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Post by 411500 on Mar 5, 2022 9:57:27 GMT -8
OSU WBB in 2022/23
Several members on this board have been around a long time, faithfully following the Beavs since Ralph Miller arrived – and even before. Several are coaches from time past, and a few from time present. So, all in all, there’s quite a bit of basketball savvy on this board.
What I’m going to do here is try to put forth a few ideas about what I think needs to happen for the Beavs to look a lot better in 2022/23.
I’m not an expert. Don’t pretend to be. But this is what I’m thinking about our basketball team right now.
First, Rueck is a good coach by just about every measure I can think of. He has his own proven style, and his own philosophy of how to transact his vision of the game. He understands it, he adheres to it, and he demands that everyone around him do the same.
Rueck is a decent guy with a strong moral compass. He recruits well, and he is a very good in-game coach. I would guess there are not six coaches in America that OSU could hire who would make the program better than it has been the past 8 years.
So, coach-wise we’re in good shape.
As far as the players on the 2022/23 roster are concerned, the Beavs are in good, but not great, shape. To win a Pac-12 championship, or to finish in the top 3, you must have at least two All Pac-12 players in your line up. Right now the Beavs have one, and no one else is a close second - with the exception of Taylor Jones.
Aside from Talia & Taylor, the current roster has NO exceptional players by Pac-12 standards. If our talent level, and our player performance, remains constant the next two years, we have no chance of cracking the top three of the Pac.
The real question, at least to me, is whether we have players on the roster who have the ability to significantly improve their game enough to lift the Beavs into a Top Three contender.
We have three prime candidates to get this done: Greta, AJ & Kennedy.
The first is Greta – who from day one virtually everyone associated with Beaver basketball, from Rueck to the ordinary fan, has been over-estimating. She is the highest ranked recruit in OSU WBB history to play a full season, and I was among many who thought she could win Frosh of the Year in the Pac. That didn’t happen. Not even close.
Greta’s got the goods. She passes the eye test. She’s a worker, a team player, and she will crash thru a wall if coach asks her to. But when Coach claimed Greta was a mixture of Kat Tudor and Mik Pivec he did a disservice to her and to the OSU fan base.
Right now, after one full year, she can’t finish at the basket with consistency, and she can’t nail a 3 with consistency. These very significant shortcomings hurt the team’s success considerably this season. A great rookie season from Greta could easily have produced 3 or 4 more victories for the Beavs.
I still have faith in Greta even though she has shown only brief flashes of excellence this season. If she learns to finish at the basket, and if she becomes a low 40’s 3-point shooter, she is a Pac-12 All Star in the making.
AJ is next in line. There’s a lot to like about her game. She has length, speed, and athleticism. She can get vertical on a dime and she is the only player on the team who can. Her deficit is that she is not a good shooter and until she becomes one she is just another typical ASU or USC backcourt athlete. If she does up her shooting %, and learns to finish at the bucket, she will give the Beavs two players who can attack the paint. She could potentially become a Gabby-type player. A game changer.
As a coach, when I was game-planning against perimeter players I’d always ask the game Scout how often does he make two 3s in a row? That’s one of my criteria for how much to adjust to an outside shooter - will he hit 2 or 3 in a row if you don’t pressure him? To my memory, neither Greta nor AJ hit 2 consecutive 3s during the entire season. Not once.
In past years Kat, Mik, Destiny, Katie & Aleah would do it often enough that opposing coaches had to fear it. Not so with Greta & AJ - and until they shoot with consistency they will never be exceptional Pac-12 players and opposing coaches will not have to stretch their defense to stop them. However, IF they do, they are good enough in the rest of their game, athletic enough, and skilled enough to elevate the Beavs into a top-3 contender.
Kennedy Brown is the third player who has the potential to be better than good, but she has never put her entire package together. She is a premiere defender, but limited offensively. Like Greta and AJ, she has not developed a consistent shot. If she did, she could grow into an awesome talent. Unfortunately, the number of players who suddenly develop a good shot after 3 years in a program are rare. Very rare. With Kennedy, I’d say it’s not gonna happen.
To perform at a significantly higher level Kennedy desperately needs to increase her offensive rebounding, increase her put-backs and garbage points per game, and deliver muscle points in the paint. She’s got to produce points without being a shooter. It’s totally possible for a player with her size and agility. At 6’6, mobile with good hands, it’s totally reasonable to expect much greater productivity from her.
