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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Nov 29, 2021 13:14:34 GMT -8
IF there ever comes a time OSU is “afraid to play fresneck st” we all oughta hang up our shoulder pads. On the other hand, IF there ever comes a time that OSU fans are ever desirous to travel to Fresno, we ought to all collectively have our heads examined.
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Post by spudbeaver on Nov 29, 2021 14:35:56 GMT -8
What a bunch of candy asses! Afraid to play Fresno State? f%#* that! Let’s go kick the crap out of them! not afraid to play Fresno, afraid to leave the game and head for the parking lot after the game. If you’ve ever been to a game in Fresno you know what I mean Have and do.
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Post by vhalum92 on Nov 29, 2021 15:26:52 GMT -8
I'd really like to go to the Holliday Bowl but I just can't see them reaching past ASU or UCLA and then picking us when we are essentially tied with WSU, except for the head to head and WSU having more Pac wins.
So.... that puts us in a beauty contest with WSU for the Sun and the consolation is the LA.
This morning I realized if we go to LA, we can travel through Las Vegas. That made me smile
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Post by Judge Smails on Nov 29, 2021 15:37:15 GMT -8
I'd really like to go to the Holliday Bowl but I just can't see them reaching past ASU or UCLA and then picking us when we are essentially tied with WSU, except for the head to head and WSU having more Pac wins. So.... that puts us in a beauty contest with WSU for the Sun and the consolation is the LA. This morning I realized if we go to LA, we can travel through Las Vegas. That made me smile The Sun is the one that we cannot go to. They have to pick by conference record. We are Holiday, Vegas or LA. That's it.
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Post by vhalum92 on Nov 29, 2021 19:46:17 GMT -8
Thx for that tid bit on the Sun Bowl.
Well looks like LA it is. I dont see how being tied for 5th place we can pull off Vegas Bowl (3rd pick) or the Holiday (4th pick).
Maybe I will start booking flights.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Nov 29, 2021 20:28:03 GMT -8
I'd really like to go to the Holliday Bowl but I just can't see them reaching past ASU or UCLA and then picking us when we are essentially tied with WSU, except for the head to head and WSU having more Pac wins. So.... that puts us in a beauty contest with WSU for the Sun and the consolation is the LA. This morning I realized if we go to LA, we can travel through Las Vegas. That made me smile The Sun is the one that we cannot go to. They have to pick by conference record. We are Holiday, Vegas or LA. That's it. The Sun cannot pick us, unless it is down to Arizona State and Oregon State. Then, the Sun Bowl could invoke the no-repeat rule on the Devils and invite the Beavers. I keep hoping that some news is going to come out of Tempe out of the recruiting investigation or that Herm Edwards has decided to call it quits. I hear that Wazzu's AD is already stumping for the Cougars to be invited to the Alamo, Las Vegas or Sun Bowl. Hopefully, Barnes is stumping for the Beavs.
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Post by rgeorge on Nov 29, 2021 20:30:12 GMT -8
The Sun is the one that we cannot go to. They have to pick by conference record. We are Holiday, Vegas or LA. That's it. The Sun cannot pick us, unless it is down to Arizona State and Oregon State. Then, the Sun Bowl could invoke the no-repeat rule on the Devils and invite the Beavers. I keep hoping that some news is going to come out of Tempe out of the recruiting investigation or that Herm Edwards has decided to call it quits. I hear that Wazzu's AD is already stumping for the Cougars to be invited to the Alamo, Las Vegas or Sun Bowl. Hopefully, Barnes is stumping for the Beavs. Word is that Edwards will be retained. *Article below. Really very informal. Lots could change if NCAA levies big penalty. From earlier info this summer it seemed Edwards was toast?!
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Post by rgeorge on Nov 29, 2021 21:04:08 GMT -8
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Post by ee1990 on Nov 29, 2021 21:19:17 GMT -8
What are the payouts for all these bowls since the actual traditional pecking order seems to have been thrown away some time in the last couple of years? It used to be Rose, Alamo, Holiday, Sun, Vegas, Cheezit, etc. I guess the Vegas Bowl is now rebranding as a higher tier with the new stadium?
