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Post by beavheart on Jul 23, 2019 8:21:40 GMT -8
I have to agree. I've not seen much in the way of conference previews, but the few I have seen have the Beavs forecast to finish 9th or 10th. Historically, that means about 5 to 8 conference wins. Unfortunately, based on what we actually "know" that is probably about right. That being said, I'm hoping for better but for that to happen a lot of "ifs" have to become reality. Cupboard isn't bare and the Beavs have some good pieces, but at this point way too many question marks to believe they can go .500 in league let alone better without looking through orange-colored lenses. Thankfully I keep a pair close by. You may only need your orange colored readers this year. We were predicted 9th or 10th in the conference last year and finished 4th, and above .500. We lost our best, if not schizophrenic scorer, a journeyman big and a project big, and replaced them with some very promising recruits. Not the least of which is a true PG that this team desperately needed. Sure, this team has some questions it needs to answer. Everyone does. I think Tinkle has done a great job of answering our needs, and that regardless of rankings this incoming class will be one of the best he has recruited to this point. If we are, indeed, picked 9th or 10th again this year, then yeah... probably underrated.
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Post by beaverinohio on Jul 23, 2019 9:23:28 GMT -8
I have to agree. I've not seen much in the way of conference previews, but the few I have seen have the Beavs forecast to finish 9th or 10th. Historically, that means about 5 to 8 conference wins. Unfortunately, based on what we actually "know" that is probably about right. That being said, I'm hoping for better but for that to happen a lot of "ifs" have to become reality. Cupboard isn't bare and the Beavs have some good pieces, but at this point way too many question marks to believe they can go .500 in league let alone better without looking through orange-colored lenses. Thankfully I keep a pair close by. You may only need your orange colored readers this year. We were predicted 9th or 10th in the conference last year and finished 4th, and above .500. We lost our best, if not schizophrenic scorer, a journeyman big and a project big, and replaced them with some very promising recruits. Not the least of which is a true PG that this team desperately needed. Sure, this team has some questions it needs to answer. Everyone does. I think Tinkle has done a great job of answering our needs, and that regardless of rankings this incoming class will be one of the best he has recruited to this point. If we are, indeed, picked 9th or 10th again this year, then yeah... probably underrated. Hey, I hope you're right. But I think on paper the Beavs are probably rated right where they should be. Now last year I think they were underrated, especially when you factor in how down the league was. I like the potential of some of the guys WT has brought in, but I don't see a 16 ppg scorer or someone who can give the team a relatively effective 15 mpg at center in the Pac 12 in that bunch. And though I'm far from being a great player evaluater, I was more impressed with WW's tapes going into last year than I am of the tape of either of the two incoming bigs. As I said in a post on another thread, I think the keys to the season are Hollins taking a big step forward and Hunt being at least somewhat effective at the point and giving the Beavs more than Vernon did last year -- with the wild card being Sean M-M (really think this guy could surprise). If those things happen then they could cobble together enough points to offset Stevie's loss and possibly be a better defensive team then last year. Like I said, a lot of "ifs." But there is potential for a fun season.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Jul 23, 2019 14:29:48 GMT -8
One thing on Kylor Kelly being foul prone. He actually only averaged 3.8 fouls per 40 minutes and the last 15 game hit 4 fouls twice. His minutes weren't all that limited by fouls that last half season. Hopefully he bulks up a tad prior to next season. He could potentially have an amazing year.
