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Post by grayman on Oct 20, 2024 12:15:11 GMT -8
I am kind of rooting for Boise State to run the table and make the CFP.
Yes, I know that would require a win over the Beavers. Do I want the Beavers to lose that game? No. But I'm basing this on what I believe will happen and assuming that the Beavers lose to BSU and the Broncos do win out, then they will make that 12-team playoff. I even think they would have a shot at making some noise once there.
IMO, that would go a long way to entrench the new Pac-12's perception around the country, particularly in comparison to the Big 12 and ACC. Obviously, good bowl results from the other teams would help as well...maybe WSU lands a good one and wins. Hopefully the Beavers get in one and are healthy enough to pull off a win.
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Post by beaver55to7 on Oct 20, 2024 13:51:02 GMT -8
I am kind of rooting for Boise State to run the table and make the CFP. Yes, I know that would require a win over the Beavers. Do I want the Beavers to lose that game? No. But I'm basing this on what I believe will happen and assuming that the Beavers lose to BSU and the Broncos do win out, then they will make that 12-team playoff. I even think they would have a shot at making some noise once there. IMO, that would go a long way to entrench the new Pac-12's perception around the country, particularly in comparison to the Big 12 and ACC. Obviously, good bowl results from the other teams would help as well...maybe WSU lands a good one and wins. Hopefully the Beavers get in one and are healthy enough to pull off a win. Do they need a win over us to get in? Seems like they could go 11-2 with their conference championship and get in as the g5 conference champ winner. |
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 20, 2024 13:56:46 GMT -8
I am kind of rooting for Boise State to run the table and make the CFP. Yes, I know that would require a win over the Beavers. Do I want the Beavers to lose that game? No. But I'm basing this on what I believe will happen and assuming that the Beavers lose to BSU and the Broncos do win out, then they will make that 12-team playoff. I even think they would have a shot at making some noise once there. IMO, that would go a long way to entrench the new Pac-12's perception around the country, particularly in comparison to the Big 12 and ACC. Obviously, good bowl results from the other teams would help as well...maybe WSU lands a good one and wins. Hopefully the Beavers get in one and are healthy enough to pull off a win. Interesting "numbers"/analytics for those into that and for me bored, waiting for my afternoon tee time: 69) Oregon State
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.8-5.2 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 70 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.5-5.5 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 69 @ Cal vs San Jose State @ Air Force vs WSU @ Boise State 63) California
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.9-6.1 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 51 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.8-6.2 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 63 vs OSU @ Wake Forest vs Syracuse vs Stanford 57) San Jose State
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.3-6.7 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 100 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.5-5.5 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 57 @ Fresno St @osu vs Boise St vs UNLV vs Stanford 77) Air Force
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.9-6.1 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 114 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 2.1-9.9 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 77 @ Army vs Fresno St vs OSU @ UNR @ San Diego St 109) Washington State
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.3-4.7 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 85 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.1-1.9 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 109 @ San Diego St vs Utah St @ New Mexico @ OSU vs Wyoming 90) Boise State
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.5-3.5 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 79 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.8-2.2 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 90 @ UNLV vs San Diego St vs UNR @ San Jose St @ Wyoming vs OSU Other than OSU (if they keep improving in all three phases) WSU does not have a loss, maybe not even a close game left on their schedule. Does a former P4 team at 11-1 get a courtesy nod over Boise?? Everyone knows Oregon early in the year had not begun to gel... but, if Oregon goes 12-0 Boise almost has to get a nod. BUT... does Oregon go 12-0? Does Boise get by UNLV? Does Jeanty stay healthy with all the carries? IF... UNLV beats Boise St... does @ Hawaii, vs San Diego St, @ San Jose St, vs UNR... put UNLV at 11-1 and a CFP candidate? IF... WSU goes 11-1 I'd think they are at least a 12 seed. |
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Post by RenoBeaver on Oct 20, 2024 14:01:58 GMT -8
