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Post by pabeaver on Mar 11, 2020 20:13:10 GMT -8
Seriously though, this is stupid. People who are at risk should be protecting themselves (droplet and contact precautions), but the public at large is just fine and many have had it without even knowing it.
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Post by pabeaver on Mar 11, 2020 20:13:35 GMT -8
This will be just like one of our home games. No fans, Tinkle sisters ... Advantage Beavs! 😁 No other noise/fans will not be to her advantage. Good point
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Post by spudbeaver on Mar 11, 2020 20:15:28 GMT -8
“Only essential staff and limited family to attend Div 1 basketball championships“
The big question is, will Coach Tinkle be able to get in?
Jk
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Post by atownbeaver on Mar 12, 2020 7:48:39 GMT -8
Seriously though, this is stupid. People who are at risk should be protecting themselves (droplet and contact precautions), but the public at large is just fine and many have had it without even knowing it. This is very, very poor advice. People that are not experts in things should shut up and listen to experts. Coronavirus, or if you will, 19nCoV is a disease in the magnitude of H1N1 from a decade ago. It is not the flu, but measures up to the same general virulence as our more serious flu strains (like H1N1). Which means it has the capacity to kill not just the old and weak, but regular joes too. Will it? probably not. But 19nCoV kills by leading to acute viral pneumonia, and acute respiratory failure. that is the mechanism. That can take you out even if you are normally pretty healthy, particularly if we reach a point where you cannot get to the doctor to get on oxygen and take anti-viral medication... The issue is surge capacity. It is correct that the vast majority of people will be fine. but if suddenly even 1% of the population needs to use the hospital, you have exceeded capacity. Right now, in Oregon, there is 60 acute care hospitals that have a combined 6,700 or so available beds. of all our hospitals 33 of them have less than 50 beds. We have a grand total of 3 hospitals with 500 or more beds. That is it. We have over 4 million people in this state. If only 1% of the state needs hospital services, we are f%#*ed hell, if half a percent of them need the hospital, we are f%#*ed. And it is worse than that. Statewide hospitals run about 70% capacity every day. so the true number of available beds, that aren't already taken up by normal everyday activity is more like 1,200. It takes very little for all the hospitals to become overwhelmed, all the capacity is taken up, and those that might of survived have now died. Slowing the progression of this is a necessary and vital response to key those that are at risk, as you noted, safe. Even if 99% of everybody is perfectly fine, our system cannot handle the sudden load, and it will kill thousands because of it. Willfully walking around and infecting others is the height of idiocy, selfishness and irresponsibility. Isolating and slowing the spread of the disease stops it's exponential growth. There is a term in in epidemiology called R0 (R zero). That is the average number of people one contagious person will infect. Early R0 for 19nCoV is between 1.4 and 2.5. Or in other words, a nice easy 2. Each infected person will infect two more people. With an average incubation period of just under a week, you are doubling the number of cases every 5 days. It doesn't look so back if it starts with one.. 1,2,4,8,16,32,64... But the US is starting at dozens. Oregon has 20 confirmed cases, and likely actually hundreds, and we could double the cases every 5ish days. Right now the conservative case mortality rate is about 1%. that means 19nCoV is roughly 10 times as deadly as H1N1 of 2009. Of course early case mortality rates are always biased towards death, it is starting off quite high... it will drop as more cases are confirmed, but the overall point remains. We do not have enough hospital beds to treat everybody at risk. period. Do not go make the problem worse.
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Post by beaverinohio on Mar 12, 2020 7:52:44 GMT -8
Seriously though, this is stupid. People who are at risk should be protecting themselves (droplet and contact precautions), but the public at large is just fine and many have had it without even knowing it. This is very, very poor advice. People that are not experts in things should shut up and listen to experts. Coronavirus, or if you will, 19nCoV is a disease in the magnitude of H1N1 from a decade ago. It is not the flu, but measures up to the same general virulence as our more serious flu strains (like H1N1). Which means it has the capacity to kill not just the old and weak, but regular joes too. Will it? probably not. But 19nCoV kills by leading to acute viral pneumonia, and acute respiratory failure. that is the mechanism. That can take you out even if you are normally pretty healthy, particularly if we reach a point where you cannot get to the doctor to get on oxygen and take anti-viral medication... The issue is surge capacity. It is correct that the vast majority of people will be fine. but if suddenly even 1% of the population needs to use the hospital, you have exceeded capacity. Right now, in Oregon, there is 60 acute care hospitals that have a combined 6,700 or so available beds. of all our hospitals 33 of them have less than 50 beds. We have a grand total of 3 hospitals with 500 or more beds. That is it. We have over 4 million people in this state. If only 1% of the state needs hospital services, we are f%#*ed hell, if half a percent of them need the hospital, we are f%#*ed. And it is worse than that. Statewide hospitals run about 70% capacity every day. so the true number of available beds, that aren't already taken up by normal everyday activity is more like 1,200. It takes very little for all the hospitals to become overwhelmed, all the capacity is taken up, and those that might of survived have now died. Slowing the progression of this is a necessary and vital response to key those that are at risk, as you noted, safe. Even if 99% of everybody is perfectly fine, our system cannot handle the sudden load, and it will kill thousands because of it. Willfully walking around and infecting others is the height of idiocy, selfishness and irresponsibility. Isolating and slowing the spread of the disease stops it's exponential growth. There is a term in in epidemiology called R0 (R zero). That is the average number of people one contagious person will infect. Early R0 for 19nCoV is between 1.4 and 2.5. Or in other words, a nice easy 2. Each infected person will infect two more people. With an average incubation period of just under a week, you are doubling the number of cases every 5 days. It doesn't look so back if it starts with one.. 1,2,4,8,16,32,64... But the US is starting at dozens. Oregon has 20 confirmed cases, and likely actually hundreds, and we could double the cases every 5ish days. Right now the conservative case mortality rate is about 1%. that means 19nCoV is roughly 10 times as deadly as H1N1 of 2009. Of course early case mortality rates are always biased towards death, it is starting off quite high... it will drop as more cases are confirmed, but the overall point remains. We do not have enough hospital beds to treat everybody at risk. period. Do not go make the problem worse. Well said. All this sucks, but what is being done is the right thing to do. Has Pac 12 canceled tournament yet? Big 10 has.