Bottom line: These three players need to make Big Time improvement in their point production if this team is going to win more games and defeat higher ranked teams. The team defense is solid.
If Greta, AJ and Kennedy each elevate their game to the level where they are genuine scoring threats, I believe the Beavs will climb back into the top 3 in the Pac. That’s what I’m hoping for.
If they don’t show essential improvement in their point production, when 2022/23 rolls around we’re going to see a lot more scores like the four that ended this season: 44–57, 59–54, 45–60, 58–70.
The collective improvement of Greta, AJ., and Kennedy will determine, in very great measure, our success in 22/23.
At least that’s how I see it.
GO BEAVS!!
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Post by greybeav on Mar 5, 2022 11:04:02 GMT -8
Dang, a lot of good reading there 41150, thanks for the time and effort. Now, may I suggest, that folks don't quote the whole thing to respond, or this thread will be several pages in no time and hard to read. Just a thought...
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Post by jegerklog on Mar 5, 2022 12:10:21 GMT -8
I coached boys high school basketball for a year, about 100 years ago. So I feel pretty qualified to critique the Beaver WBB team. Back in the those days, teams only ran a couple of plays and everyone had the same plays. A screen was something that kept bugs out of the gym. The most common play involved the center running into the paint to receive a pass and then two guards would criss-cross in front of the center who would secretly hand off to one of the guards (or the center could keep the ball). A play would be successful if none of the offensive players crashed into each other. I cannot remember if we ever scored with this heavily used play.
My team was relatively short except for one tall blond guy named Schulz. He had sort of a special problem in that he really did not like to be in a crowd with others banging into him. He refused to play under the basket and threatened to quit. We reached a compromise where he could shoot from the outside but had to be near the basket on defense. Nobody ever said anything to me directly, but I am sure they all thought I was a total idiot for positioning our only tall player on the outside when on offense.
I have extensive advice for CR and the WBB team but …..
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Post by skyrider on Mar 5, 2022 13:10:44 GMT -8
OSU WBB in 2022/23 Several members on this board have been around a long time, faithfully following the Beavs since Ralph Miller arrived – and even before. Several are coaches from time past, and a few from time present. So, all in all, there’s quite a bit of basketball savvy on this board. What I’m going to do here is try to put forth a few ideas about what I think needs to happen for the Beavs to look a lot better in 2022/23. I’m not an expert. Don’t pretend to be. But this is what I’m thinking about our basketball team right now. First, Rueck is a good coach by just about every measure I can think of. He has his own proven style, and his own philosophy of how to transact his vision of the game. He understands it, he adheres to it, and he demands that everyone around him do the same. Rueck is a decent guy with a strong moral compass. He recruits well, and he is a very good in-game coach. I would guess there are not six coaches in America that OSU could hire who would make the program better than it has been the past 8 years. So, coach-wise we’re in good shape. As far as the players on the 2022/23 roster are concerned, the Beavs are in good, but not great, shape. To win a Pac-12 championship, or to finish in the top 3, you must have at least two All Pac-12 players in your line up. Right now the Beavs have one, and no one else is a close second - with the exception of Taylor Jones. Aside from Talia & Taylor, the current roster has NO exceptional players by Pac-12 standards. If our talent level, and our player performance, remains constant the next two years, we have no chance of cracking the top three of the Pac. The real question, at least to me, is whether we have players on the roster who have the ability to significantly improve their game enough to lift the Beavs into a Top Three contender.We have three prime candidates to get this done: Greta, AJ & Kennedy. The first is Greta – who from day one virtually everyone associated with Beaver basketball, from Rueck to the ordinary fan, has been over-estimating. She is the highest ranked recruit in OSU WBB history to play a full season, and I was among many who thought she could win Frosh of the Year in the Pac. That didn’t happen. Not even close. Greta’s got the goods. She passes the eye test. She’s a worker, a team player, and she will crash thru a wall if coach asks her to. But when Coach claimed Greta was a mixture of Kat Tudor and Mik Pivec he did a disservice to her and to the OSU fan base. Right now, after one full year, she can’t finish at the basket with consistency, and she can’t nail a 3 with consistency. These very significant shortcomings hurt the team’s success considerably this season. A great rookie season from