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Post by irimi on May 6, 2021 16:37:55 GMT -8
If folks are afraid of the side effects, they just need to look at the side effects of Remdesivir, which is the anti-viral drug used to help treat Covid. Also under emergency use authorization from the FDA. Yuck. If you are sick enough to get Remdesivir then you are probably not in a condition to worry about the side effects. So the real reason to be afraid of it is you are a very sick person. The side effect profile is misleading like many meds. There is no or very little data comparing increase over placebo, just data of what was observed as possible side effects. We have not found a significant side effect from this med in a single patient we have treated at the hospital I work at. Quite often in a med that has weak endpoint supportive data, like Remdesivir, the side effects are likewise minimal. Thus, stated side effects are only found due to labs and extensive research, not typical things you would report. My point wasn't to suggest that there is a problem with Remdesivir. But those who argue against the vaccine suggest that the side effects are terrible. Or they claim that it hasn't been approved. Etc. Etc. Those arguments are kind of silly because side effects are side effects. Probably they already take medicines with the potential for terrible side effects. And it's pretty much a given that any medicine/vaccine for Covid is going to be approved on the emergency use approval basis. If a person denies the vaccine and ends up with Covid, then the reasons for that denial become moot as the medicine to help folks recover from Covid suffer the same shortcomings as they see in the vaccine. Might as well get the vaccine. |
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Post by irimi on May 6, 2021 16:50:32 GMT -8
People aren't afraid of the side-effects. They are afraid that they are being lied to. And don't for a moment think that it's because of Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, or various internet trolls. It's because the "experts" have made statement after statement, cited statistic after statistic, and way too many of those statements and statistics have turned out to be garbage. Sometimes their foolishness is transparent (Does anyone in the g**d***ed world really believe that this virus didn't come from the lab in Wuhan?) Sometimes it's cloaked in over-the-top emotional appeals. Sometimes it's patently, purely political. And sometimes it's walked back the very same day. And every time the experts speak as though they have perfect knowledge - bad statistics reported with absurd precision, garbage models cited as though they are more important than actual results. They invoke the name of "science" to justify decisions that are obviously arbitrary. So why is anyone surprised that a substantial portion of the population no longer trusts the "experts"? The average Joe doesn't have the time or knowledge base to evaluate all the claims, for and against the vaccine. So he looks around to find sources that he feels he can trust. He filters out the hypocrites, the politicians, the overwrought, the manipulative, and the repeatedly wrong - that is, most of the media and politicians. Maybe if Joe DiMaggio was still around, people would turn their eyes to him. Blame the media, mostly. According to international surveys, the American media has been the most sensationalistic (and pessimistic) in the world. Blame also the politicians - especially those that turned the pandemic into a partisan election issue. Blame the governors and mayors who banned travel in their state and then promptly took a vacation, got their hair done after shutting down the hairdressers, or enjoyed a banquet after closing the restaurants down. It didn't have to be this way. Imagine if, from day one, this whole crisis had been put in proper perspective . . . simply another flu in a long series of pandemic flus - like the Asian Flu and the Hong Kong Flu, a recurring phenomenon like we've seen before and we'll see again. Imagine if, instead of apocalyptic claims and ridiculous modeling numbers, the experts dispassionately noted the differences between this flu and its predecessors - not in stupidly overprecise statistics, but in terms that are scientifically defensible and relatable to human beings. Simple facts, like that this flu spreads more easily than those earlier flus, is much less deadly for the young, more deadly for the obese and old. People would have found those ideas credible, and if the public policies matched these statements (I'm looking at you, Governor Cuomo, and all the nursing home patients your policies killed), the public trust in government and the "experts" might still be intact. It's too late now. Getting the last 40% or so of the population to vaccinate is not going to be easy. But don't blame the American people - they aren't the ones that threw away their credibility in the search of ratings, power, and fame. You're right. It isn't really about the side effects. And it really isn't about whether it's approved or not. And it really isn't about protecting me or protecting you. For some people. Just a flu? 1. Covid has killed more people in the US alone than the flu has in the past five years. 