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Post by Werebeaver on Dec 3, 2023 8:06:02 GMT -8
This was a very odd game. WK is in the top 25 in steals and top 40 in fewest turnovers, and OSU tied them with 5 steals. AJ is now a three point specialist and not so great at med. shots. The exact opposite from last year. Talia made some uncharacteristic mistakes on defense. I'm worried that her shooting problems are bleeding into the rest of her game. And the team really needs her to keep up her play to be successful. She's the teams best guard defender, passer, and rebounder. They need her even while she works on getting her shot back. Rees vs Gardiner- Rees just isn't the all around player that Gardiner is. I think SR wants Rees to be the defensive backbone (Mit replacement) for the team and I don't think that's going to work. And if he doesn't give Gardiner more playing time she's going to be gone at the end of the season. SR is treating her like she's just Beers backup and she's too good to take that as her lot on the team. Hunter is an amazing find at PG but she has limitations. Zaay, Mead in this game, tends to eat Hunter alive with head fakes etc. And OSU just doesn't have that kind of guard for her to practice against. I just hope Beers is all right. We are one injury from total collapse. If its Reagon! She is not 100 percent and this is the beginning of season, big concern! Gardiner has lost mobility to her knee injury this has affected her overall skill set! Donavan skill set is diminished assist and points when talia takes over. So what do we need more defense and points or talia Taking sssists away from donavan, cough! We don’t get AJ and Dom together as are wings before pac 12 dom will be overwhelmed by pac 12 start. One mans stunky old arm pit of opinion Did you enjoy the win? |
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Post by bdudbeaver on Dec 3, 2023 9:20:39 GMT -8
First game I attended this year. Good win. I've always been a big AJ fan, and if she can hit 3s like that this year, she can score 20+ every game. She made a couple from 10 feet, which is a big reason I like her, but also had a few of those rim out.
I was impressed with Donovyn at PG. Doesn't make mistakes, brings the ball up without drama, so unlike last year. Her shot form looks good.
Talia is a great passer, then throws some sloppy ones. Seems afraid to shoot. She passed up some 5 footers to throw it out for an open 3. To get out of her slump, she should take and make some of those easy ones.
Not a great game, in my eye, for Raegan. She got 5 offensive boards off her own misses. They way overplay her to go right, and she never once went left, so the scouting report was correct.
Maybe I am demanding perfection in the 1st week of December. We did win easily.
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Post by hoopheritic on Dec 3, 2023 10:25:16 GMT -8
6-0 Thoughts
1) Rotation: The 8+ player rotation appears to be coming into focus - Raegan, Kelsey, AJ, Talia, Dono, Timea, Lily, Kennedie, *Dom. First out of the rotation is Dom as 3 & D from our wings is what we need (see AJ) and she isn't great at either. She's a project but a worthy investment in our future.
2) Much Improved: This team is a better team than last year. Full stop. Players who haven't gotten better since last year will have reduced usage until they can rise to meet the reality. We're seeing this with Talia and Adlee mostly. Talia seems to be doing fine with the change and facilitating well rather than being a shoot first player. Adlee has to get better at defending in space. Almost every time she's on the floor, so far, she looks great on offense then gets cooked on defense. As conference play starts everything could change.
3) Experience: Rueck, as always, will rely on experience. I expect AJ, Talia, and Kelsey to be starters going forward. Whether or not second unit players get more minutes will change game to game (Timea). Even when she wasn't statistically better than players coming off the bench Noelle continued to start last season.
4) Second Scoring Option: This will change game to game. Going into the season I guessed it would be Timea but she hasn't quite learned to command the space she occupies on defense so she isn't on as many minutes as she may get should she improve on the defensive end. I can see the second option being Timea, Kelsey, AJ, Dono, or Talia any given night which allows us a lot of different looks we can give and that's a good thing.
5) Shooting: We haven't played outside of Gill yet but we're currently shooting the 3 at 36% (31%) last year. Anything north of 34% is enough to stretch the defense. With Raegan anchoring us in the paint this could continue or even improve.
6) Post Play: Raegan is obviously one of the best in the nation but we fall off quickly after that. Timea and Kelsey don't seam comfortable playing down low and we haven't seen them guard a true big much. They are fantastic facing up but if Beers is in foul trouble they will need to step up. Heide can come in for a few minutes as needed to give some rim protection and buy some time for Beers but she won't be in there to score much.
