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Post by chinmusic on May 21, 2022 16:14:08 GMT -8
In light of the Back-2-Back series losses to Arizona and UCLA, where will the pollsters at D!, BA, PG and the Coaches rank us? Stanford's crowning as PAC-12 champion along with a blistering 12 game winning streak might move them in front of us at #3. The Cardinal has scored 140 runs over the the last 13 games (10.8/ game). They finished their regular season at 37-14.
A likely bump to #2 behind Tennessee will be Virginia Tech. The Hokies are streaking, winning 7 of their last 8 in the ACC. They are 41-11 on the season.
Today's convincing win over the pesky Bruins stopped the bleeding and hopefully will weigh something with the poll folks. Frankly, I'm not sure what to expect.
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Post by ricke71 on May 21, 2022 17:49:26 GMT -8
Possibly slip to 4th.....But it matters little. RPI will still be #2.
Potential host teams (top 16 placement)...[or nearly so], that soared (3-0), or flopped (0-3), this weekend:
Maryland 3-0
Virginia Tech 3-0
Stanford 3-0
Vandy 0-3
Dallas Baptist 0-2-1
Florida State 0-3
....also UO Ducks, now riding a 5-game winning streak, and at RPI #18.
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Post by beavs6 on May 21, 2022 18:16:30 GMT -8
I can see anywhere from #4-#7 in the rankings. I also think we are in line for the same type of # for a National Seed…maybe #6 or #7.
Just need to win a couple of games next week!
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Post by tamatrix on May 21, 2022 19:45:58 GMT -8
D1 Baseball guys doing a field of 64 tomorrow, not sure if they'll put it out tomorrow night or Monday but will be interesting to see.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 21, 2022 21:11:31 GMT -8
You could make an argument that Oregon State can be ranked anywhere from about two to about eight. I am curious as to what D1 Baseball does with Oregon State. It would be nice if the Beavers put together a couple of quality wins in Scottsdale to help solidify a top eight seed.
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Post by beavermd on May 21, 2022 21:21:22 GMT -8
I can see anywhere from #4-#7 in the rankings. I also think we are in line for the same type of # for a National Seed…maybe #6 or #7. Just need to win a couple of games next week! 40 wins and being 2nd in RPI will garner a top 4 national seed. |
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Post by beavermd on May 21, 2022 21:22:28 GMT -8
You could make an argument that Oregon State can be ranked anywhere from about two to about eight. I am curious as to what D1 Baseball does with Oregon State. It would be nice if the Beavers put together a couple of quality wins in Scottsdale to help solidify a top eight seed. It’s already been solidified. Beavs will be a top 8 seed. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 21, 2022 22:53:00 GMT -8
You could make an argument that Oregon State can be ranked anywhere from about two to about eight. I am curious as to what D1 Baseball does with Oregon State. It would be nice if the Beavers put together a couple of quality wins in Scottsdale to help solidify a top eight seed. It’s already been solidified. Beavs will be a top 8 seed. A top two RPI finish usually nets you a top 5 overall seed. 2004 Texas was the #1 National Seed and lost the final game in the Championship Series to Fullerton by a run. 2005 Texas finished the season going 1-2 in Lawrence against Kansas, which finished #7 in the Big 12, and 2-1 against Texas A&M, which finished #9 in the Big 12. Texas' 3-3 finish dropped the Horns to third in the Big 12. The Longhorns finished 43-12 overall, 1.5 games better than 41-13 Oregon State this year. Entering the 2005 Big 12 Tournament, Texas' RPI was #2 with a better RPI than Oregon State. In the Big 12 Tournament opener, Texas got upset by #6 Oklahoma State (RPI 52) but rebounded to crush #7 Kansas (RPI 87) and Oklahoma State in the losers' bracket. In the semifinal game against #2 Baylor (RPI 8), Texas lost by a run. Going 2-2 against RPIs 52, 87, 52 and 8 decreased Texas' RPI. That slate with a better RPI was not enough for Texas to hold off #3 RPI Tulane or #5 RPI Georgia Tech, which each won their conference tournaments to pass Texas. 45-14 Texas with an RPI of four was allowed to host but was not given a top-eight seed. The Austin Regional was matched up against the Oxford Regional. Mississippi with the best RPI in Division 1 was given the #5 overall seed. Mississippi had lost the SEC Championship Game to Mississippi State, which ensured that Mississippi's RPI would not fall below three. 2021 Oregon State lost the Fort Worth Regional, not the National Championship Series, like 2004 Texas. 2022 Oregon State has a worse overall record and a worse RPI than 2005 Texas. The 2022 Beavers will not play a team with an RPI of eight on their side of the Pac-12 Tournament bracket. 