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Post by grayman on Jan 3, 2023 20:58:32 GMT -8
So Jdogge brought this up in another thread, but I thought it was worth a separate one...
The question was about the effect of the 3-point line distance being moved back to 22-feet, 1 3/4 inches from 20-9, which was changed prior to the 21-22 season.
I did a quick check of OSU's 3-point shooting in recent years. The Beavers were 221-610 (.362) in 16-17; 274-676 (.405) in 17-18; 280-745 (.376) in 18-19; 243-659 (.369) in 19-20 and 156-394 (.396) in 20-21.
Last year, they dropped to .329 (192-583) and currently the Beavers are 83-288 for a .288.
Clearly, the numbers are worse.
I'm not sure SR can continue to emphasize the shot to the degree he has.
I will say that the arrival of Beers as a major inside threat is very timely. Maybe the offense will start to evolve even more in the near future.
Thoughts?
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Post by jdogge on Jan 3, 2023 21:11:23 GMT -8
So Jdogge brought this up in another thread, but I thought it was worth a separate one... The question was about the effect of the 3-point line distance being moved back to 22-feet, 1 3/4 inches from 20-9, which was changed prior to the 21-22 season. I did a quick check of OSU's 3-point shooting in recent years. The Beavers were 221-610 (.362) in 16-17; 274-676 (.405) in 17-18; 280-745 (.376) in 18-19; 243-659 (.369) in 19-20 and 156-394 (.396) in 20-21. Last year, they dropped to .329 (192-583) and currently the Beavers are 83-288 for a .288. Clearly, the numbers are worse. I'm not sure SR can continue to emphasize the shot to the degree he has. I will say that the arrival of Beers as a major inside threat is very timely. Maybe the offense will start to evolve even more in the near future. Thoughts? You find any data on the national level? |
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Post by rmancarl on Jan 3, 2023 21:31:27 GMT -8
Women's (girls) basketball is growing rapidly across the world. Girls are getting a younger start and the game is evolving quickly. Have you seen some of these 8 graders play? No doubt moving the 3pt line is having a short term effect on 3pt shooting percentages, but I think we are already seeing a trend of players (like Timea as an example), who seem to shoot from way beyond the 3pt line, and do it well.
As for the Beavs, there are many reasons that led to the victory over UCLA, but I think the game was won when Shalexxus hit her 3's. The Beavs are obviously developing a dominate inside game with Raegan and Jelena. Hopefully Timea can add to this. Now, the Beavs need to get their 3pt shooting game back. If a couple or three players can start hitting 3's, the Beavs will have a solid inside/outside game, and be tough to beat. You can watch the USC game and say the Beavs, who shot 2-13 from three are a bad team, but how much stronger would the inside game have looked if the outside game had hit 5 or 6 of those attempts?
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Post by grayman on Jan 3, 2023 21:42:30 GMT -8
So Jdogge brought this up in another thread, but I thought it was worth a separate one... The question was about the effect of the 3-point line distance being moved back to 22-feet, 1 3/4 inches from 20-9, which was changed prior to the 21-22 season. I did a quick check of OSU's 3-point shooting in recent years. The Beavers were 221-610 (.362) in 16-17; 274-676 (.405) in 17-18; 280-745 (.376) in 18-19; 243-659 (.369) in 19-20 and 156-394 (.396) in 20-21. Last year, they dropped to .329 (192-583) and currently the Beavers are 83-288 for a .288. Clearly, the numbers are worse. I'm not sure SR can continue to emphasize the shot to the degree he has. I will say that the arrival of Beers as a major inside threat is very timely. Maybe the offense will start to evolve even more in the near future. Thoughts? You find any data on the national level? I didn't spend a lot of time looking, but one article stated that it dropped just under 31 percent nationally last season for the first time since they moved the line from 19-9 to 20-9 about 10 years or so ago. They did find that the recent move did not have as drastic effect on the players who shot a lot of 3s as it did on those who just took occasional 3s. And I wouldn't be too concerned about TVO's range. |
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Post by grayman on Jan 3, 2023 21:46:43 GMT -8