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Post by beavheart on Jul 23, 2019 16:53:33 GMT -8
You may only need your orange colored readers this year. We were predicted 9th or 10th in the conference last year and finished 4th, and above .500. We lost our best, if not schizophrenic scorer, a journeyman big and a project big, and replaced them with some very promising recruits. Not the least of which is a true PG that this team desperately needed. Sure, this team has some questions it needs to answer. Everyone does. I think Tinkle has done a great job of answering our needs, and that regardless of rankings this incoming class will be one of the best he has recruited to this point. If we are, indeed, picked 9th or 10th again this year, then yeah... probably underrated. Hey, I hope you're right. But I think on paper the Beavs are probably rated right where they should be. Now last year I think they were underrated, especially when you factor in how down the league was. I like the potential of some of the guys WT has brought in, but I don't see a 16 ppg scorer or someone who can give the team a relatively effective 15 mpg at center in the Pac 12 in that bunch. And though I'm far from being a great player evaluater, I was more impressed with WW's tapes going into last year than I am of the tape of either of the two incoming bigs. As I said in a post on another thread, I think the keys to the season are Hollins taking a big step forward and Hunt being at least somewhat effective at the point and giving the Beavs more than Vernon did last year -- with the wild card being Sean M-M (really think this guy could surprise). If those things happen then they could cobble together enough points to offset Stevie's loss and possibly be a better defensive team then last year. Like I said, a lot of "ifs." But there is potential for a fun season. Well, if they were underrated last year and we return the vast majority of that team, wouldn't it stand to reason that a 9th or 10th ranking again is likely an underrating? I dunno, and don't really care, because I'm sure we don't look good on paper. What that really means is entirely subjective, but in all honesty we weren't that pretty of a 4th place team last year. BAD out of conference losses and running out of gas at the end of the season probably didn't impress anyone. I guess people expect us to regress from last season. I don't see it that way. I think this team takes a step forward this year. I don't have any insight really. Just a hunch, and what I think both Gianni Hunt and a more mature Antoine Vernon can do to help pull our act together on both ends of the floor. I do think there will be some wild-card players that emerge this year as well. I could see Sean M-M making an impact also, and he should be the most game ready of the incoming players. Frankly, I expect to see improvement from everybody. Hollins, Kelley, Reichle, Vernon and even ET all have plenty of room to improve. I'm excited to see what guys like Sean M-M, Li, and Hunt can add to the equation. Hopefully from Tres on down the line guys are bulking up and working on their game this summer, and with the new guys coming in I think this team has a chance to do some damage. I agree that WW looked better before last year than the new guys do, and I hated to see him go. WW reminded me of Eric Moreland in that he is a great athlete for his size, but far from a polished basketball player. Essentially we lost Big G and WW, and gained Li and Tucker. Li is a totally different kind of player. He is more like a Joe Burton type of player. Not the best athlete on the floor at his position a lot of the time, but makes up for it by using his body and being a really crafty player. What little bit I have seen of Tucker he looks to be more of slasher than WW. One or both of these guys will have to contribute this year.
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Post by Judge Smails on Jul 23, 2019 17:11:30 GMT -8
Hey, I hope you're right. But I think on paper the Beavs are probably rated right where they should be. Now last year I think they were underrated, especially when you factor in how down the league was. I like the potential of some of the guys WT has brought in, but I don't see a 16 ppg scorer or someone who can give the team a relatively effective 15 mpg at center in the Pac 12 in that bunch. And though I'm far from being a great player evaluater, I was more impressed with WW's tapes going into last year than I am of the tape of either of the two incoming bigs. As I said in a post on another thread, I think the keys to the season are Hollins taking a big step forward and Hunt being at least somewhat effective at the point and giving the Beavs more than Vernon did last year -- with the wild card being Sean M-M (really think this guy could surprise). If those things happen then they could cobble together enough points to offset Stevie's loss and possibly be a better defensive team then last year. Like I said, a lot of "ifs." But there is potential for a fun season. Well, if they were underrated last year and we return the vast majority of that team, wouldn't it stand to reason that a 9th or 10th ranking again is likely an underrating? I dunno, and don't really care, because I'm sure we don't look good on paper. What that really means is entirely subjective, but in all honesty we weren't that pretty of a 4th place team last year. BAD out of conference losses and running out of gas at the end of the season probably didn't impress anyone. I guess people expect us to regress from last season. I don't see it that way. I think this team takes a step forward this year. I don't have any insight really. Just a hunch, and what I think both Gianni Hunt and a more mature Antoine Vernon can do to help pull our act together on both ends of the floor. I do think there will be some wild-card players that emerge this year as well. I could see Sean M-M making an impact also, and he should be the most game ready of the incoming players. Frankly, I expect to see improvement from everybody. Hollins, Kelley, Reichle, Vernon and even ET all have plenty of room to improve. I'm excited to see what guys like Sean M-M, Li, and Hunt can add to the equation. Hopefully from Tres on down the line guys are bulking up and working on their game this summer, and with the new guys coming in I think this team has a chance to do some damage. I agree that WW looked better before last year than the new guys do, and I hated to see him go. WW reminded me of Eric Moreland in that he is a great athlete for his size, but far from a polished basketball player. Essentially we lost Big G and WW, and gained Li and Tucker. Li is a totally different kind of player. He is more like a Joe Burton type of player. Not the best athlete on the floor at his position a lot of the time, but makes up for it by using his body and being a really crafty player. What little bit I have seen of Tucker he looks to be more of slasher than WW. One or both of these guys will have to contribute this year. I would agree with some of your post, but you lost me when you forgot to mention our 2nd best scorer that we lost. You know, the all time OSU 3 pt shooter. Yeah, that guy.
