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Post by obf on May 11, 2022 15:03:02 GMT -8
Concerning LOB, not much of a factor from here on. Simply because postseason teams don't give out the # of free passes as we've been seeing. We just saw a postseason team in the *ucks that gave out a bazillion walks... It makes people frustrated and annoyed, and it makes Mike Parker cry himself to sleep, but without fail... More LOB == More Runs. Baseball is a game of attrition. More men on base, more hits, etc. equals a higher chance to score, but ALSO equals a higher chance to leave men on. You CAN'T have one without the other, it is a tautology. Left on base and runs scored are literally synonyms. The faster you fully get that point as a baseball fan the sooner you will decrease you frustration at baseball games. LOB are a GOOD thing. Unless you are a total TTO team, the only way to actually score IS TO HAVE LOB. IOW, unless you are only going to score when homeruns are hit, then LOB WILL BE an integral part of scoring a run. The other way to view this is from the pitchers perspective. LOB% (left on base percentage) or the percentage of runners that a pitcher strands, tends to regress to the mean (70-72%, at least in the mlb), similar to BABIP, pitchers tend to not have that much control (and vice versa the batter) once the ball is put into play. Thus only low walk high K guys tend to be able to deviate from the mean by much at all (occasionally heavy sinker, groundball guys can be escape artists too). The fact that the Beavs have very good plate discipline and hit lots of line drives would lead me to believe that they probably have a better than average LOB%. |
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Post by rgeorge on May 11, 2022 15:25:03 GMT -8
Concerning LOB, not much of a factor from here on. Simply because postseason teams don't give out the # of free passes as we've been seeing. We just saw a postseason team in the *ucks that gave out a bazillion walks... It makes people frustrated and annoyed, and it makes Mike Parker cry himself to sleep, but without fail... More LOB == More Runs. Baseball is a game of attrition. More men on base, more hits, etc. equals a higher chance to score, but ALSO equals a higher chance to leave men on. You CAN'T have one without the other, it is a tautology. Left on base and runs scored are literally synonyms. The faster you fully get that point as a baseball fan the sooner you will decrease you frustration at baseball games. LOB are a GOOD thing. Unless you are a total TTO team, the only way to actually score IS TO HAVE LOB. IOW, unless you are only going to score when homeruns are hit, then LOB WILL BE an integral part of scoring a run. The point isn't "one without the other". Or that LOB isn't a "good thing". Leaving multiple runners per multiple innings per game isn't good baseball. And, it will come back to haunt some teams. High #s of LOB doesn't necessarily lead to a big scoring game. Averaging a season's worth of runs to LOB is not an accurate statistic. As an individual statistic it's often used to measure the success of a hitter. Again not valid in many respects. But, there have been many studies that have looked at LOB, runs scored, winning and losing. They found team LOB positively correlates only very-weakly to the amount of runs a team scores, and not at all to winning or losing. Based on data, team LOB has no correlation to whether a team wins or loses or how many runs it scores. Although often used as an excuse in a loss. Here's one I found quite a while back, feel free to find others. It's the internet so you can definitely find both view points. www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/by-the-numbers-leave-behind-the-left-on-base-lob-statistic/Another easy way... look at MLB stats. You'll often see teams with high LOB not score a ton. I believe the Washington club was 1st in LOB, but below MLB average in runs scored per game, 16th. The Pirates last in runs, 6th in LOB. |
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Post by irimi on May 11, 2022 15:46:16 GMT -8
Very pleased with the defense and pitching but we are leaving way, way, way too many runners on base. At sometime that's gonna bite us in the arse. Or not. |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 11, 2022 16:40:32 GMT -8
As of May 11, the Beavers have left a total of 432 runners on base thru 48 games. The opposition has only left 312. The Beavers have scored 369 runs, the opposition 174 runs. Thus, the Beavers are averaging 1.17 runners left for every run scored. Meanwhile, the opposition leaves 1.79 for every run scored. It only seems like the Beavers are leaving so many runners on base, because the Beavers are getting so many runners on base. Whereas the opposition, has had to work ever harder to score runs (moving station to station), and thus leaving more runners on base per run scored in comparison, whenever they do get on base. And a lot of times, its probably where they get a runner on first with one or two outs, and they're just stranded. Sure, that per game average of 9 LOB for OSU looks bad compared to the 6.5 LOB for the opposition thus far, but you can't score if you can't get on. Where did you get LOB data?!?! |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 11, 2022 16:44:13 GMT -8