7) PG Play: Hunter and Shuler have been better than any of us could have hoped. Dono will need to figure out how to go left before conference play and that's really my only worry with her game. Great facilitator for the talent we have on the floor. Kennedie does a great job of bringing in some energy when she gets put on the floor. A little chaotic at points as she tries to prove herself which has caused a lot of broken plays but we've been able cover it so far. Can she lead a second unit in conference play with minimal turnovers?
8) Deep Bench Players: Martha and Adlee are playing behind 6 guards who are all either better defenders, longer, or both. Sophomore slumps are extremely common, we saw it with AJ last year for about 10 games when Bendu entered the lineup, but she figured it out. The difference this year is not only do they need to get better but they need to displace at least 1 of 6 guards to get into the rotation. All things being equal any coach is going to go with the longer player so displacing AJ, Lily, or Dom is a tall order (pun intended). Sela didn't play much on a terrible Cal team and she's a specialist with a small niche. She understands this and will be ready when called.
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Post by rmancarl on Dec 3, 2023 11:28:11 GMT -8
Good discussion in this thread about the current Beavs. I'll be the first to tell you that the early season has full of numerous surprises, and I don't have a good read on the team overall. SR has repeatedly said this team is ahead of schedule, but I think he says something similar each season. He also has commented that he believes this team in a tournament team.
I see a lot of 'parts' that I'm not sure are all working together yet, but as I watched this game, I believe I am seeing much better passing than earlier games. Raegan seemed to be really concentrating on kicking the ball out, which will become much more important as she faces better inside players, and more double and triple teaming. We'll need the wings/guards to hit their 3's and although they haven't been bad, I think it's an area that needs to be more consistent.
For this team to really challenge in the Pac, I think we'll need to see the return of the scoring Talia. The passing/assist Talia is great and makes her even more of a threat, but if she can't drive to the hoop and score, other teams will always be looking for that pass. In yesterday's game, I think there were 9 free throw attempts by the Beavs, all from Beers and Rees. Not a single FT attempt by a guard, which is normally going to tell you that the guards art not getting to the hoop. Hopefully, that aspect of the game will come around, and Talia is probably the best hope in that area.
There is a lot to work with on this team, and I love their attitude. However it goes, it should be a fun season watching them play. Go Beavs!
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Post by rmancarl on Dec 3, 2023 18:57:55 GMT -8
First game I attended this year. Good win. I've always been a big AJ fan, and if she can hit 3s like that this year, she can score 20+ every game. She made a couple from 10 feet, which is a big reason I like her, but also had a few of those rim out. I was impressed with Donovyn at PG. Doesn't make mistakes, brings the ball up without drama, so unlike last year. Her shot form looks good. Talia is a great passer, then throws some sloppy ones. Seems afraid to shoot. She passed up some 5 footers to throw it out for an open 3. To get out of her slump, she should take and make some of those easy ones. Not a great game, in my eye, for Raegan. She got 5 offensive boards off her own misses. They way overplay her to go right, and she never once went left, so the scouting report was correct. Maybe I am demanding perfection in the 1st week of December. We did win easily. I've seen Raegan go left many times, so you sparked my curiosity about this game. I don't remember Ragen passing the ball out a lot previous to this game, and it seemed she did that a lot in this game, so I just rewatched the first half. Here's what happened each time Raegan received the ball down low in the first half. The majority of the time, the ball came in from the right side. 1st touch, Raegan went left---missed the shot---got her own rebound, shot from right (2nd touch), missed 3rd touch, Ragan went left, missed, got her own rebound (4th touch) and passed out to Talia 5th touch---went right, 2 defenders were on the left, shot was good. 6th---Passed out to Talia 7th--Passed out to Talia, who shot and missed, Raegan got the rebound (8th touch) and passed out to Kennedie. 9th--Passed out to Talia 10h--Went right (received ball on right) was fouled made both FT's 11th--Went right, faked back left, went right for the bucket 12th--went right, missed, got own rebound, went back up from right (13th), missed, got rebound, went left (14th) and scored. 15th--received ball near top of key, passed to AJ for a made 3 16th--Passed out to Lily for a made 3. If I didn't miss, my count for the first half has Raegan going left 3 times (plus one fake left), going right 6 times, and passing the ball 7 times, for two assist. In fairness, most of her received passes came from the right side where it was easiest to stay right and use the backboard. |
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Dec 3, 2023 19:32:30 GMT -8
It's been my impression that Raegan is solid going left and using her left hand to finish. This game the toppers were dropping off others to double and triple team her. The extra defenders came from the off (left) side forcing her to stay on the right. Her best choice of action was to kick the ball back out.
Granted this was not her best game, missed several close shots, but she stayed in it.
