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Post by kersting13 on Sept 21, 2017 20:54:28 GMT -8
Yes, one would expect that a "balanced" team is going to skew toward rushing plays on 1st down. Going even on 1st down would lead you to believe you're dealing with a pass-heavy team. Why? Because first & second downs are "traditional" running downs. Third down is where you skew heavily toward the pass. You typically expect, over the course of a season, that 1st down has the highest % of running plays, up to 3rd down which would have the highest % of passing plays. If you're running more passes than runs on 1st down, then it's highly unlikely that you're running anywhere close to "balanced". SaveSave |
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Post by ee1990 on Sept 22, 2017 15:36:24 GMT -8
Fans always think changing play calling is some magical panacea. It isn't. We can't just assume running 11 and passing 7 would have made any measurable difference. Also, did the person who did this research also gather what defenses were being called? Did we pass 11 times when there was a 6 man box? 8 man? etc.
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Post by kersting13 on Sept 22, 2017 19:59:19 GMT -8
Fans always think changing play calling is some magical panacea. It isn't. We can't just assume running 11 and passing 7 would have made any measurable difference. Also, did the person who did this research also gather what defenses were being called? Did we pass 11 times when there was a 6 man box? 8 man? etc. It's not going to show you that kind of detail. All it shows you is a teams "commitment" to the run or pass. Minnesota, despite its 3.3 yards per carry was "committed" to the run in their game against us. CGA has claimed he wants a 60/40 run pass ratio, but if he's passing more than 50% on first downs in the first halves of games, it shows very little "commitment" to doing a 60/40. And I believe that was the point of the OP. SaveSave |
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Post by gobeavs92 on Sept 22, 2017 20:12:07 GMT -8
Still, isn't a 50% run/pass ratio on first down still pretty high? It seems to me that running on first down should be your default starting point, and then a pass play on first down should be done more as an exception to shake things up. I'm pretty sure that 50% run/pass on first down puts us pretty squarely into Riley territory, doesn't it? GO BEAVS! Not always! Some offenses call plays based on; down/distance, field position and/or personnel, etc and some use the numbers in the box as an indicator of whether they run or pass. This can also depend on the look that is given (4-2) might still run if the angles are right but pretty much 6 or more in the box they'll pass (this can vary). Less than 6 they'll run. It should be more specific than this! If a team is throwing downfield more on 1st down, that's something to note. Usually teams that throw quicker and more consistently are checking how many are in the box and those plays almost become a more extended running play (quick screens, hitches, swings, etc). So just measuring run/pass on first down isn't a great indicator of being too high on first down. Sometimes you have to play the numbers. If you run too much on first down (or vice versa) you will show too much of a tendency! So whether you are a throwing team or not, sometimes you have to throw to keep teams honest and/or on their toes! Now, I just laid out a general description. For us though, I feel that we are not paying attention to how many are in the box bc I remember against PSU (in particular) where there were no second level defenders (LBs) within 5 yards and we still threw the football! That's Horsechit! If you EVER HAVE 5 on 4 (def) you absolutely take it and run! Go Beavs! |
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