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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 21, 2022 18:05:28 GMT -8
I quit playing baseball in 1996 and never coached or cared a day in my life past some sad years over committing to the mariners, some cool years over committing to the giants and beaver baseball. Most of what I know comes from reading articles, interviews with coaches/players, write ups on specific topics I google, reading online boards and whatever play by play guys jabber about. I guess observation over actively listening/watching around 700 games in my life is part of it too.
Recently I have been getting harassed constantly by rgeorge and small judge over pretty much everything but the latest, that I saw, is that I enjoy paying attention to and posting pitch counts in game and making observations about it. I don’t really know if they are just trolling or have a point.
So if people could chime in with their thoughts on what pitch count means and if it matters please let me know. Here are my thoughts on pitch count and why I watch it.
1) Pitch count has very little to do with a single game result unless you are in an extreme case where a starter you rely on gets knocked out early in the game (let’s say first 3 innings) and you have substantial drop off in bullpen quality after them.
2) An individuals pitch count doesn’t really matter if they can go deep in a game with quality pitching. For an individual it’s just kind of an indication of how long they can stay in a game, how effective they have been and how soon they can heat their arm back up. Example would be a contact/location pitcher verse a high heat strike out pitcher. Contact pitchers tend to have fewer pitches per put as they get people to make contact with bad hitters pitches and use the defense. Strike out pitchers tend to have higher pitch counts as it requires atleast 3 pitches per out for their preferred out method.
3) When looks at a 3 game series or double elimination most teams consider the first game to be a critical win. I didn’t look it up but I vaguely remember that in conference the winner of the first series game wins the series 60-70% of the time. This is related to pitch count as it means that most teams will use their top ace, relief and closer in a first game to secure a win. While the starter really doesn’t matter, outside of case 1, loading up top relievers and closers with high pitch counts means they are less likely to be used as n the other two games of the series. Example would be UCLA going all in with Harrison and Tredwell in game 1 and 2 to secure the wins by using up their most talented bullpen members.
So it seems awfully logical that if you can knock it he best of a bullpen out in the first two games your game 3 gets much easier for the hitters. So we f you can do that and win one of the first two games your odds of favorable pitching match ups in the third game go way up. Following that logic you would be a team that loses fewer series and is very hard to sweep if you also force teams into their bull pen with high pitch counts.
4) The mlb literally has utility guys slow pitch crap in games they don’t think they can win to ‘save’ arms for future games. If pitch counts and heating guys up too often isn’t an issue then why is the mlb doing this? I guess it makes for funny clips so you can trend more on Twitter?
5) You can’t find a bullpen discussion on this server where depth and, pitch counts and multiple series relief appearance’s are not mentioned. Seems to reason the people that follow baseball understand that you need to preserve quality arms to win. For example someone might mention an efficient 2 inning outing for a quality reliever and then mention that low amount of work means we may see them later in the series or as support in midweek.
Am I missing a huge part of the game here or just being gaslighted?
Edit: I’m aware there are probably typos. I have 3 learning disabilities around language and when I use a phone it is substantially worse. I apologize if any of that is incoherent and I am happy to clarify if you make me aware of it.
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Post by whocares on May 21, 2022 18:56:50 GMT -8
The fact that the "Live Stats" keep a running pitch count must mean others beside you want that information, as it relates to each individual pitcher. Not sure the total of several pitchers really tells us much but the beauty of a message board is you can just scroll on past if you're not interested.
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Post by irimi on May 21, 2022 20:14:01 GMT -8
I care about individual pitcher pitch counts. Honestly, I’ve never thought to compare total game pitch counts across multiple pitchers. I’m sure baseball statisticians can draw some inference from it. They seem to be able to read a lot into just about anything.
I think a lower total number of pitches means the team is being efficient. Logically, a 1-2-3 inning would probably require fewer pitches than going to 5 or 6 hitters. But not always. I think it would be interesting to see if it is any indicator of success across a large selection of games. In other words, I don’t know.
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Post by spudbeaver on May 21, 2022 20:25:19 GMT -8
Regardless, I urge you let it go. Smails is obviously toying with you and you make it worse every time you respond. Rgeorge is well, Rgeorge. Most likely nothing personal but a dog with a bone. My advice is to keep posting pitch count stats as you like. It’s a free country! Have fun! Don’t get caught up in the trap, go around it.
