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Post by bleedorange21 on Oct 2, 2024 20:50:59 GMT -8
If I understand correctly we owe millions to the mountain west but if we could get it to collapse we would owe nothing. Why not match unlv payout? Seems like it would save a lot of money and be worth it.
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Post by ee1990 on Oct 2, 2024 21:39:27 GMT -8
It's very clear the Pac-12 has either completely f%#*ed up, or has a very specific strategy in mind they are still trying to leverage. They absolutely do not want to be in a big full time football conference splitting money 12 or 14 ways with UNM and Wyo and UTEP, etc. I still think they should have taken Hawai'i as a football only member, and then thrown the money you're talking about at Memphis.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 2, 2024 22:21:36 GMT -8
I think that the plan was to get four AAC teams to get to 10 and call it.
That did not work out exactly like it was supposed to.
So, the next plan was to add Utah State and UNLV to get to eight and then evaluate next steps.
That did not work out exactly like it was supposed to.
I think that there is a plan to get to 14 with AAC teams, but it may not work out.
I think that there is a plan to add UNLV and that's it or Air Force and UNLV to get to nine.
I think that an idea out there is still for the Pac-12 to get to 10 all from the Mountain West (your guess on who gets in past UNLV), get Air Force to go to the AAC, and implode the Mountain West.
Things are still going on behind the scenes. The Pac-12 was working on Gonzaga. Now, the Pac-12 goes back to the AAC or UNLV or Texas State. Memphis has got to be interested in playing Gonzaga in conference. UNLV has to be interested in playing Gonzaga in conference. There is not one obvious path. However, if almost everything goes sideways, Texas State seems to be the obvious emergency rip cord.
Having said all of that, I hear that Sac State is committing to upgrade the football stadium. Tens of millions of dollars. The Pac-12 would be stupid to just dismiss Sac State out of hand. That said, I cannot imagine that Sac State is the first choice.
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 2, 2024 22:43:38 GMT -8
I think that the plan was to get four AAC teams to get to 10 and call it. That did not work out exactly like it was supposed to. So, the next plan was to add Utah State and UNLV to get to eight and then evaluate next steps. That did not work out exactly like it was supposed to. I think that there is a plan to get to 14 with AAC teams, but it may not work out. I think that there is a plan to add UNLV and that's it or Air Force and UNLV to get to nine. I think that an idea out there is still for the Pac-12 to get to 10 all from the Mountain West (your guess on who gets in past UNLV), get Air Force to go to the AAC, and implode the Mountain West. Things are still going on behind the scenes. The Pac-12 was working on Gonzaga. Now, the Pac-12 goes back to the AAC or UNLV or Texas State. Memphis has got to be interested in playing Gonzaga in conference. UNLV has to be interested in playing Gonzaga in conference. There is not one obvious path. However, if almost everything goes sideways, Texas State seems to be the obvious emergency rip cord. Having said all of that, I hear that Sac State is committing to upgrade the football stadium. Tens of millions of dollars. The Pac-12 would be stupid to just dismiss Sac State out of hand. That said, I cannot imagine that Sac State is the first choice. Sac St dies not have the $ or time to move to the FBS level. There is a timeline for them to count as the 8th football member. Their biggest issue is not facility or NIL dollars. It's 80+ extra schollies. If they add 40 football they need 40 for women to stay in compliance with Title IX. That's a ton of money needed annually.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 2, 2024 23:09:00 GMT -8
I think that the plan was to get four AAC teams to get to 10 and call it. That did not work out exactly like it was supposed to. So, the next plan was to add Utah State and UNLV to get to eight and then evaluate next steps. That did not work out exactly like it was supposed to. I think that there is a plan to get to 14 with AAC teams, but it may not work out. I think that there is a plan to add UNLV and that's it or Air Force and UNLV to get to nine. I think that an idea out there is still for the Pac-12 to get to 10 all from the Mountain West (your guess on who gets in past UNLV), get Air Force to go to the AAC, and implode the Mountain West. Things are still going on behind the scenes. The Pac-12 was working on Gonzaga. Now, the Pac-12 goes back to the AAC or UNLV or Texas State. Memphis has got to be interested in playing Gonzaga in conference. UNLV has to be interested in playing Gonzaga in conference. There is not one obvious path. However, if almost everything goes sideways, Texas State seems to be the obvious emergency rip cord. Having said all of that, I hear that Sac State is committing to upgrade the football stadium. Tens of millions of dollars. The Pac-12 would be stupid to just dismiss Sac State out of hand. That said, I cannot imagine that Sac State is the first choice. Sac St dies not have the $ or time to move to the FBS level. There is a timeline for them to count as the 8th football member. Their biggest issue is not facility or NIL dollars. It's 80+ extra schollies. If they add 40 football they need 40 for women to stay in compliance with Title IX. That's a ton of money needed annually. Any FBS member counts, regardless of whether or not they are transitioning. Even so, any team can announce that they are starting the transition year by early May. (I am not sure of the exact date, but teams can definitively announce that they will be playing FBS football on May 4, 2025, and count the 2025 season as the transition year. (And that is true regardless of what their schedule looks like.) So, any FCS team can become the eighth Pac-12 member, as long as they declare by May 4th (or thereabouts) in 2026. I have heard it said repeatedly that scholarships are not real money, so there is limited real concern about it. Scholarships are something that you include to balance the books or to convince the state government to allocate extra funding. Also, the numbers are wrong. 22 scholarships is the difference. And you do not have to put up all 22. You are only required to add 13 scholarships. For Sac State, just as an example, the issue is somewhat magnified because of the female/male ratio at the school. The low-end number is 15 women's scholarships. The high-end number is 27 women's scholarships. The real issue is that it is difficult to add 15-27 women's scholarships without adding at least one or two sports. And adding sports can be very expensive.
