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Post by mbabeav on Aug 27, 2021 14:54:20 GMT -8
Might take a direct hit from big hurricane and mess up their stadium. Seriously, it is looking very scary for the New Orleans area right now. If you are within 100 miles of the coast, I'd be evacuating.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Aug 27, 2021 15:49:13 GMT -8
Might take a direct hit from big hurricane and mess up their stadium. Seriously, it is looking very scary for the New Orleans area right now. If you are within 100 miles of the coast, I'd be evacuating. It's still more than two days away, and there is a chance that it heads East or is eaten up by Cuba. I was going to ask, if they fixed that 23-foot issue (i.e. any storm that produces a storm surge of more than 23 feet overwhelms most levees) in the 16 years since Katrina. (Katrina produced a 28-foot surge.)
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Post by mbabeav on Aug 27, 2021 17:47:15 GMT -8
Might take a direct hit from big hurricane and mess up their stadium. Seriously, it is looking very scary for the New Orleans area right now. If you are within 100 miles of the coast, I'd be evacuating. It's still more than two days away, and there is a chance that it heads East or is eaten up by Cuba. I was going to ask, if they fixed that 23-foot issue (i.e. any storm that produces a storm surge of more than 23 feet overwhelms most levees) in the 16 years since Katrina. (Katrina produced a 28-foot surge.) They have pretty high confidence in their path forecast, intensity is always the question - but the cone of highest probability path leaves NO at high risk. Levees are supposed to be a lot better, but so were the original ones that Katrina took down, and it was a weaker storm than this is supposed to be as it hit Louisiana. At one time it was cat 5, but had weakened to cat 2-3. This may be a cat 4+ at land fall. Conditions are almost perfect for Ida to bomb in the gulf.
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Post by civiltiger on Sept 1, 2021 6:11:25 GMT -8
It's still more than two days away, and there is a chance that it heads East or is eaten up by Cuba. I was going to ask, if they fixed that 23-foot issue (i.e. any storm that produces a storm surge of more than 23 feet overwhelms most levees) in the 16 years since Katrina. (Katrina produced a 28-foot surge.) They have pretty high confidence in their path forecast, intensity is always the question - but the cone of highest probability path leaves NO at high risk. Levees are supposed to be a lot better, but so were the original ones that Katrina took down, and it was a weaker storm than this is supposed to be as it hit Louisiana. At one time it was cat 5, but had weakened to cat 2-3. This may be a cat 4+ at land fall. Conditions are almost perfect for Ida to bomb in the gulf. Barges hit the levees and caused breeches. If not for a couple barges the Katrina story would be significantly different. So much incorrect info in this thread its laughable. The 20+ foot storm surge was in Mississippi which was to the east of the storm eye. New Orleans saw 18-16ft surge and was to the west of the eye. New Orleans just got the pub because its a major city that flooded but the surge was significantly worse in Mississippi.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Sept 1, 2021 13:43:58 GMT -8
It's still more than two days away, and there is a chance that it heads East or is eaten up by Cuba. I was going to ask, if they fixed that 23-foot issue (i.e. any storm that produces a storm surge of more than 23 feet overwhelms most levees) in the 16 years since Katrina. (Katrina produced a 28-foot surge.) They have pretty high confidence in their path forecast, intensity is always the question - but the cone of highest probability path leaves NO at high risk. Levees are supposed to be a lot better, but so were the original ones that Katrina took down, and it was a weaker storm than this is supposed to be as it hit Louisiana. At one time it was cat 5, but had weakened to cat 2-3. This may be a cat 4+ at land fall. Conditions are almost perfect for Ida to bomb in the gulf. In the end, Ida was more intense but was not nearly as large as Katrina, so less of a storm surge.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Sept 1, 2021 14:03:00 GMT -8
They have pretty high confidence in their path forecast, intensity is always the question - but the cone of highest probability path leaves NO at high risk. Levees are supposed to be a lot better, but so were the original ones that Katrina took down, and it was a weaker storm than this is supposed to be as it hit Louisiana. At one time it was cat 5, but had weakened to cat 2-3. This may be a cat 4+ at land fall. Conditions are almost perfect for Ida to bomb in the gulf. Barges hit the levees and caused breeches. If not for a couple barges the Katrina story would be significantly different. So much incorrect info in this thread its laughable. The 20+ foot storm surge was in Mississippi which was to the east of the storm eye. New Orleans saw 18-16ft surge and was to the west of the eye. New Orleans just got the pub because its a major city that flooded but the surge was significantly worse in Mississippi. 18-20 feet in New Orleans? As I understand it, the upriver issues were a part of the issues downriver. But I would welcome additional information. ING 4727 (the barge) did end up in the Ninth Ward, but the Department of Defense, United States Army Corps of Engineers, State of Louisiana and University of California all came to the conclusion that ING 4727 wound up in the Ninth Ward, because it went over or through an existing breach in the Industrial Canal Floodwall and did not, in and of itself, cause the breach. The United States District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana has definitively determined that ING 4727 did not cause the breach to the Industrial Canal Floodwall. And that was a single breach! There were at least five other breaches in Orleans Parish alone and an additional 40+ breaches elsewhere in Louisiana and Mississippi.
