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Post by jimbeav on May 24, 2022 13:58:04 GMT -8
Putting aside arguments about whether this tourney should even exist (it shouldn't), what are folks' expectations and goals for OSU in the Pac-12 tournament?
Obviously we all want to win it, but we certainly don't need to. So what should we hope for?
7 of the 8 teams will leave with 2 more losses, making that side of the equation pretty meaningless. So the only question is how many wins we get, and what is reasonable to expect and needed to solidify a national seed.
My take on possible results:
0-2: Unacceptable. National seed in serious doubt.
1-2: Absolute bare minimum. Probably, maybe still get the #8 national seed, barely.
2-2: A "good" result. I'd be happy with this. 2 wins gets us to the final 4 teams, and should keep us around our current 3-4 national seed, maybe down to 5 or 6. Top 8 is all that matters.
Anything better than this will be gravy IMO. I doubt we'll move much higher than a 3-4 seed unless we make a run to the final or even win it outright.
I really like Hunter as our starter tomorrow. The Huskies haven't seen him, and if the dawgs bang him around anyway, I have a ton of confidence in Coop and Kmatz to get our 2 needed wins in the loser's bracket. I don't care where we get our 2 wins, just that we get them.
The best-case scenario is obviously going 4-0 and winning in a sweep, but after that I'd almost prefer to go 2-2 and save our arms, rather than extending and going 3-2, 4-2, or hell, even 5-1 and winning it all through the loser's bracket. Really don't like thinking what that will do to our pitching staff...
I hope our young bench pitchers are locked and loaded and looking at this as their CWS, which it kind of is. If we're in game 5 or 6 of the tournament and they're getting knocked around, there is no cavalry to the rescue. No seasoned veteran who's already been spent is going to come and save the day, because they have bigger fish to fry next week. The latter days of the tournament will be all about our young guys. Time show what you can do, gentlemen...
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Post by irimi on May 24, 2022 15:15:53 GMT -8
Putting aside arguments about whether this tourney should even exist (it shouldn't), what are folks' expectations and goals for OSU in the Pac-12 tournament? Obviously we all want to win it, but we certainly don't need to. So what should we hope for? 7 of the 8 teams will leave with 2 more losses, making that side of the equation pretty meaningless. So the only question is how many wins we get, and what is reasonable to expect and needed to solidify a national seed. My take on possible results: 0-2: Unacceptable. National seed in serious doubt. 1-2: Absolute bare minimum. Probably, maybe still get the #8 national seed, barely. 2-2: A "good" result. I'd be happy with this. 2 wins gets us to the final 4 teams, and should keep us around our current 3-4 national seed, maybe down to 5 or 6. Top 8 is all that matters. Anything better than this will be gravy IMO. I doubt we'll move much higher than a 3-4 seed unless we make a run to the final or even win it outright. I really like Hunter as our starter tomorrow. The Huskies haven't seen him, and if the dawgs bang him around anyway, I have a ton of confidence in Coop and Kmatz to get our 2 needed wins in the loser's bracket. I don't care where we get our 2 wins, just that we get them. The best-case scenario is obviously going 4-0 and winning in a sweep, but after that I'd almost prefer to go 2-2 and save our arms, rather than extending and going 3-2, 4-2, or hell, even 5-1 and winning it all through the loser's bracket. Really don't like thinking what that will do to our pitching staff... I hope our young bench pitchers are locked and loaded and looking at this as their CWS, which it kind of is. If we're in game 5 or 6 of the tournament and they're getting knocked around, there is no cavalry to the rescue. No seasoned veteran who's already been spent is going to come and save the day, because they have bigger fish to fry next week. The latter days of the tournament will be all about our young guys. Time show what you can do, gentlemen... If we do well with Hunter leading the charge tomorrow, then we're set up to finish strong. Now comes the time when all that pitching matters. We've got more quality pitchers than most other teams. That Sunday starter is a weakness for most teams, but not for us. And the midweek starters. We've got those. I can't remember going into a postseason feeling this good about our pitching and being able to rest arms. |