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Post by bdudbeaver on Dec 3, 2023 19:44:46 GMT -8
Well, I won't argue with that. My view was from row 9 in the upper section while sipping an IPA.
I don't count good entry passes which lead you to the left or right for a layin. There were several of those. I mostly look at when your back is to the basket and you are at a stop.
If you are on the right block, here's the secret I learned in the frat parking lot, and honed at Dixon. I just don't know why it is not taught today.
You want to get to the spot right in front of the basket. Usually one dribble and hop can get you there.
The key to the shot is you need to jump hard. Not just a little jump. Collect yourself and jump.
After your one dribble, bring the ball up with your elbows out, like Bill Walton used to do.
Keep bringing the ball up as you turn and square up to the hoop. Extend your arms all the way as high as you can reach.
Just use a two-handed push to get the ball over the front of the rim. With your momentum from the jump, it just takes a flick of your index finger and maybe middle finger on each hand. Think of a volleyball set. Don't shoot as normal with your right or left hand.
Because you are square on, you can be a little long. That's why getting straight in front of the basket is key. Just get it over the front of the rim.
99% of the time your leading right elbow is in the empty space that the defender wants to be in. But you got there first.
And if you really jump, you will be up above, sooner, than your defender can respond.
It was my go-to 1-on-1 move for many years.
I'm a strong right-hander who tried for years to be proficient with the left hand, but never could. But this move seems more natural going to the left than going to the right for me. Going to the right I always spun a little bit out of control.
My old guy mansplaining for the year.
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Post by rmancarl on Dec 3, 2023 20:54:09 GMT -8
Your view was close to correct. Raegan only went left once in the 2nd half. She really didn't get the ball in the center too often. The majority of the time, she was already on the right side when she received the pass.
You can tell the Beavs have worked hard in the early going getting the ball inside to Raegan. It will be interesting keeping an eye on this.
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Post by greybeav on Dec 3, 2023 21:29:16 GMT -8
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Post by jones on Dec 4, 2023 14:01:01 GMT -8
First game I attended this year. Good win. I've always been a big AJ fan, and if she can hit 3s like that this year, she can score 20+ every game. She made a couple from 10 feet, which is a big reason I like her, but also had a few of those rim out. I was impressed with Donovyn at PG. Doesn't make mistakes, brings the ball up without drama, so unlike last year. Her shot form looks good. Talia is a great passer, then throws some sloppy ones. Seems afraid to shoot. She passed up some 5 footers to throw it out for an open 3. To get out of her slump, she should take and make some of those easy ones. Not a great game, in my eye, for Raegan. She got 5 offensive boards off her own misses. They way overplay her to go right, and she never once went left, so the scouting report was correct. Maybe I am demanding perfection in the 1st week of December. We did win easily. |
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Post by grayman on Dec 5, 2023 11:37:09 GMT -8
6-0 Thoughts 1) Rotation: The 8+ player rotation appears to be coming into focus - Raegan, Kelsey, AJ, Talia, Dono, Timea, Lily, Kennedie, *Dom. First out of the rotation is Dom as 3 & D from our wings is what we need (see AJ) and she isn't great at either. She's a project but a worthy investment in our future. 2) Much Improved: This team is a better team than last year. Full stop. Players who haven't gotten better since last year will have reduced usage until they can rise to meet the reality. We're seeing this with Talia and Adlee mostly. Talia seems to be doing fine with the change and facilitating well rather than being a shoot first player. Adlee has to get better at defending in space. Almost every time she's on the floor, so far, she looks great on offense then gets cooked on defense. As conference play starts everything could change. 3) Experience: Rueck, as always, will rely on experience. I expect AJ, Talia, and Kelsey to be starters going forward. Whether or not second unit players get more minutes will change game to game (Timea). Even when she wasn't statistically better than players coming off the bench Noelle continued to start last season. 4) Second Scoring Option: This will change game to game. Going into the season I guessed it would be Timea but she hasn't quite learned to command the space she occupies on defense so she isn't on as many minutes as she may get should she improve on the defensive end. I can see the second option being Timea, Kelsey, AJ, Dono, or Talia any given night which allows us a lot of different looks we can give and that's a good thing. 5) Shooting: We haven't played outside of Gill yet but we're currently shooting the 3 at 36% (31%) last year. Anything north of 34% is enough to stretch the defense. With Raegan anchoring us in the paint this could continue or even improve. 