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Post by ag87 on Sept 1, 2021 14:09:45 GMT -8
Barges hit the levees and caused breeches. If not for a couple barges the Katrina story would be significantly different. So much incorrect info in this thread its laughable. The 20+ foot storm surge was in Mississippi which was to the east of the storm eye. New Orleans saw 18-16ft surge and was to the west of the eye. New Orleans just got the pub because its a major city that flooded but the surge was significantly worse in Mississippi. 18-20 feet in New Orleans? As I understand it, the upriver issues were a part of the issues downriver. But I would welcome additional information. ING 4727 (the barge) did end up in the Ninth Ward, but the Department of Defense, United States Army Corps of Engineers, State of Louisiana and University of California all came to the conclusion that ING 4727 wound up in the Ninth Ward, because it went over or through an existing breach in the Industrial Canal Floodwall and did not, in and of itself, cause the breach. The United States District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana has definitively determined that ING 4727 did not cause the breach to the Industrial Canal Floodwall. And that was a single breach! There were at least five other breaches in Orleans Parish alone and an additional 40+ breaches elsewhere in Louisiana and Mississippi. Hey! Don't let facts get in the way of someone's fantasy.
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Post by civiltiger on Sept 1, 2021 17:45:07 GMT -8
18-20 feet in New Orleans? As I understand it, the upriver issues were a part of the issues downriver. But I would welcome additional information. ING 4727 (the barge) did end up in the Ninth Ward, but the Department of Defense, United States Army Corps of Engineers, State of Louisiana and University of California all came to the conclusion that ING 4727 wound up in the Ninth Ward, because it went over or through an existing breach in the Industrial Canal Floodwall and did not, in and of itself, cause the breach. The United States District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana has definitively determined that ING 4727 did not cause the breach to the Industrial Canal Floodwall. And that was a single breach! There were at least five other breaches in Orleans Parish alone and an additional 40+ breaches elsewhere in Louisiana and Mississippi. Hey! Don't let facts get in the way of someone's fantasy. All it takes is a little internet search and you will find New Orleans did not get 28ft of storm surge during Katrina, but hey don’t let facts get in the way of your ignorance.
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Post by spudbeaver on Sept 1, 2021 18:38:38 GMT -8
Hey! Don't let facts get in the way of someone's fantasy. All it takes is a little internet search and you will find New Orleans did not get 28ft of storm surge during Katrina, but hey don’t let facts get in the way of your ignorance. That’s what we do around here.