We just saw a postseason team in the *ucks that gave out a bazillion walks... It makes people frustrated and annoyed, and it makes Mike Parker cry himself to sleep, but without fail... More LOB == More Runs. Baseball is a game of attrition. More men on base, more hits, etc. equals a higher chance to score, but ALSO equals a higher chance to leave men on. You CAN'T have one without the other, it is a tautology. Left on base and runs scored are literally synonyms. The faster you fully get that point as a baseball fan the sooner you will decrease you frustration at baseball games. LOB are a GOOD thing. Unless you are a total TTO team, the only way to actually score IS TO HAVE LOB. IOW, unless you are only going to score when homeruns are hit, then LOB WILL BE an integral part of scoring a run. The point isn't "one without the other". Or that LOB isn't a "good thing". Leaving multiple runners per multiple innings per game isn't good baseball. And, it will come back to haunt some teams. High #s of LOB doesn't necessarily lead to a big scoring game. Averaging a season's worth of runs to LOB is not an accurate statistic. As an individual statistic it's often used to measure the success of a hitter. Again not valid in many respects. But, there have been many studies that have looked at LOB, runs scored, winning and losing. They found team LOB positively correlates only very-weakly to the amount of runs a team scores, and not at all to winning or losing. Based on data, team LOB has no correlation to whether a team wins or loses or how many runs it scores. Although often used as an excuse in a loss. Here's one I found quite a while back, feel free to find others. It's the internet so you can definitely find both view points. www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/by-the-numbers-leave-behind-the-left-on-base-lob-statistic/Another easy way... look at MLB stats. You'll often see teams with high LOB not score a ton. I believe the Washington club was 1st in LOB, but below MLB average in runs scored per game, 16th. The Pirates last in runs, 6th in LOB. I think Messi had the right idea with LOB/run but it really takes understanding of each club vs some general stat to mean anything. We score lots of runs, I like that |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 11, 2022 16:45:44 GMT -8
LOB is better that not on base Steriod fest Gorilla hall with heavy metal bats disagree. Bring in the exit velocity and solo shhoootttsss!!! |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 11, 2022 21:36:01 GMT -8
Very pleased with the defense and pitching but we are leaving way, way, way too many runners on base. At sometime that's gonna bite us in the arse. Oregon State had 16 LOB in the last two games. Oregon State had 21 LOB in the two games against LSU in the 2018 Corvallis Regional. 17 LOB in the two games against Minnesota at the 2018 Corvallis Super Regional. 16 LOB in the two wins against Arkansas in 2018. Oregon State had 26 LOB in the last three games. In 2018, Oregon State had 28 LOB in the Corvallis Regional. Oregon State had 26 LOB in the three consecutive games against Washington, North Carolina and Mississippi State in Omaha. Oregon State had 43 LOB in the last five games. In 2018, Oregon State had 45 LOB in the Corvallis Regional and Super Regional. In the 2018 postseason, Oregon State had more LOB in 7 of the 13 games with one game finishing tied. Notably, North Carolina and Arkansas each had more LOB in the two Oregon State losses. The tie was game two against Arkansas. The only other games were game one against Minnesota, an 8-1 Oregon State win; game two against North Carolina, an 11-6 Oregon State win; and game two against Mississippi State, a 5-2 Oregon State win. Minnesota and Mississippi State were each tied, heading into the ninth inning. And North Carolina and Oregon State were tied heading into the bottom of the ninth. Of all 13 games, the only time that a team could have arguably lost the game by leaving too many LOB was the Mississippi State game. The Bulldogs left runners on third in the third, fifth and sixth and bases loaded in the ninth. Oregon State stranded two runners in scoring position with no outs in the second and Gretler stranded Rutschman at first in the fifth. You will be happy to know that the final 10 Beavers were retired in order, so Oregon State did not strand anyone in the seventh, eighth or ninth. LOB is often a very misused statistic. |
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Post by abureid on May 12, 2022 4:43:54 GMT -8
LOB is better that not on base The KISS principle |
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Post by messi on May 12, 2022 6:07:15 GMT -8
As of May 11, the Beavers have left a total of 432 runners on base thru 48 games. The opposition has only left 312. The Beavers have scored 369 runs, the opposition 174 runs. Thus, the Beavers are averaging 1.17 runners left for every run scored. Meanwhile, the opposition leaves 1.79 for every run scored. It only seems like the Beavers are leaving so many runners on base, because the Beavers are getting so many runners on base. Whereas the opposition, has had to work ever harder to score runs (moving station to station), and thus leaving more runners on base per run scored in comparison, whenever they do get on base. And a lot of times, its probably where they get a runner on first with one or two outs, and they're just stranded. Sure, that per game average of 9 LOB for OSU looks bad compared to the 6.5 LOB for the opposition thus far, but you can't score if you can't get on. Where did you get LOB data?!?! I got it from the pdf stat page on the team's section at osubeavers.com. Its below the first section that goes over the team's offensive stats. LOB: Team (432), Opp (312). |
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Post by nuclearbeaver on May 12, 2022 6:12:49 GMT -8
Where did you get LOB data?!?! I got it from the pdf stat page on the team's section at osubeavers.com. Its below the first section that goes over the team's offensive stats. LOB: Team (432), Opp (312). of course, the one place I didn’t bother looking |
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