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Post by wilkyisdashiznit on Feb 10, 2020 13:21:25 GMT -8
Oregon State is currently ranked 67th in the NET rankings, eighth in the Pac-12:
10. Arizona 16. Colorado 25. Oregon 30. Stanford 47. Southern California 54. Arizona State 60. Washington 67. Oregon State 70. Utah 99. UCLA 106. Washington State 151. California
Yesterday, DRatings put out its projections:
14. Oregon (4-seed) 21. Colorado (6-seed) 28. Arizona (7-seed) 40. Stanford (10-seed)
48. USC (First team out. NIT 1-seed) 52. Arizona State (Fifth team out. NIT 2-seed) 62. Oregon State (NIT 5-seed) 67. Utah (NIT 6-seed) 75. UCLA (NIT 8-seed)
Using an S-curve on the DRatings projection, Oregon State would play at SMU in the Utah State bracket. The winner of the Oregon State-SMU game would play the winner of St. Bonaventure-Utah State.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Feb 10, 2020 13:31:51 GMT -8
Amazing to me we're still ranked as high as we are.
As I've said before, with the high quality wins already accrued it just makes you wonder where we'd stand currently if we had just won 2 of the games against the other 7 teams.
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Post by TheGlove on Feb 10, 2020 13:58:24 GMT -8
I just saw some other rankings.
11th in the conference with a 4-7 record.
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Feb 10, 2020 13:59:07 GMT -8
I just saw some other rankings. 11th in the conference with a 4-7 record. With a loss (or more like a thumping) against 2-9 UW.
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Post by baseba1111 on Feb 10, 2020 13:59:23 GMT -8
Amazing to me we're still ranked as high as we are. As I've said before, with the high quality wins already accrued it just makes you wonder where we'd stand currently if we had just won 2 of the games against the other 7 teams. Worse is that if that prognostication is correct, some on here will see the NIT as vindicating WT's successful stint thru year 6.
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Post by nabeav on Feb 10, 2020 14:11:35 GMT -8
Amazing to me we're still ranked as high as we are. As I've said before, with the high quality wins already accrued it just makes you wonder where we'd stand currently if we had just won 2 of the games against the other 7 teams. Worse is that if that prognostication is correct, some on here will see the NIT as vindicating WT's successful stint thru year 6. Yeah, it would suck to play in the NIT. Let's just hope and pray the team plays bad down the stretch and misses it. Better for everyone that way.
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Post by beaverinohio on Feb 10, 2020 14:23:56 GMT -8
Amazing to me we're still ranked as high as we are. As I've said before, with the high quality wins already accrued it just makes you wonder where we'd stand currently if we had just won 2 of the games against the other 7 teams. More amazing to me is that the Beavs have a shot at NIT. But looking at last year's NET, Colorado (66), Xavier (67), Dayton (69), and Providence (70) all got in. Also getting in were Georgetown (82) and Wichita St. (83). All those teams were at least .500 in their conference except for Providence, which was 7-11.
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Post by baseba1111 on Feb 10, 2020 14:25:48 GMT -8
Worse is that if that prognostication is correct, some on here will see the NIT as vindicating WT's successful stint thru year 6. Yeah, it would suck to play in the NIT. Let's just hope and pray the team plays bad down the stretch and misses it. Better for everyone that way. Yeah... that's what my post meant! Lol...
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Post by osubeaver2018 on Feb 10, 2020 14:53:00 GMT -8
Amazing to me we're still ranked as high as we are. As I've said before, with the high quality wins already accrued it just makes you wonder where we'd stand currently if we had just won 2 of the games against the other 7 teams. More amazing to me is that the Beavs have a shot at NIT. But looking at last year's NET, Colorado (66), Xavier (67), Dayton (69), and Providence (70) all got in. Also getting in were Georgetown (82) and Wichita St. (83). All those teams were at least .500 in their conference except for Providence, which was 7-11. Not even just the NIT but there's still games to be played that could continue to bump the NET up to NCAA bubble range even with all the losses already. 4-5 wins to close out the regular season might even bump us up to the 40-60 range if the wins are against the right teams. That's why I'm still amazed we didn't get hit harder, but I guess 4 quadrant 1 wins will help with that. I am not saying that doing that will get us into the NCAAs, and it would take the committee being able to look past a likely subpar conference record (which has happened in the past for OSU and a few teams last year, Oklahoma got in with a 7-11 Big12 record for example). It will still take probably 2 wins in the conference tourney at a minimum, but if they do manage to go 5-2 and win 2 in the tourney that would be 21-12, which is not unheard of for an at-large bid. With a good NET and a decent perception of the conference.... who knows? This is probably all wishful thinking and looking at everything through orange-colored glasses but I haven't given up *yet*. I'd put the odds of the above happening around 5-10% but can see it happening.
