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Post by RenoBeaver on Jul 12, 2020 18:26:03 GMT -8
Closing schools, shutting down sports,etc, is a tough call that nobody want to make. As of July 8th 156 kids between the ages of 5 and 25 have died of Covid, and from what hit the news it seems most of them have pre-existing conditions that would make them susceptible to passing away if they catch it. When you look at the numbers of school aged kids who pass away any given year (2015 for example) and we've never shut down schools or sports programs it might give some people a bit of pause on what it the best way to proceed. 1- you are only focusing on deaths. over and over again on this website alone, and pretty much every other discussion about the pandemic, people are taking into illnesses too. potentially serious illnesses with no known long term effects. 2- it's not only about the players (school aged kids) but coaches, teachers, support staff, etc. 3- no we don't shut down sports for accidents, suicides, homicides, cancer, heart disease, liver disease, diabetes, HIV, etc. For the most part those causes of death/illness not avoidable. I'm not arguing for or against shutting down sports. Just some counterpoints to consider. This is one of those posts that should be a cut and paste meme Standing O for Glove Edit: For additional reference www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article244174732.html
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Post by atownbeaver on Jul 12, 2020 21:45:32 GMT -8
Closing schools, shutting down sports,etc, is a tough call that nobody want to make. As of July 8th 156 kids between the ages of 5 and 25 have died of Covid, and from what hit the news it seems most of them have pre-existing conditions that would make them susceptible to passing away if they catch it. When you look at the numbers of school aged kids who pass away any given year (2015 for example) and we've never shut down schools or sports programs it might give some people a bit of pause on what it the best way to proceed. 1- you are only focusing on deaths. over and over again on this website alone, and pretty much every other discussion about the pandemic, people are taking into illnesses too. potentially serious illnesses with no known long term effects. 2- it's not only about the players (school aged kids) but coaches, teachers, support staff, etc. 3- no we don't shut down sports for accidents, suicides, homicides, cancer, heart disease, liver disease, diabetes, HIV, etc. For the most part those causes of death/illness not avoidable. I'm not arguing for or against shutting down sports. Just some counterpoints to consider. just to double down on your points: 1. exactly. it seems to be in peoples heads that if you don't die, you are perfectly fine. The one person I know personally who got it, with a positive test an all, was only "sick" for about 5 days, never had to go to the hospital. just felt like crap with a high fever for a week straight. But it has been close to a month now and he still can't walk to his mail box without being completely winded and having a coughing fit. dude has more or less been on asthma steroid for weeks, just to do the minimum every day. Guy is 42 years old. not like he is some 80 year nursing home patient either. He has even had a clear negative test since. More and more evidence is pointing the the serious cardiovascular issues it is causing. blood clots in particular, causing severe organ damage. and the end of the day, nobody should be rolling the dice on this one. 2. In terms of sports and school, it ain't the kids I am worried about. I am married to a teacher... 3. accidents, suicides, murders, etc ain't contagious. Not just the idea of they are unavoidable (debatable even, to some degree) it is one does not readily spread to another.
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Post by pitbeavs on Jul 12, 2020 22:03:12 GMT -8
Closing schools, shutting down sports,etc, is a tough call that nobody want to make. As of July 8th 156 kids between the ages of 5 and 25 have died of Covid, and from what hit the news it seems most of them have pre-existing conditions that would make them susceptible to passing away if they catch it. When you look at the numbers of school aged kids who pass away any given year (2015 for example) and we've never shut down schools or sports programs it might give some people a bit of pause on what it the best way to proceed. Firstly, a .02 mortality rate translate to over 15K dead kids. Whose kids are you willing to sacrifice? Secondly, children, take the bug home -- unknowingly -- to parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, neighbors, etc. An average 2% mortality would kill 6.7 million. That number doesn't include the survivors who would suffer long term disabilities -- damage to organs, lungs, and brains. Whose kids? Parents? Grandparents? Uncles? Aunts?