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Nov 29, 2021 23:20:46 GMT -8
Here's a more updated article with the Pac-12 bowl selection process that illustrates in a different way what Wilky said earlier. Basically states that Rose/Alamo are winner/loser of the championship game (if uo wins then Alamo HAS to select Utah, if Utah wins Alamo gets a pick but will 99.99% of the time take uo), Vegas and Holiday get picks 3 and 4 in that order and can take whoever of the four remaining bowl eligible teams (OSU, WSU, ASU, UCLA), Sun Bowl is 5th and has to take the highest ranked team left (no Sun Bowl for OSU as we finished 6th), LA bowl gets whatever team is left (likely OSU unless a surprise pick by LV or Holiday happens).
This writer's projection at the bottom of the article:
Given all that, here’s how I think it probably shakes out:
Rose: Utah/Oregon (by virtue of winning the Pac-12 Championship Game) Alamo: Utah/Oregon (either Utah by virtue of the selection rules or Oregon because the Ducks will be the only ranked remaining team) Las Vegas: UCLA (driving distance to Las Vegas, hasn’t been to a bowl since 2017, alllll those Los Angeles market eyeballs on the TV) Holiday: ASU (hasn’t been to the Holiday since 2013) Sun: WSU (highest remaining team) Los Angeles: OSU (sorry guys, you should have beaten the Ducks! Or the Cougs!)
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Post by jimbob on Nov 30, 2021 3:50:47 GMT -8
Nick Daschel's bowl predictions and other stuff:
By Nick Daschel | The Oregonian/OregonLive
Taking a deeper dive in Oregon State’s 38-29 loss to Oregon, plus a look toward the postseason, with seven takeaways:
Next up: Bowl game
With Oregon and the regular season in the rearview mirror, the Beavers’ attention turns to the bowl season for the first time since 2013. OSU is one of six Pac-12 Conference teams to qualify for a bowl. What bowl? We think it’s likely to be the LA Bowl on Dec. 18 at SoFi Stadium.
The Pac-12 bowl pecking order is Rose, Alamo, Holiday, Vegas, Sun, LA and ESPN pool. The last is out, since the conference doesn’t have seven bowl eligible teams. Bowls select based on conference record and a few rules.
Let’s assume that Utah (8-1) and Oregon (7-2) get the Rose and Alamo. The Utah-Oregon Pac-12 championship game winner is headed to the Rose, and the loser, in all likelihood, gets the Alamo. In fact, if Oregon wins, the Alamo is obligated to take Utah, as the Utes 8-1 record is two wins better than any team other than Oregon. If the Utes get roses, it’s hard to imagine the Alamo not scooping up the Ducks.
That leaves Arizona State (6-3), UCLA (6-3), Washington State (6-3) and Oregon State (5-4). Vegas picks next, and must take the best available team within one win. Which in this case means any eligible team, including OSU. The Beavers could be the Vegas’ selection, if it feels the pent-up ticket demand from the OSU fan base trumps the remaining three schools. But Oregon State doesn’t offer much of a TV market, particularly with UCLA in the mix. Arizona State and UCLA have advantages because many of their fans can drive to the bowl site.
After that is the Holiday, and it has the same selection criteria: best available team within one win. Oregon State could be Holiday-bound, too. What’s not open to the Beavers is the Sun Bowl. It must take the best available team, period. There will be a 6-3 team available. That team is headed to the Sun.
Which leaves the LA Bowl. If the 6-3 teams go to Vegas, Holiday and Sun, Oregon State is headed to SoFi Stadium to play the Mountain West champ, either San Diego State or Utah State.
If we’re assigning odds, let’s say 80 percent chance to LA, and 20 percent either Holiday or Vegas.
2. Oregon State not Utah Lite
Turns out Oregon figured out how to stop, or at least slow down, an offense that uses multiple tight ends. After Utah worked over the Ducks by mashing Oregon with myriad power sets, Oregon State couldn’t do the same. The Beavers ran out as many as four tight ends, but managed only 85 rushing yards, the lowest total since the Sept. 4 season opener at Purdue.
As much as the defense was blamed for Saturday’s loss, the lack of a running game was equally at fault. Had OSU effectively run the ball, it could have kept the Beavers’ defense on the sideline and traded points with the Ducks. Instead, Oregon made OSU one-dimensional, as Chance Nolan was forced to throw a season-high 39 times. The Beavers aren’t currently built to win through the air. When OSU throws more than 20 to 25 times, it’s out of desperation. When the Beavers threw more than 25 passes in a game this season, they were 1-5.
Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith was asked last week if he’d like to be the first or second team approaching a defense with a similar strategy. He said second, because he has video. Turns out, so does the opposing defense, plus the experience of having gone through it. Much better to be the first, it seems.