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Post by baseba1111 on Feb 10, 2020 15:27:48 GMT -8
More amazing to me is that the Beavs have a shot at NIT. But looking at last year's NET, Colorado (66), Xavier (67), Dayton (69), and Providence (70) all got in. Also getting in were Georgetown (82) and Wichita St. (83). All those teams were at least .500 in their conference except for Providence, which was 7-11. Not even just the NIT but there's still games to be played that could continue to bump the NET up to NCAA bubble range even with all the losses already. 4-5 wins to close out the regular season might even bump us up to the 40-60 range if the wins are against the right teams. That's why I'm still amazed we didn't get hit harder, but I guess 4 quadrant 1 wins will help with that. I am not saying that doing that will get us into the NCAAs, and it would take the committee being able to look past a likely subpar conference record (which has happened in the past for OSU and a few teams last year, Oklahoma got in with a 7-11 Big12 record for example). It will still take probably 2 wins in the conference tourney at a minimum, but if they do manage to go 5-2 and win 2 in the tourney that would be 21-12, which is not unheard of for an at-large bid. With a good NET and a decent perception of the conference.... who knows? This is probably all wishful thinking and orange-colored glasses but I haven't given up *yet*. I'd put the odds of the above happening around 5-10% but can see it happening. The issue with looking at the NET is that it will change. Oklahoma loss might end up being Q2 loss, same with Ute loss if they fall. Leaving less Q1 games. Also the NCAA looks at a team's average NET of wins and losses. OSU Net averages are 172 for teams they have beat (NC and C)and 85 for losses (NC and C). But, the biggest factor is Pac12 placing... no matter the NET, then Pac12 isn't getting 6 teams in (or 5 of the remaining 36 at large). Of course splitting conference tournament champs and regular season champs can hurt that number/chance of more Pac12 teams even worse. For the (9) major conferences, if the tourney champ isn't the regular season champ it oftens means up to 1/4 of the at-large bids could go to those regular season champs. So for team like OSU who may climb to 5th or 6th in regular season standings, the more conference champs that win the tournament the better. In any case right now OSU's Q1 record is offset by a 2-6 record vs Q2 and Q3 teams. So regardless of some movement between the quadrants OSU truly can't afford any more losses to Q2 and Q3 teams. remaining schedule: @zona Q1 game @ ASU Q1 game Utes Q2 game Buffs Q1 game Furd Q2 game (at #30 now but if they lose much before the last weekend they'll drop out of top 30) Cal Q3 game (prob??? if they drop to #161 it'll be a Q4 game) @ucks Q1 game So a Q1 win or two, and NO Q2 or Q3 losses is essential... at least a 4-3 finish going into the Pac12 tourney and at least two wins there to be a "bubble team" dependent on other at-large berths. But, the NIT is also heavily weighted on those auto bids guaranteed and the at-larges not given to the NCAA. I mean a 4th place Pac12 finish and a loss to the 5 seed didn't get an invite last year, although the Pac12 was rated 7th in RPI last year (4th so far this year) and OSU's NET was 87. Still should have been enough at 18-13, 4th in conference, NET in top 100... but!?
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Feb 10, 2020 15:32:47 GMT -8
Last year the team had an NET at 87th, won 18 games and 2 games above .500 in conference and didn't make any kind of tournament. We need a bunch of wins to get in to anything this year.
OOPS, hadn't read Baseba111's post yet.. sorry for the repeat. One thing though, I've heard a lot of complaints about Tinkle only getting to one tournament in 5 seasons, at least there was an admission that last year's performance should have got them into the NIT.
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Post by nabeav on Feb 10, 2020 15:37:26 GMT -8
Yeah, it would suck to play in the NIT. Let's just hope and pray the team plays bad down the stretch and misses it. Better for everyone that way. Yeah... that's what my post meant! Lol... Implied though. We're not firing a coach who makes the NIT. It absolutely would justify keeping him another year. This season has been frustrating in every sense of the word because you see the potential. Are we backsliding? Maybe, but the season hasn't played out yet. Last year we lost five of our last seven. We just went through a stretch where we lost five of seven. Who's to say we just got hit our rough patch at a better time this season? Looking at stats from last year vs. this year on sports-reference - we are averaging the same number of points per game and giving up two points less a game. We have 4 Q1 wins compared to 2 last year. I know there are signs we suck, but there's signs we're actually an improved team as well, despite losing one of the best scorers in school history. I will always lean "keep the coach" until there's no other option. The "he can't recruit" people lost all credibility with me when I see people questioning Scott Rueck's recruiting after losing to Arizona yesterday. Nothing is ever good enough for some people.
