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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 27, 2022 21:35:10 GMT -8
By now everyone knows I love a pitch count =P I actually have one foot in both camps with your pitch count topic. I found it interesting and I think it has some validity because "all of baseball"is into pitch counts. If a coach over works his pitchers, other programs & the media will talk about it. MLB is also interested in pitch counts. I thought some of the guys were a little rough on you, but you seem to have tough skin. It’s a board full of sports dorks, life will go on. I’m excited to see what comes out of the analysis of the tourney. Early results are kinda cool. First is overall pitch count is an absurd judge of any single game result. Literally useless. Pitch count over multiple games seems to have some small statistical significance but nothing to write home about. What really seems to be of significance is the team average of what I’m calling to he effective pitcher ratio (yeh it’s a super dumb name, im not creative). So this is the average of each pitchers effective pitch count (basically the average pitches by an individual over the season inside a 70% average…that isn’t the right words but whatever) divided by the pitch count during a series or tournament by that pitcher. Essentially what it shows is the closer a team is to 1.00 with the effective pitcher ratio the better their result. Logically this is a total no s%#t. If a pitcher has a really short outing they are probably sucking that day, if they have a long outing they are more likely to over extend and go out in flaming glory. It’s just neat that there is maybe some way to put math to the concept. Edit: fixed it on my comp. Idk how any of you read that. |
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Post by beaver1989 on May 27, 2022 21:40:02 GMT -8
Feel free to burn through your pitching. UCLA not burning through a lot of quality guys. Three of them combined only 89 IP all season. No one over 3.1 innings, 58 pitches. But, they're hitting the crap out of the ball. They still haven't thrown Rajcic, who last pitched on Thursday May 19. Maybe they're resting him for the Regionals. He threw a lot of pitches against us and Washington St. |
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Post by messi on May 27, 2022 21:43:14 GMT -8
So entering the final two days, its all chalk.
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Post by beaver1989 on May 27, 2022 21:47:11 GMT -8
Its the Bruins tomorrow folks.
UCLA with a 9-7 win in 10 innings.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 27, 2022 21:55:59 GMT -8
So entering the final two days, its all chalk. #5 Arizona is still alive at the expense of #4 Oregon but otherwise yes. |
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Post by beaver1989 on May 27, 2022 21:59:27 GMT -8
Feel free to burn through your pitching. UCLA not burning through a lot of quality guys. Three of them combined only 89 IP all season. No one over 3.1 innings, 58 pitches. But, they're hitting the crap out of the ball. But, Savage is pretty matter of fact that he's not jeopardizing a regional to press his guys into action. Savage has always been that way. It seems to pay off, look at the recruiting classes he puts together. UCLA is young & very talented, if they get the usual growth from their Freshmen & Sophomores, they're going to be scary good the next couple of years. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 27, 2022 22:01:02 GMT -8
Its the Bruins tomorrow folks. UCLA with a 9-7 win in 10 innings. My inclination is to throw Pfennigs and save Kmatz for the Championship Game (hopefully). |
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Post by beaver1989 on May 27, 2022 22:13:54 GMT -8
Its the Bruins tomorrow folks. UCLA with a 9-7 win in 10 innings. My inclination is to throw Pfennigs and save Kmatz for the Championship Game (hopefully). Your inclination is doable. Pfennigs threw last Saturday so he's on schedule. Kmatz went Friday so he's got an extra day. The key is win the next game. At this point I'm not into double headers. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 27, 2022 22:36:58 GMT -8
My inclination is to throw Pfennigs and save Kmatz for the Championship Game (hopefully). Your inclination is doable. Pfennigs threw last Saturday so he's on schedule. Kmatz went Friday so he's got an extra day. The key is win the next game. At this point I'm not into double headers. I agree. And Pfennigs gives Oregon State the best chance to win against UCLA. Throwing Pfennigs also sets up better at the Regional, I think, with Pfennigs reaching his stride and Kmatz showing some symptoms of the aforementioned Freshman Wall. If Pfennigs s#*ts the bed, you bring in Kmatz in game two to clean things up and worry about Sunday after you beat UCLA. I still think about flipping them, though, depending on how the Arizona-Stanford game turns out. |
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Post by beaverboilermaker on May 27, 2022 22:53:21 GMT -8
Its the Bruins tomorrow folks. UCLA with a 9-7 win in 10 innings. My inclination is to throw Pfennigs and save Kmatz for the Championship Game (hopefully). Interesting thought. Jake threw on Saturday last week, so it would be his full-week rotation. Kmatz has pitched a lot of innings for a freshman - every week for a season much longer than HS. Canham and Dorman have to do "scenario planning." They need a plan to get the pitching staff the right amount of work to prep for regionals, understanding that winning a Regional is a lot more important than winning this "Pac-12-but-with-11-actual-teams-but-still-only-8-teams-double-elimination-except-for-the-most-important-championship-part" Tournament. Scenarios: - Sat. pitcher win, who starts Sun. (works great to start Kmatz and Pfennings in either order, but Stanford has not seen Jake)
- Sat. pitcher loss, who pitches Game 2 Sat, then who pitches Sun. (ucla has seen Kmatz and Silent P, so could use both and they both get full rest for regionals. So Sunday championship game is Johnny Wholestaff.)
