Post by chinmusic on May 6, 2021 21:45:14 GMT -8
Kevin Abel has had a good career pitching at Oregon State. He has a career 13-4 record with an ERA of 3.03. It probably isn’t the OSU career he hoped to have when he graduated from Madison High School in San Diego in 2017 with the exception of winning a National Championship ring in 2018. His time at Oregon State has been interrupted by an Ulna Collateral Ligament surgery on his pitching elbow that saw him miss the better part of the 2019 season and the Pandemic shortened 2020 season. While pitching effectively to date in 2021, he has struggled with post surgery consequences that have impeded his full progress. It’s a good time to have a discussion on our Friday night ace.
KA AND THE 2021 MLB DRAFT
There has been some concern among fans that Kevin Abel is walking his way right out of the 2021 Draft. Far from it, his overall 2021 pitching performance and stats don’t support that (see stat breakdown below). He is still firmly on the radar with MLB Scouts and GMs, and will no doubt have his name called in next month’s MLB Draft. Kevin’s draft position will likely depend on a team’s willingness to incur some risk. Do you part with an early round draft pick for a 23 year old RHP that isn’t yet “whole” following TJ surgery? What is the probability KA can fully regain full command and velocity with his fastball? Do the baseball people in your organization think KA is fixable? That assessment could be the difference between a 2nd/3rd round selection and a 10th round pick. The picture right now? KA an early round risk-reward pick for some teams and a latter round safe-bet pick for others.
KA IS STRUGGLING
It’s there in the open for all to see. Kevin fighting to regain his command and the ability to locate his fastball. Obviously the fastball is the issue. Post surgery, he hasn’t regained his previous level of velocity. That is creating all kind of problems with his mechanics and pitching motion. MLB scouts in the greater Los Angeles area came to see him last Friday night at UCLA. That performance only served to further their confusion. Kevin’s fastball was registering 85-88 mph on the “Stalkers”. In the 33rd inning he ticked it up to 89-90 but he was laboring to do it. His command imploded and the parade of walks began. In 2018 and 2019 prior to the TJ surgery, Kevin would sit on 91-92, touch 93 and consistently throw strikes in the bottom of the strike zone. In his attempt to regain the lost velo and movement, issues have surfaced with his motion. Scouts were hoping to see increased velocity and more action in the zone with his number 1.
His sequencing seems to be out of Sync. Maybe rushing or over-throwing in an attempt to increase arm speed to improve the velocity is the issue. Coach Canham has mentioned 88 mph is enough velocity for him with a good mix of his outstanding secondary pitches. Some professional scouts rated his change up the best high school change in the country in 2017. It has consistently been graded a + pitch because of the tumbling action running arm-side and down. It is delivered at 76-77 mph from the identical slot as his fastball with the same arm speed. His 72/73 mph curveball is a 12 to 6 snap dragon with some horizontal break but considerable vertical break. He commands it, starting it above the belt, and then spinning it in the dirt for strike 3. The breaking ball is extremely difficult to follow (optics) and hit – a nasty out pitch that also gets a + grade from the scouts. Kevin also throws both pitches with conviction. Kevin’s makup is +. A bright student (4.0 in high school), tough minded competitor, good citizen, and teammate.
We can only speculate from what we see. I’m not certain our coaches know the full extent of Kevin’s struggle. If they did, they would have fixed it by now. The loss of velocity and command of the fastball has created a myriad of problems for Kevin. He can’t throw it for a strike when he needs to. His number of wild pitches has increased from 6 and 2 in previous seasons to 11 through 43 games this year. The statistical breakdown of base on balls and hit batters tells the story of a pitcher who is battling to regain his primary pitch and the command of it.
BREAKING DOWN KA'S STATS
In 2018, Kevin appeared in 23 games with 7 starts and he logged 81 1/3 innings pitched. In his injury shortened season of 2019, he made 3 appearances with 3 starts and pitched 16 1/3 innings. He was injured during the shortened Pandemic season of 2020. To date in 2021, Kevin has appeared in 11 games with 11 starts and 54 innings pitched. How do his 3 seasons compare?
In 2018 he had an ERA of 2.88 and a WHIP of 1.33. In 2019, he had an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.13. In 2021 YTD, he has an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.24. Over the course of 151 2/3 IP in his OSU career, Kevin has a WHIP of 1.21, allowing the opposition to reach base via Hit, BB and HBP, 10.89 times per 9 innings pitched (5.11 hits + 5.78 BB & HB).
How do his 2021 stats compare to his career stats ? His WHIP of 1.24 compares favorably with his career 1.21 but is better than his 1.33 during the 2018 NC season. He will never be a sub 1.00 WHIP pitcher. He’s always been prone to brief lapses in command and control. He occasionally walks and hits batters.
Kevin’s career ERA over those 151 2/3 IP, is 3.03 (57 runs allowed/ 50 earned). His current ERA of 2.83 is superior to his 2018 NC season (2.88) and the 2019 season (3.86).
His current ERA is testimony that he has been an effective starter in spite of his command struggles.
KA has allowed 87 hits in his career. His current rate of hits allowed/IP is .518. Compare that to .613 in 2018 and 4.70 in 2019. Kevin has not been hit hard in his college career. He has only surrendered 130 total bases in 151 2/3 IP. Opposing teams tend to be limited to hitting mostly singles against him.
Kevin has allowed 1.01 BB+HB/ IP in 2021. In 2019, he allowed .62 BB+HB/ IP and in 2018, he issued .63 passes per IP. Nine times in 2021 Kevin has allowed fewer than 3 hits but has allowed 3+ BB. In addition he has hit 16 opposing batters while allowing only 17 earned runs. While allowing only 28 hits, he has walked or hit 55 opposing hitters. It is here we see the full context of the problem, the inability to locate his primary pitch – the fastball.
KA has struck out 212 opposing batters over his 151 2/3 inning career. That’s 1.39/ IP or 12.51 per 9 innings pitched. A remarkable number for any college pitcher. In 2021, he’s punched out 1.46 batters/ IP (13.14/ 9 innings). In 2019 his metric was 1.53/ IP and in 2018 he struck out 1.32/ IP. This season in spite of struggling with the fastball, his K numbers have held up.
Kevin’s K:BB Ratio in 2018 was 2.4:1, in 2019 it jumped to 2.8:1 and in 2021 YTD, he is at 2.1:1 The high volume of base on balls issued has lowered this ratio considerably.
KA has kept the opposing hitters at bay with a .152 Team BA against him. In 2019 it was .143 and during the phenomenal 2018 season, he held opponents to a .181 Team BA. Scouts say he is very difficult to hit and this stat certainly supports that belief.
SUMMARY
KA should have four more starts to demonstrate he is moving towards resolving his setback. He’ll have an opportunity to face 4 good teams including the PAC-12’s first and second place clubs, Arizona and Stanford. USC and Arizona State will also present a challenge. Demonstrating progress will have a calming effect – nobody wants to see a player struggle. Increased velocity, movement and command with his fastball will help his team during their stretch run leading up to NCAA Regional play. It will elevate his draft status, and calm the anxiety currently gripping Beaver baseball fans. Kevin has demonstrated numerous times in his OSU career he can work his way out of a jam, overcome adversity and deliver results. I’m doubling my bet.