2. Most people have some built up resistance to the flu. Not for Covid. So everyone is far more susceptible. That's why it spreads so easily. 3. Higher mortality rate with Covid than the flu. 4. Far more cases of long-lasting effects from Covid than the flu. www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/no-covid-19-is-not-the-flu.htmlMaybe you didn't mean it literally. Maybe you want to argue some of these statements. The problem as I see it is that half of the American population believes it is just a flu rather than understanding why it is far more dangerous and has more potential to devastate the population than the flu. Look at India. Look at Italy. |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on May 6, 2021 16:51:14 GMT -8
While we are riffing on meds… I cant stand ads on TV for prescription drugs. I saw one last night for a lung cancer drug. If you have lung cancer are you really shopping around for meds? Hey Doc, I saw that ad on tv for Whosingwhatsit. How about hooking me up with some of that? Or one of my favorite lines from drug ads: Don’t take Xedtruti if you are allergic to Xedtruti. Oh really? And then the long list of potential side effects. Every dam one causes diarrhea. Thanks for that while I’m eating dinner. 🤢 Also, who makes up these names? Love the don’t take it if you are allergic. Is this in case you forgot you were allergic? If you’ve never taken it, how the hell are you supposed to know if your allergic? They should just say "Don't take ____ if you or your family will ever sue anyone" and be done with it. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 6, 2021 16:51:18 GMT -8
It sure is a good thing years and years ago we didn't have a large group of people that thought vaccines for measles, mumps, chicken pox, small pox, etc.were an intrusion into their life. Or that following basic health protocol was the end of their freedom. The smallpox vaccine was created at some time in or before 1549 in China. It was known by the English by 1700. Smallpox vaccine is the original vaccine and is where the word vaccine in English comes from. Vaccinus comes from the word vacca (cow), because the original vaccine for smallpox was cowpox. The smallpox vaccine was known in colonies from 1706 but was opposed for 15 years before vaccination was first used, when it was shown (scientifically) that inoculation (2.5% death rate) was approximately 5-6 times safer than getting smallpox. The vaccine was refined for almost 200 years before being basically perfected in the 1960s. Beginning in 1967, there was a massive global inoculation campaign that basically eradicated smallpox over a 12 year period. The MMR-II vaccine was created in 1989. I did not receive this vaccine, as I was born before 1983. The earlier MMR vaccine, which I received, is approximately 83% effective against measles, mumps and rubella. The original MMR vaccine was introduced in 1971. MMR II supplanted MMR, because it is approximately 88% effective against against measles, mumps and rubella rather than 83%. The Varicella (chickenpox) vaccine was introduced in 1995. (I did not receive a varicella vaccine, because I already had chickenpox in 1995.) The varicella vaccine is at least 70% effective. (That jumps to approximately 89% with a second dose.) A fun fact is that the varicella vaccine helps those who never had chickenpox or shingles from getting both chickenpox and shingles. An unfun fact is that being exposed to people with chickenpox after getting chickenpox decreases the incidence of shingles for people, like me (and I would hazard to guess several others on this board), who got chickenpox before being vaccinated. Thus, any decrease in the amount of people getting chickenpox, like through a massive vaccination program, actually increases the chances that I will get shingles both now and in perpetuity. Define "large group." Approximately 20% of people intentionally do not receive the MMR vaccine or the varicella vaccine. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on May 6, 2021 17:15:19 GMT -8
The H1N1 2009 vaccination was found to have a 26.5% chance of negative adverse affects. And almost three years later was linked to a rare nerve disorder. And that was a much more tried and true vaccine than the current vaccine for COVID-19. I will give you that, because of what the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are, each shot may be safer. But the fact that it is two shots tends to make them inherently less safe than a one-shot vaccine. I believe that, because of what the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is, you will probably have the same or similar adverse affects and has a much higher probability of being tied to something like a rare nerve disorder or similar in 2024 or threabouts. The odds of long-term risks related to either COVID-19 or the vaccine for COVID-19 are so wildly untested and unknown that it is patently silly to try and speak authoritatively about either. I will say that I personally do not