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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2020 17:39:29 GMT -8
I am going to try really hard to keep this response from turning overly political and derailing the thread, but I gotta say what I gotta say. The lack of definitive and accurate information about COVID, and the lack of preparation, were the most significant factors in our response and the economic impact of the pandemic. While a myriad of factors are at play most of it boils down to one undeniable truth. The US of A failed to prepare itself from the inevitable, despite having 2-3 months to get ready. There is only one place to point to for that, and that is all I am going to say on the matter. The reality we are coming to as life is going on, as places are reopening, is with better data we are seeing a different picture of the disease. I want to stress it is still a dangerous disease, but some of the very scary stats it came with a couple months ago aren't nearly as bad. The list of those significantly at risk is narrowing to those with heart conditions (hypertension most importantly) and diabetes along with preexisting respiratory issues. As we our testing grows and we find more and more cases, yet hospitalizations are not growing, but in fact have fallen significantly to a steady state. Better preparation and better data likely would of made our remediation for the disease less disruptive. We wouldn't of had to focus a response of keeping hospitals below capacity, we wouldn't of had to shutdown a large portion of our health care system to preserve PPE (that was the major reason. to save masks and gowns, NOT to necessarily limit spread). For better or for worse, the US decided it was pretty over this COVID thing and started testing the waters, and so far it appears the world has not collapsed. It is worth noting that we are in our 11th day of protests in Portland, and there has not been a spike in hospitalizations yet in the region. Mean time to symptoms is still around 4-5 days, it is reasonable to assume if there was going to be a major spike from the protests, we would be seeing it already. We are not (so far, fingers crossed) The outbreaks we are having are workplace related. that is the majority of our new cases. Just recently announced is 61 new cases in the last couple days from a seafood cannery on the coast. When scanning the list of workplace outbreaks it doesn't take much to notice a trend. they are all canneries, warehouses or assembly line type places. all close quarters, all hourly wage labor jobs that fit the mold of "pays good, bad benefits". It is probably not a logic leap to reason many of these places do not have strong sick time policies and many may even have the reputation of firing you if you miss more than a few days. Sick people, that cannot afford to be sick, are coming to work and making other people sick. All of the above is to say, I am not entirely sure the data will shake out to defend cancelling football this year, and I am not sure the data will defend significant reductions in attendance (by that I mean, sub 50% capacity, lets be real, OSU is already running 75-80% capacity every game...thanks Anderpants...) Would I be surprised to see fans donning Orange masks? no, and I would encourage it. Would I be surprised to see some measure of limiting congregation? no, and I also would encourage it. Would I be surprised if OSU put limits on tailgating? no, and (don't hit me) I would probably encourage that too. But I would, right now, find it hard to justify calling the whole thing off. I think at the end of the day, the Governor knows what is at stake. The money situation is dire. the Economy is now in the driver seat, with the science in the backseat, yelling out that they are going too fast and to slow down... Governor is going to be listening more to the driver and to me that means football is played and likely with most of the fans. Remember, shutting down basketball wasn't her call. Nor was baseball. She didn't have to face the music of being the one stopping the events. With the NCAA and the Pac-12 more or less full steam ahead, she WOULD be the bottom line responsible party if football is disrupted. I am not sure she is a brave enough politician for that. The governor is a puppet of uncle phil and she won’t miss a duck game. All you have to do is read her comments on olive. No worries with thousands allowed to mass protest Covid will not prevent college football from being played with some superficial precautions and at least 25 percent capacity maybe more if the cases fall significantly. Protect the elderly in long term care facilities. Others who are at high risk and and their families can make an informed choice as to whether they wish to take the risk just like they did with the mass protests. People need to get on with their lives and we need to move beyond control of our daily activities by one individual and the so called experts that have been wrong at about every turn throughout this pandemic. So enjoy If your lucky enough to meet the criteria that the school comes up with to let you attend the games because they will happen and 10 to 15 thousand fans will be pissed that they were shut out. will not prevent college football from raking place |
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Jun 8, 2020 17:53:33 GMT -8
Seems to me the WHO has been pretty quick to accept “studies” and findings that later turned out not to pan out. Not that I can’t trust them, but they have not had the best record for accuracy in this pandemic. |
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Post by NativeBeav on Jun 8, 2020 18:14:51 GMT -8
I am going to try really hard to keep this response from turning overly political and derailing the thread, but I gotta say what I gotta say. The lack of definitive and accurate information about COVID, and the lack of preparation, were the most significant factors in our response and the economic impact of the pandemic. While a myriad of factors are at play most of it boils down to one undeniable truth. The US of A failed to prepare itself from the inevitable, despite having 2-3 months to get ready. There is only one place to point to for that, and that is all I am going to say on the matter. As you probably know by now, I really enjoy your posts, and your perspective on life. But I think if we are really being honest, there is plenty of blame to go around for the lack of preparedness and poor response at various levels. I too am working on not making this political.
