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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 1, 2022 12:43:15 GMT -8
The phoenix metro is over 4.5 million, not sure where 2 million comes from. The whole state of oregon is 4.2 million. Phoenix proper is 1.6 million, I rounded up. AZ is less than double Oregons population, it’s not that big of a market and it’s split multiple ways. Also comparing any market to Oregon to show it as big is silly. Arizona schools are big enough to get scalped by the BIG12 but that might be the only interested party. Washington has about the same population but UWs share of the pie is way bigger than either Zona school. I live in Phoenix proper. The 2022 population is 1,759,940. It had more than 1.6 million more than two years ago, so where are your numbers coming from? It's a huge market, 11th-largest in the country. If you add the Phoenix and Tucson TV markets together, it would be the 8th-largest TV market in the United States, approximately 4% of the national TV market, and that number does not include Northeastern and Southwestern Arizona, which are in different markets. You make a lot of bold assertions, but do you have any data that we can review? Or are you just throwing stuff up against a wall and seeing what sticks?
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Jul 1, 2022 12:43:42 GMT -8
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Jul 1, 2022 12:43:42 GMT -8
TV markets are the past. You guys need to realize it’s about total active fan base. Who is going to subscribe to fubo sports package or espn plus to watch their team. Casual sports fans barely exist anymore. Well, if casual sports fans barely exist then that probably spells the end of my interest in Oregon State University athletics. It's been a lot of fun, but I guess nothing lasts forever. If I have to be an obsessive fan, count me out. that’s why I kinda prefer to get out of the rat race. It would idk be more fun to be a casual fan of a team that does well even if it’s in a lower league.
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Post by nuclearbeaver on Jul 1, 2022 12:48:53 GMT -8
Phoenix proper is 1.6 million, I rounded up. AZ is less than double Oregons population, it’s not that big of a market and it’s split multiple ways. Also comparing any market to Oregon to show it as big is silly. Arizona schools are big enough to get scalped by the BIG12 but that might be the only interested party. Washington has about the same population but UWs share of the pie is way bigger than either Zona school. I live in Phoenix proper. The 2022 population is 1,759,940. It had more than 1.6 million more than two years ago, so where are your numbers coming from? It's a huge market, 11th-largest in the country. If you add the Phoenix and Tucson TV markets together, it would be the 8th-largest TV market in the United States, approximately 4% of the national TV market, and that number does not include Northeastern and Southwestern Arizona, which are in different markets. You make a lot of bold assertions, but do you have any data that we can review? Or are you just throwing stuff up against a wall and seeing what sticks? I googled Phoenix population. It’s probably fron an older year. If the market is so great for Zona and Sparky why aren’t they being clamored over? You are missing the point Wilky. It doesn’t matter how big the market is if the schools grasp of the market is fractional. If everyone in Phoenix cares about ASU they would be one of the biggest fan bases in the country. That’s not the reality. The size of the city does not matter. The amount of people willing to pay to watch is what matters. If the market for those teams was so great they would be getting offers from all the major conferences but the fact is most SEC teams have more fans than ASU.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 1, 2022 12:51:15 GMT -8
The Bay Area is the United States' sixth-largest television market. Phoenix is the 11th-largest television market in the country, a larger television market than Seattle. There are 4,652,000 in Phoenix Metro alone, bigger than the entire State of Oregon. Denver is the 16th-largest television market. Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto is the 20th-largest television market. Portland is 21st. San Diego is 27th. Salt lake City is 30th. Las Vegas is 40th. The SEC added Missouri to get the St. Louis market, and it is only 23rd. There are six markets larger than that in the Pac-12's footprint alone. I keep going back on forth on this, but I would work to move to add at least four teams out of the Big 12 to get to 14 and move forward. TV markets are the past. You guys need to realize it’s about total active fan base. Who is going to subscribe to fubo sports package or espn plus to watch their team. Casual sports fans barely exist anymore. Then, where is your data and numbers? If it was about total active fan base, the Big Ten would have added Oregon, Washington, and Arizona State before adding UCLA and USC, because the Ducks, Huskies, and Devils each have a much larger active fan base than either the Bruins and Trojans. But they added the largest TV market. I guess that the Big Ten just screwed the pooch in not inviting Oregon, Washington, and Arizona State, right? It may be moving toward what you are describing, but it is not there yet. This is a TV market deal to negotiate with TV providers in Disney and Fox.
