly as much as we could if it was a neutral site or at their place. I would hate to see us end up ranked 4th or 5th in the polls and still not get a top 8 seed because of it. ...on the other hand I'm VERY thankful we are playing Stanford / UCLA at home. "playoff" Baseball in May! I can't remember any season in which 3 top 10 (top 7 as of this a.m.) teams took the field at Goss in the final month of the regular season. If weather is decent, the crowds should provide a terrific home field boost. Caveat: there's a lot of business to take care of between now, and then. |
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Post by mbabeav on Apr 30, 2018 9:58:37 GMT -8
Even though we are playing Stanford and UCLA, which are really big in this strength of schedule issue, we're playing them at home which means that even if we beat them we're still not going to improve nearly as much as we could if it was a neutral site or at their place. I would hate to see us end up ranked 4th or 5th in the polls and still not get a top 8 seed because of it. ...on the other hand I'm VERY thankful we are playing Stanford / UCLA at home. "playoff" Baseball in May! I can't remember any season in which 3 top 10 (top 7 as of this a.m.) teams took the field at Goss in the final month of the regular season. If weather is decent, the crowds should provide a terrific home field boost. Caveat: there's a lot of business to take care of between now, and then. Got my tickets, should be a heck of a May! |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Apr 30, 2018 14:07:29 GMT -8
Win the final 4 series and will be a top 8 seed for sure, even if that doesn't win us the Pac-12....don't sweat the RPI too much. Top 12 will be plenty since we are a West Coast team, just win games. For example, Stanford got #8 National Seed last year with the 13th RPI. I would caveat that Oregon State needs to win the games in Eugene and at least split the games with San Diego for this to be true. The big Oregon game is the one on Tuesday, because Oregon State would basically need to sweep Washington State to make up for it. Whereas you figure that a series win against Stanford could make up for a loss in Eugene. Also, Stanford got the #8 National Seed in 2017 with a #8 RPI. (The Cardinal lost their Regional and slipped to #13 but started #8.) Actually, six of the top 8 teams were slotted exactly according to their RPI. The only change was that the committee flipped #6 TCU and #7 Louisville. (The Horned Frogs subsequently proved the Committee right with the win over the Cardinals in the College World Series.) 16 of the 17 Regional Hosts in 2017 had a top 16 RPI. The only fudging was putting #17 Houston in over #16 Viginia. The Committee the last two years has been outright terrible, very pro-RPI and very punishing to the West Coast teams. There has been no discernible turnover, so I am pretty sure that the Committee is going to be terrible again in 2018, but you never know. They could surprise us. According to Boyds World, Oregon State needs to go 12-4 to move into the top 8. I would say, if the wins and losses are right, 11-5 probably gets Oregon State there as well in the eyes of the Committee, whether the RPI winds up the right number or not. However, south of there, it is hard to imagine the Beavers getting the nod as a National Seed, not with this Committee. I will add that Oregon State is in a good spot regionally. Typically, the West Coast usually gets at least three Regional Host spots. And Cal State Fullerton with their 40 RPI has the fourth-highest RPI in the region. 10-6 almost definitely gets Oregon State a Regional Host spot, depending upon who the wins and losses are to. With how the region looks, 9-7 probably gets Oregon State a Regional Host spot, as well. |
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Post by ricke71 on May 1, 2018 15:36:19 GMT -8
Latest D1 Baseball website projection (May 1) has Beavs at #5 National seed...but in an SEC lovefest has 11 teams in the field of 64. Only Stanford (#2 overall) and Oregon State (#5 overall) have top 8 seeds. UCLA appears as a #13 overall.
NO OTHER PAC-12 teams make the 64 team field. 3 PAC-12 and 11 SEC. WTF?? WTHell? I think either AZ or CAL could make it depending on how they do in May.