- Regionals - #4 seed lots of Rt batters (or #2 or 3 seed heavy Lt batters), who pitches to save Hjerpe for Saturday? (Depends who is available after this weekend. I don't like Silent P or Kmatz on short rest. Is Lattery an option?
I'm starting to think best case is a game-one Sat. win with Kmatz, then Sunday Lattery and bullpen. Silent P to start Regionals Friday, with Coop starting Saturday. At that point, OSU pen including Hunter not pitching since Wed. should be able to get the outs.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 28, 2022 0:11:05 GMT -8
My inclination is to throw Pfennigs and save Kmatz for the Championship Game (hopefully). Interesting thought. Jake threw on Saturday last week, so it would be his full-week rotation. Kmatz has pitched a lot of innings for a freshman - every week for a season much longer than HS. Canham and Dorman have to do "scenario planning." They need a plan to get the pitching staff the right amount of work to prep for regionals, understanding that winning a Regional is a lot more important than winning this "Pac-12-but-with-11-actual-teams-but-still-only-8-teams-double-elimination-except-for-the-most-important-championship-part" Tournament. Scenarios: - Sat. pitcher win, who starts Sun. (works great to start Kmatz and Pfennings in either order, but Stanford has not seen Jake)
- Sat. pitcher loss, who pitches Game 2 Sat, then who pitches Sun. (ucla has seen Kmatz and Silent P, so could use both and they both get full rest for regionals. So Sunday championship game is Johnny Wholestaff.)
- Regionals - #4 seed lots of Rt batters (or #2 or 3 seed heavy Lt batters), who pitches to save Hjerpe for Saturday? (Depends who is available after this weekend. I don't like Silent P or Kmatz on short rest. Is Lattery an option?
I'm starting to think best case is a game-one Sat. win with Kmatz, then Sunday Lattery and bullpen. Silent P to start Regionals Friday, with Coop starting Saturday. At that point, OSU pen including Hunter not pitching since Wed. should be able to get the outs.