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2ndGenBeaver
Sophomore
Posts: 1,837
Grad Year: 1991 (MS/CS) 1999 (PhD/CS)
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Post by 2ndGenBeaver on Oct 3, 2024 0:33:05 GMT -8
I think the Pac-12 is now dealing with a "chicken and egg" problem. There are a couple of "get to 8+" easier options, and then there are "don't dilute the quality" possibly more expensive options. The chicken and egg problem arises from not have solid figures for the media deals. Some of the expensive option schools likely want to have a good idea of what they are running to, not just what they are running away from. The Pac-12 also needs to know how much money they can expend prying loose the remaining (quality) options, or how much they might lose by just "getting to 8+". And sizing the additive value in getting the San Marcos/Austin/San Antonio market or the Sacramento market or the Memphis market or..... The other new wrinkle might be crafting separate football and basketball media deals given the commitment of one of western hoops crown jewels (and maybe also gathering information on how valuable the additions of St. Marys and/or GCU might be with that approach). We see Sac State doing all they can to get to the Pac-12, and Texas State pausing on making an MWC move, likely related developments. The MWC likely remains a fallback for Sac State, and the Pac-12 an aspiration for Texas State. And I suspect the MWC is now going to have to wait for the Pac-12 to finalize the 8th (and beyond) member before any of their candidates commit (or entice a promotional candidate). I wonder how aggressive CW or Apple or TNT will be, and that might decide our next moves.... Go Beavers!
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Post by korculabeav on Oct 3, 2024 4:29:23 GMT -8
PAC is NOT adding Scrote State so let’s stop with that conjecture.
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Post by flyfishinbeav on Oct 3, 2024 6:42:20 GMT -8
Do we really need yet another thread of speculation of what is going on behind the scenes?
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Post by atownbeaver on Oct 3, 2024 6:54:32 GMT -8
It's very clear the Pac-12 has either completely f%#*ed up, or has a very specific strategy in mind they are still trying to leverage. They absolutely do not want to be in a big full time football conference splitting money 12 or 14 ways with UNM and Wyo and UTEP, etc. I still think they should have taken Hawai'i as a football only member, and then thrown the money you're talking about at Memphis. I don't think you can claim there is any kind of f%#* up going on. I think you can claim some things haven't landed. But it is the sausage getting made. You can also claim where we stand right now isn't a bad position. We have 7 football schools with a year and a half to go. we have 8 total schools. All the schools are better than the bottom half of the MWC. In absolutely no universe did the Pac-12 want the bottom half of the MWC. so we did first, correct, and right thing. We secured the top 4 teams. UNLV is and proved to be a political nightmare of a school. they didn't come first or second because they have to convince not only themselves it is the right move but their legislature. UNLV being bribed to stay is a curveball, but I don't think it is fair to say a f%#* up. We literally matched the staying money. Hawaii is a bottom team. Hawaii only has one possible value, it can be an automatic late night kick off nearly every week without negatively impacting that team. But the problem there is they themselves aren't actually east, so does anybody care? We aren't sitting in some terrible position right now. before this is done we are going to either A. convince a group including Memphis to join or B (I think probably the more likely one) get Texas State and maybe another Texas school like North Texas to join. And lastly, as a lot of people have noted. It appears the odds of the Pac prevailing in their lawsuit against the MWC poaching fees are pretty good. I also don't think we are done with Basketball schools. we will get one more.
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Post by 415hawaiiboy on Oct 3, 2024 7:00:35 GMT -8
My haiku:
Mountain West won’t die.
No new football conference.
Hard to kill value.
You can pull up more FBS schools from FCS but I doubt there will be any new conferences formed, unless the guys at the top of the food chain decide they want one. A conference has value, from distribution of CFP money, NCAA tournament credits, media rights and so forth. That’s one underlying reason the PAC and MWC did not merge.