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Post by mbabeav on May 1, 2018 16:00:33 GMT -8
Latest D1 Baseball website projection (May 1) has Beavs at #5 National seed...but in an SEC lovefest has 11 teams in the field of 64. Only Stanford (#2 overall) and Oregon State (#5 overall) have top 8 seeds. UCLA appears as a #13 overall. NO OTHER PAC-12 teams make the 64 team field. 3 PAC-12 and 11 SEC. WTF?? WTHell? I think either AZ or CAL could make it depending on how they do in May. I am not sure about that. Basically the Pac-12 sucks this season, and it would take a big turnaround by either of those teams to get them up high enough in the RPI to be considered. Only the Beavs, ruins and furd are upper echelon |
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Post by ricke71 on May 1, 2018 16:11:53 GMT -8
Latest D1 Baseball website projection (May 1) has Beavs at #5 National seed...but in an SEC lovefest has 11 teams in the field of 64. Only Stanford (#2 overall) and Oregon State (#5 overall) have top 8 seeds. UCLA appears as a #13 overall. NO OTHER PAC-12 teams make the 64 team field. 3 PAC-12 and 11 SEC. WTF?? WTHell? I think either AZ or CAL could make it depending on how they do in May. I am not sure about that. Basically the Pac-12 sucks this season, and it would take a big turnaround by either of those teams to get them up high enough in the RPI to be considered. Only the Beavs, ruins and furd are upper echelon Agreed...only those 3 are "upper echelon" (i.e first 16 seeds). But if Cal or U of A or U of W can gave a great May (11-1, 10-2 or 9-3) they too should have a shot at field of 64. Conference may indeed be weak...but Lordy, having 3 teams in top 10 surely says SOMETHING. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 1, 2018 17:05:14 GMT -8
College Sports Madness has Stanford at #2, Oregon State at #3, and UCLA at #8. No Pac-12 teams make the cut. The SEC gets 10 teams in.
Baseball America does not have a new had Arizona in last weekend and then the Wildcats lost the series to the Utes, Utah's second series win.
Utah is 12-29. Unless the Utes win the Pac-12, they cannot make the Tournament. Stanford can officially eliminate Utah with a sweep.
Washington State is 14-23. The Cougars probably cannot improve their resume enough to merit an at large bid.
Arizona State is 18-25. To even stand a reasonable chance of netting an at large bid, the Devils need to go at least 11-1 down the stretch, and their chances would still look grim.
USC is 19-21. The Trojans must go at least 10-4 down the stretch to be considered, and their chances would still look grim.
The other four teams have a decent shot at netting an at large bid:
Washington 11- 7 21-19 RPI 76
California 10-11 24-17 RPI 80
Arizona 7-11 25-17 RPI 59
Oregon 8-13 21-20 RPI 73
The Huskies must go at least 8-5. However, to have a real shot Washington probably needs to win out or move into third place in the conference. A rainout of the Portland game would help them some.
To have a real shot, California probably needs to go at least 12-1 or move into third place in the conference. The Bears could use a rainout of BYU tonight.
Arizona probably needs to go at least 11-4 or move into third place in the conference. If the Wildcats could got 13-2, that would probably seal up a spot.
