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Post by rgeorge on May 10, 2024 13:36:20 GMT -8
The Big Ten contract is $60-$65 million, which means that UCLA is down to $50-$55 million. Had the Pac-12 stuck together, the Pac-12 contract likely would have been at least $45-$50 million.There are other assumed payments, which can affect those numbers, but they are speculative. They are just guesses. Just looking at media money, I do not believe that your statement is accurate. They literally may have taken a pay-cut on media money with the hopes that other money comes in later to offset the pay-cut. I personally believe that this was 99.99% a USC vanity project that went too far that UCLA lacked the spine to oppose. That is total speculation. Doubtful we would have been anywhere near that since the BIG 12 only got $31 million. Maybe $35-$40 million at the most if UCLA and USC stayed. And, more of a fact that that bigger $ amount was never going to exist as USC's president pretty much assured they were not staying, sort of forcing UCLA's hand as a B10 partner. Also, the Calimony is not coming out of the athletic budget, but from general funds coming from the State. The State of Cali is paying Cal, not UCLA. UCLA's finances have not been managed well, but their financial resources are very rich/deep. As far as Olympic sports/athletes rebelling... well, until you see their programs drop off the map due to poor recruiting it is all words. UCLA, Westwood is exactly where most kids would love to live and play. Those that whine will do so all the way to the tarmac, then board the planes and play. There are talented kids "lined up" who would love to see UCLA have openings.
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Post by grayman on May 10, 2024 13:41:39 GMT -8
That is total speculation. Doubtful we would have been anywhere near that since the BIG 12 only got $31 million. Maybe $35-$40 million at the most if UCLA and USC stayed. And, more of a fact that that bigger $ amount was never going to exist as USC's president pretty much assured they were not staying, sort of forcing UCLA's hand as a B10 partner. Also, the Calimony is not coming out of the athletic budget, but from general funds coming from the State. The State of Cali is paying Cal, not UCLA. UCLA's finances have not been managed well, but their financial resources are very rich/deep. As far as Olympic sports/athletes rebelling... well, until you see their programs drop off the map due to poor recruiting it is all words. UCLA, Westwood is exactly where most kids would love to live and play. Those that whine will do so all the way to the tarmac, then board the planes and play. There are talented kids "lined up" who would love to see UCLA have openings. Good catch. So UCLA will reportedly pull in about $65 million and will just have the extra travel expenses to deal with.
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Post by rgeorge on May 10, 2024 14:01:03 GMT -8
And, more of a fact that that bigger $ amount was never going to exist as USC's president pretty much assured they were not staying, sort of forcing UCLA's hand as a B10 partner. Also, the Calimony is not coming out of the athletic budget, but from general funds coming from the State. The State of Cali is paying Cal, not UCLA. UCLA's finances have not been managed well, but their financial resources are very rich/deep. As far as Olympic sports/athletes rebelling... well, until you see their programs drop off the map due to poor recruiting it is all words. UCLA, Westwood is exactly where most kids would love to live and play. Those that whine will do so all the way to the tarmac, then board the planes and play. There are talented kids "lined up" who would love to see UCLA have openings. Good catch. So UCLA will reportedly pull in about $65 million and will just have the extra travel expenses to deal with. Plus some seem to forget the numbers that are bandied about for the new ESPN CFP deal. B10 and SEC schools to see about $21 mil annually or the purported $1.3B thru 2032. So, that gets you up to mid $80s and the B10 has increases. It was a no brainer for UCLA once the Pac12 was the Pac11 or less.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 10, 2024 14:12:38 GMT -8
It doesn't matter. The Pac-12 is dead. UCLA will get plenty of money even with Calimony and extra travel expenses. UCLA is in a way better situation moving forward than OSU and WSU are. Or wait five years for when UCLA is in the "super league" and spending more than $100 M on football/NIL and still not coming anywhere close to challenging for a national title, and its Olympic sports athletes have rebelled against all the unnecessary travel. Will that happen? I don't know, any more than you know that UCLA will be in a better situation. Time will tell. In 1861 South Carolina was absolutely certain it made the right choice to secede from the Union. South Carolina declared that it intended to secede from the United States on November 9, 1860. There was an election on December 6, 1860, to elect representatives to vote on Secession. The representatives began to meet on December 17, 1860, and passed the Ordinance of Secession on December 20, 1860 in a 169-0 vote, and issued its Declaration of Secession on Christmas Eve 1860 (the Monday after the Ordinance of Secession passed). Things seemed to be going well for South Carolina up until about November 8, 1861, when Port Royal Sound fell. After that, the Union was able to start really imposing the Anaconda Plan on South Carolina, blocking shipping in and out of Charleston. Things began to go badly for South Carolina thereafter, but I am sure that they were mostly very happy with what they had done up until that point. The leading Unionist in South Carolina was James L. Petigru. He was opposed to the expansion of slavery but somewhat more ambivalent about slavery itself. After Andrew Jackson