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Post by Judge Smails on Feb 10, 2020 15:51:06 GMT -8
Not even just the NIT but there's still games to be played that could continue to bump the NET up to NCAA bubble range even with all the losses already. 4-5 wins to close out the regular season might even bump us up to the 40-60 range if the wins are against the right teams. That's why I'm still amazed we didn't get hit harder, but I guess 4 quadrant 1 wins will help with that. I am not saying that doing that will get us into the NCAAs, and it would take the committee being able to look past a likely subpar conference record (which has happened in the past for OSU and a few teams last year, Oklahoma got in with a 7-11 Big12 record for example). It will still take probably 2 wins in the conference tourney at a minimum, but if they do manage to go 5-2 and win 2 in the tourney that would be 21-12, which is not unheard of for an at-large bid. With a good NET and a decent perception of the conference.... who knows? This is probably all wishful thinking and orange-colored glasses but I haven't given up *yet*. I'd put the odds of the above happening around 5-10% but can see it happening. The issue with looking at the NET is that it will change. Oklahoma loss might end up being Q2 loss, same with Ute loss if they fall. Leaving less Q1 games. Also the NCAA looks at a team's average NET of wins and losses. OSU Net averages are 172 for teams they have beat (NC and C)and 85 for losses (NC and C). But, the biggest factor is Pac12 placing... no matter the NET, then Pac12 isn't getting 6 teams in (or 5 of the remaining 36 at large). Of course splitting conference tournament champs and regular season champs can hurt that number/chance of more Pac12 teams even worse. For the (9) major conferences, if the tourney champ isn't the regular season champ it oftens means up to 1/4 of the at-large bids could go to those regular season champs. So for team like OSU who may climb to 5th or 6th in regular season standings, the more conference champs that win the tournament the better. In any case right now OSU's Q1 record is offset by a 2-6 record vs Q2 and Q3 teams. So regardless of some movement between the quadrants OSU truly can't afford any more losses to Q2 and Q3 teams. remaining schedule: @zona Q1 game @ ASU Q1 game Utes Q2 game Buffs Q1 game Furd Q2 game (at #30 now but if they lose much before the last weekend they'll drop out of top 30) Cal Q3 game (prob??? if they drop to #161 it'll be a Q4 game) @ucks Q1 game So a Q1 win or two, and NO Q2 or Q3 losses is essential... at least a 4-3 finish going into the Pac12 tourney and at least two wins there to be a "bubble team" dependent on other at-large berths. But, the NIT is also heavily weighted on those auto bids guaranteed and the at-larges not given to the NCAA. I mean a 4th place Pac12 finish and a loss to the 5 seed didn't get an invite last year, although the Pac12 was rated 7th in RPI last year (4th so far this year) and OSU's NET was 87. Still should have been enough at 18-13, 4th in conference, NET in top 100... but!? uh oh....now you're admitting I was right.
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Post by ag87 on Feb 10, 2020 16:29:42 GMT -8
I love all this talk about the NIT and potential paths to the NCAA. I'm an optimist and I hope we close the season strong. But watching the games on TV gives me no thoughts that the strong finish may exist. I don't see more than seven conference victories and six is more likely.
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Post by baseba1111 on Feb 10, 2020 17:30:25 GMT -8
Yeah... that's what my post meant! Lol... Implied though. We're not firing a coach who makes the NIT. It absolutely would justify keeping him another year. This season has been frustrating in every sense of the word because you see the potential. Are we backsliding? Maybe, but the season hasn't played out yet. Last year we lost five of our last seven. We just went through a stretch where we lost five of seven. Who's to say we just got hit our rough patch at a better time this season? Looking at stats from last year vs. this year on sports-reference - we are averaging the same number of points per game and giving up two points less a game. We have 4 Q1 wins compared to 2 last year. I know there are signs we suck, but there's signs we're actually an improved team as well, despite losing one of the best scorers in school history. I will always lean "keep the coach" until there's no other option. The "he can't recruit" people lost all credibility with me when I see people questioning Scott Rueck's recruiting after losing to Arizona yesterday. Nothing is ever good enough for some people. Actually not implying. The post was about posters, not WT. Meaning, despite other evidence the supporters will state an NIT bid shows all is well. I'm often chided here because I'm too realistic and not wearing orange tinted goggles. If I wanted to state "fire Wayne Tinkle" I would. But, in my realism he's been given two extensions... both undeserved IMHO... so he's not going anywhere soon. He'll prob get another season even if 2020-21 is below par. The possible NIT is great for the kids, but doesn't change anything about the current state of the program and WT's obvious weaknesses. And, as we saw with last year's team, postseason invites aren't in the control of a coach. The tourney team probably didn't make last year's field. Last year's team prob automatic in this year's NIT field at least with the Pac12 much higher rated. Obviously if a program is a postseason regular fans clamor for more. But, OSU will not be a "regular" with WT at the helm... in my opinion. And... you can't compare stats or Q1 wins, etc to a previous season. Different teams, schedule, and Pac12 was the 7th rated conference. You can go by... currently 11th in the conference and are extremely low in many team stats. You can look at recruiting... take out coaches kids, our overall Pac12 ranking for last 5 classes would be 9th to 11th depending on which rankings. OSU will be 9th or worse in next year's class even if they sign a transfer or two. So again, unless I was fired up on scotch I'm pretty sure you've never read a post of mine that says "fire WT"!
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