|
|
Post by grayman on Jan 4, 2024 11:07:43 GMT -8
As far as the ACC, I wonder if they might be talking about a possible football-only agreement.
I would be a little hesitant to make a deal with the ACC considering the shaky ground it sits on right now but maybe that's the whole point. Maybe the ACC is interested in bringing in OSU and WSU to help solidify the situation if FSU and maybe a few others leave.
Either way, I think joining the ACC as a football-only member could work very well. You would have WSU, Cal and Stanford to play on the West Coast, along with the option to stay regional with the nonconference games as well. If you play SMU consistently, that's at least six or so games a year that won't require travel to the East Coast.
It probably would be toughest for men's and women's basketball to wind up in the MWC or WCC or wherever. The other programs should be fine. Maybe wrestling and baseball wind up in the Big 12. Gymnastics could go there as well but should be able to do just fine as an independent.
|
|
|
|
Post by orangeattack on Jan 4, 2024 12:52:48 GMT -8
College athletics is in such utter turmoil right now that it behooves OSU/WSU to keep the cards close to the vest and see how the landscape evolves over the next 2 years while they have a waiver from the NCAA to operate as a 2 member conference.
The MWC reverse merger only makes sense if you believe that the Pac2 doesn't have any more time. The doomsday folks who were insisting that it's the only option for OSU because of the rest of the sports never saw WCC as an option. There are other options out there.
There is a solid 2 years to come up with a better plan. Reverse merger with the MWC, that's the worst-case scenario, the only ones who are hoping for that outcome are the members of the Mountain West.
The longer this stretches out, the more I feel confident that grayman is closer to the right track. We are clearly investigating all kinds of creative alignments.
|
|
|
|
Post by flyfishinbeav on Jan 4, 2024 13:16:59 GMT -8
College athletics is in such utter turmoil right now that it behooves OSU/WSU to keep the cards close to the vest and see how the landscape evolves over the next 2 years while they have a waiver from the NCAA to operate as a 2 member conference. The MWC reverse merger only makes sense if you believe that the Pac2 doesn't have any more time. The doomsday folks who were insisting that it's the only option for OSU because of the rest of the sports never saw WCC as an option. There are other options out there. There is a solid 2 years to come up with a better plan. Reverse merger with the MWC, that's the worst-case scenario, the only ones who are hoping for that outcome are the members of the Mountain West. The longer this stretches out, the more I feel confident that grayman is closer to the right track. We are clearly investigating all kinds of creative alignments. I find it interesting that you would call those who are for MW reverse engineering as "doomsday". Seems to me, most of em would typically be referred to as "sunshine pumpers" as in........"stop worrying about the big12, accept the MW merger, and it'll all work out.".....and I get that these folks would still be pumping sunshine if we dropped down to FCS......they do not want to hear any venting about our situation. I agree that a reverse merger with the MW is a last option kind of thing if we don't find a better option once the dust settles. I'm still hopeful based on, like you said, the "turmoil.".....this is far from over. |
|
|
|
Post by grayman on Jan 4, 2024 13:32:55 GMT -8
College athletics is in such utter turmoil right now that it behooves OSU/WSU to keep the cards close to the vest and see how the landscape evolves over the next 2 years while they have a waiver from the NCAA to operate as a 2 member conference. The MWC reverse merger only makes sense if you believe that the Pac2 doesn't have any more time. The doomsday folks who were insisting that it's the only option for OSU because of the rest of the sports never saw WCC as an option. There are other options out there. There is a solid 2 years to come up with a better plan. Reverse merger with the MWC, that's the worst-case scenario, the only ones who are hoping for that outcome are the members of the Mountain West. The longer this stretches out, the more I feel confident that grayman is closer to the right track. We are clearly investigating all kinds of creative alignments. I find it interesting that you would call those who are for MW reverse engineering as "doomsday". Seems to me, most of em would typically be referred to as "sunshine pumpers" as in........"stop worrying about the big12, accept the MW merger, and it'll all work out.".....and I get that these folks would still be pumping sunshine if we dropped down to FCS......they do not want to hear any venting about our situation. I agree that a reverse merger with the MW is a last option kind of thing if we don't find a better option once the dust settles. I'm still hopeful based on, like you said, the "turmoil.".....this is far from over. A lot of those posters have been calling me negative for thinking that a full reverse merger with the MWC would not be a good thing and a big step back and wanting to keep OSU as close as possible to what it has been in the Pac-12 by working to get into a "power" conference if at all possible. Funny how that works out. As it stands right now, I'm far from negative about OSU's immediate future as a member of the Pac-2. But that's a temporary situation. |