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Post by pitbeavs on Jul 12, 2020 22:14:23 GMT -8
Closing schools, shutting down sports,etc, is a tough call that nobody want to make. As of July 8th 156 kids between the ages of 5 and 25 have died of Covid, and from what hit the news it seems most of them have pre-existing conditions that would make them susceptible to passing away if they catch it. When you look at the numbers of school aged kids who pass away any given year (2015 for example) and we've never shut down schools or sports programs it might give some people a bit of pause on what it the best way to proceed. How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the US? “There are two problems with this question. It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead. Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once. The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right? What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies: 19 more require hospitalization. 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. 10 will have permanent lung damage. 3 will have strokes. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: 3,282,000 people dead. 62,358,000 hospitalized. 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. 9,846,000 people with strokes. 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function. That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get. The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.” ~Author Unknown
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Jul 12, 2020 22:44:43 GMT -8
Closing schools, shutting down sports,etc, is a tough call that nobody want to make. As of July 8th 156 kids between the ages of 5 and 25 have died of Covid, and from what hit the news it seems most of them have pre-existing conditions that would make them susceptible to passing away if they catch it. When you look at the numbers of school aged kids who pass away any given year (2015 for example) and we've never shut down schools or sports programs it might give some people a bit of pause on what it the best way to proceed. Firstly, a .02 mortality rate translate to over 15K dead kids. Whose kids are you willing to sacrifice? Secondly, children, take the bug home -- unknowingly -- to parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, neighbors, etc. An average 2% mortality would kill 6.7 million. That number doesn't include the survivors who would suffer long term disabilities -- damage to organs, lungs, and brains. Whose kids? Parents? Grandparents? Uncles? Aunts? First, you are assuming EVERYONE gets Covid to come up with the numbers you bring up. Herd immunity likely will keep those total numbers from happening, if it doesn't I'll likely be dead. I'm taking it seriously, I don't want it, I don't want anyone to get it. I'm doing my part, staying home, wearing a mask in public, changing a bunch of habits, got no problem with it. I don't even have a problem with there being no fall sports. I just think there's a lot of people making a huge deal out of this while ignoring bigger deals we've been facing for years. I think we need to do everything we can to stop it now. At some point though, we need to get real, it'll be here to the tune of several 100k deaths a year unless we get a workable vaccine or everyone cooperates and uses the methods we have to lower the numbers. It ain't happening right now. There is so much we don't know about the long term effects of this disease. It could be the worst health crisis of our lifetimes, and the shutdown was a great idea. At some point though if a vaccine isn't found people are either going to have to suck it up and cooperate on masks and social distancing or decide to live with deaths and health issues and go on as we have before this. Most cases of heart disease, diabetes and many cancers are considered to be the result of lifestyle choices. I find it kind of surprising people are so concerned about this without being overly concerned about so many other problems (many of which are shown to make a Covid outcome substantially worse) we have these days.
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 12, 2020 22:45:45 GMT -8
Closing schools, shutting down sports,etc, is a tough call that nobody want to make. As of July 8th 156 kids between the ages of 5 and 25 have died of Covid, and from what hit the news it seems most of them have pre-existing conditions that would make them susceptible to passing away if they catch it. When you look at the numbers of school aged kids who pass away any given year (2015 for example) and we've never shut down schools or sports programs it might give some people a bit of pause on what it the best way to proceed. How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the US? “There are two problems with this question. It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead. Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once. The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right? What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies: 19 more require hospitalization. 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. 10 will have permanent lung damage. 3 will have strokes. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: 3,282,000 people dead. 62,358,000 hospitalized. 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. 9,846,000 people with strokes. 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function. That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get. The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.” ~Author Unknown The post itself starts with a flawed premise of 1%. The number currently is 0.4%. Herd immunity should kick in at around 60-70%, so a true worst case death rate would be between 0.2% and 0.3%, closer to 0.3%, if we are doing worst case. Using the numbers above, the final death toll would be 918,960. The rest of the numbers are completely made up. The hospitalization rate is closer to 2.58:1 than 19:1. And the other numbers seem to be even more dubious. Where is anything to support this?
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jul 12, 2020 22:59:22 GMT -8
1- you are only focusing on deaths. over and over again on this website alone, and pretty much every other discussion about the pandemic, people are taking into illnesses too. potentially serious illnesses with no known long term effects. 2- it's not only about the players (school aged kids) but coaches, teachers, support staff, etc. 3- no we don't shut down sports for accidents, suicides, homicides, cancer, heart disease, liver disease, diabetes, HIV, etc. For the most part those causes of death/illness not avoidable. I'm not arguing for or against shutting down sports. Just some counterpoints to consider. just to double down on your points: 1. exactly. it seems to be in peoples heads that if you don't die, you are perfectly fine. The one person I know personally who got it, with a positive test an all, was only "sick" for about 5 days, never had to go to the hospital. just felt like crap with a high fever for a week straight. But it has been close to a month now and he still can't walk to his mail box without being completely winded and having a coughing fit. dude has more or less been on asthma steroid for weeks, just to do the minimum every day. Guy is 42 years old. not like he is some 80 year nursing home patient either. He has even had a clear negative test since. More and more evidence is pointing the the serious cardiovascular issues it is causing. blood clots in particular, causing severe organ damage. and the end of the day, nobody should be rolling the dice on this one. 2. In terms of sports and school, it ain't the kids I am worried about. I am married to a teacher... 3. accidents, suicides, murders, etc ain't contagious. Not just the idea of they are unavoidable (debatable even, to some degree) it is one does not readily spread to another. 2. I have yet to see anyone get coronavirus from a child, but I do not doubt that it is possible, no matter how unlikely. Education is going to be a problem moving forward. 3. Murders and suicides are contagious. The suicide rates shoots up especially after a famous person commits suicide. It also shoots up locally, when an individual dies in a publicized suicide. Copycat suicides are a thing. Copycat murders are a thing. Murder is also contagious. Violence, whether it is against oneself or against others, is generally contagious.