Just my $.02!
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Post by chinmusic on May 21, 2022 22:00:21 GMT -8
If you wish to post pitch counts, by all means do it.
Baseball was played over 100 years before anyone ever heard of a pitch count. Can anyone ever remember reading about Walter "Big Train" Johnson, Christy Mathieson, or Lefty Grove being on a pitch count? Move forward to the post-war 1940's. 50's and 60's with "Spahn, Sain and pray for rain with the old Boston Braves - those guys were involved with 35+ W-L decisions every year and most of their starts were complete games. Same with Howie Pollet and Harry Brecheen and the '46 Cardinals. Not uncommon in those days to see pitchers with 22-14 records. The great front line of the Cleveland Indians - Feller, Wynn, Lemon and Garcia, can you remember the reliever? There wasn't one - you start it and you finish it.
The age of the reliever began with Joe Page who had 60 relief appearances with the Yankees in the 60's. The Phillie Jim Konstanty had 74 appearances one year. MLB was learning the value of reducing "starter innings" and going to the bullpen for a fresh arm. Along came Mike Marshall, a closer that had a Masters from Michingan State in Human Physiology, pumped iron, and stretched daily. He taught baseball you could pitch every day for an inning or two with good body care. LaRusa used Eckersly like a fireman at Oakland, Goose Gosage came around and the "quality start" (5 or 6 inning start) became in vogue. Get 5 or 6 innings from your starter, then win it with the bullpen. It wasn't long before "pitch counts" appeared. Pitch counts are fairly universal now with counts varying among the starters - some guys can hold their velo and command for 150 pitches (Tim Lincecum ring a bell), others are gassed and losig effectiveness at 80.
Studies have demonstrated the value of not over doing the workload of an arm. Where pitch counts are most needed are in the youth leagues (from age 8 through 18) The number one issue with the UCL "Tommy John surgery", is throwing too hard for too long. Anatomically, arms are still developing through the high school years.
Many youth leagues like Little League, Pony League, and Babe Ruth League have limits on number of innings that may be pitched. Arm care and overuse are also concerns at the high school and Ameeican Legion level as well.
It is likely, Beaver pitchers are filmed, gunned and charted during bullpen sessions so Coach Dorman knows precisely at what pitch count you begin to lose velocity, RPMs (spin rate) or location ability. For Cooper Hjerpe, the point of decline might be 112 and for Ian Lawson, it might be 87. Analytics and science have taken the guesswork out of it in today's game.
Pitch counts can be a little deceiving. If you have a Luke Heimlich, who can hit a mosquito from 60'6" and a framer like Adley Rutschman, you will be pitching just out of the zone as much as in the zone. Luke would paint the black, then locate one about 3" off the corner and watch them chase. Adley was probably good for 12-15 "framed strikes a game" - ideal for pitchig out of the zone. Both might contribute to a higher pitch count than you might imagine with a 2 hit shutout and 14 K's a game.
In other words, post those pitch counts.
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Post by blackbug on May 21, 2022 22:27:15 GMT -8
Pitch counts matter. The team with the lower amount of pitches is most likely to win. It is not the strongest correlative stat, but is a beneficial indicator of success. In the the 3rd game of the weekend the correlation to victory increases.
The 2 hecklers are immature and annoying. They apparently get off acting like they are in junior high picking on an easy target.
Nuclearbeaver knows that not all his posts are not 100% accurate or some may have the wrong outlook. I am the same . There is nothing wrong with that. It is a message board where ideas are shared.
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Post by messi on May 22, 2022 6:44:50 GMT -8
Keep doing pitch counts, it’s a metric of the game just like all the other stats out there.