|
|
|
Post by orangeattack on Jan 4, 2024 14:24:00 GMT -8
College athletics is in such utter turmoil right now that it behooves OSU/WSU to keep the cards close to the vest and see how the landscape evolves over the next 2 years while they have a waiver from the NCAA to operate as a 2 member conference. The MWC reverse merger only makes sense if you believe that the Pac2 doesn't have any more time. The doomsday folks who were insisting that it's the only option for OSU because of the rest of the sports never saw WCC as an option. There are other options out there. There is a solid 2 years to come up with a better plan. Reverse merger with the MWC, that's the worst-case scenario, the only ones who are hoping for that outcome are the members of the Mountain West. The longer this stretches out, the more I feel confident that grayman is closer to the right track. We are clearly investigating all kinds of creative alignments. I find it interesting that you would call those who are for MW reverse engineering as "doomsday". Seems to me, most of em would typically be referred to as "sunshine pumpers" as in........"stop worrying about the big12, accept the MW merger, and it'll all work out.".....and I get that these folks would still be pumping sunshine if we dropped down to FCS......they do not want to hear any venting about our situation. I agree that a reverse merger with the MW is a last option kind of thing if we don't find a better option once the dust settles. I'm still hopeful based on, like you said, the "turmoil.".....this is far from over. Doomsday is my personal take on the MW reverse merger, because the money from the media deal would not be competitive relative to the remaining P4 deals. I believe resolutely that there are better options. |
|
|
|
Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Jan 4, 2024 14:54:52 GMT -8
I'm thinking the ACC is out unless their media deal gets scrapped. They are locked into a deal until 2037. That's the same type of sounds good at first but sucks down the line because you paid no attention to future values type of deal the Pac-12 did a dozen years back.
I personally would prefer OSU and WSU not to go to the Big 12, if out of nothing but principle - they already screwed us.
I dont believe a media deal with a newly and smartly rebuilt Pac-12 is a total loser, especially if Apple plays along and still offers the escalator clause they offered. If that exists, the league could potentially be bringing in some decent $$ down the line.
If I were calling percentages right now, I'd say 80-85% likelihood we have a new Pac-12 conference in the 2026 season and beyond, with a reverse merger being half to 2/3rds of the remaining percentage...
Unless all heck breaks loose and the whole FBS conference system fundamentally changes - and that possibility exists.
|
|
|
|
Post by grayman on Jan 4, 2024 15:31:34 GMT -8
I'm thinking the ACC is out unless their media deal gets scrapped. They are locked into a deal until 2037. That's the same type of sounds good at first but sucks down the line because you paid no attention to future values type of deal the Pac-12 did a dozen years back. I personally would prefer OSU and WSU not to go to the Big 12, if out of nothing but principle - they already screwed us. I dont believe a media deal with a newly and smartly rebuilt Pac-12 is a total loser, especially if Apple plays along and still offers the escalator clause they offered. If that exists, the league could potentially be bringing in some decent $$ down the line. If I were calling percentages right now, I'd say 80-85% likelihood we have a new Pac-12 conference in the 2026 season and beyond, with a reverse merger being half to 2/3rds of the remaining percentage... Unless all heck breaks loose and the whole FBS conference system fundamentally changes - and that possibility exists. The media deal becomes optional in 2027. It's not going to keep FSU from leaving and starting a domino effect in the ACC. I get not being happy with Yormark and the Big 12 not wanting to take OSU and WSU right away. But I believe he went with the Arizona schools, Colorado and Utah in part because they are much closer to the Big 12 footprint. I don't believe he has some problem with OSU and WSU as far as what they bring as far as athletics. But I do believe he has been waiting on the ACC to see what schools, if any, he can grab. So I believe that what happens to the ACC is really a big key to where OSU and WSU might land. The Big 12 might want to add them to fill out a coast to coast lineup. This would eliminate the arrival of a new Pac and entrench the Big 12 while the Big Ten and SEC are in the final stages of building their super conference/tier. I believe the ACC could be open to adding the Pac-2 now with the very real threat of upheaval. That could come in the form of a straightforward addition or some sort of PACC agreement with pods on both coasts. IMO, a rebuilt Pac with mostly (or all) MWC schools along with OSU and WSU just won't move the needle as far as making a good enough media deal. |