trust the Johnson & Johnson vaccine and would be very hesitant to get vaccinated using it. They are already identifying issues with it. My sister is a pharmacist, who works for the Federal government and was sounding the alarm to her friends and family before the blood clot issue was even identified. Because of how it differs from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and from the information that I have been getting from my sister, I would put money down that the identified issues will only continue to grow in both variety and scope in the weeks, months and years to come. Still, because of the inherent safety present within the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and because the risk of death is still very high with coronavirus and the risk of lingering effects because of coronavirus is very high, I would encourage everyone who does not have a great reason not to to go out and get inoculated with the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as soon as they are able to. The more people that are vaccinated, the better off we all are. I have been fully vaccinated for almost three weeks with the Pfizer vaccine. We are in this together. The risk of Guillian-Barre Syndrome from H1N1 vaccine is a million to one. I mean that literally, life time risk of GBS from the vaccine ranges from 1 to 2 cases per 1 million doses. The 26.5% rate of negative adverse events? From the paper itself: "Adverse events occurred among 26.5% of those who complied with H1N1 vaccination. Those were local pain, irritation and induration at site of injection (38.5%), fever (15.4%), fever cough and rhinorrhea (15.4%) generalized pain and lumber pains (23.1%)." -Ortiz Arjona MA, Abd Elaziz KM, Caballero Lanzas JM, Allam MF. Coverage and side effects of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 monovalent vaccine among primary health care workers. Vaccine. 2011 Aug 26;29(37):6366-8. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.04.117. PMID: 21840463. Yes Wilky, they counted a sore arm and immune reactions... Like nearly every vaccine on this entire planet, your standard hazard to catch the disease and die from it is higher than the risk of taking the vaccine and having a severe reaction to it. As you noted with JnJ the running odds of getting a severe blood clot from it is 1 in 1,133,401. And that does not account for the fact that all the women who developed blood clots from the JnJ vaccine had thrombocytopenia, a blood disorder that results in low platelet counts. in comparison, the standard odds a woman with thrombocytopenia develops a blood clot in their life is 1 in 200,000. The running odds an American naturally just gets COVID and DIES? based on total population and total COVID Mortality? 1 in 625... People are really bad at math. Get the f%#*ing shot already. Any of them. All of them. Just do it. As a side note, all of these vaccines have literally been tested on upwards of 10x the number of people any other drug on earth gets tested on prior to FDA approval. A typical drug conducts a phase III trial on between 300 and 3000 individuals, where as all three of these drugs had study populations of 30,000. People seem to worry about long term effects, but literally no drug on this planet has long term effects studied prior to approval. ongoing studies (known as Phase VI) track these outcomes and may or may not result in a drug being pulled, or having new guidance put around it. But long story short, not a single one of you have ever taken a drug in your entire life that was tested on more people at the time of approval, than these vaccines. It has literally never happened. People are worried about the speed of the trials... this isn't a major issues. the only reason typical Phase III trials take years is because the government isn't picking up the tab. Testing is really expense. So a normal drug company gets small cohorts and tests a batch of a hundred or so, then does it again, and again, until they have sufficient numbers. However, generally they are NOT doing extensive follow up on those patients, that is not the parameters of the phase III trial and not what the FDA looks at. Bottom line: it seems fast because drug companies had a blank check and maximum priority on this. No corners were cut, no warnings ignorned. We are not Russia. We did it right, but we did it American... we spend an ABSURD amount of money to get here, all on the backs of 100s of companies and thousands of scientists working together. The CDC says that the increase in Guillain-Barré Syndrome ("GBS") among those inoculated with the H1N1 vaccine is 99,999 to 1, i.e. 1 out of 100,000, not 1 in 1 million. Your numbers appear to be off by an order of magnitude. I think that you are citing numbers for the seasonal flu, but you may still be off by about 100%. I.e. I believe that the number is 1-2 out of million, rather than merely 1 out of a million. An increase of 1 additional case of GBS for 100,000 might be up to a 1000% increase in risk of GBS. Only 92.4% of the most mild side effects encapsulated by the 26.5% number are listed. More than 2% of the people who were inoculated had worse side effects than in the list. I still say that, even if you set the increased risk of severe blood clots aside, I still would not touch the Johnson & Johnson vaccine with a 39-and-a-half foot pole. Good stuff otherwise. Get vaccinated! |