Accidents generally are not contagious. In fact, the opposite tends to be true. Accidents cause greater safety measures taken by individuals and society at large. There is much that can be done to try and forestall accidents, murders, and suicides. However, I can leave it at that.
1. As for anecdotal evidence, my 45-year-old asthmatic cousin had coronavirus. He said that it was awful for eight hours and that he feels great after those eight hours ended. His younger fiance gave him crap for not kicking coronavirus earlier. She also had the disease and was sick for approximately two hours before recovering.
The two elderly priests at my Church both had coronavirus and both recovered with no lingering effects.
Coronavirus may have some terrible long-term consequences for some people, but such instances appear to me to be the exception rather than the rule.
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Post by TheGlove on Jul 13, 2020 6:53:54 GMT -8
just to double down on your points: 1. exactly. it seems to be in peoples heads that if you don't die, you are perfectly fine. The one person I know personally who got it, with a positive test an all, was only "sick" for about 5 days, never had to go to the hospital. just felt like crap with a high fever for a week straight. But it has been close to a month now and he still can't walk to his mail box without being completely winded and having a coughing fit. dude has more or less been on asthma steroid for weeks, just to do the minimum every day. Guy is 42 years old. not like he is some 80 year nursing home patient either. He has even had a clear negative test since. More and more evidence is pointing the the serious cardiovascular issues it is causing. blood clots in particular, causing severe organ damage. and the end of the day, nobody should be rolling the dice on this one. 2. In terms of sports and school, it ain't the kids I am worried about. I am married to a teacher... 3. accidents, suicides, murders, etc ain't contagious. Not just the idea of they are unavoidable (debatable even, to some degree) it is one does not readily spread to another. 2. I have yet to see anyone get coronavirus from a child, but I do not doubt that it is possible, no matter how unlikely. Education is going to be a problem moving forward. 3. Murders and suicides are contagious. The suicide rates shoots up especially after a famous person commits suicide. It also shoots up locally, when an individual dies in a publicized suicide. Copycat suicides are a thing. Copycat murders are a thing. Murder is also contagious. Violence, whether it is against oneself or against others, is generally contagious.
Accidents generally are not contagious. In fact, the opposite tends to be true. Accidents cause greater safety measures taken by individuals and society at large. There is much that can be done to try and forestall accidents, murders, and suicides. However, I can leave it at that.
1. As for anecdotal evidence, my 45-year-old asthmatic cousin had coronavirus. He said that it was awful for eight hours and that he feels great after those eight hours ended. His younger fiance gave him crap for not kicking coronavirus earlier. She also had the disease and was sick for approximately two hours before recovering.
The two elderly priests at my Church both had coronavirus and both recovered with no lingering effects.
Coronavirus may have some terrible long-term consequences for some people, but such instances appear to me to be the exception rather than the rule.I hope those you know who've had it are OK, but isn't it a bit too early to know if they have any long term health consequences?
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Post by TheGlove on Jul 13, 2020 6:56:44 GMT -8
The guy I know that had it was in his mid-40s and an ER doc in Kirkland, WA. Very healthy, former footballer at Northwestern. Died a couple times. A couple months in ICU on a ECMO. No biggie I guess.
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Post by lebaneaver on Jul 13, 2020 8:12:21 GMT -8
The guy I know that had it was in his mid-40s and an ER doc in Kirkland, WA. Very healthy, former footballer at Northwestern. Died a couple times. A couple months in ICU on a ECMO. No biggie I guess. Damn.