|
|
|
Post by orangeattack on Jan 4, 2024 16:12:34 GMT -8
I'm thinking the ACC is out unless their media deal gets scrapped. They are locked into a deal until 2037. That's the same type of sounds good at first but sucks down the line because you paid no attention to future values type of deal the Pac-12 did a dozen years back. I personally would prefer OSU and WSU not to go to the Big 12, if out of nothing but principle - they already screwed us. I dont believe a media deal with a newly and smartly rebuilt Pac-12 is a total loser, especially if Apple plays along and still offers the escalator clause they offered. If that exists, the league could potentially be bringing in some decent $$ down the line. If I were calling percentages right now, I'd say 80-85% likelihood we have a new Pac-12 conference in the 2026 season and beyond, with a reverse merger being half to 2/3rds of the remaining percentage... Unless all heck breaks loose and the whole FBS conference system fundamentally changes - and that possibility exists. What's a total loser to you? Apple was coming to the Pac10/9 with $30M per year, with incentives that could take it higher. The MWC media deal is worth $6M per year. To me, a $20M per year deal is a total loser. It's less than what OSU was pulling in under the Pac12's expiring deal, by a lot. This money matters, a lot. You're not going to just "make do with less" or some other such pie-in-the-sky nonsense, you're going to cut funding and you're going to lose coaches and staff. Would it be possible to claw back to a point where it is "potentially bringing in some decent $$ down the line" well sure. But in the meantime, things are going to be rough. Momentum will be tough to gather, momentum that Oregon State has fought hard to generate these last 2 and a half decades. What's my point? I don't even really know anymore, except to say that refusing to join the Big 12 because they previously didn't extend an offer is roughly tantamount to refusing to get in a lifeboat as the Titanic is sinking out of sheer stupid hubris. |
|
|
|
Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jan 4, 2024 17:02:39 GMT -8
I find it interesting that you would call those who are for MW reverse engineering as "doomsday". Seems to me, most of em would typically be referred to as "sunshine pumpers" as in........"stop worrying about the big12, accept the MW merger, and it'll all work out.".....and I get that these folks would still be pumping sunshine if we dropped down to FCS......they do not want to hear any venting about our situation. I agree that a reverse merger with the MW is a last option kind of thing if we don't find a better option once the dust settles. I'm still hopeful based on, like you said, the "turmoil.".....this is far from over. Doomsday is my personal take on the MW reverse merger, because the money from the media deal would not be competitive relative to the remaining P4 deals. I believe resolutely that there are better options. If Oregon State could get to say $20 million per year from media, that may be comparable to other Power Four universities, because the Beavers' overhead should be lower. I would also point out that BYU weathered being an independent in football and a West Coast Conference team in all other sports for 12 years. They did this by killing it in donations, making a comparable amount to Utah did in the Pac-12 in the same period of time. Doomsday is trying to do something like this during a huge economic downturn or trying to do the same thing after a seismic media shift for the worse. That said, Oregon State is probably in a better spot than BYU was in 2011. You either make lemonade or you OD from all of the citric acid |
|
|
|
Post by rgeorge on Jan 4, 2024 17:35:50 GMT -8
News I learned reading the last few posts: - the ACC media suddenly becomes optional in 2027. From reading contract info, NOPE. - if FSU wins a GOR court case the ACC will disband. Again them winning has a negligible chance considering the contract and pocketbook of the media companies. Also, if FSU does win there are many schools still tied to said contract not part of said lawsuit. Are they too going to file and fight?And, will they if they have no other destination? - that $10, $15, $20 million media deal is worse than $0, no media deal that we currently don't have. - if a reverse merger happens the current MWC media deal of $5-6 million per team would stay exactly the same. That OSU would still be getting the "old" media deal amount even though it'd be expired and be negotiated at today's rates/climate with two new teams that are a upgrade. - that despite how dumb the other "10" were to enter these other conferences. Not enough $, extensive travel, not looking out for the welfare if student athletes, etc, it is now the best course of action for OSU. Versus building a conference of similar west coast universities. Similar especially if the NIL continues down an unfettered path. More than future media contracts may influence new conference realignment, NIL policies and who chooses to adopt them might determine the media deals that form conferences. Until the NCAA, and/or whatever organization is formed, sets policies that are enforced by legislation standing pat as the Pac2 might be best?! Rebuilding what we can during the next 2 years may allow time to get a clearer picture. It may allow a clear path without taking multiple paths. Who knows? Ah yes... nobody. That's the sh&t of it. Decent article on FSU/ACC... www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/39161391/florida-state-vs-acc-grant-rights-lawsuit-questions-answered |