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Post by spudbeaver on May 6, 2021 18:24:12 GMT -8
While we are riffing on meds… I cant stand ads on TV for prescription drugs. I saw one last night for a lung cancer drug. If you have lung cancer are you really shopping around for meds? Hey Doc, I saw that ad on tv for Whosingwhatsit. How about hooking me up with some of that? Or one of my favorite lines from drug ads: Don’t take Xedtruti if you are allergic to Xedtruti. Oh really? And then the long list of potential side effects. Every dam one causes diarrhea. Thanks for that while I’m eating dinner. 🤢 Also, who makes up these names? This might help! |
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Post by green85 on May 7, 2021 7:14:16 GMT -8
People aren't afraid of the side-effects. They are afraid that they are being lied to. And don't for a moment think that it's because of Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, or various internet trolls. It's because the "experts" have made statement after statement, cited statistic after statistic, and way too many of those statements and statistics have turned out to be garbage. Sometimes their foolishness is transparent (Does anyone in the g**d***ed world really believe that this virus didn't come from the lab in Wuhan?) Sometimes it's cloaked in over-the-top emotional appeals. Sometimes it's patently, purely political. And sometimes it's walked back the very same day. And every time the experts speak as though they have perfect knowledge - bad statistics reported with absurd precision, garbage models cited as though they are more important than actual results. They invoke the name of "science" to justify decisions that are obviously arbitrary. So why is anyone surprised that a substantial portion of the population no longer trusts the "experts"? The average Joe doesn't have the time or knowledge base to evaluate all the claims, for and against the vaccine. So he looks around to find sources that he feels he can trust. He filters out the hypocrites, the politicians, the overwrought, the manipulative, and the repeatedly wrong - that is, most of the media and politicians. Maybe if Joe DiMaggio was still around, people would turn their eyes to him. Blame the media, mostly. According to international surveys, the American media has been the most sensationalistic (and pessimistic) in the world. Blame also the politicians - especially those that turned the pandemic into a partisan election issue. Blame the governors and mayors who banned travel in their state and then promptly took a vacation, got their hair done after shutting down the hairdressers, or enjoyed a banquet after closing the restaurants down. It didn't have to be this way. Imagine if, from day one, this whole crisis had been put in proper perspective . . . simply another flu in a long series of pandemic flus - like the Asian Flu and the Hong Kong Flu, a recurring phenomenon like we've seen before and we'll see again. Imagine if, instead of apocalyptic claims and ridiculous modeling numbers, the experts dispassionately noted the differences between this flu and its predecessors - not in stupidly overprecise statistics, but in terms that are scientifically defensible and relatable to human beings. Simple facts, like that this flu spreads more easily than those earlier flus, is much less deadly for the young, more deadly for the obese and old. People would have found those ideas credible, and if the public policies matched these statements (I'm looking at you, Governor Cuomo, and all the nursing home patients your policies killed), the public trust in government and the "experts" might still be intact. It's too late now. Getting the last 40% or so of the population to vaccinate is not going to be easy. But don't blame the American people - they aren't the ones that threw away their credibility in the search of ratings, power, and fame. This perspective makes me ask the most basic question: WHY would a scientist, doctor or public health administrator lie or mislead about statistics? Your own presentation actually undermines the idea that any of these people would intentionally lie, that they would WANT to have you mistrust the info. |
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Post by atownbeaver on May 7, 2021 8:07:38 GMT -8