The Ducks must got at least 8-6. However, to have a real shot Oregon probably needs to go 11-3 or move into third place in the conference. Oregon could probably seal up a spot by winning out.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 2, 2018 12:52:24 GMT -8
College Sports Madness has Stanford at #2, Oregon State at #3, and UCLA at #8. No Pac-12 teams make the cut. The SEC gets 10 teams in. Baseball America does not have a new had Arizona in last weekend and then the Wildcats lost the series to the Utes, Utah's second series win. Utah is 12-29. Unless the Utes win the Pac-12, they cannot make the Tournament. Stanford can officially eliminate Utah with a sweep. Washington State is 14-23. The Cougars probably cannot improve their resume enough to merit an at large bid. Arizona State is 18-25. To even stand a reasonable chance of netting an at large bid, the Devils need to go at least 11-1 down the stretch, and their chances would still look grim. USC is 19-21. The Trojans must go at least 10-4 down the stretch to be considered, and their chances would still look grim. The other four teams have a decent shot at netting an at large bid: Washington 11- 7 21-19 RPI 76 California 10-11 24-17 RPI 80 Arizona 7-11 25-17 RPI 59 Oregon 8-13 21-20 RPI 73 The Huskies must go at least 8-5. However, to have a real shot Washington probably needs to win out or move into third place in the conference. A rainout of the Portland game would help them some. To have a real shot, California probably needs to go at least 12-1 or move into third place in the conference. The Bears could use a rainout of BYU tonight. Arizona probably needs to go at least 11-4 or move into third place in the conference. If the Wildcats could got 13-2, that would probably seal up a spot. The Ducks must got at least 8-6. However, to have a real shot Oregon probably needs to go 11-3 or move into third place in the conference. Oregon could probably seal up a spot by winning out. Just to update this: Washington beat Seattle (RPI 158) and fell two spots in RPI. The Huskies' prospects improve if Portland rains out on the 15th. Washington needs to go at least 7-5. To have a real shot, the Huskies need to go 12-1. (Although they fell in RPI, their potential high-side ceiling numbers improved because of other results over the past two days.) California beat BYU and fell two spots in RPI. To have a real shot, California probably needs to go at least 11-1 or move into third place in the conference. Arizona did not play last night and stayed pat at 59 in RPI. The Wildcats need to go 11-4 down the stretch or move into third place to have a real shot. 13-2 would probably sow up a spot. Oregon lost to Oregon State and fell six spots in RPI. The Ducks must go 8-5 to have any shot. To have a real shot, Oregon needs to go 11-2 or move into third place in the conference. The Ducks can probably seal up a spot by winning out. (Although they fell in RPI, their potential high-side ceiling numbers improved because of other results over the past two days.) Overall, the conference's RPI has improved. Most of this is due to UCLA's win last night against Cal State Fullerton. The Bruins' win did hurt the Beavers current RPI but will help the final numbers. A big RPI game currently going on is Ohio State playing Ball State. With a win, the Buckeyes would move up to about 34 in RPI. With a loss, Ohio State would probably drop to around 46 in RPI. Ohio State helps Oregon State's record, if they can go at least 7-6 down the stretch. Although the Buckeyes are currently sixth in the Big Ten, they may have an outside shot at hosting a regional, if they can go on a tear down the stretch. Ohio State is currently up 11-8 over Ball State in the fourth. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 3, 2018 15:05:31 GMT -8
College Sports Madness has Stanford at #2, Oregon State at #3, and UCLA at #8. No Pac-12 teams make the cut. The SEC gets 10 teams in. Baseball America does not have a new had Arizona in last weekend and then the Wildcats lost the series to the Utes, Utah's second series win. Utah is 12-29. Unless the Utes win the Pac-12, they cannot make the Tournament. Stanford can officially eliminate Utah with a sweep. Washington State is 14-23. The Cougars probably cannot improve their resume enough to merit an at large bid. Arizona State is 18-25. To even stand a reasonable chance of netting an at large bid, the Devils need to go at least 11-1 down the stretch, and their chances would still look grim. USC is 19-21. The Trojans must go at least 10-4 down the stretch to be considered, and their chances would still look grim. The other four teams have a decent shot at netting an at large bid: Washington 11- 7 21-19 RPI 76 California 10-11 24-17 RPI 80 Arizona 7-11 25-17 RPI 59 Oregon 8-13 21-20 RPI 73 The Huskies must go at least 8-5. However, to have a real shot Washington probably needs to win out or move into third place in the conference. A rainout of the Portland game would help them some. To have a real shot, California probably needs to go at least 