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Post by pitbeavs on Jul 13, 2020 8:23:45 GMT -8
How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the US? “There are two problems with this question. It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead. Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once. The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right? What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies: 19 more require hospitalization. 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. 10 will have permanent lung damage. 3 will have strokes. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: 3,282,000 people dead. 62,358,000 hospitalized. 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. 9,846,000 people with strokes. 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function. That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get. The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.” ~Author Unknown The post itself starts with a flawed premise of 1%. The number currently is 0.4%. Herd immunity should kick in at around 60-70%, so a true worst case death rate would be between 0.2% and 0.3%, closer to 0.3%, if we are doing worst case. Using the numbers above, the final death toll would be 918,960. The rest of the numbers are completely made up. The hospitalization rate is closer to 2.58:1 than 19:1. And the other numbers seem to be even more dubious. Where is anything to support this? So ... you demand sources to substantiate my stats, but offer none for your own. Interesting.
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Post by ag87 on Jul 13, 2020 8:27:47 GMT -8
just to double down on your points: 1. exactly. it seems to be in peoples heads that if you don't die, you are perfectly fine. The one person I know personally who got it, with a positive test an all, was only "sick" for about 5 days, never had to go to the hospital. just felt like crap with a high fever for a week straight. But it has been close to a month now and he still can't walk to his mail box without being completely winded and having a coughing fit. dude has more or less been on asthma steroid for weeks, just to do the minimum every day. Guy is 42 years old. not like he is some 80 year nursing home patient either. He has even had a clear negative test since. More and more evidence is pointing the the serious cardiovascular issues it is causing. blood clots in particular, causing severe organ damage. and the end of the day, nobody should be rolling the dice on this one. 2. In terms of sports and school, it ain't the kids I am worried about. I am married to a teacher... 3. accidents, suicides, murders, etc ain't contagious. Not just the idea of they are unavoidable (debatable even, to some degree) it is one does not readily spread to another. 2. I have yet to see anyone get coronavirus from a child, but I do not doubt that it is possible, no matter how unlikely. Education is going to be a problem moving forward. 3. Murders and suicides are contagious. The suicide rates shoots up especially after a famous person commits suicide. It also shoots up locally, when an individual dies in a publicized suicide. Copycat suicides are a thing. Copycat murders are a thing. Murder is also contagious. Violence, whether it is against oneself or against others, is generally contagious.
Accidents generally are not contagious. In fact, the opposite tends to be true. Accidents cause greater safety measures taken by individuals and society at large. There is much that can be done to try and forestall accidents, murders, and suicides. However, I can leave it at that.
1. As for anecdotal evidence, my 45-year-old asthmatic cousin had coronavirus. He said that it was awful for eight hours and that he feels great after those eight hours ended. His younger fiance gave him crap for not kicking coronavirus earlier. She also had the disease and was sick for approximately two hours before recovering.
The two elderly priests at my Church both had coronavirus and both recovered with no lingering effects.
Coronavirus may have some terrible long-term consequences for some people, but such instances appear to me to be the exception rather than the rule. Atlanta's mayor caught covid19 from her asymptomatic child
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Post by sagebrush on Jul 13, 2020 8:58:42 GMT -8
Leb is indeed middle of the road. I, being a Sweet Home grad, thinks that Leb, being where he is from, automatically makes him a POS, is still a good guy. When we disagree, we disagree agreeably. Decades ago, we had a sign that said to flush your toilets often because Lebanon needs the water. I still owe him a short case of beer and was looking forward to paying it off and helping him drink it. Leb, sooner or later, I will pay it off. Not this year, but, the good Lord willing, next year. BTW, if you are ever in Central Oregon, leave me a message and we will get together and I will have it for you. mrs sage still can't get out and about, but you are always welcome in my home.
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Post by TheGlove on Jul 13, 2020 9:01:19 GMT -8
Ladies- first and last warning, keep it clean with regards to the political finger-pointing and rants.
I'm trying to work a full time job, raise a family, and keep you turds in line.
It takes me a lot less time to ban a poster compared to cleaning up threads.
I try to be fair.
But sometimes, you know, s%#t happens.
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Post by pitbeavs on Jul 13, 2020 9:07:52 GMT -8
How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the US? “There are two problems with this question. It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead. Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once. The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right? What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies: 19 more require hospitalization. 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. 10 will have permanent lung damage. 3 will have strokes. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: 3,282,000 people dead. 62,358,000 hospitalized. 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. 9,846,000 people with strokes. 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function. That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get. The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.” ~Author Unknown The post itself starts with a flawed premise of 1%. The number currently is 0.4%. Herd immunity should kick in at around 60-70%, so a true worst case death rate would be between 0.2% and 0.3%, closer to 0.3%, if we are doing worst case. Using the numbers above, the final death toll would be 918,960. The rest of the numbers are completely made up. The hospitalization rate is closer to 2.58:1 than 19:1. And the other numbers seem to be even more dubious. Where is anything to support this? I am unsure whether this was the source of that data. But here ...
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