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 22, 2022 7:20:08 GMT -8
Regardless, I urge you let it go. Smails is obviously toying with you and you make it worse every time you respond. Rgeorge is well, Rgeorge. Most likely nothing personal but a dog with a bone. My advice is to keep posting pitch count stats as you like. It’s a free country! Have fun! Don’t get caught up in the trap, go around it. Just my $.02! Thanks for the advice. The point isn’t them being trolls and bullies it’s about me learning something. Just because someone sucks doesn’t mean they can’t be right. I just don’t see how they could be so I’m asking to learn I know I seem like the kind of guy that was super popular but turns out this is not the first time I have been targeted by a bully lol |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 22, 2022 7:26:00 GMT -8
If you wish to post pitch counts, by all means do it. Baseball was played over 100 years before anyone ever heard of a pitch count. Can anyone ever remember reading about Walter "Big Train" Johnson, Christy Mathieson, or Lefty Grove being on a pitch count? Move forward to the post-war 1940's. 50's and 60's with "Spahn, Sain and pray for rain with the old Boston Braves - those guys were involved with 35+ W-L decisions every year and most of their starts were complete games. Same with Howie Pollet and Harry Brecheen and the '46 Cardinals. Not uncommon in those days to see pitchers with 22-14 records. The great front line of the Cleveland Indians - Feller, Wynn, Lemon and Garcia, can you remember the reliever? There wasn't one - you start it and you finish it. The age of the reliever began with Joe Page who had 60 relief appearances with the Yankees in the 60's. The Phillie Jim Konstanty had 74 appearances one year. MLB was learning the value of reducing "starter innings" and going to the bullpen for a fresh arm. Along came Mike Marshall, a closer that had a Masters from Michingan State in Human Physiology, pumped iron, and stretched daily. He taught baseball you could pitch every day for an inning or two with good body care. LaRusa used Eckersly like a fireman at Oakland, Goose Gosage came around and the "quality start" (5 or 6 inning start) became in vogue. Get 5 or 6 innings from your starter, then win it with the bullpen. It wasn't long before "pitch counts" appeared. Pitch counts are fairly universal now with counts varying among the starters - some guys can hold their velo and command for 150 pitches (Tim Lincecum ring a bell), others are gassed and losig effectiveness at 80. Studies have demonstrated the value of not over doing the workload of an arm. Where pitch counts are most needed are in the youth leagues (from age 8 through 18) The number one issue with the UCL "Tommy John surgery", is throwing too hard for too long. Anatomically, arms are still developing through the high school years. Many youth leagues like Little League, Pony League, and Babe Ruth League have limits on number of innings that may be pitched. Arm care and overuse are also concerns at the high school and Ameeican Legion level as well. It is likely, Beaver pitchers are filmed, gunned and charted during bullpen sessions so Coach Dorman knows precisely at what pitch count you begin to lose velocity, RPMs (spin rate) or location ability. For Cooper Hjerpe, the point of decline might be 112 and for Ian Lawson, it might be 87. Analytics and science have taken the guesswork out of it in today's game. Pitch counts can be a little deceiving. If you have a Luke Heimlich, who can hit a mosquito from 60'6" and a framer like Adley Rutschman, you will be pitching just out of the zone as much as in the zone. Luke would paint the black, then locate one about 3" off the corner and watch them chase. Adley was probably good for 12-15 "framed strikes a game" - ideal for pitchig out of the zone. Both might contribute to a higher pitch count than you might imagine with a 2 hit shutout and 14 K's a game. In other words, post those pitch counts. Thanks Chin, good stuff on the history and process for individuals. I also love that you point out how important a talented catcher can be for a guy that can locate at an elite level. What’s your take on a guy like Ferrer who seems to be able to go 50-70 midweek then still toss relief on Friday and Sunday? Is he just a freak or is that something that can be developed? |
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Post by rgeorge on May 22, 2022 10:43:43 GMT -8
Regardless, I urge you let it go. Smails is obviously toying with you and you make it worse every time you respond. Rgeorge is well, Rgeorge. Most likely nothing personal but a dog with a bone. My advice is to keep posting pitch count stats as you like. It’s a free country! Have fun! Don’t get caught up in the trap, go around it. Just my $.02! Thanks for the advice. The point isn’t them being trolls and bullies it’s about me learning something. Just because someone sucks doesn’t mean they can’t be right. I just don’t see how they could be so I’m asking to learn I know I seem like the kind of guy that was super popular but turns out this is not the first time I have been targeted by a bully lol Have you wondered why?? Actually the point here is social media "self esteem". If you don't have it in real life a message board is not the place to seek it. ALL ideas should be welcome. So the hypocrites that will state that then say, "but not ... and ... ". As far as a quick scan shows, no one called you names? No one swore at you? All responses were related to data you stated as factual and was not. You then responded. Not with any support of your opinion or claim of any factual support, but in a manner similar to what you claim "bullies" did. Most of the later posts were obviously sarcastic, at your expense, and you continued to engage before crying foul. Here's a "learning" tool for you. Message boards of athletic teams actually have fans that call out BS. When you post data and say it is a key to winning or losing, or a certain player is the key to an offensive drop off, and it is not factually true you're going to get called out on it. If you want to "learn" do the actual research versus posting to be part of the " baseball gang". Those "trolls", "hecklers", "bullies" that actually discount your posts with factual data will then again respond when you engage in similar troll-like replies. Coupled with the fact your replies make no attempt to actually defend your stated position. In fact you completely ignored the Wheeler rebuttal and basically went on a little "whine' to block. If you want to "learn" again maybe actually do the work. Of course, your absolute lamest move late in the "whine" sequence, you come out with the learning disabilities post. Then proceed to blame folks for making fun of it. " Weird he attacks my learning disabilities when he either can't read..." posted prior to you starting this thread and in a different thread.