3. B.J. Baylor is the champ, sort of
Baylor, a fifth-year junior running back, is the Pac-12 regular season rushing champion with 1,258 yards. But it comes with an asterisk, as postseason games count. Baylor will play in a bowl game, and the only players with the possibility of playing two more games are Oregon’s Travis Dye and Utah’s Tavion Thomas. Baylor currently leads UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet (1,137 yards), Dye (1,036), Arizona State’s Rachaad White (1,006) and Thomas (978). White has already said he’s skipping the bowl game to begin prep for the NFL draft.
If Baylor holds on, he’ll be the first OSU player to lead the conference in rushing since 2003, when Steven Jackson ran for 1,545 yards. Baylor had six 100-yard games in helping OSU lead the conference in rushing until the final week of the season.
4. What happened to dual threat Chance Nolan?
When Nolan signed at Oregon State prior to the 2020 season, it marked a new era for Beaver quarterbacks. Nolan was clearly a dual threat quarterback coming to a program that thrives with pro-style, stay-in-the-pocket quarterbacks. While no one expected OSU to sudden go RPO crazy with Nolan, there was thinking he might give the Beavers offense a new look. Turns out, not so much. Nolan ran twice against Oregon and only one was a planned run. Two weeks earlier against Stanford, Nolan had no designed runs. Nolan has cut loose a few times this season – 10 runs against Colorado, nine against Washington – but often, he’s playing OSU’s usual role of pro-style quarterback.
You wonder: does the coaching staff have little confidence in the backups, in case Nolan gets hurt? Or is running the quarterback on a regular basis just not in the Beavers’ DNA? It’ll be interesting to monitor moving forward to 2022, when OSU’s quarterback room gets much deeper. Tristan Gebbia and Ben Gulbranson presumably will return to full health, and Sam Vidlak will have a year of experience in the system.
5. Is Trent Bray the long-term solution as defensive coordinator?
Beaver fans were all but ready to give Bray the permanent job after OSU turned in stellar defensive performances against Stanford and Arizona State. But, as it turns out, that was a bit of fool’s gold as the Cardinal and Sun Devils offenses have been hit hard with injuries. Oregon, with its speed and craftiness from a veteran quarterback, proved to be too much to handle, as the Ducks struck for 38 points and 506 yards.
That doesn’t mean Bray shouldn’t get the promotion from interim to permanent DC. It’s clear that Oregon State, while in much better position than it was two years ago, still lacks talent on the defensive side of the ball. A DC can only do so much with schemes. Under Bray, Oregon State performed better than it had in the weeks leading up to Tim Tibesar’s firing. It wouldn’t surprise if Smith makes Bray his man this week with signing day around the corner. It also wouldn’t be eye-opening if Smith took his time to see who’s available before making a permanent hire for 2022.
6. Beavers on the all-conference team
The Pac-12 unveils the 2021 all-conference football team on Tuesday, Dec. 7. It should be the best showing for an Oregon State team under Smith. Coaches have until Monday, Dec. 6 to cast their ballots. Here’s how we think the Beavers will fare:
First team: C Nathan Eldridge, OT Joshua Gray, RB B.J. Baylor, LB Avery Roberts
Second team: OT Brandon Kipper
Honorable mention: TE Teagan Quitoriano, RG Nous Keobounnam, WR Trevon Bradford, QB Chance Nolan, OLB Andrzej Hughes-Murray, ILB Omar Speights, CB Rejzohn Wright, DB Jaydon Grant, P Luke Loecher.
7. Beavers with eligibility to NFL Draft
Keep an eye out over the next 4-5 weeks for Oregon State players with eligibility announcing they’re leaving for the 2022 NFL Draft.
No one has yet to announce, but some certainly will. This year more than most, because of last year’s free year of eligibility. Linebacker Avery Roberts, for example, has played five years of college football and typically would be finished. But last year gave Roberts another year.
Here’s who we think could jump, with various degrees of probability:
For sure: Roberts
Good chance: Kipper, Wright, Baylor
Maybe: Quitoriano, Gray, Luke Musgrave
Outside: Grant
--Nick Daschel | ndaschel@oregonian.com | @nickdaschel
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Nov 30, 2021 13:20:26 GMT -8
Here's a more updated article with the Pac-12 bowl selection process that illustrates in a different way what Wilky said earlier. Basically states that Rose/Alamo are winner/loser of the championship game (if uo wins then Alamo HAS to select Utah, if Utah wins Alamo gets a pick but will 99.99% of the time take uo), Vegas and Holiday get picks 3 and 4 in that order and can take whoever of the four remaining bowl eligible teams (OSU, WSU, ASU, UCLA), Sun Bowl is 5th and has to take the highest ranked team left (no Sun Bowl for OSU as we finished 6th), LA bowl gets whatever team is left (likely OSU unless a surprise pick by LV or Holiday happens).