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Post by babeav on Jul 23, 2019 17:34:06 GMT -8
Reading all these posts makes me glad I’m not baseball1111.....I couldn’t sleep at night and wouldn’t renew my men’s BB tickets every year....it must really suck to be such a negative know-it-all.
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Post by ee1990 on Jul 23, 2019 18:20:02 GMT -8
It's basketball, you don't need 15 players to be good. Tinkle, Thompson Thompson is a nice place to start. LOL... you do know OSU is down to one Thompson? And you do need 6-7 quality D1 contributors to be good, let alone underrated Yeah I forgot. Oh well, I'll go back to being a pessimist, I do it better anyway.
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Post by baseba1111 on Jul 23, 2019 21:32:34 GMT -8
LOL... you do know OSU is down to one Thompson? And you do need 6-7 quality D1 contributors to be good, let alone underrated Yeah I forgot. Oh well, I'll go back to being a pessimist, I do it better anyway. Being a realist knowing there are more unknowns than knowns is oft times seen as such in this "territory". But, far more honest than blowing smoke of those that wear heavily tinted glasses...
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Jul 24, 2019 7:52:26 GMT -8
Well, if they were underrated last year and we return the vast majority of that team, wouldn't it stand to reason that a 9th or 10th ranking again is likely an underrating? I dunno, and don't really care, because I'm sure we don't look good on paper. What that really means is entirely subjective, but in all honesty we weren't that pretty of a 4th place team last year. BAD out of conference losses and running out of gas at the end of the season probably didn't impress anyone. I guess people expect us to regress from last season. I don't see it that way. I think this team takes a step forward this year. I don't have any insight really. Just a hunch, and what I think both Gianni Hunt and a more mature Antoine Vernon can do to help pull our act together on both ends of the floor. I do think there will be some wild-card players that emerge this year as well. I could see Sean M-M making an impact also, and he should be the most game ready of the incoming players. Frankly, I expect to see improvement from everybody. Hollins, Kelley, Reichle, Vernon and even ET all have plenty of room to improve. I'm excited to see what guys like Sean M-M, Li, and Hunt can add to the equation. Hopefully from Tres on down the line guys are bulking up and working on their game this summer, and with the new guys coming in I think this team has a chance to do some damage. I agree that WW looked better before last year than the new guys do, and I hated to see him go. WW reminded me of Eric Moreland in that he is a great athlete for his size, but far from a polished basketball player. Essentially we lost Big G and WW, and gained Li and Tucker. Li is a totally different kind of player. He is more like a Joe Burton type of player. Not the best athlete on the floor at his position a lot of the time, but makes up for it by using his body and being a really crafty player. What little bit I have seen of Tucker he looks to be more of slasher than WW. One or both of these guys will have to contribute this year. I would agree with some of your post, but you lost me when you forgot to mention our 2nd best scorer that we lost. You know, the all time OSU 3 pt shooter. Yeah, that guy. Not to be down on Stephen, but I actually think Ethan brings more to the table in the two spot. Tail end of last season I thought our offense looked at it’s best when Vernon was at the point. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say this season will potentially have better play from both guard spots. I think there’s a good chance our overall play at center this year, depending on what the backups do and if Kylor stays healthy. My big question is Dastrup. The little I saw of him in the preseason team game he looked like a power forward to me. I don’t think he can run like Tres and not sure if he’s a banger underneath, so he’s my big question mark until the season begins and we see him in action. If he can play well enough to spend the bulk of his time there and Tres slides over to the 3 spot, I think the Tinkle/Dastrup combo potentially brings more to the table than we saw from Tinkle/Reichle/Hollins last year. Last season Ethan shot the 3 at a 5% better rate, and Antoine shot the 3 at a 12% better rate, than Stephen. I’m not so sure we’ll miss Stephen’s point production when it’s all said and done.