Women's (girls) basketball is growing rapidly across the world. Girls are getting a younger start and the game is evolving quickly. Have you seen some of these 8 graders play? No doubt moving the 3pt line is having a short term effect on 3pt shooting percentages, but I think we are already seeing a trend of players (like Timea as an example), who seem to shoot from way beyond the 3pt line, and do it well. As for the Beavs, there are many reasons that led to the victory over UCLA, but I think the game was won when Shalexxus hit her 3's. The Beavs are obviously developing a dominate inside game with Raegan and Jelena. Hopefully Timea can add to this. Now, the Beavs need to get their 3pt shooting game back. If a couple or three players can start hitting 3's, the Beavs will have a solid inside/outside game, and be tough to beat. You can watch the USC game and say the Beavs, who shot 2-13 from three are a bad team, but how much stronger would the inside game have looked if the outside game had hit 5 or 6 of those attempts? Yeah, I'm not saying anyone should stop taking the 3, just that it's probably a lower percentage play on the whole than it has been. However, it does look like the numbers bounced back some after a low when right after it was moved from 19-9 to 20-9, so maybe there will be an adjustment once again. As I mentioned to jdogge, the effect on those who shoot the 3 a lot isn't as drastic and players like TVO obviously don't have problem with the range. But it's definitely tougher on others. |
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Post by bvrbooster on Jan 3, 2023 21:55:45 GMT -8
For what it's worth, here are the YTD 3 point percentages for all the Pac 12 members (plus USC and UCLA).
Az 36.5
Az St 28.7
Cal 34.2
Colo 37.3
Or 38.7
OSU 28.8
Stan 35.8
UCLA 28.9
USC 33.9
Utah 34.6
Wash 22.9
Wa St 33,0
I don't know the national numbers, but it would seem most conference schools are doing pretty well. Since a 3 point shot is (obviously) worth 50% more points than a 2 point shot, one could say that shooting 33.3% on threes is equivalent to shooting 50% on twos. For 8 of the 12 teams in conference, then, the 3 point shot remains very valid, even if percentages might be down overall.
For the Beavs, however, the percentage is down about 10 points from a few years ago, and our percentage is 10th in the league. I don't think it's moving the line: it's the people standing behind the line. If Aaron, or anybody else, can start to hit them regularly, we can win games. If that doesn't happen, we won't. It's about that simple.
One other point. We write frequently about needing to pick up this or that in the transfer portal (a point guard, for example). What we desperately need to get is a Kat, Aleah, or Syd who can provide that 3 point scoring threat.
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Post by grayman on Jan 3, 2023 22:30:02 GMT -8
For what it's worth, here are the YTD 3 point percentages for all the Pac 12 members (plus USC and UCLA). Az 36.5 Az St 28.7 Cal 34.2 Colo 37.3 Or 38.7 OSU 28.8 Stan 35.8 UCLA 28.9 USC 33.9 Utah 34.6 Wash 22.9 Wa St 33,0 I don't know the national numbers, but it would seem most conference schools are doing pretty well. Since a 3 point shot is (obviously) worth 50% more points than a 2 point shot, one could say that shooting 33.3% on threes is equivalent to shooting 50% on twos. For 8 of the 12 teams in conference, then, the 3 point shot remains very valid, even if percentages might be down overall. For the Beavs, however, the percentage is down about 10 points from a few years ago, and our percentage is 10th in the league. I don't think it's moving the line: it's the people standing behind the line. If Aaron, or anybody else, can start to hit them regularly, we can win games. If that doesn't happen, we won't. It's about that simple. One other point. We write frequently about needing to pick up this or that in the transfer portal (a point guard, for example). What we desperately need to get is a Kat, Aleah, or Syd who can provide that 3 point scoring threat. Yeah, some teams (Oregon, Stanford, Utah) are doing really well as far as using it as a major weapon. But the amount of 3s each team takes is also a variable. Colorado has taken 252 (35 fewer than OSU, FWIW) and Arizona only has 219 attempts. Plus, these are stats taken from an incomplete season with the bulk of Pac-12 games to be played. Defenses factor in as well. It's much easier to shoot an open 22-footer than under duress. Statistically it was shown that moving the line caused a drop in 3-point shooting percentage last season. But is the difference drastic enough to cause concern? Maybe not. And you're right, it does depend on who is standing behind the line. |
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Post by beaveragain on Jan 3, 2023 23:35:15 GMT -8
They tested it out with women shooting at both ranges and there was a .o4? difference. Statistically noticeable but nothing like the difference we've had. Noelle's averages over the years started at 63%, then 33%, 43%, and now 17%.