We're they supposed to have known that previously? Did you post some background info on these issues previously? If so, I certainly missed that autobiographical profile. By the way you may want to "learn" about a board by reading some of the past posts. If you would you'd see there are many who have been made fun of, chastised, etc for language and spelling. You're not special in that arena, folks get into meaningless banter all the time. Nor was anyone making fun of a disability. In fact, one characteristic of this board, folks are pretty sensitive to issues that pertain to that kind of stuff. Lastly, if your skin is so thin that it leads you to start a separate thread to get "permission"? Empathy/sympathy? A few posts of support? LOL... all of the above? Maybe message boards are not where you need to "learn". Everyone is welcome here, but guy, you're 32 years old (I think that's what you mentioned??)... grow some! |
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Post by beavs6 on May 22, 2022 13:52:48 GMT -8
Thanks for the advice. The point isn’t them being trolls and bullies it’s about me learning something. Just because someone sucks doesn’t mean they can’t be right. I just don’t see how they could be so I’m asking to learn I know I seem like the kind of guy that was super popular but turns out this is not the first time I have been targeted by a bully lol Have you wondered why?? Actually the point here is social media "self esteem". If you don't have it in real life a message board is not the place to seek it. ALL ideas should be welcome. So the hypocrites that will state that then say, "but not ... and ... ". As far as a quick scan shows, no one called you names? No one swore at you? All responses were related to data you stated as factual and was not. You then responded. Not with any support of your opinion or claim of any factual support, but in a manner similar to what you claim "bullies" did. Most of the later posts were obviously sarcastic, at your expense, and you continued to engage before crying foul. Here's a "learning" tool for you. Message boards of athletic teams actually have fans that call out BS. When you post data and say it is a key to winning or losing, or a certain player is the key to an offensive drop off, and it is not factually true you're going to get called out on it. If you want to "learn" do the actual research versus posting to be part of the " baseball gang". Those "trolls", "hecklers", "bullies" that actually discount your posts with factual data will then again respond when you engage in similar troll-like replies. Coupled with the fact your replies make no attempt to actually defend your stated position. In fact you completely ignored the Wheeler rebuttal and basically went on a little "whine' to block. If you want to "learn" again maybe actually do the work. Of course, your absolute lamest move late in the "whine" sequence, you come out with the learning disabilities post. Then proceed to blame folks for making fun of it. " Weird he attacks my learning disabilities when he either can't read..." posted prior to you starting this thread and in a different thread.
