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Post by mbabeav on Sept 23, 2020 9:06:09 GMT -8
Your point #2, I agree completely. MLB 3rd baseman have thousands of reps of bare handing the bunt and throwing across their body just like Fred Astaire dancing with an umbrella in the rain. D1 3rd baseman are there because they were high school shortstops who couldn't play the position defensively at a higher level. Just as Dee Andros loved to recruit fullbacks and mold them into different positions, I felt like Casey and Co. loved to recruit shortstops and slide them into different positions. If my memory serves me correctly, I think we recruited 4 legit D1 shortstops a few years back, and they went to 2nd, 3rd, short and outfield. And wasn't Bryce an all-league shortstop in high school?
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Sept 23, 2020 10:09:28 GMT -8
Your point #2, I agree completely. MLB 3rd baseman have thousands of reps of bare handing the bunt and throwing across their body just like Fred Astaire dancing with an umbrella in the rain. D1 3rd baseman are there because they were high school shortstops who couldn't play the position defensively at a higher level. Just as Dee Andros loved to recruit fullbacks and mold them into different positions, I felt like Casey and Co. loved to recruit shortstops and slide them into different positions. If my memory serves me correctly, I think we recruited 4 legit D1 shortstops a few years back, and they went to 2nd, 3rd, short and outfield. And wasn't Bryce an all-league shortstop in high school?Yes. He was also his team's closer. Fehmel was supposed to be a middle infielder and a spot pitcher. He was basically a backup plan, in case Cadyn Grenier went pro. Grenier didn't, and Madrigal showed up the same year. So, Fehmel wound up well behind both. The staff was wrecked at the time. Christian Martinek missed 2015 recovering from TJ surgery, and he would never really recover. Sam Tweedt was out in 2016, recovering from TJ surgery, as well. Jake Thompson was trying to overcome a back injury, which kept him out most of 2015. Then, Oregon State's ace, Drew Rasmussen went down in late March, which ultimately resulted in TJ surgery. So, the staff worked more with Bryce as a pitcher. Travis Eckert moved to a Friday starter, and Luke Heimlich moved into the rotation. Fehmel ultimately took over Thompson's spot, and became a Freshman All-American.
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Post by mbabeav on Sept 23, 2020 10:36:03 GMT -8
Just as Dee Andros loved to recruit fullbacks and mold them into different positions, I felt like Casey and Co. loved to recruit shortstops and slide them into different positions. If my memory serves me correctly, I think we recruited 4 legit D1 shortstops a few years back, and they went to 2nd, 3rd, short and outfield. And wasn't Bryce an all-league shortstop in high school?Yes. He was also his team's closer. Fehmel was supposed to be a middle infielder and a spot pitcher. He was basically a backup plan, in case Cadyn Grenier went pro. Grenier didn't, and Madrigal showed up the same year. So, Fehmel wound up well behind both. The staff was wrecked at the time. Christian Martinek missed 2015 recovering from TJ surgery, and he would never really recover. Sam Tweedt was out in 2016, recovering from TJ surgery, as well. Jake Thompson was trying to overcome a back injury, which kept him out most of 2015. Then, Oregon State's ace, Drew Rasmussen went down in late March, which ultimately resulted in TJ surgery. So, the staff worked more with Bryce as a pitcher. Travis Eckert moved to a Friday starter, and Luke Heimlich moved into the rotation. Fehmel ultimately took over Thompson's spot, and became a Freshman All-American. Fehmel started his career from the pen and won several games averaging about 2 innings an outing because the game was tied or the team was behind, and they scored late to win. It was amazing to look at his win/loss record after the first two months of the season vs. his average innings per game pitched.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Sept 23, 2020 13:20:17 GMT -8
Yes. He was also his team's closer. Fehmel was supposed to be a middle infielder and a spot pitcher. He was basically a backup plan, in case Cadyn Grenier went pro. Grenier didn't, and Madrigal showed up the same year. So, Fehmel wound up well behind both. The staff was wrecked at the time. Christian Martinek missed 2015 recovering from TJ surgery, and he would never really recover. Sam Tweedt was out in 2016, recovering from TJ surgery, as well. Jake Thompson was trying to overcome a back injury, which kept him out most of 2015. Then, Oregon State's ace, Drew Rasmussen went down in late March, which ultimately resulted in TJ surgery. So, the staff worked more with Bryce as a pitcher. Travis Eckert moved to a Friday starter, and Luke Heimlich moved into the rotation. Fehmel ultimately took over Thompson's spot, and became a Freshman All-American. Fehmel started his career from the pen and won several games averaging about 2 innings an outing because the game was tied or the team was behind, and they scored late to win. It was amazing to look at his win/loss record after the first two months of the season vs. his average innings per game pitched. Through the first six weeks, Bryce Fehmel was 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA, averaging 1.1 innings per outing. By that point, he was the mid-week starter. After Travis Eckert tweaked his back in the sixth against Washington, Fehmel came in on three days' rest to finish the final four innings and picked up his first save. When Eckert had not recovered in time the following weekend, Casey played it safe and started Fehmel, who came in and picked up win number six. Fehmel finished off Washington State for Eckert the next week, and Utah for Luke Heimlich the week after that. In the nightcap, Mitch Hickey gave up a double to clear the bases, which resulted in Fehmel picking up his only loss in 2016.
The following weekend, Fehmel finished Travis Eckert's masterful eight-inning, two-run performance by pitching a perfect ninth. Unfortunately, Oregon State could not hit Tristan Beck (4th Round, #112), and the Beavers were down 2-1. In the bottom of the ninth, Logan Ice singled. Trever Morrison bunted, which the third baseman mishandled, putting runners on the corners. Steven Kwan pinch hit for Michael Gretler. Kwan hit a bunt single to drive in Ice to tie the game. Billy King pinch hit for Cadyn Grenier, who walked the bases full. Christian Donahue then walked home Morrison to hand Fehmel win number seven.