This writer's projection at the bottom of the article:
Given all that, here’s how I think it probably shakes out:
Rose: Utah/Oregon (by virtue of winning the Pac-12 Championship Game) Alamo: Utah/Oregon (either Utah by virtue of the selection rules or Oregon because the Ducks will be the only ranked remaining team) Las Vegas: UCLA (driving distance to Las Vegas, hasn’t been to a bowl since 2017, alllll those Los Angeles market eyeballs on the TV) Holiday: ASU (hasn’t been to the Holiday since 2013) Sun: WSU (highest remaining team) Los Angeles: OSU (sorry guys, you should have beaten the Ducks! Or the Cougs!)
Las Vegas Bowl: Nick Daschel has a good article about the Las Vegas Bowl's selection process. Apparently, the Las Vegas Bowl execs are meeting tonight to chat about preliminary scenarios. John Saccenti is the Las Vegas Bowl Executive Director. He indicated that the Pac-12 team chosen will be the best at the three T's: tickets, travel and television. The Las Vegas Bowl wants at least 20,000 fans to turn out for the game. And that is just as important as television ratings. The Las Vegas Bowl indicated that it is looking at Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue and Wisconsin as the Big Ten representative. If Purdue goes to the Las Vegas Bowl, Oregon State is almost immediately out of consideration. Oregon State's pros for the Las Vegas Bowl are that the Beavers traveled well for games in 2003 and 2009 and the eight-year bowl drought. Arizona State is looking less and less desirable, especially after Rachaad White announced that he will not play. #11 Arizona plays at Pauley Pavilion against #5 UCLA on December 30, 2021, which makes UCLA less desirable, because more sports fans will just stay home to watch Arizona-UCLA. Oregon State also has a home basketball game against Utah the same day. Arizona State also travels to USC, but, because it is a road game, it will probably impact fan travel less. Wazzu plays the night before at home against Washington. Wazzu has never played in the Las Vegas Bowl. Sun Bowl: Bernie Olivas is the Sun Bowl Executive Director. Olivas indicated that he believes that the Rose, Alamo, Las Vegas and Holiday Bowls are likely to take Arizona State, Oregon, UCLA and Utah. Olivas indicated that the requirement that he select only the Pac-12 team with the best conference record was a part of the 2019 contract. Olivas indicated that he could take Oregon State over Washington State, if it fell down to those two. Of note, the Sun Bowl is likely to get Boston College, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami and North Carolina from the ACC. The Sun Bowl has indicated that it would like Miami or North Carolina. They see Miami as more likely. North Carolina is likely to wind up in the Duke's Mayo Bowl in Charlotte. If it is Miami, there are some people who believe that Oregon State may be paired with the Hurricanes to avoid a 2015 Sun Bowl rematch. Otherwise, the pick is likely to be Wazzu. That is especially true, if the ACC selection is Louisville.
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Post by ochobeavo on Nov 30, 2021 15:04:07 GMT -8
Man it's sure nice to be looking at actual bowl scenarios in November.
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Post by vhalum92 on Nov 30, 2021 18:55:01 GMT -8
Wilky comes in with new information... I love it. Your saying we have a chance. I will make sure my hotels and tickets are refundable for now
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Post by pabeaver on Nov 30, 2021 19:38:18 GMT -8
Las Vegas Bowl: Nick Daschel has a good article about the Las Vegas Bowl's selection process. Apparently, the Las Vegas Bowl execs are meeting tonight to chat about preliminary scenarios. John Saccenti is the Las Vegas Bowl Executive Director. He indicated that the Pac-12 team chosen will be the best at the three T's: tickets, travel and television. The Las Vegas Bowl wants at least 20,000 fans to turn out for the game. And that is just as important as television ratings. That doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in us getting selected. We have the worst television ratings and off the top of my head I don’t think we’ve had 20,000 fans at any bowl game aside from the Fiesta, Alamo and Aloha #1 (maybe Insight #1?). For myself, I am definitely taking my family of 5 to Las Vegas or the Holidays Bowls if we are selected. LA, not so much
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