|
|
|
Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Jan 4, 2024 17:54:11 GMT -8
I'm thinking the ACC is out unless their media deal gets scrapped. They are locked into a deal until 2037. That's the same type of sounds good at first but sucks down the line because you paid no attention to future values type of deal the Pac-12 did a dozen years back. I personally would prefer OSU and WSU not to go to the Big 12, if out of nothing but principle - they already screwed us. I dont believe a media deal with a newly and smartly rebuilt Pac-12 is a total loser, especially if Apple plays along and still offers the escalator clause they offered. If that exists, the league could potentially be bringing in some decent $$ down the line. If I were calling percentages right now, I'd say 80-85% likelihood we have a new Pac-12 conference in the 2026 season and beyond, with a reverse merger being half to 2/3rds of the remaining percentage... Unless all heck breaks loose and the whole FBS conference system fundamentally changes - and that possibility exists. What's a total loser to you? Apple was coming to the Pac10/9 with $30M per year, with incentives that could take it higher. The MWC media deal is worth $6M per year. To me, a $20M per year deal is a total loser. It's less than what OSU was pulling in under the Pac12's expiring deal, by a lot. This money matters, a lot. You're not going to just "make do with less" or some other such pie-in-the-sky nonsense, you're going to cut funding and you're going to lose coaches and staff. Would it be possible to claw back to a point where it is "potentially bringing in some decent $$ down the line" well sure. But in the meantime, things are going to be rough. Momentum will be tough to gather, momentum that Oregon State has fought hard to generate these last 2 and a half decades. What's my point? I don't even really know anymore, except to say that refusing to join the Big 12 because they previously didn't extend an offer is roughly tantamount to refusing to get in a lifeboat as the Titanic is sinking out of sheer stupid hubris. I would consider Apple coming in at 20 mil a team a temporary loser. I put the words "newly" and "smartly" in there for a reason. I think the Pac Presidents (basically it was UW that killed it) who didn't like the deal Apple offered are short term thinkers, that deal coulda been huge. Uncle Phil was said to have loved it, and he understands growth. That deal's gone, but it would've clobbered the money the 8 that left when it all fell apart are getting in a fairly short period of time. The Pac-2 would need to be smart in putting together a new league... get BSU, get Fresno, get SDSU, get one or both Colorado schools, and get UNLV, then be very smart with your choices in the next 4-6 teams and make sure they are from big markets in football hotbeds, and it will build and have subscription power over time. BSU, OSU and WSU would be the smallest markets. It supposedly would have taken 1.7 million subscriptions to match the BIG 12 deal, I think the old Pac 12's leftover 10 teams would have done that in very short order. The new league is probably going to need more teams to get the same number of eyeballs, the break even point they need to top to get the escalators may or may not be higher than before, but I think it will be doable in time. Apple currently has a billion paying subscribers for the combined total of their services, but unfortunately only 25 million paying for TV (with another 75 million getting free trials based on their other subscriptions or equipment purchases) . Apple potentially has a billion customers worldwide to blast a few free games to in hopes they might be interested in a football subscription. The big question is, is the service they had planned really as revolutionary as Barnes and a few others have claimed it to be... imagine being able to follow specific players in a game... at which point even football fans of other teams very well may be interested in signing up. Apple will have a lot invested in football if they are still interested, it'll behoove them to make it work to the benefit of both Apple and the league. I get the feeling once Apple has proof of concept, that escalator clause will go away for the next conferences, and they'll be getting flat rate offers or smaller escalators. I'd rather we get in on the ground floor. It's a slow and risky road to travel, but in the meanwhile, as Wilky points out above, by staying local and keeping expenses down we may not be far off where we were if all of our sports teams had to travel to Big 12 country half or more of the time. Maybe the entrepreneurial spirit in me is overpowering the tentative and fearful side of me, I think it could be worth the risk. The Pac 12 was hurt greatly in this round of negotiations because the overall economic environment sucked most of the last 3 years, it'll be interesting to see where it is in a couple years if we're negotiating a media contract for a newly expanded Pac-12. |