A conference can also enforce their contracts and I suspect they will to the greatest extent possible.
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 3, 2024 9:51:47 GMT -8
Sac St dies not have the $ or time to move to the FBS level. There is a timeline for them to count as the 8th football member. Their biggest issue is not facility or NIL dollars. It's 80+ extra schollies. If they add 40 football they need 40 for women to stay in compliance with Title IX. That's a ton of money needed annually. Any FBS member counts, regardless of whether or not they are transitioning. Even so, any team can announce that they are starting the transition year by early May. (I am not sure of the exact date, but teams can definitively announce that they will be playing FBS football on May 4, 2025, and count the 2025 season as the transition year. (And that is true regardless of what their schedule looks like.) So, any FCS team can become the eighth Pac-12 member, as long as they declare by May 4th (or thereabouts) in 2026. I have heard it said repeatedly that scholarships are not real money, so there is limited real concern about it. Scholarships are something that you include to balance the books or to convince the state government to allocate extra funding. Also, the numbers are wrong. 22 scholarships is the difference. And you do not have to put up all 22. You are only required to add 13 scholarships. For Sac State, just as an example, the issue is somewhat magnified because of the female/male ratio at the school. The low-end number is 15 women's scholarships. The high-end number is 27 women's scholarships. The real issue is that it is difficult to add 15-27 women's scholarships without adding at least one or two sports. And adding sports can be very expensive. Yep... somehow doubled the double on schollies!?🤔 But, reading comments from other FCS admins the 210 schollies across a minimum of 16 sports and keeping Title IX in mind is the toughest budgetary concern. Along with facility upgrades also comes the increased staffing and some NCAA program requirements that not all FCS schools fully fund. And, schollies are "real" $ in terms of AD budgets. And, is an annual issue. The average FCS AD budget runs from $4-$44 mil, averages $16 mil. G5 budgets $25-$75 mil average about 43 mil. Adding schollies, sport(s) ?, facilities, staffing in many cases could be a 100-150% jump in the annual AD budget depending on the school. And, that's to be near the bottom tier of G5 schools. Schools have done it, think I saw something like 12 since 2004. Just not sure if any have had any sustained success overall?? Also I've read somewhere that the NCAA is considering another transition increase. Went from $5k to $5 mil, now thinking $11 mil! I suppose it's too keep the pie from being split further??
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Oct 3, 2024 14:29:26 GMT -8
Any FBS member counts, regardless of whether or not they are transitioning. Even so, any team can announce that they are starting the transition year by early May. (I am not sure of the exact date, but teams can definitively announce that they will be playing FBS football on May 4, 2025, and count the 2025 season as the transition year. (And that is true regardless of what their schedule looks like.) So, any FCS team can become the eighth Pac-12 member, as long as they declare by May 4th (or thereabouts) in 2026. I have heard it said repeatedly that scholarships are not real money, so there is limited real concern about it. Scholarships are something that you include to balance the books or to convince the state government to allocate extra funding. Also, the numbers are wrong. 22 scholarships is the difference. And you do not have to put up all 22. You are only required to add 13 scholarships. For Sac State, just as an example, the issue is somewhat magnified because of the female/male ratio at the school. The low-end number is 15 women's scholarships. The high-end number is 27 women's scholarships. The real issue is that it is difficult to add 15-27 women's scholarships without adding at least one or two sports. And adding sports can be very expensive. Yep... somehow doubled the double on schollies!?🤔 But, reading comments from other FCS admins the 210 schollies across a minimum of 16 sports and keeping Title IX in mind is the toughest budgetary concern. Along with facility upgrades also comes the increased staffing and some NCAA program requirements that not all FCS schools fully fund. And, schollies are "real" $ in terms of AD budgets. And, is an annual issue. The average FCS AD budget runs from $4-$44 mil, averages $16 mil. G5 budgets $25-$75 mil average about 43 mil. Adding schollies, sport(s) ?, facilities, staffing in many cases could be a 100-150% jump in the annual AD budget depending on the school. And, that's to be near the bottom tier of G5 schools. Schools have done it, think I saw something like 12 since 2004. Just not sure if any have had any sustained success overall?? Also I've read somewhere that the NCAA is considering another transition increase. Went from $5k to $5 mil, now thinking $11 mil! I suppose it's too keep the pie from being split further?? I have read differently about schollies. Maybe it is more of a thing at public school thing? It seems like a real thing to bean counters at the state level. But I do not 100% know all of the ins and the outs. The FCS started in 2006. Before, it was 1-AA. 17 FCS/1-AA schools have made the jump since 2004, and Kennesaw State is in the second year of the transition, #18. Since 1993, the numbers grow to 29 and 30 with Kennesaw State. UT-San Antonio just transitioned in 2012. If you go back to 2001, you get back to South Florida. In 1996, the Pac-12's Boise State transitioned. Additionally, in 1996, "P4" Central Florida transitioned. The increases are the P4's attempts to keep a voting majority in FBS. They are also an attempt to make more money, because new full FBS members get a share out of the P4's shares.