2022 Oregon State will not open with a team with an RPI of 52 or better and will not play a team with an RPI of 52 or better in the losers' bracket, unless UCLA also loses. Oregon State will not play a team as bad as 2005 Kansas but the other opponents will not be as highly-rated in RPI. And that is Texas going 2-2. Imagine 1-2 or 0-2! Yeah.........no. Absolutely nothing is guaranteed. Oregon State had a chance to basically clinch with another conference win, but without a Conference Championship of some kind to point to, the Committee can still force Oregon State to take a trip for a Super Regional. Having said all of that, just to complete the story, Texas lost to Arkansas 9-2 and had to come out of the losers' bracket to win the Austin Regional . Ole Miss won the opener in the Oxford Super Regional, but Texas won the next two (staving off five consecutive elimination games) to advance to Omaha. Texas got to get revenge on Baylor in the opener and #1 overall Tulane, who had passed Texas in RPI. Texas beat Baylor to advance to the Championship Series for the second year in a row. (Oregon State was on Texas' side of the bracket but went 2 & BBQ and didn't play Texas.) Texas beat a tired Florida in the Championship Series to win a National Championship. Champions find ways to win, but the Horns did not make it easy on themselves in the Big 12 Tournament or the Austin Regional. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 22, 2022 8:42:41 GMT -8
Looking at past results, it is entirely possible that any team in the top nine, which wins its tournament can pass an Oregon State that only wins two games in the Pac-12 Tournament.
And that is ignoring things like opponents' opponents losing, which would help bridge the gap between teams ranked 3-9 in RPI and Oregon State.
We should have a clearer idea of what Oregon State needs to do tomorrow.
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Post by ricke71 on May 22, 2022 9:18:58 GMT -8
Looking at past results, it is entirely possible that any team in the top nine, which wins its tournament can pass an Oregon State that only wins two games in the Pac-12 Tournament. And that is ignoring things like opponents' opponents losing, which would help bridge the gap between teams ranked 3-9 in RPI and Oregon State. We should have a clearer idea of what Oregon State needs to do tomorrow. The possibility of one or more of the top nine teams (or more specifically, RPI teams 3 through 9) to win their tournament and 'trigger' a passing of OSU has several caveats: 3 of those teams are ACC (VA Tech, Miami, Louisville), and obviously at least two of them will not win their conference tournament. 2 of those teams are SEC (Vandy & Auburn), and obviously at least one of them will not win their conference tournament. Besides which Vandy was swept this weekend (and are now sub .500 in conference), and Auburn lost 2 of 3 this weekend. Despite SEC tourney results, Vandy will not be a National Seed. If OSU takes care of just a little bit of business, like 2-2, in Scottsdale, it would give them a 43-15 record. In that case, they may not be a #2 seed, but it's hard to see them slipping to a 9 through 16 seed. |
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Post by beavs6 on May 22, 2022 10:39:24 GMT -8
I think, barring an OSU PAC12 Tourney championship, Stanford will jump OSU in the National Seeding. Maybe VATech too. That puts OSU around a #4 Seeding. Throw in a couple other “East Coast Bias” rankings is why I see OSU maybe #6 or #7.(plus I like 6 or 7 more than 4 or 5 to be on the other side of the bracket from TN. Also, the committee has show in the past they like to load PAC12 teams on 1 side to knock each other out before the championship. Make Stanford a #3 and OSU a #6 or #7 and they are on the same side of the bracket)
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Post by flyfishinbeav on May 22, 2022 20:07:56 GMT -8
I think, barring an OSU PAC12 Tourney championship, Stanford will jump OSU in the National Seeding. Maybe VATech too. That puts OSU around a #4 Seeding. Throw in a couple other “East Coast Bias” rankings is why I see OSU maybe #6 or #7.(plus I like 6 or 7 more than 4 or 5 to be on the other side of the bracket from TN. Also, the committee has show in the past they like to load PAC12 teams on 1 side to knock each other out before the championship. Make Stanford a #3 and OSU a #6 or #7 and they are on the same side of the bracket) How will the CWS bracket work? Isn't it even one side odd the other? So and even seed would put us on the other side from TEN? |
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Post by bvrfans5 on May 22, 2022 20:42:08 GMT -8