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Post by rgeorge on May 24, 2022 16:07:26 GMT -8
Putting aside arguments about whether this tourney should even exist (it shouldn't), what are folks' expectations and goals for OSU in the Pac-12 tournament? Obviously we all want to win it, but we certainly don't need to. So what should we hope for? 7 of the 8 teams will leave with 2 more losses, making that side of the equation pretty meaningless. So the only question is how many wins we get, and what is reasonable to expect and needed to solidify a national seed. My take on possible results: 0-2: Unacceptable. National seed in serious doubt. 1-2: Absolute bare minimum. Probably, maybe still get the #8 national seed, barely. 2-2: A "good" result. I'd be happy with this. 2 wins gets us to the final 4 teams, and should keep us around our current 3-4 national seed, maybe down to 5 or 6. Top 8 is all that matters. Anything better than this will be gravy IMO. I doubt we'll move much higher than a 3-4 seed unless we make a run to the final or even win it outright. I really like Hunter as our starter tomorrow. The Huskies haven't seen him, and if the dawgs bang him around anyway, I have a ton of confidence in Coop and Kmatz to get our 2 needed wins in the loser's bracket. I don't care where we get our 2 wins, just that we get them. The best-case scenario is obviously going 4-0 and winning in a sweep, but after that I'd almost prefer to go 2-2 and save our arms, rather than extending and going 3-2, 4-2, or hell, even 5-1 and winning it all through the loser's bracket. Really don't like thinking what that will do to our pitching staff... I hope our young bench pitchers are locked and loaded and looking at this as their CWS, which it kind of is. If we're in game 5 or 6 of the tournament and they're getting knocked around, there is no cavalry to the rescue. No seasoned veteran who's already been spent is going to come and save the day, because they have bigger fish to fry next week. The latter days of the tournament will be all about our young guys. Time show what you can do, gentlemen... If we do well with Hunter leading the charge tomorrow, then we're set up to finish strong. Now comes the time when all that pitching matters. We've got more quality pitchers than most other teams. That Sunday starter is a weakness for most teams, but not for us. And the midweek starters. We've got those. I can't remember going into a postseason feeling this good about our pitching and being able to rest arms. Out of all OSU's postseason staffs?? Or, you just don't remember your outlooks then? In my mind this '22 staff isn't on the same level/inferior as several of our past postseason staffs. Omaha teams and not. Pac12 tourney or not overall pitching is my #1 concern/doubt. Bottom of our order #2. |
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Post by chinmusic on May 24, 2022 18:52:31 GMT -8
Hunter will start against UW, then right back into the rotation with Hjerpe-Kmatz-Pfennigs.
Disrupting the rotation and their schedule doesn't make any sense for OSU.
Roll right into the Regionals with the rotation intact and on schedule.
Having said that, innings and pitch counts are discretionary.
If OSU should jump out to a big lead early, you may see the starter pulled after 3 or 4 innings as opposed to extending him 6 or 7.
Look for our reserves to see increased PT in this tournament.
Finally, I suspect way too much weight is being given to this tournament. There are baseball people on the committee that see this tournament for what it is and understand completely the factors in play with several of the best teams. Excessive weighting won't be allowed to cloud their judgement.