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Post by rgeorge on Oct 3, 2024 15:18:09 GMT -8
Yep... somehow doubled the double on schollies!?🤔 But, reading comments from other FCS admins the 210 schollies across a minimum of 16 sports and keeping Title IX in mind is the toughest budgetary concern. Along with facility upgrades also comes the increased staffing and some NCAA program requirements that not all FCS schools fully fund. And, schollies are "real" $ in terms of AD budgets. And, is an annual issue. The average FCS AD budget runs from $4-$44 mil, averages $16 mil. G5 budgets $25-$75 mil average about 43 mil. Adding schollies, sport(s) ?, facilities, staffing in many cases could be a 100-150% jump in the annual AD budget depending on the school. And, that's to be near the bottom tier of G5 schools. Schools have done it, think I saw something like 12 since 2004. Just not sure if any have had any sustained success overall?? Also I've read somewhere that the NCAA is considering another transition increase. Went from $5k to $5 mil, now thinking $11 mil! I suppose it's too keep the pie from being split further?? I have read differently about schollies. Maybe it is more of a thing at public school thing? It seems like a real thing to bean counters at the state level. But I do not 100% know all of the ins and the outs. The FCS started in 2006. Before, it was 1-AA. 17 FCS/1-AA schools have made the jump since 2004, and Kennesaw State is in the second year of the transition, #18. Since 1993, the numbers grow to 29 and 30 with Kennesaw State. UT-San Antonio just transitioned in 2012. If you go back to 2001, you get back to South Florida. In 1996, the Pac-12's Boise State transitioned. Additionally, in 1996, "P4" Central Florida transitioned. The increases are the P4's attempts to keep a voting majority in FBS. They are also an attempt to make more money, because new full FBS members get a share out of the P4's shares.I'm not sure how or what voting you speak of, or all the voting processes. But the CFP and FBS Oversight Committees are set and new FBS do not change that voting. Full alliance votes, like on the new constitution involve over 1000 members and again they vote without regard to classification. As far as CFP $, the G5 conferences split a "pool of about 9%"... a new member might make a bit more ($1.8 mil is the estimated amount for each of 64 G5 members), but at the sake of the other teams.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Oct 3, 2024 16:23:27 GMT -8
Heard on the radio today that the legal team representing the Pac in the lawsuit against the MWC might be the top anti-trust attorneys in the country. The guy they interviewed, also well-versed in anti-trust, said it's smart they filed in Federal court and it's an obvious move to force a settlement and a reduction in fees.
These attorneys also have (or still do) represent the Major League Baseball Players Association. And if you know anything about MLB labor law, the MLBPA is pretty much undefeated since the McNally-Messersmith case in the mid-1970s.
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Post by ee1990 on Oct 3, 2024 17:05:28 GMT -8
It's very clear the Pac-12 has either completely f%#*ed up, or has a very specific strategy in mind they are still trying to leverage. They absolutely do not want to be in a big full time football conference splitting money 12 or 14 ways with UNM and Wyo and UTEP, etc. I still think they should have taken Hawai'i as a football only member, and then thrown the money you're talking about at Memphis. I don't think you can claim there is any kind of f%#* up going on. I think you can claim some things haven't landed. But it is the sausage getting made. You can also claim where we stand right now isn't a bad position. We have 7 football schools with a year and a half to go. we have 8 total schools. All the schools are better than the bottom half of the MWC. In absolutely no universe did the Pac-12 want the bottom half of the MWC. so we did first, correct, and right thing. We secured the top 4 teams. UNLV is and proved to be a political nightmare of a school. they didn't come first or second because they have to convince not only themselves it is the right move but their legislature. UNLV being bribed to stay is a curveball, but I don't think it is fair to say a f%#* up. We literally matched the staying money. Hawaii is a bottom team. Hawaii only has one possible value, it can be an automatic late night kick off nearly every week without negatively impacting that team. But the problem there is they themselves aren't actually east, so does anybody care? We aren't sitting in some terrible position right now. before this is done we are going to either A. convince a group including Memphis to join or B (I think probably the more likely one) get Texas State and maybe another Texas school like North Texas to join. Hawai'i is one of the most bet upon teams in the entire nation for those very reasons. They are historically the 5th best football program of the current MWC teams, behind BSU, FSU, SDSU and the AFA. Texas State/North Texas in the Pac-12 would be an embarrassment.
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