Greta could easily have produced 3 or 4 more victories for the Beavs. I still have faith in Greta even though she has shown only brief flashes of excellence this season. If she learns to finish at the basket, and if she becomes a low 40’s 3-point shooter, she is a Pac-12 All Star in the making. AJ is next in line. There’s a lot to like about her game. She has length, speed, and athleticism. She can get vertical on a dime and she is the only player on the team who can. Her deficit is that she is not a good shooter and until she becomes one she is just another typical ASU or USC backcourt athlete. If she does up her shooting %, and learns to finish at the bucket, she will give the Beavs two players who can attack the paint. She could potentially become a Gabby-type player. A game changer. As a coach, when I was game-planning against perimeter players I’d always ask the game Scout how often does he make two 3s in a row? That’s one of my criteria for how much to adjust to an outside shooter - will he hit 2 or 3 in a row if you don’t pressure him? To my memory, neither Greta nor AJ hit 2 consecutive 3s during the entire season. Not once. In past years Kat, Mik, Destiny, Katie & Aleah would do it often enough that opposing coaches had to fear it. Not so with Greta & AJ - and until they shoot with consistency they will never be exceptional Pac-12 players and opposing coaches will not have to stretch their defense to stop them. However, IF they do, they are good enough in the rest of their game, athletic enough, and skilled enough to elevate the Beavs into a top-3 contender. Kennedy Brown is the third player who has the potential to be better than good, but she has never put her entire package together. She is a premiere defender, but limited offensively. Like Greta and AJ, she has not developed a consistent shot. If she did, she could grow into an awesome talent. Unfortunately, the number of players who suddenly develop a good shot after 3 years in a program are rare. Very rare. With Kennedy, I’d say it’s not gonna happen. To perform at a significantly higher level Kennedy desperately needs to increase her offensive rebounding, increase her put-backs and garbage points per game, and deliver muscle points in the paint. She’s got to produce points without being a shooter. It’s totally possible for a player with her size and agility. At 6’6, mobile with good hands, it’s totally reasonable to expect much greater productivity from her. Bottom line: These three players need to make Big Time improvement in their point production if this team is going to win more games and defeat higher ranked teams. The team defense is solid. If Greta, AJ and Kennedy each elevate their game to the level where they are genuine scoring threats, I believe the Beavs will climb back into the top 3 in the Pac. That’s what I’m hoping for. If they don’t show essential improvement in their point production, when 2022/23 rolls around we’re going to see a lot more scores like the four that ended this season: 44–57, 59–54, 45–60, 58–70. The collective improvement of Greta, AJ., and Kennedy will determine, in very great measure, our success in 22/23. At least that’s how I see it. GO BEAVS!! Great insights! I believe as you are stating that the future depends on (a) how much individual effort specific players are willing to put out to improve their games and (b) the quality and availability of the coaching that is available to them. I now live in Spokane and have marveled at how individual players on the men's and women's teams at Gonzaga improve so dramatically year after year. We saw that with many of the Beavers (Goodman, Pivec, Gullich, Tudor, Hansen). Will we see it with the players you mentioned? It seems to me that Kennedy Brown is so good defensively and rebounding wise, that the potential has to be there for her to be a better shooter. Also for Jelena, if she becomes physically stronger so she can hold a post up position down low and learns to keep the ball up high (like Taylor Jones does), she can become a big time scorer for us. I just don't know what to say about Greta, A.J. and even Talia to some extent. Talia is a great basketball player but is not a great athlete. Quicker stronger players can make things difficult for her. Greta and A.J. are excellent athletes but at this point not great basketball players. Lots of questions with the elephant in the closet being whether Taylor Jones will even be able to play basketball again and if so how close to 100% will she be.
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Post by bvrbooster on Mar 5, 2022 21:51:31 GMT -8
Great job of taking greybeav's suggestion there, Skyrider, and not quoting 411's lengthy post in yours.
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Post by sparty on Mar 6, 2022 7:20:25 GMT -8
Are there any gym rats on the team willing to put in the extra time to improve? Sid and Mik were the best known gym rats and their played showed on the court. Usually coaches talk about these types of players and one good gym rat on the team will cause a couple other players to follow. Let's face it now days not everyone on the team has the same off court and off season commitments.