became President, he headed up the pro-Union faction in South Carolina, generally fighting against secessionists and also against people who looked to expand slavery in South Carolina. From 1859-1862, he put together the codification of the laws of the State of South Carolina, completing the task in 1862. Petigru died on March 9, 1863, in Charleston. After the Ordinance of Secession passed, he famously remarked that "South Carolina is too small for a republic and too large for an insane asylum." He opposed the Confederate government but was allowed to continue codifying the laws of the State of South Carolina. Although he opposed the Confederate government, he mourned South Carolina's battle losses. Because of his outspoken Unionism, the unreconstructed government of South Carolina rejected Petigru's codification of the laws of South Carolina in 1865. However, his codification was accepted after the South Carolina government was reconstructed in 1872.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 10, 2024 14:21:17 GMT -8
The Big Ten contract is $60-$65 million, which means that UCLA is down to $50-$55 million. Had the Pac-12 stuck together, the Pac-12 contract likely would have been at least $45-$50 million.There are other assumed payments, which can affect those numbers, but they are speculative. They are just guesses. Just looking at media money, I do not believe that your statement is accurate. They literally may have taken a pay-cut on media money with the hopes that other money comes in later to offset the pay-cut. I personally believe that this was 99.99% a USC vanity project that went too far that UCLA lacked the spine to oppose. That is total speculation. Doubtful we would have been anywhere near that since the BIG 12 only got $31 million. Maybe $35-$40 million at the most if UCLA and USC stayed. The Big 12 only got $31 million, because they lacked Oklahoma and Texas wanted to undercut the Pac-12. From valuations that I have seen, the media rights for USC by itself is worth something in the neighborhood of $180-$185 million per year by itself! If UCLA is worth $60-$65 million, that is $240-$250 million. On the low side, the full 12-team Pac-12 would have been worth $45 million per year as an absolute floor for a 12-team Pac-12. And there is 0% chance that the Big 12 could have undercut the Pac-12 with USC still a member. No, your numbers are low. I am going to stick to $45-$50 million (and that is a very, very conservative estimate). I do not see how UCLA makes money on the move. It is possible, but I just do not see it.
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Post by Judge Smails on May 10, 2024 14:38:15 GMT -8
That is total speculation. Doubtful we would have been anywhere near that since the BIG 12 only got $31 million. Maybe $35-$40 million at the most if UCLA and USC stayed. The Big 12 only got $31 million, because they lacked Oklahoma and Texas wanted to undercut the Pac-12. From valuations that I have seen, the media rights for USC by itself is worth something in the neighborhood of $180-$185 million per year by itself! If UCLA is worth $60-$65 million, that is $240-$250 million. On the low side, the full 12-team Pac-12 would have been worth $45 million per year as an absolute floor for a 12-team Pac-12. And there is 0% chance that the Big 12 could have undercut the Pac-12 with USC still a member. No, your numbers are low.I am going to stick to $45-$50 million (and that is a very, very conservative estimate). I do not see how UCLA makes money on the move. It is possible, but I just do not see it. Impossible to prove, just like your numbers.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 10, 2024 20:00:53 GMT -8
The Big 12 only got $31 million, because they lacked Oklahoma and Texas wanted to undercut the Pac-12. From valuations that I have seen, the media rights for USC by itself is worth something in the neighborhood of $180-$185 million per year by itself! If UCLA is worth $60-$65 million, that is $240-$250 million. On the low side, the full 12-team Pac-12 would have been worth $45 million per year as an absolute floor for a 12-team Pac-12. And there is 0% chance that the Big 12 could have undercut the Pac-12 with USC still a member. No, your numbers are low.I am going to stick to $45-$50 million (and that is a very, very conservative estimate). I do not see how UCLA makes money on the move. It is possible, but I just do not see it. Impossible to prove, just like your numbers. Which number of mine is wrong? The 10 remaining Pac-12 teams were worth about $310 million (i.e. $31 million per team), UCLA was worth $60-$65 million. USC was worth $180-$185 million. Which one is wrong?
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Post by Judge Smails on May 10, 2024 20:13:05 GMT -8
Impossible to prove, just like your numbers. Which number of mine is wrong? The 10 remaining Pac-12 teams were worth about $310 million (i.e. $31 million per team), UCLA was worth $60-$65 million. USC was worth $180-$185 million. Which one is wrong? According to who? You? No f%#*ing way. There was never an offer because they left. You have no case, Esquire.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 10, 2024 20:54:22 GMT -8
Which number of mine is wrong? The 10 remaining Pac-12 teams were worth about $310 million (i.e. $31 million per team), UCLA was worth $60-$65 million. USC was worth $180-$185 million. Which one is wrong? According to who? You? No f%#*ing way. There was never an offer because they left. You have no case, Esquire. Dude. You are trying your damnedest to move the goalpost on this one. You said that it was definitively a better deal for UCLA apropos of absolutely nothing. It is your burden. You have not carried it. My case is that you cannot carry your burden. I cannot definitively disprove your negative, and I do not have to. I just have to show that you are probably not correct.