Fehmel came back on one day's rest to pick up win number eight, relieving Jake Thompson in the fifth with the bases loaded out and two outs in a 5-3 game. Fehmel struck out Tommy Edman (6th Round, #196) to end the fifth. Fehmel only allowed three hits and a run over the next four innings. Oregon State ultimately won 11-4.
Fehmel threw 4 1/3 innings against Arizona and was in line for win number nine the following weekend before being pulled for Max Engelbrekt in the seventh. Two pitches later, Christian Donahue dropped a fly ball to left, which ultimately allowed three runs to score. A 5-3 Oregon State lead turned into a 6-5 Arizona win. The win helped the Wildcats take the Beavers' spot in the final field of 64. Arizona would ultimately play in the Championship Series against Coastal Carolina.
The following weekend, Fehmel relieved Heimlich, pitching the final 3 1/3 innings to earn his second save against Oregon.
Fehmel replaced Thompson the final two weekends and did not allow an earned run in 16 1/3 innings, leading Oregon State to two badly-needed wins. Those two wins with the Stanford win were the only Sunday conference wins after the Arizona State series. (The Arizona State series was the season-opening series in conference.)
Unfortunately, Southern California shelled Heimlich in what was ultimately a 10-1 win. That loss was apparently the nail in the coffin in Oregon State's 2016 Field of 64 chances thanks, in no small part, to Lindsay Meggs.
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Post by pabeaver on Sept 23, 2020 19:12:44 GMT -8
Couple of points from the peanut gallery. 1. Absolutely nothing wrong with bunting for a base hit. Giving up an out sacrificing a runner to second is an entirely different matter in 90+ % of the game situations that arise. 2. The mountains of data the Sabermetric honks have processed over the past 20 years applies only to MLB. The college game is a different animal. There are are a couple of situations that offer a near 50% chance of executing the hit and run safely, but the sac bunt falls into the same category as giving up the intentional base on balls - statistically, a poor decision. 3. Any MLB Analytics Department will tell you, Batting orders are important, but only because people think they are important. Their belief is to build the order sequentially using OBP or SLG, or a weighted combination of both. Your best OBP leads off, your second best hits #2, and on down to 9. The data tells them stacking your best offensive performers in sequence will produce the greatest number of runs over the course of a season. The ideal lineup, whatever that is, will have no more than 1.5 additional wins over 162 game season. The impact of any batting order combination is minimal. I heard comments last year about McGarry hitting second in our order but remember, MC is a product of the data driven Mariner organization. He's a true believer. For old-school guys, this is blasphemy but the data supports it and you find yourself defending your myths against the facts. I agree. How do you feel about bunting over a lead off double given the increased possibility of scoring from third? Tied in the 9th, I say yes.
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Post by chinmusic on Sept 23, 2020 23:34:48 GMT -8
Analyze the situation. Make 3 assumptions, 1) your runner at 2B has average or better speed, 2) the batter has average or better bunting ability, and 3) the defense isn't in some odd shift knowing the bunt is in order.
With your runner on second and 0 outs, your chance of scoring him (run expectancy) is 1.0762. If your bunt misfires (a hard bunt back to the pitcher and he looks your runner back to 2B or you run and are dead meat, or he pops it up and the runner can't advance, you now have a runner at second with one out and your run expectancy drops to 0.6487.
If you can bunt him over successfully, a runner at 3B with one down has a run expectancy of 0.8916. OK, we have dispensed with the metrics - now the major consideration.
From 2B you can score your runner with 1) a base hit or 2) a 2-base error, ruling out as improbable a PB or WP that would allow a runner to score from second.
But. . . . from 3rd base, you can plate that runner with a 1) wild pitch, 2) past ball, 3) steal, 4) base hit, 5) error, 6) balk, 7) sac fly, 8) balk, and 9) safety or suicide squeeze. If you can load the bases, you have 3 additional opportunities to score the runner from 3B, 1) base on balls, 2) hit batsmen, 3) catcher interference
Given that the run expectancy metrics are favorable, and the overwhelming scoring opportunities with the runner at 3rd with less than 2 outs, as opposed to having him at second with no outs, I would bunt his azz over in a heartbeat.
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Post by chinmusic on Sept 25, 2020 23:29:44 GMT -8
The initial inclination is to look for a reason Nick hits 9th in the Sox order, but that's a trap. There is no logical explanation in this era of stat-driven baseball. In terms of wins, where Nick bats is inconsequential over a full season of baseball.
A frequently cited example is when Billy Martin was managing the Tigers and the entire order was in a deep slump at the plate. The losses mounted until Martin, completely frustrated drew names out of a hat and randomly made up his batting order. The Tigers exploded and won. The next night he repeated the names out of the hat lineup and they won again. He continued to do that over 11 games and the Tigers went on a winning streak
His conclusion? The ideal batting order is the one that that comes out of a hat and wins that game.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Sept 27, 2020 19:52:31 GMT -8
He finished his abbreviated rookie season with a .340 average. Unless he pulls a Dan Gladden (hit .351 as a rookie, then never within 55 points of that in his next 10 seasons), he'll have many more successful seasons. And a career equal to Gladden's is nothing to sneeze at, either.
Fun fact: Dan Gladden scored the winning run in the 1991 World Series, then never played another game for the Twins. Just like Jack Morris, that game's winning pitcher.
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