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 24, 2022 19:22:03 GMT -8
Hunter will start against UW, then right back into the rotation with Hjerpe-Kmatz-Pfennigs. Disrupting the rotation and their schedule doesn't make any sense for OSU. Roll right into the Regionals with the rotation intact and on schedule. Having said that, innings and pitch counts are discretionary. If OSU should jump out to a big lead early, you may see the starter pulled after 3 or 4 innings as opposed to extending him 6 or 7. Look for our reserves to see increased PT in this tournament. Finally, I suspect way too much weight is being given to this tournament. There are baseball people on the committee that see this tournament for what it is and understand completely the factors in play with several of the best teams. Excessive weighting won't be allowed to cloud their judgement. More than anything the tournament is just another development step for a team that is already going to host a regional. Clinching a National seed is important but overall we just doubled the teams yearly experience with the format. Surprise to open the year gives an idea of what we have on the team in a competitive environment, tourney at the end gives us a chance to refine the team and work out any issues before the regional. The rest of the season works out as a 4-6 game tourney, 3-5 game tourney, series, 3-5 game tourney, series. If we can go 4 games deep that’s will give a good coaching staff plenty of information on how to manage a regional loss. |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 24, 2022 21:08:10 GMT -8
Putting aside arguments about whether this tourney should even exist (it shouldn't), what are folks' expectations and goals for OSU in the Pac-12 tournament? Obviously we all want to win it, but we certainly don't need to. So what should we hope for? 7 of the 8 teams will leave with 2 more losses, making that side of the equation pretty meaningless. So the only question is how many wins we get, and what is reasonable to expect and needed to solidify a national seed. My take on possible results: 0-2: Unacceptable. National seed in serious doubt. 1-2: Absolute bare minimum. Probably, maybe still get the #8 national seed, barely. 2-2: A "good" result. I'd be happy with this. 2 wins gets us to the final 4 teams, and should keep us around our current 3-4 national seed, maybe down to 5 or 6. Top 8 is all that matters. Anything better than this will be gravy IMO. I doubt we'll move much higher than a 3-4 seed unless we make a run to the final or even win it outright. I really like Hunter as our starter tomorrow. The Huskies haven't seen him, and if the dawgs bang him around anyway, I have a ton of confidence in Coop and Kmatz to get our 2 needed wins in the loser's bracket. I don't care where we get our 2 wins, just that we get them. The best-case scenario is obviously going 4-0 and winning in a sweep, but after that I'd almost prefer to go 2-2 and save our arms, rather than extending and going 3-2, 4-2, or hell, even 5-1 and winning it all through the loser's bracket. Really don't like thinking what that will do to our pitching staff... I hope our young bench pitchers are locked and loaded and looking at this as their CWS, which it kind of is. If we're in game 5 or 6 of the tournament and they're getting knocked around, there is no cavalry to the rescue. No seasoned veteran who's already been spent is going to come and save the day, because they have bigger fish to fry next week. The latter days of the tournament will be all about our young guys. Time show what you can do, gentlemen... If we do well with Hunter leading the charge tomorrow, then we're set up to finish strong. Now comes the time when all that pitching matters. We've got more quality pitchers than most other teams. That Sunday starter is a weakness for most teams, but not for us. And the midweek starters. We've got those. I can't remember going into a postseason feeling this good about our pitching and being able to rest arms. Before the last two weekends I would've agreed. Overall, we do have the arms to compete with anyone. Be nice to have a few more lefties though....and Lattery. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 24, 2022 21:13:19 GMT -8
Putting aside arguments about whether this tourney should even exist (it shouldn't), what are folks' expectations and goals for OSU in the Pac-12 tournament? Obviously we all want to win it, but we certainly don't need to. So what should we hope for? 7 of the 8 teams will leave with 2 more losses, making that side of the equation pretty meaningless. So the only question is how many wins we get, and what is reasonable to expect and needed to solidify a national seed. My take on possible results: 0-2: Unacceptable. National seed in serious doubt. 1-2: Absolute bare minimum. Probably, maybe still get the #8 national seed, barely. 