As has been pointed out elsewhere, we can look at other "emergencies" that have happened in the course of my lifetime, and it is not unusual for leaders to miss the mark. Certain leaders in specific cities and/or states in this crisis pretty much killed thousands by some of their policies. But, I will give them the benefit of the doubt, as long as it appears it was done in ignorance, and was not malicious. |
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 8, 2020 18:26:19 GMT -8
It is trending that 50-60% of COVID is mild to fully asymptomatic. One issue with the outbreak is the steep level of inequity associated with it. When it does take you down, it takes you down hard. |
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 8, 2020 18:27:08 GMT -8
The outbreaks we are having are workplace related. that is the majority of our new cases. Just recently announced is 61 new cases in the last couple days from a seafood cannery on the coast. When scanning the list of workplace outbreaks it doesn't take much to notice a trend. they are all canneries, warehouses or assembly line type places. all close quarters, all hourly wage labor jobs that fit the mold of "pays good, bad benefits". It is probably not a logic leap to reason many of these places do not have strong sick time policies and many may even have the reputation of firing you if you miss more than a few days. Sick people, that cannot afford to be sick, are coming to work and making other people sick. MANY of the cases in workplaces (meat packing plants, etc.) the people are ASYMPTOMATIC.
If you ARE such, are you actually SICK? Not really. Maybe a few will be.
That's why when you hear "spike in new cases, as ...." click-bait headlines you should take it with a HUGE grain of salt (if not a block of salt). About all it REALLY means is more people ARE getting tested, and that's about it.
Hence the bit about hospitalizations falling and holding at a steady, low state. |
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Post by oldbeav on Jun 8, 2020 19:03:22 GMT -8
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Post by spudbeaver on Jun 8, 2020 20:10:03 GMT -8
Cited much earlier in the thread FYI. |
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Post by spudbeaver on Jun 8, 2020 20:12:08 GMT -8
Seems to me the WHO has been pretty quick to accept “studies” and findings that later turned out not to pan out. Not that I can’t trust them, but they have not had the best record for accuracy in this pandemic. Who hasn’t? Then Who has? |
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Post by spudbeaver on Jun 8, 2020 20:12:53 GMT -8
Not buying THESE numbers, whatsoever! Everyone is a predictor after the fact, right? |
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Post by mbabeav on Jun 8, 2020 20:29:46 GMT -8
We've all become info-mercial trained epidemiologists. And we all point to one thing or another in blame. But how many would have died without modern medicine vs. The last great pandemic 100 years ago, and without modern nutrition and people knowing the needed to quarantine? And how ready are we really if this does come in another wave when fall starts to force us back indoors. It's a rollercoaster ride and I hate those things.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2020 20:49:06 GMT -8
If they're playing, I will 100% be there. If the fan next to me is sickly, IDGAF.