The risk of Guillian-Barre Syndrome from H1N1 vaccine is a million to one. I mean that literally, life time risk of GBS from the vaccine ranges from 1 to 2 cases per 1 million doses. The 26.5% rate of negative adverse events? From the paper itself: "Adverse events occurred among 26.5% of those who complied with H1N1 vaccination. Those were local pain, irritation and induration at site of injection (38.5%), fever (15.4%), fever cough and rhinorrhea (15.4%) generalized pain and lumber pains (23.1%)." -Ortiz Arjona MA, Abd Elaziz KM, Caballero Lanzas JM, Allam MF. Coverage and side effects of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 monovalent vaccine among primary health care workers. Vaccine. 2011 Aug 26;29(37):6366-8. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.04.117. PMID: 21840463. Yes Wilky, they counted a sore arm and immune reactions... Like nearly every vaccine on this entire planet, your standard hazard to catch the disease and die from it is higher than the risk of taking the vaccine and having a severe reaction to it. As you noted with JnJ the running odds of getting a severe blood clot from it is 1 in 1,133,401. And that does not account for the fact that all the women who developed blood clots from the JnJ vaccine had thrombocytopenia, a blood disorder that results in low platelet counts. in comparison, the standard odds a woman with thrombocytopenia develops a blood clot in their life is 1 in 200,000. The running odds an American naturally just gets COVID and DIES? based on total population and total COVID Mortality? 1 in 625... People are really bad at math. Get the f%#*ing shot already. Any of them. All of them. Just do it. As a side note, all of these vaccines have literally been tested on upwards of 10x the number of people any other drug on earth gets tested on prior to FDA approval. A typical drug conducts a phase III trial on between 300 and 3000 individuals, where as all three of these drugs had study populations of 30,000. People seem to worry about long term effects, but literally no drug on this planet has long term effects studied prior to approval. ongoing studies (known as Phase VI) track these outcomes and may or may not result in a drug being pulled, or having new guidance put around it. But long story short, not a single one of you have ever taken a drug in your entire life that was tested on more people at the time of approval, than these vaccines. It has literally never happened. People are worried about the speed of the trials... this isn't a major issues. the only reason typical Phase III trials take years is because the government isn't picking up the tab. Testing is really expense. So a normal drug company gets small cohorts and tests a batch of a hundred or so, then does it again, and again, until they have sufficient numbers. However, generally they are NOT doing extensive follow up on those patients, that is not the parameters of the phase III trial and not what the FDA looks at. Bottom line: it seems fast because drug companies had a blank check and maximum priority on this. No corners were cut, no warnings ignorned. We are not Russia. We did it right, but we did it American... we spend an ABSURD amount of money to get here, all on the backs of 100s of companies and thousands of scientists working together. The CDC says that the increase in Guillain-Barré Syndrome ("GBS") among those inoculated with the H1N1 vaccine is 99,999 to 1, i.e. 1 out of 100,000, not 1 in 1 million. Your numbers appear to be off by an order of magnitude. I think that you are citing numbers for the seasonal flu, but you may still be off by about 100%. I.e. I believe that the number is 1-2 out of million, rather than merely 1 out of a million. An increase of 1 additional case of GBS for 100,000 might be up to a 1000% increase in risk of GBS. Only 92.4% of the most mild side effects encapsulated by the 26.5% number are listed. More than 2% of the people who were inoculated had worse side effects than in the list. I still say that, even if you set the increased risk of severe blood clots aside, I still would not touch the Johnson & Johnson vaccine with a 39-and-a-half foot pole. Good stuff otherwise. Get vaccinated! No. Among those inoculated SPECIFICALLY with the 1976 swine flu vaccine the risk of GBS was elevated: "in 1976, there was a small increased risk of GBS after swine flu vaccination, which was a special flu vaccine for a potential pandemic strain of flu virus. The National Academy of Medicine, formerly known as Institute of Medicine, conducted a scientific review of this issue in 2003 and found that people who received the 1976 swine flu vaccine had an increased risk for developing GBS. The increased risk was approximately one additional case of GBS for every 100,000 people who got the swine flu vaccine. Scientists have several theories about the cause, but the exact reason for this link remains unknown."For the 2009 H1N1 flu vaccine risk of GBS was 0.74 cases per million: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3888111/"The rate of GBS immediately following pH1N1 vaccination was 57% higher than in person-time unexposed to vaccine (adjusted rate ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 2.21), corresponding to 0.74 excess GBS cases per million pH1N1 vaccine doses (95% confidence interval: 0.04, 1.56). This excess risk was much smaller than that observed during the 1976 vaccine campaign and was comparable to some previous seasonal influenza vaccine risk assessments." - Wise, M. E., Viray, M., Sejvar, J. J., Lewis, P., Baughman, A. L., Connor, W., Danila, R., Giambrone, G. P., Hale, C., Hogan, B. C., Meek, J. I., Murphree, R., Oh, J. Y., Reingold, A., Tellman, N., Conner, S. M., Singleton, J. A., Lu, P. J., DeStefano, F., Fridkin, S. K., … Morgan, O. W. (2012). Guillain-Barre syndrome during the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza vaccination campaign: population-based surveillance among 45 million Americans. American journal of epidemiology, 175(11), 1110–1119. doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws196And as I noted before, ongoing annually assessment of GBS pegs the risk at 1 to 2 cases per million doses. H1N1 has been a component of the season flu vaccine in essentially every year for like 40 years now. In one year, for one vaccine, in 1976, risk of GBS increased. |