2-2: A "good" result. I'd be happy with this. 2 wins gets us to the final 4 teams, and should keep us around our current 3-4 national seed, maybe down to 5 or 6. Top 8 is all that matters. Anything better than this will be gravy IMO. I doubt we'll move much higher than a 3-4 seed unless we make a run to the final or even win it outright. I really like Hunter as our starter tomorrow. The Huskies haven't seen him, and if the dawgs bang him around anyway, I have a ton of confidence in Coop and Kmatz to get our 2 needed wins in the loser's bracket. I don't care where we get our 2 wins, just that we get them. The best-case scenario is obviously going 4-0 and winning in a sweep, but after that I'd almost prefer to go 2-2 and save our arms, rather than extending and going 3-2, 4-2, or hell, even 5-1 and winning it all through the loser's bracket. Really don't like thinking what that will do to our pitching staff... I hope our young bench pitchers are locked and loaded and looking at this as their CWS, which it kind of is. If we're in game 5 or 6 of the tournament and they're getting knocked around, there is no cavalry to the rescue. No seasoned veteran who's already been spent is going to come and save the day, because they have bigger fish to fry next week. The latter days of the tournament will be all about our young guys. Time show what you can do, gentlemen... If we do well with Hunter leading the charge tomorrow, then we're set up to finish strong. Now comes the time when all that pitching matters. We've got more quality pitchers than most other teams. That Sunday starter is a weakness for most teams, but not for us. And the midweek starters. We've got those. I can't remember going into a postseason feeling this good about our pitching and being able to rest arms. 2017? I felt great about 2017 until Rasmussen was injured again and then the Oregonian decided to print their story at an inopportune time. I mean, that team was so good that Fehmel basically road pine (demoted to the fifth starter and pitched one total inning) over a five-week period, beginning in early May to the Super Regional weekend, and Oregon State did not even feel it. Fun fact: outside of 2016 and 2020, 2022 Oregon State has the worst team ERA since 2010. |
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Post by irimi on May 24, 2022 21:29:49 GMT -8
If we do well with Hunter leading the charge tomorrow, then we're set up to finish strong. Now comes the time when all that pitching matters. We've got more quality pitchers than most other teams. That Sunday starter is a weakness for most teams, but not for us. And the midweek starters. We've got those. I can't remember going into a postseason feeling this good about our pitching and being able to rest arms. Out of all OSU's postseason staffs?? Or, you just don't remember your outlooks then? In my mind this '22 staff isn't on the same level/inferior as several of our past postseason staffs. Omaha teams and not. Pac12 tourney or not overall pitching is my #1 concern/doubt. Bottom of our order #2. Take 2018 as an example. Who was our Sunday starter? For a while, it was Gambrell. Then it was Abel throwing a few innings and everyone else finishing it up for a big loss. That's a huge difference. Staff from 2018: Tweedt, LH, Gambrell, Abel, Burns, Fehmel, Britton, Verburg, Chamberlain, Mully, and Pearce. Mully was a solid closer. LH was great until the postseason. Abel was mediocre (at best) until the postseason. Fehmel was money. And I'd argue that 2017 had less. Great guys, sure, but not the depth we have now. Hjerpe is one of the top pitchers in the country, much like LH was. Pfennigs is every bit as good as any of the other Beaver pitchers of those years. Kmatz and Ferrer have outperformed expectations. Though Ferrer has spent a lot of time coming in as relief, he can certainly start a game. And those are just our regular pitchers. We still have Lattery, Sebby, and Hibbard to talk about. So we have Carpenter who is inconsistent. But a lot of pitchers who struggled early in the season (such as Boisvert and Townsend) have become much better and more reliable. There was a point when the board was ready to lynch Verburg...I think you were leading the charge...but he has shown great improvement. And Brown to close. Like I said, I feel pretty strongly that we have the depth to do well in tournaments. Hell, we won't have to pitch Abel on back to back days at least. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 24, 2022 21:58:06 GMT -8
Out of all OSU's postseason staffs?? Or, you just don't remember your outlooks then? In my mind this '22 staff isn't on the same level/inferior as several of our past postseason staffs. Omaha teams and not. Pac12 tourney or not overall pitching is my #1 concern/doubt. Bottom of our order #2. Take 2018 as an example. Who was our Sunday starter? For a while, it was Gambrell. Then it was Abel throwing a few innings and everyone else finishing it up for a big loss. That's a huge difference. Staff from 2018: Tweedt, LH, Gambrell, Abel, Burns, Fehmel, Britton, Verburg, Chamberlain, Mully, and Pearce. Mully was a solid closer. LH was great until the postseason. Abel was mediocre (at best) until the postseason. Fehmel was money. And I'd argue that 2017 had less. Great guys, sure, but not the depth we have now. Hjerpe is one of the top pitchers in the country, much like LH was. Pfennigs is every bit as good as any of the other Beaver pitchers of those years. Kmatz and Ferrer have outperformed expectations. Though Ferrer has spent a lot of time coming in as relief, he can certainly start a game. And those are just our regular pitchers. We still have Lattery, Sebby, and Hibbard to talk about. So we have Carpenter who is inconsistent. But a lot of pitchers who struggled early in the season (such as Boisvert and Townsend) have become much better and more reliable. There was a point when the board was