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 8, 2020 21:13:48 GMT -8
Not buying THESE numbers, whatsoever! Honestly, not that implausible. If you buy the current going mortality rate of 0.5% or so, the napkin math indicates the US has 22 million cases. (we are reporting around 2M confirmed cases). It jives with multiple other models that are estimating 60-70% reduction in cases due to social distancing. This includes Oregon's own modelling, which is contracted out to a firm from Washington (state). There is no black magic in their models, it is as standard as they come in the epi world, I have looked at them a lot. It also jives with the case hospitalization rate hovering around 12%. that gives you napkin math of around 17 million cases. Again, jiving with the idea of a 60-70% reduction. If you believe shutting down and staying inside cut infections by 2/3rds, than nationwide the math is not unreasonable. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 8, 2020 21:22:08 GMT -8
I am going to try really hard to keep this response from turning overly political and derailing the thread, but I gotta say what I gotta say. The lack of definitive and accurate information about COVID, and the lack of preparation, were the most significant factors in our response and the economic impact of the pandemic. While a myriad of factors are at play most of it boils down to one undeniable truth. The US of A failed to prepare itself from the inevitable, despite having 2-3 months to get ready. There is only one place to point to for that, and that is all I am going to say on the matter. The reality we are coming to as life is going on, as places are reopening, is with better data we are seeing a different picture of the disease. I want to stress it is still a dangerous disease, but some of the very scary stats it came with a couple months ago aren't nearly as bad. The list of those significantly at risk is narrowing to those with heart conditions (hypertension most importantly) and diabetes along with preexisting respiratory issues. As we our testing grows and we find more and more cases, yet hospitalizations are not growing, but in fact have fallen significantly to a steady state. Better preparation and better data likely would of made our remediation for the disease less disruptive. We wouldn't of had to focus a response of keeping hospitals below capacity, we wouldn't of had to shutdown a large portion of our health care system to preserve PPE (that was the major reason. to save masks and gowns, NOT to necessarily limit spread). For better or for worse, the US decided it was pretty over this COVID thing and started testing the waters, and so far it appears the world has not collapsed. It is worth noting that we are in our 11th day of protests in Portland, and there has not been a spike in hospitalizations yet in the region. Mean time to symptoms is still around 4-5 days, it is reasonable to assume if there was going to be a major spike from the protests, we would be seeing it already. We are not (so far, fingers crossed) The outbreaks we are having are workplace related. that is the majority of our new cases. Just recently announced is 61 new cases in the last couple days from a seafood cannery on the coast. When scanning the list of workplace outbreaks it doesn't take much to notice a trend. they are all canneries, warehouses or assembly line type places. all close quarters, all hourly wage labor jobs that fit the mold of "pays good, bad benefits". It is probably not a logic leap to reason many of these places do not have strong sick time policies and many may even have the reputation of firing you if you miss more than a few days. Sick people, that cannot afford to be sick, are coming to work and making other people sick. All of the above is to say, I am not entirely sure the data will shake out to defend cancelling football this year, and I am not sure the data will defend significant reductions in attendance (by that I mean, sub 50% capacity, lets be real, OSU is already running 75-80% capacity every game...thanks Anderpants...) Would I be surprised to see fans donning Orange masks? no, and I would encourage it. Would I be surprised to see some measure of limiting congregation? no, and I also would encourage it. Would I be surprised if OSU put limits on tailgating? no, and (don't hit me) I would probably encourage that too. But I would, right now, find it hard to justify calling the whole thing off. I think at the end of the day, the Governor knows what is at stake. The money situation is dire. the Economy is now in the driver seat, with the science in the backseat, yelling out that they are going too fast and to slow down... Governor is going to be listening more to the driver and to me that means football is played and likely with most of the fans. Remember, shutting down basketball wasn't her call. Nor was baseball. She didn't have to face the music of being the one stopping the events. With the NCAA and the Pac-12 more or less full steam ahead, she WOULD be the bottom line responsible party if football is disrupted. I am not sure she is a brave enough politician for that. Good stuff by and large. Still, when were those 2-3 months? |
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Post by atownbeaver on Jun 8, 2020 21:40:41 GMT -8
I am going to try really hard to keep this response from turning overly political and derailing the thread, but I gotta say what I gotta say. The lack of definitive and accurate information about COVID, and the lack of preparation, were the most significant factors in our response and the economic impact of the pandemic. While a myriad of factors are at play most of it boils down to one undeniable truth. The US of A failed to prepare itself from the inevitable, despite having 2-3 months to get ready. There is only one place to point to for that, and that is all I am going to say on the matter. As you probably know by now, I really enjoy your posts, and your perspective on life. But I think if we are really being honest, there is plenty of blame to go around for the lack of preparedness and poor response at various levels. I too am working on not making this political.