I am kind of rooting for Boise State to run the table and make the CFP. Yes, I know that would require a win over the Beavers. Do I want the Beavers to lose that game? No. But I'm basing this on what I believe will happen and assuming that the Beavers lose to BSU and the Broncos do win out, then they will make that 12-team playoff. I even think they would have a shot at making some noise once there. IMO, that would go a long way to entrench the new Pac-12's perception around the country, particularly in comparison to the Big 12 and ACC. Obviously, good bowl results from the other teams would help as well...maybe WSU lands a good one and wins. Hopefully the Beavers get in one and are healthy enough to pull off a win. Do they need a win over us to get in? Seems like they could go 11-2 with their conference championship and get in as the g5 conference champ winner. Army will probably lose to ND, but i don't think they will lose any other game, although they may have to beat Navy two weeks in a row if Navy beats Tulane at home. Army looks good, that would be glorious if they best ND. If Boise State loses another game, they better hope it's against UNLV. A loss to us or any other MWC team will look pretty bad in the final rankings. With thst said, im not counting UNLV out of that mix either. That should be a good game against Boise State next Friday in Las Vegas |
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 20, 2024 14:12:36 GMT -8
I am kind of rooting for Boise State to run the table and make the CFP. Yes, I know that would require a win over the Beavers. Do I want the Beavers to lose that game? No. But I'm basing this on what I believe will happen and assuming that the Beavers lose to BSU and the Broncos do win out, then they will make that 12-team playoff. I even think they would have a shot at making some noise once there. IMO, that would go a long way to entrench the new Pac-12's perception around the country, particularly in comparison to the Big 12 and ACC. Obviously, good bowl results from the other teams would help as well...maybe WSU lands a good one and wins. Hopefully the Beavers get in one and are healthy enough to pull off a win. Do they need a win over us to get in? Seems like they could go 11-2 with their conference championship and get in as the g5 conference champ winner. They will not get in if they lose as they may not be the highest ranked G5 conference winner... Army or Navy could easily supplant them if either wins out. Both get a huge opportunity vs ND. GAWD it would be great if they both win... knock ND out of the CFP. Both COULD enter their matchup Dec 14th undefeated?! When looking on the AAC site the weird thing is they have their Football Championship game set for 12/6/24. Army vs Navy is 12/14/24. Are they not eligible for the conference title game? I know Army is a new member for 2024, but Navy has been in the AAC since 2015. Am I missing something? |
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Oct 20, 2024 14:54:59 GMT -8
It's a unique scheduling quirk due to Army and Navy taking a bye after Game 11 because of exams. The AAC championship game is scheduled before the Army-Navy game. They could play in the title game if they are 1st and 2nd at the time, and then in their scheduled game a week later.
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 20, 2024 15:17:16 GMT -8
It's a unique scheduling quirk due to Army and Navy taking a bye after Game 11 because of exams. The AAC championship game is scheduled before the Army-Navy game. They could play in the title game if they are 1st and 2nd at the time, and then in their scheduled game a week later. Weird as both Tulane (3-0] & Memphis (2-1) could finish with 0 or 1 loss. Both play(ed) Navy, not Army. Not sure in certain circumstances how the AAC determines 1st/2nd without a key matchup being played?? |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 20, 2024 16:58:53 GMT -8
Do they need a win over us to get in? Seems like they could go 11-2 with their conference championship and get in as the g5 conference champ winner. They will not get in if they lose as they may not be the highest ranked G5 conference winner... Army or Navy could easily supplant them if either wins out. Both get a huge opportunity vs ND. GAWD it would be great if they both win... knock ND out of the CFP. Both COULD enter their matchup Dec 14th undefeated?! When looking on the AAC site the weird thing is they have their Football Championship game set for 12/6/24. Army vs Navy is 12/14/24. Are they not eligible for the conference title game? I know Army is a new member for 2024, but Navy has been in the AAC since 2015. Am I missing something? Army v. Navy is technically a nonconference game, even though both are in the same conference. The AAC Conference Championship will be set the week before. Army only has two conference games remaining, a trip to Denton to play at North Texas in three weeks and a home game against UTSA three weeks after that. If they win both games, they play in the AAC Championship Game six days later and then play Navy in Landover eight days after that. Navy hosts Tulane in four weeks, which currently is set to feature the two teams most likely to play against Army in the AAC Championship Game. The AAC Championship Game is at a conference site. It has been in New Orleans the last two years, with Tulane winning to go to the Cotton Bowl in 2022 and losing to fall out of the NY6 to getting drubbed in the Military Bowl in 2023. |
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Post by grayman on Oct 20, 2024 18:07:10 GMT -8
I guess we'll find out on Friday if Boise State can win at UNLV.