6) Post Play: Raegan is obviously one of the best in the nation but we fall off quickly after that. Timea and Kelsey don't seam comfortable playing down low and we haven't seen them guard a true big much. They are fantastic facing up but if Beers is in foul trouble they will need to step up. Heide can come in for a few minutes as needed to give some rim protection and buy some time for Beers but she won't be in there to score much. 7) PG Play: Hunter and Shuler have been better than any of us could have hoped. Dono will need to figure out how to go left before conference play and that's really my only worry with her game. Great facilitator for the talent we have on the floor. Kennedie does a great job of bringing in some energy when she gets put on the floor. A little chaotic at points as she tries to prove herself which has caused a lot of broken plays but we've been able cover it so far. Can she lead a second unit in conference play with minimal turnovers? 8) Deep Bench Players: Martha and Adlee are playing behind 6 guards who are all either better defenders, longer, or both. Sophomore slumps are extremely common, we saw it with AJ last year for about 10 games when Bendu entered the lineup, but she figured it out. The difference this year is not only do they need to get better but they need to displace at least 1 of 6 guards to get into the rotation. All things being equal any coach is going to go with the longer player so displacing AJ, Lily, or Dom is a tall order (pun intended). Sela didn't play much on a terrible Cal team and she's a specialist with a small niche. She understands this and will be ready when called. Really well done analysis of the team as it stands right now. Agree on almost all of it. My biggest question would be about the second scoring option. I agree that what the Beavers have is a bunch of players who can fill this role in any given game. I would disagree that it's a positive. IMO, the team would be much better off if someone steps into the role on a consistent basis. They have to have a go-to aside from Beers. This will no doubt be an issue in some games this season. After that, yes, having several players who can step in is a good thing. Also, I know it's early but I'm starting to wonder about Adlee's future at OSU. I know she's had her struggles on defense at times and there's a bunch of players fighting for playing time this year, but we saw what she was capable of on offense late last season. Just seems like maybe Rueck is undervaluing her offensive potential and overemphasizing her defensive definciencies. Too bad if that's the case. |
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Post by 411500 on Dec 5, 2023 14:46:13 GMT -8
Hey, a really good thread with lots of thoughtful and informed analysis....
Just want to add that I'm also puzzled about Adlee's future with the Beavs...
In my view she is the most explosive 3-point shooter on the team, and probably the only one who could put together a 4 or 5 game string of multiple 3s - -IF she got floor time....
I don't know how bad her D is - especially by Rueck's expectations....But Grayman may have nailed it when he said Rueck is undervaluing her offensive potential....
Come January, when we're in those games when no one can produce points, (I'm afraid there will be many of them!!) having a confident and in-sync Adlee would be a BIG bonus....
Rueck has a math problem when it comes to Adlee....She has the potential to add points faster than anyone except Reagan, but she subtracts points because of her defense.
Personally, I don't understand Rueck's defense well enough to make an educated call on this one. But when I was making the call, I always favored the shooters....3s are game changers; 3s are morale boosters; 3s enhance the defense of the rest of the team... 3s are often worth more than 3 points in the same way that backdoor cuts are worth more than 2. If you catch my drift....
At any rate, I want to thank hoop heretic, grayman, and rmancarl for their quality posts on this thread...🏀
GO BEAVS!!
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Post by rgeorge on Dec 5, 2023 15:12:22 GMT -8
I'm not sure where the AB concern/questions are coming from?
She basically played most of her important minutes after the season wasn't and Talia was out. She shot all of 71 threes, 44 (and 24 of her 33 makes) in the last 10 games. Yes she got hot, "leads" the Pac12 in %. But, in very limited shot attempts.
She hustles, but isn't the best wing defender, poor rebounder, and in those limited minutes more TO than assists.
She had a great run, but really wasn't a factor with a full roster. Hence, this year her PT is limited.
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Post by lotrader on Dec 5, 2023 15:47:38 GMT -8
Rueck does have a math problem with splitting minutes among the guards. AJ, TvO & Donovyn will garner the most minutes of the guard group when we get into PAC-12 play. The rest of the guard minutes will be game/opponent dependent. I know Lily will definitely get minutes because Lily's height on the defensive perimeter + Lily rarely makes mistakes + Lily's 3 ball = Playing time. Kennedie is getting minutes relieving Donovyn. After that it will truly be game/opponent dependent in splitting minutes between Dom, Martha, and Adlee.
I also believe it is pre season and Rueck is going to give more minutes to Martha and Adlee in Saturday's game. I think Rueck has a plan for pre season and all players are going to see the floor.