In looking at the top 3 pt shooting teams in the country they all have someone who's in the top 30 in shooting the 3. I wonder if there is a bit of a cascade effect. If your top shooter is nailing it then mentally it's easier for the rest of the team. And conversely it's harder for the rest of the team when your top shooter isn't.
I'm pretty sure that Hansford and Blacklock were brought in for their 3 pt shooting. But when Talia can't hit 3's its a heavier burden on them to make their shots, and they still are the 1st and 4th most accurate on the team.
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Post by beaverwbb fan on Jan 4, 2023 5:52:28 GMT -8
Obviously Bendu isn’t someone you’d expect to see shoot 30-40%+ from three and I’m not sure AJ is either (her shot from three doesn’t seem very good to me).
Talia shot it really, really well when she arrived but that was also with Aleah doing the majority of the ballhandling and the focal point of the offense. Not sure if there’s any correlation there but I’d assume the quality of her shots are more difficult with her being the focal point of the offense.
Mannen’s minutes were previously mostly mop up time, but I definitely expected her to shoot it better from three.
Nice to see Shalexxus shooting it well and playing with confidence recently. She shot over 40% two years at USC so she’s obviously capable.
AJ and Lily came in as highly regarded shooters but neither has been lights out. Martha has shown the ability to knock down the three ball as well.
Hopefully as defenses continue to sag off the three point line to help on Raegan we’ll get better looks and knock more of them down.
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Post by rmancarl on Jan 4, 2023 9:35:14 GMT -8
For what it's worth, here are the YTD 3 point percentages for all the Pac 12 members (plus USC and UCLA). Az 36.5 Az St 28.7 Cal 34.2 Colo 37.3 Or 38.7 OSU 28.8 Stan 35.8 UCLA 28.9 USC 33.9 Utah 34.6 Wash 22.9 Wa St 33,0 I don't know the national numbers, but it would seem most conference schools are doing pretty well. Since a 3 point shot is (obviously) worth 50% more points than a 2 point shot, one could say that shooting 33.3% on threes is equivalent to shooting 50% on twos. For 8 of the 12 teams in conference, then, the 3 point shot remains very valid, even if percentages might be down overall. For the Beavs, however, the percentage is down about 10 points from a few years ago, and our percentage is 10th in the league. I don't think it's moving the line: it's the people standing behind the line. If Aaron, or anybody else, can start to hit them regularly, we can win games. If that doesn't happen, we won't. It's about that simple. One other point. We write frequently about needing to pick up this or that in the transfer portal (a point guard, for example). What we desperately need to get is a Kat, Aleah, or Syd who can provide that 3 point scoring threat. Your line "If Aaron, or anybody else, can start to hit them regularly, we can win games. It's that simple" is true. Well, the game isn't actually simple, there is a lot that needs to be done, but for this team, right now, if someone were hitting the 3's, we would look at this team completely differently. Throw a Kat, or Aleah, or Syd, etc into the lineup and it's a game changer. Timea can hit the 3, but I don't think she is 'that' person. Our best hope for this season would be for Talia to get her shot back, Aaron to continue to improve her 3pt percentage, and one of the freshman to step up and start hitting shots. We may be waiting until next year for that to happen, (hope not) but I think you will see better 3pt shooting by next season. |
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Post by grayman on Jan 4, 2023 11:03:38 GMT -8
Obviously Bendu isn’t someone you’d expect to see shoot 30-40%+ from three and I’m not sure AJ is either (her shot from three doesn’t seem very good to me). Talia shot it really, really well when she arrived but that was also with Aleah doing the majority of the ballhandling and the focal point of the offense. Not sure if there’s any correlation there but I’d assume the quality of her shots are more difficult with her being the focal point of the offense.Mannen’s minutes were previously mostly mop up time, but I definitely expected her to shoot it better from three. Nice to see Shalexxus shooting it well and playing with confidence recently. She shot over 40% two years at USC so she’s obviously capable. AJ and Lily came in as highly regarded shooters but neither has been lights out. Martha has shown the ability to