I like what UNLV has done this season but I've watched both teams and Boise State seems to be at a different level.
Interesting point about WSU but I doubt that the Cougars will be ranked highly enough to grab one of the at-large bids. Could be a New Year's bowl for them, though.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 20, 2024 19:18:29 GMT -8
I guess we'll find out on Friday if Boise State can win at UNLV. I like what UNLV has done this season but I've watched both teams and Boise State seems to be at a different level. Interesting point about WSU but I doubt that the Cougars will be ranked highly enough to grab one of the at-large bids. Could be a New Year's bowl for them, though.All New Year's Day Bowls, as well as the last New Year's Eve Bowl (the Fiesta Bowl) are CFP bowls. Additionally, the Pac-12 bowls: Alamo, Holiday, Las Vegas, Sun, and Los Angeles Bowls must select Pac-12 teams, regardless of whether those teams are still in the Pac-12. A Wazzu team that finishes 10-2 or 11-1 is likely to play in the Alamo Bowl, if they are not selected to play in the CFP. There are four bowls between January 2-4. But none of those bowls are likely to have an opening. And, even if they did, a team would have to likely finish worse than sixth among the 12 Pac-12 teams (or seventh, if there are not enough Big 12 teams, and there are likely not going to be enough) to play in one of those bowl games. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 20, 2024 21:01:19 GMT -8
I guess we'll find out on Friday if Boise State can win at UNLV. I like what UNLV has done this season but I've watched both teams and Boise State seems to be at a different level. Interesting point about WSU but I doubt that the Cougars will be ranked highly enough to grab one of the at-large bids. Could be a New Year's bowl for them, though.All New Year's Day Bowls, as well as the last New Year's Eve Bowl (the Fiesta Bowl) are CFP bowls. Additionally, the Pac-12 bowls: Alamo, Holiday, Las Vegas, Sun, and Los Angeles Bowls must select Pac-12 teams, regardless of whether those teams are still in the Pac-12. A Wazzu team that finishes 10-2 or 11-1 is likely to play in the Alamo Bowl, if they are not selected to play in the CFP. There are four bowls between January 2-4. But none of those bowls are likely to have an opening. And, even if they did, a team would have to likely finish worse than sixth among the 12 Pac-12 teams (or seventh, if there are not enough Big 12 teams, and there are likely not going to be enough) to play in one of those bowl games. I should mention that the two non-NY6 New Year's bowl games last year (the Citrus and ReliaQuest Bowls) will be held on New Year's Eve this year. |
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Post by scottishsteel on Oct 21, 2024 5:57:06 GMT -8
I am kind of rooting for Boise State to run the table and make the CFP. Yes, I know that would require a win over the Beavers. Do I want the Beavers to lose that game? No. But I'm basing this on what I believe will happen and assuming that the Beavers lose to BSU and the Broncos do win out, then they will make that 12-team playoff. I even think they would have a shot at making some noise once there. IMO, that would go a long way to entrench the new Pac-12's perception around the country, particularly in comparison to the Big 12 and ACC. Obviously, good bowl results from the other teams would help as well...maybe WSU lands a good one and wins. Hopefully the Beavers get in one and are healthy enough to pull off a win. Interesting "numbers"/analytics for those into that and for me bored, waiting for my afternoon tee time: 69) Oregon State
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.8-5.2 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 70 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.5-5.5 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 69 @ Cal vs San Jose State @ Air Force vs WSU @ Boise State 63) California
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.9-6.1 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 51 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.8-6.2 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 63 vs OSU @ Wake Forest vs Syracuse vs Stanford 57) San Jose State
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.3-6.7 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 100 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.5-5.5 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 57 @ Fresno St @osu vs Boise St vs UNLV vs Stanford 77) Air Force
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.9-6.1 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 114 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 2.1-9.9 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 77 @ Army vs Fresno St vs OSU @ UNR @ San Diego St 109) Washington State