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Post by rmancarl on Dec 5, 2023 16:45:19 GMT -8
6-0 Thoughts 1) Rotation: The 8+ player rotation appears to be coming into focus - Raegan, Kelsey, AJ, Talia, Dono, Timea, Lily, Kennedie, *Dom. First out of the rotation is Dom as 3 & D from our wings is what we need (see AJ) and she isn't great at either. She's a project but a worthy investment in our future. 2) Much Improved: This team is a better team than last year. Full stop. Players who haven't gotten better since last year will have reduced usage until they can rise to meet the reality. We're seeing this with Talia and Adlee mostly. Talia seems to be doing fine with the change and facilitating well rather than being a shoot first player. Adlee has to get better at defending in space. Almost every time she's on the floor, so far, she looks great on offense then gets cooked on defense. As conference play starts everything could change. 3) Experience: Rueck, as always, will rely on experience. I expect AJ, Talia, and Kelsey to be starters going forward. Whether or not second unit players get more minutes will change game to game (Timea). Even when she wasn't statistically better than players coming off the bench Noelle continued to start last season. 4) Second Scoring Option: This will change game to game. Going into the season I guessed it would be Timea but she hasn't quite learned to command the space she occupies on defense so she isn't on as many minutes as she may get should she improve on the defensive end. I can see the second option being Timea, Kelsey, AJ, Dono, or Talia any given night which allows us a lot of different looks we can give and that's a good thing. 5) Shooting: We haven't played outside of Gill yet but we're currently shooting the 3 at 36% (31%) last year. Anything north of 34% is enough to stretch the defense. With Raegan anchoring us in the paint this could continue or even improve. 6) Post Play: Raegan is obviously one of the best in the nation but we fall off quickly after that. Timea and Kelsey don't seam comfortable playing down low and we haven't seen them guard a true big much. They are fantastic facing up but if Beers is in foul trouble they will need to step up. Heide can come in for a few minutes as needed to give some rim protection and buy some time for Beers but she won't be in there to score much. 7) PG Play: Hunter and Shuler have been better than any of us could have hoped. Dono will need to figure out how to go left before conference play and that's really my only worry with her game. Great facilitator for the talent we have on the floor. Kennedie does a great job of bringing in some energy when she gets put on the floor. A little chaotic at points as she tries to prove herself which has caused a lot of broken plays but we've been able cover it so far. Can she lead a second unit in conference play with minimal turnovers? 8) Deep Bench Players: Martha and Adlee are playing behind 6 guards who are all either better defenders, longer, or both. Sophomore slumps are extremely common, we saw it with AJ last year for about 10 games when Bendu entered the lineup, but she figured it out. The difference this year is not only do they need to get better but they need to displace at least 1 of 6 guards to get into the rotation. All things being equal any coach is going to go with the longer player so displacing AJ, Lily, or Dom is a tall order (pun intended). Sela didn't play much on a terrible Cal team and she's a specialist with a small niche. She understands this and will be ready when called. My thoughts on your thoughts, keeping in mind that your thoughts are very good, and mine won't be as good. #1---You may be right about the top 8, but I'm not sure it is written in stone yet. I'll be curious to see who plays the next couple games. #2---I think you are correct that this team is better than last year. It's tough to be sure until they play some real competition. #3---Yep you are probably correct. #4--I believe the Beavs do need a more consistent second scoring option. I'm not sure there is anyone capable yet other than Talia, who still appears to be in a shooting slump. #5--This is where it gets kind of interesting and even confusing. AJ, who I would normally consider a slightly below average 3pt shooter is shooting 45.5%, Lily is shooting 3's at 45%. Timea is shooing 3's at 42.9% and Rees is shooting 3's at a 50% clip. In particular AJ and Timea are not the two players you would expect to be hitting that high of a percentage of 3's. If you took out the 3pt shooting of Talia, the team would be at 39.1% That would be perfect for the inside/out game. If you took out Talia and Adlee, normally two players you would expect to shoot at a high percentage, the Beavs would be shooting 41.3%. Maybe I am wrong, but I expect some of those who are hot right now will see their percentage come down, and Talia and Adlee will see their percentage go up. I don't care who hits the 3's but for SR's offense to be what he has always liked, he needs their to be a high percentage of 3's made. #6--My only concern here is if Raegan were to have foul problems or be injured. Most teams, even Pac12 teams, don't have great backup post players. #7--I absolutely love watching Shuler play but I expect her minutes will dwindle as we go against tougher competition. Hunter seems ready to take on all comers and handle the ball well. I still want to see some teams press the Beavs, so we can see how the youth react. #8 One of the problems for the Beavs is that they have many players with close to equal talents. The "second string" should be pretty solid but the question is, can you keep players happy? That is the main reason SR hasn't wanted larger rosters in the past, but you have to do it to guard against injuries which have really hurt the Beavs the last few years. |
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