12-1 or move into third place in the conference. The Bears could use a rainout of BYU tonight. Arizona probably needs to go at least 11-4 or move into third place in the conference. If the Wildcats could got 13-2, that would probably seal up a spot. The Ducks must got at least 8-6. However, to have a real shot Oregon probably needs to go 11-3 or move into third place in the conference. Oregon could probably seal up a spot by winning out. Just to update this: Washington beat Seattle (RPI 158) and fell two spots in RPI. The Huskies' prospects improve if Portland rains out on the 15th. Washington needs to go at least 7-5. To have a real shot, the Huskies need to go 12-1. (Although they fell in RPI, their potential high-side ceiling numbers improved because of other results over the past two days.) California beat BYU and fell two spots in RPI. To have a real shot, California probably needs to go at least 11-1 or move into third place in the conference. Arizona did not play last night and stayed pat at 59 in RPI. The Wildcats need to go 11-4 down the stretch or move into third place to have a real shot. 13-2 would probably sow up a spot. Oregon lost to Oregon State and fell six spots in RPI. The Ducks must go 8-5 to have any shot. To have a real shot, Oregon needs to go 11-2 or move into third place in the conference. The Ducks can probably seal up a spot by winning out. (Although they fell in RPI, their potential high-side ceiling numbers improved because of other results over the past two days.) Overall, the conference's RPI has improved. Most of this is due to UCLA's win last night against Cal State Fullerton. The Bruins' win did hurt the Beavers current RPI but will help the final numbers. A big RPI game currently going on is Ohio State playing Ball State. With a win, the Buckeyes would move up to about 34 in RPI. With a loss, Ohio State would probably drop to around 46 in RPI. Ohio State helps Oregon State's record, if they can go at least 7-6 down the stretch. Although the Buckeyes are currently sixth in the Big Ten, they may have an outside shot at hosting a regional, if they can go on a tear down the stretch. Ohio State is currently up 11-8 over Ball State in the fourth. Ohio State blows an 11-3 lead and loses 12-11, dropping the Buckeyes eight spots to 47. That stings. Oregon State's only other top 50 opponent right now is Cal State Fullerton. |
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Post by giantkillers83 on May 3, 2018 17:49:17 GMT -8
That is brutal.... tOSU..... beavs need to win games... plain, flat, and simple. The committee, Who I don’t think most pay attention to actual games during year, except for a few coaches in regional committees (?)..... will adhere to RPI as well as the media blitz that is SEC and ACC baseball...... espn... cough..... cough..... which kinda leads back into pac leadership.... promoting pac and exposure. No BS. Scott just is not earning his salary. PAC is falling behind ..... now maybe #4  .... behind sec, ACC, big10?...... I think so anyway. As far as baseball, PAC winner will get a seed. The other 2.... between Beavs, Stanford, and ucla will be praying for home field.... especially Beavs. |
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Post by tamatrix on May 3, 2018 21:09:36 GMT -8
Arizona also top 50 now with win tonight....so beavs 5-3 vs Top 50. Missouri St still has a shot to get in there too.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 3, 2018 21:22:29 GMT -8
That is brutal.... tOSU..... beavs need to win games... plain, flat, and simple. The committee, Who I don’t think most pay attention to actual games during year, except for a few coaches in regional committees (?)..... will adhere to RPI as well as the media blitz that is SEC and ACC baseball...... espn... cough..... cough..... which kinda leads back into pac leadership.... promoting pac and exposure. No BS. Scott just is not earning his salary. PAC is falling behind ..... now maybe #4 .... behind sec, ACC, big10?...... I think so anyway. As far as baseball, PAC winner will get a seed. The other 2.... between Beavs, Stanford, and ucla will be praying for home field.... especially Beavs. The two West Coast representatives this year are Stephen Robertello, Fresno State's interim AD, and Scott Sidwell, San Francisco's interim AD. Sidwell was on the Committee in 2016, when Oregon State was left out of the Tournament. And Stephen Robertello's is at Fresno State. I have zero confidence in the current Committee makeup that Oregon State will get the benefit of the doubt. This is not a Scott thing. Anymore, Stanford's case for a National Seed, whether they win the conference or not is starting to look really good. (#1 overall RPI does that.) If Oregon State can beat Stanford and finish with at least as many conference wins, the Beavers' case for a National Seed is very good. UCLA can say the same thing. If Stanford completely falls apart, however, it may be tough for any of the Pac-12 teams to earn a National Seed. |
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