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Post by speakthetruth on May 7, 2021 8:10:02 GMT -8
Some politicians lied and continue to lie, some media have lied and continue to lie. Covid was a new virus infecting millions around the world the responsible scientists/doctors used the information available and made a best guess on how to combat the virus. When new information became available the scientists/doctors changed their approach. The scientists/doctors didn't lie but changed as information changed. Some politicians and media continue to do what they can to screw things up. Unfortunately those politicians/media are of the same political persuasion and many listen to that mindset.
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Post by atownbeaver on May 7, 2021 8:17:20 GMT -8
People aren't afraid of the side-effects. They are afraid that they are being lied to. And don't for a moment think that it's because of Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, or various internet trolls. It's because the "experts" have made statement after statement, cited statistic after statistic, and way too many of those statements and statistics have turned out to be garbage. Sometimes their foolishness is transparent (Does anyone in the g**d***ed world really believe that this virus didn't come from the lab in Wuhan?) Sometimes it's cloaked in over-the-top emotional appeals. Sometimes it's patently, purely political. And sometimes it's walked back the very same day. And every time the experts speak as though they have perfect knowledge - bad statistics reported with absurd precision, garbage models cited as though they are more important than actual results. They invoke the name of "science" to justify decisions that are obviously arbitrary. So why is anyone surprised that a substantial portion of the population no longer trusts the "experts"? The average Joe doesn't have the time or knowledge base to evaluate all the claims, for and against the vaccine. So he looks around to find sources that he feels he can trust. He filters out the hypocrites, the politicians, the overwrought, the manipulative, and the repeatedly wrong - that is, most of the media and politicians. Maybe if Joe DiMaggio was still around, people would turn their eyes to him. Blame the media, mostly. According to international surveys, the American media has been the most sensationalistic (and pessimistic) in the world. Blame also the politicians - especially those that turned the pandemic into a partisan election issue. Blame the governors and mayors who banned travel in their state and then promptly took a vacation, got their hair done after shutting down the hairdressers, or enjoyed a banquet after closing the restaurants down. It didn't have to be this way. Imagine if, from day one, this whole crisis had been put in proper perspective . . . simply another flu in a long series of pandemic flus - like the Asian Flu and the Hong Kong Flu, a recurring phenomenon like we've seen before and we'll see again. Imagine if, instead of apocalyptic claims and ridiculous modeling numbers, the experts dispassionately noted the differences between this flu and its predecessors - not in stupidly overprecise statistics, but in terms that are scientifically defensible and relatable to human beings. Simple facts, like that this flu spreads more easily than those earlier flus, is much less deadly for the young, more deadly for the obese and old. People would have found those ideas credible, and if the public policies matched these statements (I'm looking at you, Governor Cuomo, and all the nursing home patients your policies killed), the public trust in government and the "experts" might still be intact. It's too late now. Getting the last 40% or so of the population to vaccinate is not going to be easy. But don't blame the American people - they aren't the ones that threw away their credibility in the search of ratings, power, and fame. This perspective makes me ask the most basic question: WHY would a scientist, doctor or public health administrator lie or mislead about statistics? Your own presentation actually undermines the idea that any of these people would intentionally lie, that they would WANT to have you mistrust the info. They would not. But who would is a politician and/or the media. Scientist know that science is about presenting findings based on data, experiment and observation. Scientist know that findings will change with new data and experiment and observation, so at all