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Post by rmancarl on Mar 6, 2022 21:43:55 GMT -8
411500, all good thoughts. I've been taking a look back at the difference between 2012/2013 (Beavs 10-21) and 2013/2014 (Beavs 24-11) and I think there are a lot of similarities to the current team. The Beavs went from scoring 57.3 ppg in 2012/2013 to scoring 70.5 ppg in 2013/2014, to 72.8 ppg in 22014/2015. I'm not going to make this a long drawn out post, but although there was development from the freshman turned sophomores (Weisner, Hunter, Hamblin), the big difference was the addition of Wiese and Hanson. You touched on 2 current freshmen, and 1 sophomore, and I'll add one more, Jelena. The Beavs of 2013/2014 had one established junior, Ali Gibson, that group of freshman turned sophomores, and two freshman, Wiese and Hanson whom all played major roles on the team.
Here's the similarities: Both the 13/14 team and the current Beavs have/had at least one established starter (Gibson/Jones), one star freshman (Weisner/Von Oelhoffen) and a few other young freshmen (Hunter, Hamblin, Siegner/Greta, AJ, Jelena and add Kennedy) and both teams had a talented class coming in (Wiese, Hanson/Tamia, Raegan, Adlee, Lily). Sure, there are differences as well but my point would be, the current addition of the Beavs have a larger group (number wise) to draw from for the possibility of development (Greta, AJ, Jelena, Kennedy, Tamia, Adlee, Raegan, Lily). Perhaps none of those players will grow to be Hanson, Wiese, Hamblin, or Hunter, but chances are some of them will get close. (poster edit---Raegan is a stud) Besides all those mentioned, the Beavs have the additional opportunity to pick up a player from the transfer portal as well.
Some other notes on your comments: I've never been as high on Greta as most on this board were (I hope I'm wrong). I've never seen her as a Mik (rebounding) or as a Kat (3pt shooter). I've always thought she is more of a Katie Mac, although an all around better version of Katie. Someone who can be an enormous help to the team by doing a little bit of everything.
AJ's best attributes to the team may end up being defensively. I like her mid-range shot. I think she could improve her shooting, and offensive game, but one thing I do know, she has the length, speed, and jumping ability to be Sasha (lite) defensively.
Kennedy---this is going to sound strange, but it can't be disputed that Kennedy has not been a good shooter to date in her OSU career. Yet, most of the time, her shots don't seem like they are that far off. There has been some clunkers, but overall they don't seem to be bad shots. I think there is a chance that Kennedy becomes Marie (lite). Marie shot .485 from the field in 15/16, and .469 in 16/17 and then .652 in 17/18. Not many players have a jump in shooting percentage like that, but I think Kennedy has a real shot at dramatic improvement in her shot. If she could go from .407 this season to .500, or even better, what a difference that would make in her game.
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Post by 411500 on Mar 7, 2022 7:49:00 GMT -8
rmancarl - -great addition to this thread...
Thanks for doing your homework concerning shooting percentages and other particulars that I left vague.....
I really hope you are right about Kennedy's improvement in 22/23...
GO BEAVS!!
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Post by skyrider on Mar 7, 2022 9:17:25 GMT -8
The things that bother me most about Kennedy Brown's shooting are:
(1) When she is shooting in close to the basket (posting up/on a rebound/etc.) she seems to have no "touch" at all to the shots. Any body contact from opposing players at all and the ball seems to not be guided to the basket with any sort of shooting form but just thrown at the basket area.
My conclusion here would be that she lacks enough overall core body strength to keep her balance and position well enough to maintain the proper body and arm positioning for good shooting. What I do not understand is how she is so successful as a rebounder and excellent defender. You would think both those skills would require very good body strenth and coordination.
(2)As far as her mid range, and further shooting I have no idea why she is so inaccurate. Her form looks reasonably good. She is obviously someone who could only be helped by extensive "gym rat" shooting, assuming she is getting the proper coaching assistance to make all the work worthwhile.
It is frustrating to have a talented 6 foot 6" player who clearly is motivated and talented but has these major weaknesses.
Go Beavers!
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Post by bvrbooster on Mar 7, 2022 10:45:49 GMT -8
If you watch Kennedy in warmups, her shooting motion is slower and smoother, there's some arc on the ball, and a lot go in. During a game, the motion is more rushed and jerky, kind of like stabbing at a putt rather than following through, and the arc is lessened.
That's not unusual, but it drastically reduces accuracy in her case. She would be well served to practice like she plays and vice versa.