|
|
|
Post by grayman on Jan 4, 2024 18:09:47 GMT -8
News I learned reading the last few posts: - the ACC media suddenly becomes optional in 2027. From reading contract info, NOPE.- if FSU wins a GOR court case the ACC will disband. Again them winning has a negligible chance considering the contract and pocketbook of the media companies. Also, if FSU does win there are many schools still tied to said contract not part of said lawsuit. Are they too going to file and fight?And, will they if they have no other destination? - that $10, $15, $20 million media deal is worse than $0, no media deal that we currently don't have. - if a reverse merger happens the current MWC media deal of $5-6 million per team would stay exactly the same. That OSU would still be getting the "old" media deal amount even though it'd be expired and be negotiated at today's rates/climate with two new teams that are a upgrade. - that despite how dumb the other "10" were to enter these other conferences. Not enough $, extensive travel, not looking out for the welfare if student athletes, etc, it is now the best course of action for OSU. Versus building a conference of similar west coast universities. Similar especially if the NIL continues down an unfettered path. More than future media contracts may influence new conference realignment, NIL policies and who chooses to adopt them might determine the media deals that form conferences. Until the NCAA, and/or whatever organization is formed, sets policies that are enforced by legislation standing pat as the Pac2 might be best?! Rebuilding what we can during the next 2 years may allow time to get a clearer picture. It may allow a clear path without taking multiple paths. Who knows? Ah yes... nobody. That's the sh&t of it. Decent article on FSU/ACC... www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/39161391/florida-state-vs-acc-grant-rights-lawsuit-questions-answeredOK, to clarify, FSU is saying this. But if you read ESPN's story on the whole will FSU leave issue (the very one you linked), it is not denied: "There is one caveat to all of this. The lawsuit claims that the ACC's current deal with ESPN contains a unilateral option for the TV network in 2027 that must be exercised by February 2025 to extend the deal to 2036. So, if that were the case, ESPN could walk away from the deal in 14 months. Although the grant of rights is a separate document from the television contract, the two are tied together. If ESPN walks away, does that mean the grant of rights is no longer valid because there is no longer a multimedia rights deal? Or does the grant of rights carry on through 2036 no matter what? That remains unclear." Also, Nicole Auerbach: "FSU lawyer says that ESPN has a "unilateral" right to exercise a nine-year option to extend its media deal with the ACC from 2027 through 2036. (Which it hasn't yet.) Right now, there is no guaranteed media rights revenue for ACC members past 2027." You can believe what you want here but IMO it's extremely doubtful that FSU is wrong about this. |
|
|
|
Post by rgeorge on Jan 4, 2024 18:24:12 GMT -8
Meaning FSU has no option. ESPN does. And, has the option to keep the deal as is, or can choose to renegotiate.
But, FSU is tied to the deal and whatever ESPN decides by the deadline.
|
|
|
|
Post by grayman on Jan 4, 2024 18:39:00 GMT -8
Meaning FSU has no option. ESPN does. And, has the option to keep the deal as is, or can choose to renegotiate. But, FSU is tied to the deal and whatever ESPN decides by the deadline. When FSU leaves the ACC, it will be up to ESPN to make a decision on extending the broadcast agreement. You can go on thinking that this will keep FSU from leaving. IMO, it won't. Whether the school wins the lawsuit or it gets settled or it gains enough support among other ACC schools that also want to leave or it just cuts a big check to get out. |
|
|
|
Post by Judge Smails on Jan 4, 2024 18:43:19 GMT -8
Meaning FSU has no option. ESPN does. And, has the option to keep the deal as is, or can choose to renegotiate. But, FSU is tied to the deal and whatever ESPN decides by the deadline. When FSU leaves the ACC, it will be up to ESPN to make a decision on extending the broadcast agreement. You can go on thinking that this will keep FSU from leaving. IMO, it won't. Whether the school wins the lawsuit or it gets settled or it just cuts a big check to get out. It’s estimated to be upwards of $572 million between the exit fee and losing their media revenue from wherever they end up. You think they will just cut a check? Hard to see them cutting the check if they lose the lawsuit. |
|