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.3-4.7 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 85 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.1-1.9 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 109 @ San Diego St vs Utah St @ New Mexico @ OSU vs Wyoming 90) Boise State
Preseason Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.5-3.5 Preseason Strength of Schedule Rank: 79 Week 9 Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.8-2.2 Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 90 @ UNLV vs San Diego St vs UNR @ San Jose St @ Wyoming vs OSU Other than OSU (if they keep improving in all three phases) WSU does not have a loss, maybe not even a close game left on their schedule. Does a former P4 team at 11-1 get a courtesy nod over Boise?? Everyone knows Oregon early in the year had not begun to gel... but, if Oregon goes 12-0 Boise almost has to get a nod. BUT... does Oregon go 12-0? Does Boise get by UNLV? Does Jeanty stay healthy with all the carries? IF... UNLV beats Boise St... does @ Hawaii, vs San Diego St, @ San Jose St, vs UNR... put UNLV at 11-1 and a CFP candidate? IF... WSU goes 11-1 I'd think they are at least a 12 seed. I believe Washington St and Boise St aren't competing for the same playoff spot. For this year and next year Washington St and Oregon St are more like Notre Dame in regards to the college football playoff consideration - an independent that gets in if they are ranked high enough. Boise St is gunning for the 5th conference champion spot (which isn't guaranteed to be 12th - just where everyone puts it cause G5). The playoff committee will take the 7 at large bids and the 5th rank conference champion and seed them 5 - 12. |
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Post by grayman on Oct 21, 2024 9:00:09 GMT -8
I guess we'll find out on Friday if Boise State can win at UNLV. I like what UNLV has done this season but I've watched both teams and Boise State seems to be at a different level. Interesting point about WSU but I doubt that the Cougars will be ranked highly enough to grab one of the at-large bids. Could be a New Year's bowl for them, though.All New Year's Day Bowls, as well as the last New Year's Eve Bowl (the Fiesta Bowl) are CFP bowls. Additionally, the Pac-12 bowls: Alamo, Holiday, Las Vegas, Sun, and Los Angeles Bowls must select Pac-12 teams, regardless of whether those teams are still in the Pac-12. A Wazzu team that finishes 10-2 or 11-1 is likely to play in the Alamo Bowl, if they are not selected to play in the CFP. There are four bowls between January 2-4. But none of those bowls are likely to have an opening. And, even if they did, a team would have to likely finish worse than sixth among the 12 Pac-12 teams (or seventh, if there are not enough Big 12 teams, and there are likely not going to be enough) to play in one of those bowl games. Yeah, had a brain glitch there. WSU should get a decent bowl if they wind up with one loss but I don't think they get into the CFP because, like I said, the rankings. |
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 21, 2024 9:23:03 GMT -8
Yep... BSU & WSU really not competing for the same spot. But, neither will be treated fairly.
I'll just say... the CFP committee has a few loopholes in their selection process written in for the new 12 team selection and conference realignment.
One, in their final CFP ranking if no G5 champ is ranked they can look at all non P4 "champs". Under NCAA policy the Pac12 is still a non P4 conference.
Two, they "removed the designation of conference champ when looking at comparable teams." In doing so they will ultimately still be able to treat teams as they wish.
Some examples of craziness given by media members who went thru this year's process using 2023 results, but in 2024 conferences.
- AZ ranked #14, would be highest B12 team and get 4 seed bye;
- no ranked G5 champ (SMU's now ACC), so all G5 champs re-ranked. Liberty in;
- so with top 10 CFP in, but #14 AZ and unranked Liberty two top 12 teams are out.
As of now all P4 potential champs are inside the AP top 12. Potential G5 champ not... so one top 12 team will get booted. It appears only the B12 could possibly make the 2024 CFP similar to the media simulation if losses drop their champ out of the top 12. But, as of now #10 Iowa St would get the 4th bye.
It'll be interesting to see where all these one loss teams land in the first CFP poll, November 5th.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Oct 22, 2024 6:40:33 GMT -8
I root for Boise, and WSU when they aren't playing us, so I'm in Grayman. And there is no way on God's green earth we are winning on the blue turf.
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