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Post by Ruh Roh Beav on Sept 20, 2020 11:21:29 GMT -8
So far the young man is 2 for 2 with 1 rbi.....be curious if this move in batting order is a temporary situation....
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Post by Angus on Sept 20, 2020 17:34:27 GMT -8
Kind of hard to justify placing a .340 BA in the 9 hole.
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Post by chinmusic on Sept 20, 2020 19:57:19 GMT -8
The modern game disciples of analytics and Sabermetrics will tell you that your best hitter belongs in the 2-hole. they have mountains of data that support that claim.
The myth of your #2 hitter needing to be a "bat control guy that can bunt and hit & run" was discounted 10 years ago. That is the thinking in pro ball but not necessarily fully accepted at the college or prep level.
It tells you what the White Sox think of Nick as a hitter.
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Post by mbabeav on Sept 21, 2020 11:54:40 GMT -8
The modern game disciples of analytics and Sabermetrics will tell you that your best hitter belongs in the 2-hole. they have mountains of data that support that claim. The myth of your #2 hitter needing to be a "bat control guy that can bunt and hit & run" was discounted 10 years ago. That is the thinking in pro ball but not necessarily fully accepted at the college or prep level. It tells you what the White Sox think of Nick as a hitter. Well, they have a guy that doesn't strike out, can bunt and hit it anywhere he wants to, and hit for a high average. Meets all of that old criteria and more.
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Post by chinmusic on Sept 21, 2020 12:16:28 GMT -8
Ha-ha, good point and I agree with all of that.
However, the analytics guys tell you the sac-bunt is a terrible play and the hit and run is only slightly better in most situations. These guys all start with the premise that Pat Casey articulated frequently, you only have 27 outs and what you gain in exchange for giving up an out has to statistically be of greater value.
They use a probability matrix called the Markov Model to calculate the %'s.
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Post by Judge Smails on Sept 21, 2020 13:30:46 GMT -8
Ha-ha, good point and I agree with all of that. However, the analytics guys tell you the sac-bunt is a terrible play and the hit and run is only slightly better in most situations. These guys all start with the premise that Pat Casey articulated frequently, you only have 27 outs and what you gain in exchange for giving up an out has to statistically be of greater value. They use a probability matrix called the Markov Model to calculate the %'s. Casey had our guys bunting all the time
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Post by beaverstever on Sept 21, 2020 13:47:11 GMT -8
Weird to think the MLB thinks both Madrigal and Conforto are #2 batters (that's where I've seen Conforto batting most often of late)
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Post by Judge Smails on Sept 21, 2020 13:57:16 GMT -8
Weird to think the MLB thinks both Madrigal and Conforto are #2 batters (that's where I've seen Conforto batting most often of late) They don’t. White Sox gave Moncada a rest. Nick will be back in the #9 slot today
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Post by Tigardbeav on Sept 21, 2020 19:50:40 GMT -8
Ha-ha, good point and I agree with all of that. However, the analytics guys tell you the sac-bunt is a terrible play and the hit and run is only slightly better in most situations. These guys all start with the premise that Pat Casey articulated frequently, you only have 27 outs and what you gain in exchange for giving up an out has to statistically be of greater value. They use a probability matrix called the Markov Model to calculate the %'s. Casey had our guys bunting all the time iirc Madrigal bunted 4 straight times for hits in a playoff game
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Post by mallardhunter on Sept 22, 2020 11:05:23 GMT -8
Weird to think the MLB thinks both Madrigal and Conforto are #2 batters (that's where I've seen Conforto batting most often of late) They don’t. White Sox gave Moncada a rest. Nick will be back in the #9 slot today #2 or #9, same philosophy, Chi-Sox have quietly put together a modern day murderers row and Nick being on-base when those guys are at-bat just means more runs cross the plate. I think it's kind of funny that this is what the Yanks always try to do but they overpay for guys who are too old and are always out injured.
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Post by mbabeav on Sept 22, 2020 11:43:09 GMT -8
They don’t. White Sox gave Moncada a rest. Nick will be back in the #9 slot today #2 or #9, same philosophy, Chi-Sox have quietly put together a modern day murderers row and Nick being on-base when those guys are at-bat just means more runs cross the plate. I think it's kind of funny that this is what the Yanks always try to do but they overpay for guys who are too old and are always out injured. Judge (especially) and Stanton are not old guys, but they sure are hurt a lot.