time they simply try to present the best information they can given what has been observed at the time. Scientist accept, as easily as they breath, they things will probably change and they will gain new knowledge and understanding. Political leaders want to look smart, competent and in control. They will present findings as cold hard facts. Newspaper and the media simply want to sell papers, they will misappropriate or mischaracterize science readily to craft a more compelling narrative to get you to buy that paper or click that story. One of the things that i found profoundly sad is how even among our OHA leaders, how bad we are a scientific communication. How bad we are at simply saying "this is what we know today, this is why we are doing this". it seems so simple and so straight forward and any researcher or analyst with the state would likely present data this way. Most fundamentally it is because leaders to not believe a population will listen if the message carries any sense of uncertainty. they may not actually be wrong on this... |
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Post by atownbeaver on May 7, 2021 9:08:25 GMT -8
I'm not an anti-vax person. I get a flu shot every year and got Moderna second shot last Monday. I can understand why some folks are skeptics however. Any and all Covid vaccines thus far only FDA 'authorization for emergency use'. No vaccine has FDA 'Approval' to prevent Covid-19 (read the literature they give you when you get the shot). The 'deaths from Covid' number is very misleading too. 'Deaths WITH Covid' is far more representative of who is dying and what they are dying from. ARGH, can't believe I missed this. This is 100% false and gross misinformation. Major pet peeve of mine. This stuff comes from people not understanding how death certificates are filled out. Here is a link to an OHA site that explains it: www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/BIRTHDEATHCERTIFICATES/VITALSTATISTICS/DEATH/Pages/reporting-covid-deaths.aspxThe nice picture in there shows you Part 1 of the death certificate. The system of recording cause of death is ascending from the most immediate cause to then ending with the underlying cause. The first recorded cause of death is generally one of like, 4 or 5 things for COVID: Respiratory failure, multi-organ failure, renal failure, or heart failure. something like that... The LAST recorded cause is the actual cause of death. Not the first thing. A COVID death ends with COVID, it doesn't begin with it. THIS is where bad actors, the uninformed, or internet trolls try to manipulate statistics. a properly filled out death certificate will never have COVID listed in line a. A properly filled out death certificate will have COVID listed as the underlying cause of death on line b through c. What people do is report how many death certificates were hastily or incorrectly filled out to list COVID as the immediate cause of death... It literally boils my blood on this one. Saying deaths with COVID is akin to saying he didn't die from the gunshot, he died from blood loss... It is not just pedantic, it is wrong. at the end of the day, every human on earth eventually only dies from like 5 things: you stop breathing, your heart stops, or a lot of things stop at once... that is it! what actually matters was the thing that made your heart stop. PLEASE stop spreading this bulls%#t around. 2,500 people in Oregon and 580,000 people in the US has died as a result from being infected with COVID. no ifs, ands, ors, or buts about it. Period. They caught COVID. it killed him. Doesn't matter if diabetes was a complication, doesn't matter if it was a 104 fever that triggered a heart attack. doesn't matter if the doctor coded pneumonia ahead of the covid that caused the respiratory failure, doesn't matter if it was a blood clot. The COVID infection was the trigger of events that lead to the death... end of discussion. Because without COVID you don't have the blood clot or the pneumonia or the fever or the whatever. |
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Post by orangeattack on May 7, 2021 9:32:39 GMT -8
I'm not an anti-vax person. I get a flu shot every year and got Moderna second shot last Monday. I can understand why some folks are skeptics however. Any and all Covid vaccines thus far only FDA 'authorization for emergency use'. No vaccine has FDA 'Approval' to prevent Covid-19 (read the literature they give you when you get the shot). The 'deaths from Covid' number is very misleading too. 