Kmatz and Pfennigs each threw on short college rest last week, and Pfennigs responded well. If Pfennigs throws on Saturday, he could be ready to throw on Friday, if necessary. Hjerpe would be on seven days' rest and eight if he pitches on Saturday. If Kmatz throws on Sunday, he would be on eight days' rest and would be throwing on college full rest on the following Sunday. Who has the more rubbery arm between Kmatz and Pfennigs? If one is going to throw on the 3rd, I want it to be the one that can turn around and throw on short rest, in case of a loss on Saturday or Sunday. I don't know the answer to that, but my guess is Kmatz. I see Pfennigs as more of a throws once and then rests until the Super Regional pitcher, which is not really ideal for a Friday pitcher. It would be better for a Sunday pitcher. Also, currently the advanced forecast shows a 24% chance of rain from Friday to Monday in Corvallis. If that changes, I think about other scenarios as well. And the Super Regional is whole 'nother ball of wax, because half start on Friday and the other half start on Saturday. Anyway, you might be right, but I also want to even the season series with both UCLA and Arizona/Stanford. Oregon State has never had the chance to win a Pac-12 Championship and even up two series in the process. |
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Post by Judge Smails on May 28, 2022 5:07:53 GMT -8
9-7 UCLA one out, Top of the 10th. Cal is gonna have to work hard in the bottom. That’s what the Kentucky head basketball coaches’ wife said? |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 28, 2022 5:44:28 GMT -8
Interesting thought. Jake threw on Saturday last week, so it would be his full-week rotation. Kmatz has pitched a lot of innings for a freshman - every week for a season much longer than HS. Canham and Dorman have to do "scenario planning." They need a plan to get the pitching staff the right amount of work to prep for regionals, understanding that winning a Regional is a lot more important than winning this "Pac-12-but-with-11-actual-teams-but-still-only-8-teams-double-elimination-except-for-the-most-important-championship-part" Tournament. Scenarios: - Sat. pitcher win, who starts Sun. (works great to start Kmatz and Pfennings in either order, but Stanford has not seen Jake)
- Sat. pitcher loss, who pitches Game 2 Sat, then who pitches Sun. (ucla has seen Kmatz and Silent P, so could use both and they both get full rest for regionals. So Sunday championship game is Johnny Wholestaff.)
- Regionals - #4 seed lots of Rt batters (or #2 or 3 seed heavy Lt batters), who pitches to save Hjerpe for Saturday? (Depends who is available after this weekend. I don't like Silent P or Kmatz on short rest. Is Lattery an option?
I'm starting to think best case is a game-one Sat. win with Kmatz, then Sunday Lattery and bullpen. Silent P to start Regionals Friday, with Coop starting Saturday. At that point, OSU pen including Hunter not pitching since Wed. should be able to get the outs.
Kmatz and Pfennigs each threw on short college rest last week, and Pfennigs responded well. If Pfennigs throws on Saturday, he could be ready to throw on Friday, if necessary. Hjerpe would be on seven days' rest and eight if he pitches on Saturday. If Kmatz throws on Sunday, he would be on eight days' rest and would be throwing on college full rest on the following Sunday. Who has the more rubbery arm between Kmatz and Pfennigs? If one is going to throw on the 3rd, I want it to be the one that can turn around and throw on short rest, in case of a loss on Saturday or Sunday. I don't know the answer to that, but my guess is Kmatz. I see Pfennigs as more of a throws once and then rests until the Super Regional pitcher, which is not really ideal for a Friday pitcher. It would be better for a Sunday pitcher. Also, currently the advanced forecast shows a 24% chance of rain from Friday to Monday in Corvallis. If that changes, I think about other scenarios as well. And the Super Regional is whole 'nother ball of wax, because half start on Friday and the other half start on Saturday. Anyway, you might be right, but I also want to even the season series with both UCLA and Arizona/Stanford. Oregon State has never had the chance to win a Pac-12 Championship and even up two series in the process. if we really want to go with a guy who can get back to it on short rest just have Ferrer start the regional and keep the rotation. If we can’t beat UCLA and Furd without Ferrer we’re probably in some trouble anyways. I don’t really see the rest issue so correct meme below please. 1) Friday June 3rd Hjerpe on 6.5 days rest. 2) Saturday June 4th Kmatz on 7 days rest. 3) Sunday June 5th Pfennigs on 7 days rest. Obviously a loss messes everything up but Hunter will be over 7 days rest and if we have to start extra arms for the tourney Townsend and Ferrer would also be on 5-7 days rest. What am I missing. |
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Post by 56chevy on May 28, 2022 6:27:42 GMT -8
The hay is in the barn at this point. I've got to give some credit to John Savage for publicly setting the tone about what he will and will not do to try to win the pac 12 tournament. Unless he's just rope a doping the rest of the league. As I seem to remember past years, didn't they make their decisions on National Seeds before our Sunday game was even completed.
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Post by william44 on May 28, 2022 6:36:12 GMT -8
Savage is setting up his pitching for next week: Let the chips fall where they may., I hope we play as few games as is possible.,Today will be brutal heat . I do hope Arizona roughs up Stanford forcing a later game. UCLA will be a challenge.
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