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Post by zeroposter on Sept 22, 2020 11:43:57 GMT -8
Casey had our guys bunting all the time iirc Madrigal bunted 4 straight times for hits in a playoff game Madrigal did bunt those 4 times or 5 times, but that was simply and totally because his wrist was not healthy. Risked big bucks by returning early.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Sept 22, 2020 13:26:35 GMT -8
iirc Madrigal bunted 4 straight times for hits in a playoff game Madrigal did bunt those 4 times or 5 times, but that was simply and totally because his wrist was not healthy. Risked big bucks by returning early. 2017 Regional Final, Drew Rasmussen's final start. Entering the game, Nick Madrigal was dealing with a bone bruise. He had gone 2/15 over the previous six games, sitting out two and coming on as a pinch hitter in another. Rasmussen gave up a single and double to start the game, which put Yale up 1-0 early. Kwan walked to start things off, and Madrigal hit a bunt single. After Anderson bunted the pair over, Larnach drove in Kwan with a ground ball to short to tie the game at one. The top of the order came up again in the third. Kwan hit a bunt single, as did Madrigal. Larnach reached on a two-base error, which scored Kwan, 2-1 Oregon State. Rutschman hit a ground ball to third. The third baseman tried to look Madrigal back, but Madrigal bounced around to get inside the third-baseman's head, which worked. The third baseman pulled the first baseman off, which allowed Rutschman to reach and Madrigal to score. 3-1 Oregon State. Gretler hit a two-out shot to left to score both Larnach and Rutschman, 6-1 Oregon State. Grenier reached, which brought Kwan back up to start the fourth inning. Kwan flew out to left, which was the lone time that Yale got Kwan out. Madrigal reached on a bunt. Anderson struck out, and Rutschman flew out to center to end the threat. Rasmussen was hurt, so he was pulled after 73 pitches in favor of Eisert, who picked up the win. Rasmussen would be out for 13 days before being asked to save Game 1 of the College World Series against Cal State Fullerton. (Two strikeouts and a fly out in a perfect ninth to put Oregon State in the Winners' Bracket.) Rasmussen also pitched his final game for Oregon State in Omaha, relieving Eisert in Oregon State's final game in Omaha in 2017 against LSU. Eisert threw 3 2/3 innings of shutout baseball to pick up the win against Yale. Madrigal walked with two outs in the fifth on seven pitches, but Anderson grounded out to second to end the inning. Madrigal hit his fourth and final bunt single in the seventh, but Rutschman grounded out with the bases loaded to end the inning. 4/4 all on bunts and with a seven-pitch walk as the cherry on top. Madrigal picked up a putout, covering first. Otherwise, the ball was not hit his way. Madrigal went 8/16 over the next four games. He then crashed in the final two losses to LSU, going 0/5.
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Post by chinmusic on Sept 22, 2020 20:14:46 GMT -8
Couple of points from the peanut gallery.
1. Absolutely nothing wrong with bunting for a base hit. Giving up an out sacrificing a runner to second is an entirely different matter in 90+ % of the game situations that arise. 2. The mountains of data the Sabermetric honks have processed over the past 20 years applies only to MLB. The college game is a different animal. There are are a couple of situations that offer a near 50% chance of executing the hit and run safely, but the sac bunt falls into the same category as giving up the intentional base on balls - statistically, a poor decision. 3. Any MLB Analytics Department will tell you, Batting orders are important, but only because people think they are important. Their belief is to build the order sequentially using OBP or SLG, or a weighted combination of both. Your best OBP leads off, your second best hits #2, and on down to 9. The data tells them stacking your best offensive performers in sequence will produce the greatest number of runs over the course of a season. The ideal lineup, whatever that is, will have no more than 1.5 additional wins over 162 game season. The impact of any batting order combination is minimal. I heard comments last year about McGarry hitting second in our order but remember, MC is a product of the data driven Mariner organization. He's a true believer. For old-school guys, this is blasphemy but the data supports it and you find yourself defending your myths against the facts.
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Post by ag87 on Sept 22, 2020 20:46:29 GMT -8
Your point #2, I agree completely. MLB 3rd baseman have thousands of reps of bare handing the bunt and throwing across their body just like Fred Astaire dancing with an umbrella in the rain. D1 3rd baseman are there because they were high school shortstops who couldn't play the position defensively at a higher level.
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