ready to lynch Verburg...I think you were leading the charge...but he has shown great improvement. And Brown to close. Like I said, I feel pretty strongly that we have the depth to do well in tournaments. Hell, we won't have to pitch Abel on back to back days at least. Just going off feel more than any facts here. We just don’t have much star factor on the mound this year compared to others. We have Hjerpe who is definitely a star and then a bunch of really good pitchers and then some alright guys. It feels like a better average staff but not a lot of greatness (yet). Like playing Stanford and UCLA they both had like 5 incredible pitchers then the bullpen falls off quick. That said our bullpen was worrisome at the start of the year in both performance and how many arms we lost. Nice to see them coming up. |
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Post by beavs6 on May 24, 2022 22:38:12 GMT -8
Take 2018 as an example. Who was our Sunday starter? For a while, it was Gambrell. Then it was Abel throwing a few innings and everyone else finishing it up for a big loss. That's a huge difference. Staff from 2018: Tweedt, LH, Gambrell, Abel, Burns, Fehmel, Britton, Verburg, Chamberlain, Mully, and Pearce. Mully was a solid closer. LH was great until the postseason. Abel was mediocre (at best) until the postseason. Fehmel was money. And I'd argue that 2017 had less. Great guys, sure, but not the depth we have now. Hjerpe is one of the top pitchers in the country, much like LH was. Pfennigs is every bit as good as any of the other Beaver pitchers of those years. Kmatz and Ferrer have outperformed expectations. Though Ferrer has spent a lot of time coming in as relief, he can certainly start a game. And those are just our regular pitchers. We still have Lattery, Sebby, and Hibbard to talk about. So we have Carpenter who is inconsistent. But a lot of pitchers who struggled early in the season (such as Boisvert and Townsend) have become much better and more reliable. There was a point when the board was ready to lynch Verburg...I think you were leading the charge...but he has shown great improvement. And Brown to close. Like I said, I feel pretty strongly that we have the depth to do well in tournaments. Hell, we won't have to pitch Abel on back to back days at least. Just going off feel more than any facts here. We just don’t have much star factor on the mound this year compared to others. We have Hjerpe who is definitely a star and then a bunch of really good pitchers and then some alright guys. It feels like a better average staff but not a lot of greatness (yet). Like playing Stanford and UCLA they both had like 5 incredible pitchers then the bullpen falls off quick. That said our bullpen was worrisome at the start of the year in both performance and how many arms we lost. Nice to see them coming up. Well, after Cooper we have Pfennigs, Katz, and Ferrer. All would be welcome on any staff, IMO. |
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Post by RenoBeaver on May 25, 2022 6:02:08 GMT -8
Is Pac 10 tourney double elimination?
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 25, 2022 6:05:41 GMT -8
Just going off feel more than any facts here. We just don’t have much star factor on the mound this year compared to others. We have Hjerpe who is definitely a star and then a bunch of really good pitchers and then some alright guys. It feels like a better average staff but not a lot of greatness (yet). Like playing Stanford and UCLA they both had like 5 incredible pitchers then the bullpen falls off quick. That said our bullpen was worrisome at the start of the year in both performance and how many arms we lost. Nice to see them coming up. Well, after Cooper we have Pfennigs, Katz, and Ferrer. All would be welcome on any staff, IMO. I agree but are any of them stars? Maybe? Best example I can come up with off the top of my head is mlb allstars. There’s 24 pitchers selected as allstar and a maximum of 420 pitchers in the show. That means about 6% of pitchers are stars any given year. So…really reaching for straws you could use the draft. You could go with top 6% by round or top 6% of pitchers selected, idk it’s already pretty silly. Rounds is easier so we could call it the first 1.2 rounds. Pitchers is pretty easy, about 650 pitchers are selected each year so 39. College pitchers is a pain but why not. Roughly 2/3 of the draft is college players each year. Roughly 50% of drafted players are pitchers. That,, very roughly, works out to 22 pitchers. Does anyone on the team rank in the top 1.2 rounds, top 39 pitchers or top 22 pitchers besides Coop? Probably not. Very few teams will have 2 of those guys. 2017 is the only year I can think of where we had 2 first rounders on staff with Rasmussen and LH. LH didn’t get selected due to the legal issues but his electric pitching and ridiculous stats would have had him as a first rounder. |
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Post by grackle on May 25, 2022 6:18:29 GMT -8
Is Pac 10 tourney double elimination? yes. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 25, 2022 6:28:35 GMT -8
Is Pac 10 tourney double elimination? Except for the final game. It’s winner takes all |
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 25, 2022 6:30:07 GMT -8
Win a couple games, get ready to host as a national seed.
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