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Post by ag87 on Sept 1, 2021 21:29:34 GMT -8
Civiltiger says "Barges hit the levees and caused breeches. If not for a couple barges the Katrina story would be significantly different." ag87 makes snide comment about not letting facts get in the way of fantasy. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ING_4727 I cant vouch for the accuracy of the wiki article but it does say, "Many locals blame the barge for the catastrophic inundation of the area. Some lawyers have blamed the barge, including its owners and the cement terminal that had moored the barge and which had the barge in its care, custody, and control at the time of the hurricane. A week after the storm Army Corps of Engineers project manager Al Naomi gave his preliminary impression, saying, "One would think it's the barge that did it," and confirming that the barge striking the floodwalls would have "precipitated a tremendous collapse".[4] However, in the preliminary report presented to Congress, experts say that the barge was drawn through an existing hole in the floodwall, and that it was the topping of the Industrial Canal floodwall, not the barge, that caused the break.[5] The LSU report subsequently found that overtopping did not occur, rather, design failures precipited the levee failures. By late 2007, several investigations were completed that included analysis of the question of whether the barge had a causative role in one or more of the failures in the floodwalls atop the Industrial Canal levees, or whether it came into the city from an already-existing breach. The investigators funded by the National Science Foundation—from the University of California at Berkeley—concluded that the barge went through an already-existing breach caused by foundation failure of the floodwall. Another group of investigators, funded by the State of Louisiana, came to the same conclusion. Finally, a $20 million study, funded by the Department of Defense/United States Army Corps of Engineers, blamed the Industrial Canal levee failures on overtopping of the floodwalls by the storm surge and resulting scour and undermining of the foundation and not the barge. There is also speculation that the barge may have caused the other nearby breaches in the Industrial Canal by striking the floodwalls on the other side before bouncing back and going all the way through the levee near the end of Prieur Street, although all the scientists and engineers who investigated the failures regard such speculation as dubious and without any evidentiary basis." So I will go with what the Corp, the Department of Defense, LSU, and UCBerkeley folks said. My professional experience with scour is looking at it, and then the math involved, and finally deciding to bring in a guy who had a PhD in Fluvial Geomorphology. For full disclosure, I had never heard the term before I met him.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Sept 1, 2021 22:13:34 GMT -8
Hey! Don't let facts get in the way of someone's fantasy. All it takes is a little internet search and you will find New Orleans did not get 28ft of storm surge during Katrina, but hey don’t let facts get in the way of your ignorance. New Orleans was hit by a 20-foot storm surge in places. The issue on the East side of New Orleans was that the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet Canal funneled water straight into New Orleans. That funneling created what was effectively a 24-foot storm surge, which overtopped the levees on the Eastern side of the city, which were only spec'd to withstand a 14-foot surge. This is where the barge came in. But barge or no barge, the levees were not going to withstand an effective 24-foot surge. Central and Western New Orleans was flooded, because of a long convoluted story involving the Army Corp of Engineers. Basically, the Army misinterpreted borings. (It was assumed that the soil could support a lateral load, which it could not.) And then the Army used sand that could not withstand the load that it was spec'd for. (They basically used substandard sand.) The result was that two levees, which should have been able to withstand a surge of four feet higher were unable to withstand the load and failed in at least three different places. The failures were not as severe as the failures to the East, where there was a more severe surge. The Army's 17th Street Levee only failed on the New Orleans side and protected Eastern Metairie from flooding. But portions of the 17th Street Levee were moved laterally up to 35 feet into New Orleans. As a result of the hurricane, 34 of the 71 pumps were also damaged. The power went out, and the pumps diesel ran out by the day after, meaning that no water could be pumped out of the city. The flooding got worse on the 31st before finally starting to dry out. Repairs were made to the levees and then the pumps were turned back on, which made the situation better. Hurricane Rita hit New Orleans 24 days later, which caused breaches to the hurriedly-repaired levees, which had to be re-repaired. In total, approximately 80% of New Orleans flooded and 95% of St. Bernard Parish. Water was 15-feet high in some places in Eastern New Orleans. Since, Congress pumped in a total of $14.5 billion to improve the flood prevention system in the region. The Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet Canal has been closed, so that future funneling cannot occur. There are now 148 pumps in New Orleans, more than double the 71 that were present for Hurricane Katrina. I also never said anything about New Orleans getting hit by a 28-foot surge. But anyway.
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