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BeaverG20
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Post by BeaverG20 on Jul 1, 2022 13:00:17 GMT -8
The pac 12 cannot survive by trying to keep what it has.
It must expand. Bring in or try to poach Boise St, San Diego St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Kansas and anything else it can get it's hands on and create a 16 or 18 team conference.
It may not have the same level of success in football that the SEC and the big 10 will have. But the rest of the sports would be extremely competitive and the TV markets would be able to pay the schools pretty well.
The PAC rying to keep 10 teams, or only going back to 12 is just paying to lose. Either expand and own the western half of the country, or it will fold.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 1, 2022 13:07:12 GMT -8
I live in Phoenix proper. The 2022 population is 1,759,940. It had more than 1.6 million more than two years ago, so where are your numbers coming from? It's a huge market, 11th-largest in the country. If you add the Phoenix and Tucson TV markets together, it would be the 8th-largest TV market in the United States, approximately 4% of the national TV market, and that number does not include Northeastern and Southwestern Arizona, which are in different markets. You make a lot of bold assertions, but do you have any data that we can review? Or are you just throwing stuff up against a wall and seeing what sticks? I googled Phoenix population. It’s probably fron an older year. If the market is so great for Zona and Sparky why aren’t they being clamored over? You are missing the point Wilky. It doesn’t matter how big the market is if the schools grasp of the market is fractional. If everyone in Phoenix cares about ASU they would be one of the biggest fan bases in the country. That’s not the reality. The size of the city does not matter. The amount of people willing to pay to watch is what matters. If the market for those teams was so great they would be getting offers from all the major conferences but the fact is most SEC teams have more fans than ASU. Arizona State has the 24th-largest fan base in the country (23rd in FBS - Gonzaga). Oregon is ninth, and Washington is 19th. USC is 29th, and UCLA is 32nd. Oregon State is 84th (78th in FBS), only ahead of California with its meager fan base and Colorado in the Pac-12. Seven SEC teams have larger fanbases than Arizona State: Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama Kentucky (I am guessing that most of this is basketball), LSU, and Tennessee. Texas would be ahead of Arizona State, and Oklahoma would be behind. Arizona State would be a middle-of-the-road team in the SEC by fanbase size. The issue is product, marketing, and perception. Arizona State is currently a dumpster fire in football, basketball, and baseball. The sports media here always asserts that Arizona State fans deserve better than what they are getting. They're probably right.
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Jul 1, 2022 13:28:51 GMT -8
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Post by sparty on Jul 1, 2022 13:28:51 GMT -8
Notre Dame and Oregon to the Big 10??? I say yah right . Lol!
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Jul 1, 2022 13:52:52 GMT -8
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Post by william44 on Jul 1, 2022 13:52:52 GMT -8
Sadly the Landscape will be such that it could end up like Utah Utah State or worse. UW will become the rival of Oregon. I see no good end for this.,We shall have to wait. I doubt we can be pro active or even reactive. Really caught the New Commissioner of Pac12 off guard. I wonder how long it takes oregon to get into this? Will uw wait? I remember past AD’d at OSU sayjng oregon will not screwcus. Yeah.