We're they supposed to have known that previously? Did you post some background info on these issues previously? If so, I certainly missed that autobiographical profile. By the way you may want to "learn" about a board by reading some of the past posts. If you would you'd see there are many who have been made fun of, chastised, etc for language and spelling. You're not special in that arena, folks get into meaningless banter all the time. Nor was anyone making fun of a disability. In fact, one characteristic of this board, folks are pretty sensitive to issues that pertain to that kind of stuff. Lastly, if your skin is so thin that it leads you to start a separate thread to get "permission"? Empathy/sympathy? A few posts of support? LOL... all of the above? Maybe message boards are not where you need to "learn". Everyone is welcome here, but guy, you're 32 years old (I think that's what you mentioned??)... grow some! LOL. You quite possibly may be the LAST REGULAR POSTER on this board that should be handing out advice. Taking it, yes. Giving it? A hard NO. That’s a poll I would like to see. But feel free to keep posting. (NB has mentioned his personal challenges before. I’m sure you’ve read them, you read everything. Just doesn’t fit your narrative.) I’m sure you will respond. As usual, you can have the last word. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 22, 2022 14:27:26 GMT -8
bennyshouse.com/post/274609/threadbennyshouse.com/post/274672/threadPost is about pitch count and its relevance not ruining every thread by attacking others. I was explaining why I was confused in the first place. I don't need sympathy, I have a killer life. George I get targeted cause I have a weird sense of humor, am a nerd, don't back down to bully's and have things about me that are easy to go after. Maybe you should wonder why you are a bully seeking the easiest and shallowest esteem points on the planet, making other people feel like s%#t. I'm off to enjoy my life on a beautiful day and listen to the softball team. Enjoy picking apart my life you know nothing about while you get a boner that I responded to you through a third party post. =)
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Post by rgeorge on May 22, 2022 15:51:09 GMT -8
bennyshouse.com/post/274609/threadbennyshouse.com/post/274672/threadPost is about pitch count and its relevance not ruining every thread by attacking others. I was explaining why I was confused in the first place. I don't need sympathy, I have a killer life. George I get targeted cause I have a weird sense of humor, am a nerd, don't back down to bully's and have things about me that are easy to go after. Maybe you should wonder why you are a bully seeking the easiest and shallowest esteem points on the planet, making other people feel like s%#t. I'm off to enjoy my life on a beautiful day and listen to the softball team. Enjoy picking apart my life you know nothing about while you get a boner that I responded to you through a third party post. =) Cool, missed that posting. So, you again pointed out said disabilities after he "made fun"? Thx for clarifying a 2nd time. Funny... how would I know your particular "esteem" points? Or "things" about you? "You" were never the issue. You made it about you. The discussion/posts by me specifically were about your posts and their veracity. Followed by some admitedly low level sarcastic quips. Hence, again maybe you should be searching why you made it a personal attack about you/things about you and ignored the actual rebuttals to your claims?? And... weirdly, you keep responding (to a blocked poster) with regard to being personally attacked. Again, your engagement was part of the previous discourse, yet you seem to find yourself the victim. Also the "life" you lead was never questioned, nor brought up, yet you continue to gaslight. Are you sure you're not a politician? Curious. PS- no one can "make you" feel like anything. That's on you, hence my post on seeking affirmation on an anonymous message board. PSS- I pointed out factual discrepancies, never spelling, etc. You chose to hide from the actuality of both of your assertions. In doing so you continued to engage. And, I may say in a similar "childlike" manner. |
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Post by Judge Smails on May 22, 2022 15:55:56 GMT -8
bennyshouse.com/post/274609/threadbennyshouse.com/post/274672/threadPost is about pitch count and its relevance not ruining every thread by attacking others. I was explaining why I was confused in the first place. I don't need sympathy, I have a killer life. George I get targeted cause I have a weird sense of humor, am a nerd, don't back down to bully's and have things about me that are easy to go after. Maybe you should wonder why you are a bully seeking the easiest and shallowest esteem points on the planet, making other people feel like s%#t. I'm off to enjoy my life on a beautiful day and listen to the softball team. Enjoy picking apart my life you know nothing about while you get a boner that I responded to you through a third party post. =) #serialkillerlife Dude, if you can’t take a little s%#t, don’t hang out on message boards. Lighten up! PS- here’s why total pitch counts are stupid. College teams have a lot bigger rosters than MLB teams. You can throw 5-6 guys a game and still have enough arms to go the next day. |
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jimbeav
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Post by jimbeav on May 22, 2022 16:50:07 GMT -8
here’s why total pitch counts are stupid. College teams have a lot bigger rosters than MLB teams. You can throw 5-6 guys a game and still have enough arms to go the next day. Big disagree. Pitch counts are HUGE in college ball. At this level, those huge rosters with 5 or 6 arms are mostly chumps once you get past the starters and first couple of quality pen guys. A big part of winning college baseball games is getting to the pen as soon as you can. Casey was a big believer in this, and coached his hitters to go deep into the count for precisely this reason. For years I've watched OSU batters take that first pitch strike right down the middle. At first it was maddening, but over the years I've seen how much easier it is to score runs after you chase the starter... |
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