As has been pointed out elsewhere, we can look at other "emergencies" that have happened in the course of my lifetime, and it is not unusual for leaders to miss the mark. Certain leaders in specific cities and/or states in this crisis pretty much killed thousands by some of their policies. But, I will give them the benefit of the doubt, as long as it appears it was done in ignorance, and was not malicious. The only other thing I will add here is my opinion is not colored by any general feelings of approval or disapproval for any leader including Trump. It is colored by what I know should of happened, what I know is commonly taught and drilled and planned to do, the systems that were put in place over years to be ready for an event like this. I do agree that any leader could of failed to do these things and indeed other powerful leaders in this country failed to adequately prepare as well. Though some were quicker to the party than others. Like I have said before, I do have a MPH in Epi. even though I don't currently work as one. But I also worked at a county health department before my state job, and specifically did a lot of work with emergency preparedness. I have had formal IC training, and have worked on issues of planning for all kinds of events, mostly of the pandemic kind but other mass casualty type things, and mostly around hospital surge planning and capacity planning. Of all the things the country built up from H1N1 in 2008 literally all of it was ignored. It is actually stunning when you size it all up how poorly this went in America. As I have mused before, this will be taught in public health classes for decades to come as examples of what not to do. there were two specific, high profile failures: delayed declaration of emergency and botched supply stockpile and distribution. I can go much more into both if we are bored. |
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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Jun 8, 2020 21:53:05 GMT -8
As you probably know by now, I really enjoy your posts, and your perspective on life. But I think if we are really being honest, there is plenty of blame to go around for the lack of preparedness and poor response at various levels. I too am working on not making this political.
As has been pointed out elsewhere, we can look at other "emergencies" that have happened in the course of my lifetime, and it is not unusual for leaders to miss the mark. Certain leaders in specific cities and/or states in this crisis pretty much killed thousands by some of their policies. But, I will give them the benefit of the doubt, as long as it appears it was done in ignorance, and was not malicious. The only other thing I will add here is my opinion is not colored by any general feelings of approval or disapproval for any leader including Trump. It is colored by what I know should of happened, what I know is commonly taught and drilled and planned to do, the systems that were put in place over years to be ready for an event like this. I do agree that any leader could of failed to do these things and indeed other powerful leaders in this country failed to adequately prepare as well. Though some were quicker to the party than others. Like I have said before, I do have a MPH in Epi. even though I don't currently work as one. But I also worked at a county health department before my state job, and specifically did a lot of work with emergency preparedness. I have had formal IC training, and have worked on issues of planning for all kinds of events, mostly of the pandemic kind but other mass casualty type things, and mostly around hospital surge planning and capacity planning. Of all the things the country built up from H1N1 in 2008 literally all of it was ignored. It is actually stunning when you size it all up how poorly this went in America. As I have mused before, this will be taught in public health classes for decades to come as examples of what not to do. there were two specific, high profile failures: delayed declaration of emergency and botched supply stockpile and distribution. I can go much more into both if we are bored. Delayed declaration of emergency? Two days after the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic, the United States declared an emergency. And the COVID-19 response team had already been in place for 44 days by that point. And to really entertain calling a delayed declaration of emergency a "failure," one would have to totally ignore Congress (especially the House) determining that wasting our money on political theatre was a more worthwhile endeavor than preparing the country for COVID-19. I would entertain a botched supply stockpile and distribution conversation. |
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