knock down the three ball as well. Hopefully as defenses continue to sag off the three point line to help on Raegan we’ll get better looks and knock more of them down. Yes...I think the lack of strong point guard play last season and trying to figure it out this season definitely has made it more difficult for TVO to get a clean shot consistently. And it's tougher for her to create room with the ball in her hands. That's part of the reason why I have been posting that her role on offense should be adjusted a bit to more of a spot-up shooter, especially now that Beers really seems to be taking over as the focal point on offense (and should be). Whether or not the deeper 3 line has a major effect overall, I don't think a player like TVO has any problem with the range. |
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Post by grayman on Jan 4, 2023 11:13:07 GMT -8
They tested it out with women shooting at both ranges and there was a .o4? difference. Statistically noticeable but nothing like the difference we've had. Noelle's averages over the years started at 63%, then 33%, 43%, and now 17%. In looking at the top 3 pt shooting teams in the country they all have someone who's in the top 30 in shooting the 3. I wonder if there is a bit of a cascade effect. If your top shooter is nailing it then mentally it's easier for the rest of the team. And conversely it's harder for the rest of the team when your top shooter isn't. I'm pretty sure that Hansford and Blacklock were brought in for their 3 pt shooting. But when Talia can't hit 3's its a heavier burden on them to make their shots, and they still are the 1st and 4th most accurate on the team. No, it dropped about .5 percent in one season and over a full percentage point compared to 2017-18. It might not matter all that much moving forward, but we don't know that for sure. I'm sure quite a few of the top 3-point shooters are adjusting pretty well. As for OSU's struggles, I think it's a combination of moving back the shot and, probably more so, the lack of consistent point guard play. |
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Post by grayman on Jan 4, 2023 11:19:56 GMT -8
Obviously Bendu isn’t someone you’d expect to see shoot 30-40%+ from three and I’m not sure AJ is either (her shot from three doesn’t seem very good to me). Talia shot it really, really well when she arrived but that was also with Aleah doing the majority of the ballhandling and the focal point of the offense. Not sure if there’s any correlation there but I’d assume the quality of her shots are more difficult with her being the focal point of the offense.Mannen’s minutes were previously mostly mop up time, but I definitely expected her to shoot it better from three. Nice to see Shalexxus shooting it well and playing with confidence recently. She shot over 40% two years at USC so she’s obviously capable. AJ and Lily came in as highly regarded shooters but neither has been lights out. Martha has shown the ability to knock down the three ball as well. Hopefully as defenses continue to sag off the three point line to help on Raegan we’ll get better looks and knock more of them down. Yes...I think the lack of strong point guard play last season and trying to figure it out this season definitely has made it more difficult for TVO to get a clean shot consistently. And it's tougher for her to create room with the ball in her hands. That's part of the reason why I have been posting that her role on offense should be adjusted a bit to more of a spot-up shooter, especially now that Beers really seems to be taking over as the focal point on offense (and should be) and Yeaney is now showing that she can make things happen with the ball in her hands. Whether or not the deeper 3 line has a major effect overall, I don't think a player like TVO has any problem with the range. |
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Post by grayman on Jan 4, 2023 11:22:03 GMT -8
Sorry, was intending to just edit the above post and somehow ended up re-posting.
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Post by ag87 on Jan 4, 2023 12:19:10 GMT -8
Question - Is the men's and women's three-point line the same now? On some courts I see two lines. But is the inner line something old that has just not been removed yet? I can recognize the NBA line and I'm not talking about that. Also, if the line is further away from the hoop it makes the shot longer but it also, in theory, gives you a better look because the defender has more distance to cover to challenge the shot.
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