I think, barring an OSU PAC12 Tourney championship, Stanford will jump OSU in the National Seeding. Maybe VATech too. That puts OSU around a #4 Seeding. Throw in a couple other “East Coast Bias” rankings is why I see OSU maybe #6 or #7.(plus I like 6 or 7 more than 4 or 5 to be on the other side of the bracket from TN. Also, the committee has show in the past they like to load PAC12 teams on 1 side to knock each other out before the championship. Make Stanford a #3 and OSU a #6 or #7 and they are on the same side of the bracket) How will the CWS bracket work? Isn't it even one side odd the other? So and even seed would put us on the other side from TEN? No it feeds in like any seeded bracket would. Think march madness seeding with all the higher seeds winning in round one. 1,4,5,8 seeds (or the winner of those supers) will be on one side with opening games being 1v8 and 4v5. The other side will be reps from the winners of supers where the 2,3,6, and 7 seeds originated. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 22, 2022 22:11:57 GMT -8
Looking at past results, it is entirely possible that any team in the top nine, which wins its tournament can pass an Oregon State that only wins two games in the Pac-12 Tournament. And that is ignoring things like opponents' opponents losing, which would help bridge the gap between teams ranked 3-9 in RPI and Oregon State. We should have a clearer idea of what Oregon State needs to do tomorrow. The possibility of one or more of the top nine teams (or more specifically, RPI teams 3 through 9) to win their tournament and 'trigger' a passing of OSU has several caveats: 3 of those teams are ACC (VA Tech, Miami, Louisville), and obviously at least two of them will not win their conference tournament. 2 of those teams are SEC (Vandy & Auburn), and obviously at least one of them will not win their conference tournament. Besides which Vandy was swept this weekend (and are now sub .500 in conference), and Auburn lost 2 of 3 this weekend. Despite SEC tourney results, Vandy will not be a National Seed. If OSU takes care of just a little bit of business, like 2-2, in Scottsdale, it would give them a 43-15 record. In that case, they may not be a #2 seed, but it's hard to see them slipping to a 9 through 16 seed. 2005 Texas. #4 final RPI and #2 RPI heading into the Conference Tournaments is no guarantee of a 1-8 seed. Texas was passed by Conference USA Regular Season Champion and Tournament Co-Champion Tulane. The Conference USA Championship Game was actually cancelled because of thunderstorms and hail in Mississippi, but Tulane went a perfect 3-0. Texas was also passed by Georgia Tech. The Rambling Wreck won the ACC Regular Season and Tournament Championship. Texas was also passed by Nebraska. The Cornhuskers won the Regular Season and Tournament Championship in the Big 12. Nebraska had an RPI of 22 before the Conference Tournaments started. Texas was also passed by Baylor. The Bears won the Regular Season Co-Championship and lost the Big 12 Championship Game to Nebraska. Ole Miss was #1 overall in RPI. Ole Miss finished tied for the SEC West Division Championship but lost the tiebreaker to LSU. Because one game between Mississippi State and Tennessee was rained out, the Vols wound up a 1/2 game ahead of the Rebels in the final standings and were awarded the #3 SEC seed. Ole Miss was awarded the #4 seed. Ole Miss lost the SEC Championship Game to #7 Mississippi State 4-1. The Rebels finished 4-2 in the SEC Tournament and maintained the #1 overall RPI. Cal State Fullerton entered the final regular season weekend as the #1 overall team but with an RPI of 11. Fullerton only won one against UC Riverside in the final weekend, falling to an RPI of 14. However, Cal State Fullerton was awarded a National Seed instead of Texas. Florida were the SEC Regular Season Champions but only went 1-2 against Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament. Florida entered the SEC Tournament with a #4 RPI. Florida beat Arkansas (RPI 16) and then went 1-2 against Ole Miss (RPI 1). The four games dropped Florida from #4 RPI to #5 RPI. Nevertheless, the Committee awarded Florida a National Seed over Texas. Oregon State took the weekend off entirely. College of Charleston, which lost the Southern Conference Semifinal, and North Carolina, which lost to Florida State (RPI 27) and Wake Forest (RPI 71) to go 2 & BBQ in the ACC Tournament fell behind Oregon State in RPI. The Beavers were awarded the #8 overall seed with an RPI of 11. I do not think that it is unheard of for Oregon State to be given a 9-16 seed, if the Beavers go 2-2 at the Pac-12 Tournament. Especially, if it goes something like loss to Washington, win against Cal, win against Washington and loss to UCLA. That could potentially really hurt RPI. We should have a better idea about all of that on Tuesday. Three wins should be a clincher. Two? You never know. Finally, Oregon State's RPI actually fell on the day, because Long Beach State and Portland both lost today. |
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