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Post by nabeav on Mar 12, 2020 8:28:35 GMT -8
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Post by spudbeaver on Mar 12, 2020 8:34:12 GMT -8
It's a conspiracy. The powers were afraid the Beavers would whip the Ducks. Personally, I think this is an overreaction. Hell, they're already there. But what's that really mean? Oregon St Beavers: Pac-12 Co-Champs!!!
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Post by Tigardbeav on Mar 12, 2020 8:39:02 GMT -8
Oregon St Beavers: Pac-12 Co-Champs!!! Hang the Banner!
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Post by atownbeaver on Mar 12, 2020 9:16:26 GMT -8
I just want to add, I am not trying to come off as a smarmy-know-it-all, but I do work for the Oregon Health Authority, I do have a Master's degree in Epidemiology (from our fine Oregon State University herself) and I currently work in hospital policy (hence why I have fun facts about Oregon hospitals at my fingertips). I feel obliged to do what I can to snuff out misinformation, or overall bad advice or misguided views on the situation.
We are in a situation that was grossly exacerbated by extremely poor response at the top, driven mostly by the overall attitude the OP I was responding to displayed. Disregard for what is really at stake, only viewing the pandemic in the lens of if it is dangerous to oneself, or not considering it serious because it isn't some Hollywood movie level of a disease with blood pouring out of various orifices like ebola...
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Post by ag87 on Mar 12, 2020 9:30:51 GMT -8
I just want to add, I am not trying to come off as a smarmy-know-it-all, but I do work for the Oregon Health Authority, I do have a Master's degree in Epidemiology (from our fine Oregon State University herself) and I currently work in hospital policy (hence why I have fun facts about Oregon hospitals at my fingertips). I feel obliged to do what I can to snuff out misinformation, or overall bad advice or misguided views on the situation. We are in a situation that was grossly exacerbated by extremely poor response at the top, driven mostly by the overall attitude the OP I was responding to displayed. Disregard for what is really at stake, only viewing the pandemic in the lens of if it is dangerous to oneself, or not considering it serious because it isn't some Hollywood movie level of a disease with blood pouring out of various orifices like ebola... [br And trying to walk a thin line and not be overtly political, I believe our perceptions on this virus are closely linked to where we watch or listen to our news.
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Post by mbabeav on Mar 12, 2020 9:48:19 GMT -8
I am firmly convinced that this virus has been around for a while - a few months ago my wife got sick and it wasn't like any flu she'd ever had before - if there were enough tests that they could take a controlled sampling, I am betting that a significant percentage of the population has been exposed. I just think that we are way behind the curve on this, either because of what I think is happening, or as atownbeaver said above, the leadership at all levels has failed to keep up.
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Post by Judge Smails on Mar 12, 2020 9:53:30 GMT -8
I am firmly convinced that this virus has been around for a while - a few months ago my wife got sick and it wasn't like any flu she'd ever had before - if there were enough tests that they could take a controlled sampling, I am betting that a significant percentage of the population has been exposed. I just think that we are way behind the curve on this, either because of what I think is happening, or as atownbeaver said above, the leadership at all levels has failed to keep up. They just suspended the rest of the 5A tourney at Gill today.
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Post by Henry Skrimshander on Mar 12, 2020 10:00:34 GMT -8
No other noise/fans will not be to her advantage. Good point I wish all our fans showed up as often, and had the passion, of the Tinkle sisters.
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Post by baseba1111 on Mar 12, 2020 10:14:47 GMT -8
I wish all our fans showed up as often, and had the passion, of the Tinkle sisters. No... just no. Most of what she says isn't "passion" it's plain foul mouthed, bitchy, and thru a greatly orange tinted lens. She has been admonished over the seasons at least three times I know, twice at the request of officials. Three fans asked for their courtside seats to be moved away from her. One sis is awesome the other is a complete bitch on a broomstick. That type of passion is not what OSU needs to be known for. If that's your style, passion at any cost, you enjoy yourself.
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Post by spudbeaver on Mar 12, 2020 10:37:27 GMT -8
So, one vote for no.
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