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Post by kersting13 on Mar 15, 2018 14:07:52 GMT -8
I take that back. I just looked at Warren Nolan's page and the zags have moved up to number 50 RPI and Ohio State is just above them so at least we have three wins versus Tier 1 teams. It's those eight wins against the tier 4 teams that are holding us back. That and no road games. Home wins are only worth .7 of a win. Home losses are worth 1.3 losses. Oregon State beat Cal State Fullerton 2-1. However, with the multipliers, the Beavers effectively went 1.4-1.3 against Cal State Fullerton and their 81 RPI. Cal State Fullerton plays Grand Canyon and their 249 RPI this weekend, so expect the Titans to slip even further down the list, especially with a loss or two. According to boydsworld, the schedule is so lightly-rated at this point that Oregon State has to go at least 35-5 the rest of the way to finish in the top eight of RPI. I am hoping that the April 24, 2018 mid-week game against Portland is rained out. That would do wonders for the RPI. Utah is currently 1-14 with a 259 RPI. (The Utes played four games in Surprise and otherwise have been on the road. Utah's loan win was the Sunday game against UC Riverside and their 244 RPI. Utah's first home games come in two weeks against Sacramento State and their 237 RPI. Current conference RPI rankings: 1. SEC
2. ACC
3. Big 12
4. Pac-12
The ACC is already a week into conference play, which helps their conference RPI (as will the conference tournament at season's end). Tellingly, according to boydsworld's ISR, the Big 12 and Pac-12 are better than the ACC. The Pac-12's SOS is 3rd, behind the Big West and West Coast Conference. The ACC's SOS is 14th. The SEC's SOS is 20th. If you've followed Boyd's RPI Needs report in the past, you'll notice that it can be wildly incorrect, especially early in the season, but also later in the year as well. It's a nice guide sometimes, but I certainly wouldn't take it as anything more. |
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Post by zeroposter on Mar 15, 2018 15:01:25 GMT -8
Speaking of Utah, they are 0-14 without their head coach and 1-0 with him. Their RPI will be a drag all season for the Pac12, but their youth, road schedule, and suspended coach have been big factors. Coach hasn't even been allowed at practices this season as I understand.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Mar 15, 2018 16:32:32 GMT -8
That and no road games. Home wins are only worth .7 of a win. Home losses are worth 1.3 losses. Oregon State beat Cal State Fullerton 2-1. However, with the multipliers, the Beavers effectively went 1.4-1.3 against Cal State Fullerton and their 81 RPI. Cal State Fullerton plays Grand Canyon and their 249 RPI this weekend, so expect the Titans to slip even further down the list, especially with a loss or two. According to boydsworld, the schedule is so lightly-rated at this point that Oregon State has to go at least 35-5 the rest of the way to finish in the top eight of RPI. I am hoping that the April 24, 2018 mid-week game against Portland is rained out. That would do wonders for the RPI. Utah is currently 1-14 with a 259 RPI. (The Utes played four games in Surprise and otherwise have been on the road. Utah's loan win was the Sunday game against UC Riverside and their 244 RPI. Utah's first home games come in two weeks against Sacramento State and their 237 RPI. Current conference RPI rankings: 1. SEC
2. ACC
3. Big 12
4. Pac-12
The ACC is already a week into conference play, which helps their conference RPI (as will the conference tournament at season's end). Tellingly, according to boydsworld's ISR, the Big 12 and Pac-12 are better than the ACC. The Pac-12's SOS is 3rd, behind the Big West and West Coast Conference. The ACC's SOS is 14th. The SEC's SOS is 20th. If you've followed Boyd's RPI Needs report in the past, you'll notice that it can be wildly incorrect, especially early in the season, but also later in the year as well. It's a nice guide sometimes, but I certainly wouldn't take it as anything more. It's not wildly incorrect. It's math. It's right. What I think you are saying is that it does not project forward, so other teams' RPI can change, which can affect the rankings. That is true. The Pac-12 teams should have a higher RPI by playing each other, which will reduce the number of wins to get to the desired threshold, for example. Of course, contrariwise, the RPI of teams in the ACC, Big 12, and SEC will, at this point, increase at a faster rate than Pac-12 teams, because of RPI's inherent regional bias against West Coast teams in baseball. |