'Deaths WITH Covid' is far more representative of who is dying and what they are dying from. ARGH, can't believe I missed this. This is 100% false and gross misinformation. Major pet peeve of mine. This stuff comes from people not understanding how death certificates are filled out. Here is a link to an OHA site that explains it: www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/BIRTHDEATHCERTIFICATES/VITALSTATISTICS/DEATH/Pages/reporting-covid-deaths.aspxThe nice picture in there shows you Part 1 of the death certificate. The system of recording cause of death is ascending from the most immediate cause to then ending with the underlying cause. The first recorded cause of death is generally one of like, 4 or 5 things for COVID: Respiratory failure, multi-organ failure, renal failure, or heart failure. something like that... The LAST recorded cause is the actual cause of death. Not the first thing. A COVID death ends with COVID, it doesn't begin with it. THIS is where bad actors, the uninformed, or internet trolls try to manipulate statistics. a properly filled out death certificate will never have COVID listed in line a. A properly filled out death certificate will have COVID listed as the underlying cause of death on line b through c. What people do is report how many death certificates were hastily or incorrectly filled out to list COVID as the immediate cause of death... It literally boils my blood on this one. Saying deaths with COVID is akin to saying he didn't die from the gunshot, he died from blood loss... It is not just pedantic, it is wrong. at the end of the day, every human on earth eventually only dies from like 5 things: you stop breathing, your heart stops, or a lot of things stop at once... that is it! what actually matters was the thing that made your heart stop. PLEASE stop spreading this bulls%#t around. 2,500 people in Oregon and 580,000 people in the US has died as a result from being infected with COVID. no ifs, ands, ors, or buts about it. Period. They caught COVID. it killed him. Doesn't matter if diabetes was a complication, doesn't matter if it was a 104 fever that triggered a heart attack. doesn't matter if the doctor coded pneumonia ahead of the covid that caused the respiratory failure, doesn't matter if it was a blood clot. The COVID infection was the trigger of events that lead to the death... end of discussion. Because without COVID you don't have the blood clot or the pneumonia or the fever or the whatever. The easiest way to wrap your head around it is to look at Excess Death. It's a pretty simple way of sorting through all the confusing data - there are established death rates that can be projected pretty accurately going back about 50 years. Between March 1, 2020, and January 2, 2021, the US experienced 2 801 439 deaths, 22.9% more than expected, representing 522 368 excess deaths. The excess death rate was higher among non-Hispanic Black (208.4 deaths per 100 000) than non-Hispanic White or Hispanic populations (157.0 and 139.8 deaths per 100 000, respectively); these groups accounted for 16.9%, 61.1%, and 16.7% of excess deaths, respectively. So the simple logical question is, if not for Covid then how do you account for the rise in deaths? What killed half a million more Americans than all the data showed that it would? |
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Post by bennyskid on May 7, 2021 9:42:55 GMT -8
Because they aren't very smart? Having a lot of very domain-specific knowledge does not automatically make a person immune to being generally stupid. In fact, our over-specialized academic system could hardly be better designed to create minds more prone to fallacy. What better way to create people vulnerable to group-think and confirmation bias than to sequester them through their formative years in an artificial environment where they single-mindedly study the narrowest of topics and develop arcane studies and arguments to promote minute points - an environment in which advancement depends entirely on gaining the favor of a small cabal of judges and everyone is absolutely confident of their overall superiority?
Seriously. How could you make grad school any worse for developing healthy, perspicacious minds?
And yet it seems that we are to assume that all scientists, doctors, and health administrators are incapable of error, self-dealing, or self-delusion.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on May 7, 2021 10:22:37 GMT -8
When the OHA lists the daily Covid dead, it should also add, "This person was not vaccinated," or "This person was vaccinated," whichever is applicable. I'm pretty sure what would be the prevailing answer.
I have little or no sympathy for anyone 65 or over who dies of Covid at this time. The vaccine has been available since mid-January, in abundant supply. If you can't make the effort to easily protect yourself in three full months, then you don't merit my empathy. Stupid is as stupid does.
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Post by spudbeaver on May 7, 2021 10:26:16 GMT -8
Some politicians lied and continue to lie, some media have lied and continue to lie. Covid was a new virus infecting millions around the world the responsible scientists/doctors used the information available and made a best guess on how to combat the virus. When new information became available the scientists/doctors changed their approach. The scientists/doctors didn't lie but changed as information changed. Some politicians and media continue to do what they can to screw things up. Unfortunately those politicians/media are of the same political persuasion and many listen to that mindset. You had some good points right up until the end there. |
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