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Post by Judge Smails on May 11, 2024 5:29:54 GMT -8
According to who? You? No f%#*ing way. There was never an offer because they left. You have no case, Esquire. Dude. You are trying your damnedest to move the goalpost on this one. You said that it was definitively a better deal for UCLA apropos of absolutely nothing. It is your burden. You have not carried it. My case is that you cannot carry your burden. I cannot definitively disprove your negative, and I do not have to. I just have to show that you are probably not correct. You haven’t “shown” anything. We have different opinions. That is all.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on May 11, 2024 6:28:27 GMT -8
Last night, it looked to me as if UCLA baseball has already dropped off the map. They are 6-19 in the conference and 16-31 overall.
Yes, we shall see how all the travel impacts their other sports teams. Right now for baseball, knowing what lies ahead doesn't look promising.
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Post by hottubbeaver on May 14, 2024 11:51:49 GMT -8
The Big Ten contract is $60-$65 million, which means that UCLA is down to $50-$55 million. Had the Pac-12 stuck together, the Pac-12 contract likely would have been at least $45-$50 million.There are other assumed payments, which can affect those numbers, but they are speculative. They are just guesses. Just looking at media money, I do not believe that your statement is accurate. They literally may have taken a pay-cut on media money with the hopes that other money comes in later to offset the pay-cut. I personally believe that this was 99.99% a USC vanity project that went too far that UCLA lacked the spine to oppose. That is total speculation. Doubtful we would have been anywhere near that since the BIG 12 only got $31 million. Maybe $35-$40 million at the most if UCLA and USC stayed. I don't think Wilky is off by much for a full PAC 12 media deal, as opposed to a PAC 10 media deal. Is the B12 number you cited with UT and OU or post UT and OU?
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Post by grayman on May 14, 2024 12:50:05 GMT -8
That is total speculation. Doubtful we would have been anywhere near that since the BIG 12 only got $31 million. Maybe $35-$40 million at the most if UCLA and USC stayed. I don't think Wilky is off by much for a full PAC 12 media deal, as opposed to a PAC 10 media deal. Is the B12 number you cited with UT and OU or post UT and OU? The new Big 12 deal is at $31.7 million per team The problem for the Pac-12 was the timing. Money had gotten tight among broadcasting companies. It really boils down to that more than anything else. Without a big number deal in hand from TV, schools chose to break away. Would have the Pac-12 gotten Big 12 numbers without USC and UCLA otherwise? Yes. I would guess more.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on May 20, 2024 15:04:04 GMT -8
Cupcakes may have been too strong of a word. But, the 3 I mentioned (very specifically left the condoms out of it) WILL regret the move, even money wise. Don't forget they are NOT getting the $60+ million a year the rest of the B1G are getting, they are getting 30ish. That financial disparity, plus extra travel wear and tear and cost WILL result in less competitive teams, in a conference that even at their best the like of the *ucks et al were going to have a hard time consistently vying for championships. The goal isnt to consistently beat Maryland and Rutgers... the goal is to win conference championships and compete for national championships. In the old, or new, Pac-whatever-number, the *ucks and fuskies COULD have been that top tier dog, like Ohio State and Michigan will be in the B1G, my prediction is they will never even be as relevant in the B1G as the Beavs have been in the Pac-12. Will they do better in some of the olympic sports or baseball? Maybe, but does it matter? Other than us fans doesn't seem like anyone care about gymnastics and baseball in the grand scheme of things, certainly media and revenue don't care about them. My original point is that WE SHOULD NOT want to be in the B1G, so why discuss it or if we need AAU status or whatever. If the Big 12 really does come a calling with a new western division idea... ok we should listen. But even if B1G wanted us at the 30 million dollar payout just like u of ho, I would hope Murthy and Barnes say no.They wouldn't say no. But yes, if the Big 12 comes calling, that's a much better fit for OSU and WSU, IMO. This article flywareagle.com/posts/rumor-pac-12-anticipated-pursue-expansion-very-soon from the other day lays out several possibilities. Starts with Pac-12 expansion likely soon, then goes into other possibilities. It's all rumors and conjecture for now. Thought I'd post a link, most recent rumors I've seen.
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Post by grayman on May 20, 2024 16:09:34 GMT -8
They wouldn't say no. But yes, if the Big 12 comes calling, that's a much better fit for OSU and WSU, IMO. This article flywareagle.com/posts/rumor-pac-12-anticipated-pursue-expansion-very-soon from the other day lays out several possibilities. Starts with Pac-12 expansion likely soon, then goes into other possibilities. It's all rumors and conjecture for now. Thought I'd post a link, most recent rumors I've seen. Page comes up as a 404 error... What was the gist? Nevermind, I found it on the flywareagle site. Basically a short rundown of possible outcomes...a Pac-12 rebuild with MWC and AAC schools, joining the Big-12 or joining the ACC...
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