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Post by kersting13 on Mar 16, 2018 8:03:58 GMT -8
If you've followed Boyd's RPI Needs report in the past, you'll notice that it can be wildly incorrect, especially early in the season, but also later in the year as well. It's a nice guide sometimes, but I certainly wouldn't take it as anything more. It's not wildly incorrect. It's math. It's right. What I think you are saying is that it does not project forward, so other teams' RPI can change, which can affect the rankings. That is true. The Pac-12 teams should have a higher RPI by playing each other, which will reduce the number of wins to get to the desired threshold, for example. Of course, contrariwise, the RPI of teams in the ACC, Big 12, and SEC will, at this point, increase at a faster rate than Pac-12 teams, because of RPI's inherent regional bias against West Coast teams in baseball. It doesn't matter that the math is right if the result is wildly incorrect. The assumptions it is based on are not accurate enough at this point in the season to use it for any sort of reality check. If OSU goes 34-6 from this point on in the season, you can pretty well bet that their RPI will be in the top 8. None of us are privy to the machinations of Boyd's formula, but we can be pretty sure the results it is currently giving are wildly incorrect. |
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Post by mbabeav on Mar 16, 2018 11:50:17 GMT -8
It's not wildly incorrect. It's math. It's right. What I think you are saying is that it does not project forward, so other teams' RPI can change, which can affect the rankings. That is true. The Pac-12 teams should have a higher RPI by playing each other, which will reduce the number of wins to get to the desired threshold, for example. Of course, contrariwise, the RPI of teams in the ACC, Big 12, and SEC will, at this point, increase at a faster rate than Pac-12 teams, because of RPI's inherent regional bias against West Coast teams in baseball. It doesn't matter that the math is right if the result is wildly incorrect. The assumptions it is based on are not accurate enough at this point in the season to use it for any sort of reality check. If OSU goes 34-6 from this point on in the season, you can pretty well bet that their RPI will be in the top 8. None of us are privy to the machinations of Boyd's formula, but we can be pretty sure the results it is currently giving are wildly incorrect. I would not say that they are wildly incorrect - I would say that the calculations are based on a very limited data set. If we can go 34-6 the rest of the way, mostly against Pac-12 teams like Furd and Cal and UCLA, the data set will reflect a much better rpi. |
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Post by kersting13 on Mar 16, 2018 12:37:45 GMT -8
It doesn't matter that the math is right if the result is wildly incorrect. The assumptions it is based on are not accurate enough at this point in the season to use it for any sort of reality check. If OSU goes 34-6 from this point on in the season, you can pretty well bet that their RPI will be in the top 8. None of us are privy to the machinations of Boyd's formula, but we can be pretty sure the results it is currently giving are wildly incorrect. I would not say that they are wildly incorrect - I would say that the calculations are based on a very limited data set. If we can go 34-6 the rest of the way, mostly against Pac-12 teams like Furd and Cal and UCLA, the data set will reflect a much better rpi. Garbage in, garbage out. |
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Post by mbabeav on Mar 16, 2018 14:00:46 GMT -8
I would not say that they are wildly incorrect - I would say that the calculations are based on a very limited data set. If we can go 34-6 the rest of the way, mostly against Pac-12 teams like Furd and Cal and UCLA, the data set will reflect a much better rpi. Garbage in, garbage out. Thus 90% of the commentary of this or any other social media platform - except where *uck negativity is concerned, that is due to garbage being in place already  |
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Post by papatoe on Mar 16, 2018 17:42:36 GMT -8
No video tonight?
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Post by Tigardbeav on Mar 16, 2018 18:03:53 GMT -8
nope. old school. throwback The links on osubeavers.com on the initial page aren't working either. Go to the baseball/schedule/Cal/listen |
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