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Jul 1, 2022 13:55:16 GMT -8
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Post by Judge Smails on Jul 1, 2022 13:55:16 GMT -8
Sadly the Landscape will be such that it could end up like Utah Utah State or worse. UW will become the rival of Oregon. I see no good end for this.,We shall have to wait. I doubt we can be pro active or even reactive. Really caught the New Commissioner of Pac12 off guard. I wonder how long it takes oregon to get into this? Will uw wait? I remember past AD’d at OSU sayjng oregon will not screwcus. Yeah. mm UW has been the rival of uo for the past 30 years. As the great John McClain once said, “welcome to the party pal”
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Post by joeavocado on Jul 1, 2022 14:26:48 GMT -8
Best case scenario, PAC12 holds together long enough to grab Vegas market with UNLV, and add Gonzaga, who wouldn't want to watch UA and Gonzaga battle every year in bball? Maybe one other school (SDSU, BYU changes their mind on Big12, or grab Ok St, TCU, or some other dissatisfied school). Hold it together for a couple years until their is eventually one national conference for college football, like the NFL. Then the incentives for super conferences subsides, and by then, just maybe USC and UCLA will have realized the stupidity of playing in an Eastern time zone conference and crawl back to the PAC12. But don't expect the UW or uo to act rationally, if they panic, the whole thing could implode quickly with OSU and WSU in the MWC.
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Post by ag87 on Jul 1, 2022 14:59:43 GMT -8
Someone linked a NYTimes article earlier. It was interesting. Basically it said what some are saying here. It's not the size of the TV market but the amount of fans that will search out the game. It compared new York city & Birmingham AL from a college football perspective. I don't remember the numbers exactly but it was something like this. NYC has 11M people. Birmingham has 1.2M. 10% of NYC are college football fans giving them 1.1M fans. 85% of Birmingham are fans . . 930K fans. Birmingham is nearly as big. And in NYC those 1.1M are spread out among UConn, Syracuse, Rutgers, Notre Dame and much of the Big10. In Birmingham they are almost all Alabama or Auburn fans.
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BeaverG20
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Post by BeaverG20 on Jul 1, 2022 15:08:50 GMT -8
The more I think about it, PAC 12 should just merge with the big 12, not poach from it. Pick up San Diego market and Boise market, call it the big pac or whatever you want. 24 teams, a bunch of really good markets and control of half of America. The media deal would be huge. Would it be worth 1.2b? Every school taking home 50m.
Football would be good, basketball would be good. Baseball would be good.
ESPN needs to have west, mountain and central time zone programing. They have the east with the SEC sewn up. This would give them the west and mountain, and a good chunk of the central.
The big 12 was born out of a merger in 1994, and I think the answer in 2024 is the same thing. Unite.
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elwood
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Jul 1, 2022 15:55:50 GMT -8
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Post by elwood on Jul 1, 2022 15:55:50 GMT -8
Notre Dame and Oregon to the Big 10??? I say yah right . Lol! Notre Dame’s Lawyers are trying to see if they can get out of their contract with the ACC. Oregon and Rob Mulllens is the only PAC-12 team that has not released an official response after submitting a request to join the Big10. UDub has released a statement.
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Post by TheGlove on Jul 1, 2022 16:21:05 GMT -8
The more I think about it, PAC 12 should just merge with the big 12, not poach from it. Pick up San Diego market and Boise market, call it the big pac or whatever you want. 24 teams, a bunch of really good markets and control of half of America. The media deal would be huge. Would it be worth 1.2b? Every school taking home 50m. Football would be good, basketball would be good. Baseball would be good. ESPN needs to have west, mountain and central time zone programing. They have the east with the SEC sewn up. This would give them the west and mountain, and a good chunk of the central. The big 12 was born out of a merger in 1994, and I think the answer in 2024 is the same thing. Unite. BeaverG20 for commish!
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Jul 1, 2022 16:55:25 GMT -8
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Post by RenoBeaver on Jul 1, 2022 16:55:25 GMT -8
The TV market thing is way overplayed. It's simply not that big a deal in these modern times. Bama...Oklahoma...Penn State...Oregon...Clemson....Notre Dame.
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