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Post by rgeorge on Mar 7, 2022 11:29:41 GMT -8
If you watch Kennedy in warmups, her shooting motion is slower and smoother, there's some arc on the ball, and a lot go in. During a game, the motion is more rushed and jerky, kind of like stabbing at a putt rather than following through, and the arc is lessened. That's not unusual, but it drastically reduces accuracy in her case. She would be well served to practice like she plays and vice versa. Again, overly simplistic and I have never been at a practice or watched KB workout. But, she reminds me of a couple players I coached in the past. She has all the physical tools and you are surprised at the lack of efficiency and success at times. But, to me it appears she lacks confidence, has some self doubt that overrides the rest. She often hesitates, "analyzes', and does not play with raw instincts. At times her passes and shots are quick and fluid. Other times they are mechanical and "stiff". When she hesitates, even on some FTs you can see her eyes trail the ball flight, not the rim. Players who watch the ball are "worried" about outcomes versus the instinctual process. It may have started with coming off a severe injury. Players are often very hesitant and aware of their surroundings more than just feeling the game and playing on basketball instinct. She has the tools, but I believe right now she is "in her own head". |
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Post by rmancarl on Mar 7, 2022 15:03:33 GMT -8
411500, I remembered that AJ led the Pac-12 in 3pt percentage for a while this year, so I took a look at some of the early games. AJ had a 3-3 game against Loyla Marymount, and was 4-6 in 3's against CSU Bakersfield. Unfortunately, her early season 3pt percentage, which was well over .700 at one point, dropped all the way down to .304 currently, which shows what you were talking about.
Greta had some good 3pt shooting games as well, going 3-5 against CSU Bakersfield, and 7-11, yes you read that right, 7-11 from 3 in the two games in Hawaii. Both players had some good games early, but when it came to conference play, and when scoring was needed more because Taylor was out, they both averaged a point, or more, less per game than they had in non-conference games. If anything, some of their games early should give us some hope that they can produce in the future. One more note to add, Greta's two most productive conference games were against Stanford where she scored 12 in one game and 7 in another.
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Post by skyrider on Mar 7, 2022 16:06:14 GMT -8
If you watch Kennedy in warmups, her shooting motion is slower and smoother, there's some arc on the ball, and a lot go in. During a game, the motion is more rushed and jerky, kind of like stabbing at a putt rather than following through, and the arc is lessened. That's not unusual, but it drastically reduces accuracy in her case. She would be well served to practice like she plays and vice versa. Excellent observation-wish I would have said it so clearly! |
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Post by beaverstever on Mar 7, 2022 16:27:03 GMT -8
Great discussion! I do believe that all 3 CAN improve their shooting % significantly. I think Greta will just by not being a frosh; not so sure about AJ. I also have big concerns about Brown, but believe she can as well.
When I was a HS frosh, I was at Cascade Basketball Camp, and my HS coach had the legendary Barry Adams review my shot. I was crushed when his response ultimately was that I might develop into a good 'streak shooter'. I desperately wanted to be a 'pure' shooter. The reality was, I had a lot of physical development to go, and a lot more mental development for that to be the case. I was a lot like Greta and AJ - I probably hit 2 threes in a row maybe 4 times over the next 4 years. I really only experienced being in the 'flow' in two games my senior year.
However, when I went to OSU I spent a lot of time at Dixon on both the weights and probably 10 hours/week on the courts. A few years later I played in our HS alumni tourney, and people hardly recognized my shooting % from deep. I finally had the strength and practice time to shoot consistently, my physical development well out of the growth stage (most of my height growth was soph and jr years), and the physical strength/conditioning to have my shot not degrade over the game. It also helped that an alumni tournament was more casual in terms of the mental part of the game.
All 3 of these athletes are likely putting in the gym time; it would be hard not to as a D1 athlete. However, they may indeed not have built the leg and core strength needed to be consistent. And for sure, they have some work to go on their confidence.
I don't know if things will click for any of them, but I'm hopeful - I certainly believe it's possible for all 3. Brown certainly has the desire, and she might actually be trying too hard and/or and hasn't figured out yet how to slow the game down. She did manage to hit a game winner that could have easily been short-armed or put back too hard; I suspect it happened so fast she could only react in that situation. Hopefully she can find that zone more regularly.
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Post by jimbob on Mar 7, 2022 22:58:39 GMT -8
What I see with KB is a player that needs to spend the off-season putting up about 200 shots every other day working on a consistent arc with all of her shots and shooting about 70 from close range, 70 from mid-range, and 70 from 3 pt land in each of her sessions. Pretty much guarantee this will solve her shooting problems and make her into a wnba prospect. The question is does she have the desire to do the work to become a good shooter?....With her height and athleticism the sky is the limit for her.....but you have to put in the work!
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