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Post by beavheart on Jul 24, 2019 8:34:20 GMT -8
Well, if they were underrated last year and we return the vast majority of that team, wouldn't it stand to reason that a 9th or 10th ranking again is likely an underrating? I dunno, and don't really care, because I'm sure we don't look good on paper. What that really means is entirely subjective, but in all honesty we weren't that pretty of a 4th place team last year. BAD out of conference losses and running out of gas at the end of the season probably didn't impress anyone. I guess people expect us to regress from last season. I don't see it that way. I think this team takes a step forward this year. I don't have any insight really. Just a hunch, and what I think both Gianni Hunt and a more mature Antoine Vernon can do to help pull our act together on both ends of the floor. I do think there will be some wild-card players that emerge this year as well. I could see Sean M-M making an impact also, and he should be the most game ready of the incoming players. Frankly, I expect to see improvement from everybody. Hollins, Kelley, Reichle, Vernon and even ET all have plenty of room to improve. I'm excited to see what guys like Sean M-M, Li, and Hunt can add to the equation. Hopefully from Tres on down the line guys are bulking up and working on their game this summer, and with the new guys coming in I think this team has a chance to do some damage. I agree that WW looked better before last year than the new guys do, and I hated to see him go. WW reminded me of Eric Moreland in that he is a great athlete for his size, but far from a polished basketball player. Essentially we lost Big G and WW, and gained Li and Tucker. Li is a totally different kind of player. He is more like a Joe Burton type of player. Not the best athlete on the floor at his position a lot of the time, but makes up for it by using his body and being a really crafty player. What little bit I have seen of Tucker he looks to be more of slasher than WW. One or both of these guys will have to contribute this year. I would agree with some of your post, but you lost me when you forgot to mention our 2nd best scorer that we lost. You know, the all time OSU 3 pt shooter. Yeah, that guy. I didn't forget about Stevie. My post kind of jumps around, but I was more responding to BeavinOhio about WW, and was just talking about what we lost in the front court specifically. Speaking of Stevie, I tend to agree with DrunkandStupid, I'm not sure we are going to miss his streaky shooting as much as it might seem. I think we see a more shared load with the scoring, and I'm hoping that makes for a more sustainable group effort. I would like to see more pick and rolls this year, and more of an inside/outside game plan, and a lot less just whipping the ball around the perimeter (aka "Motion") with the hopes that Stevie can bail us out with a deep 3. God love him, but I am expecting something that looks more like a concerted offensive game plan without our all-time greatest 3 point shooter on the floor, and the insertion of some true PG play. If that makes sense? Something about knowing that no one guy is going to carry the load every night (besides Tres) I think will light a fire under everyone's seat.
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Post by baseba1111 on Jul 24, 2019 11:11:34 GMT -8
Well...
WW is seen by many "experts" as one of the Top 50 transfers/not eligible. He is a HUGE loss. We have zero bigs with his upside and athleticism.
Vernon's data is largely incomplete... 12% on far far fewer attempts. ST was a contributor from Day 1, streaky, but a contributor. Vernon couldn't break into the lineup consistently on a team with no PG. He'll have to take a large step forward to offset ST loss as Ethan isn't going to raise his game by any significant margin/16 ppg.
Inside game development is a MUST. Every team we play knows what our strength will be. Tres and Ethan can't reach new heights at 36-38 min/game every night. Whether by committee or a HUGE step forward by KK, the inside play must be a bigger/much bigger factor. And, that is more on the scheme/coach which has never seemed to value it as seen by the consistent ignoring of open post players.
A consistent 5-7 player rotation that actually contributes... moves themselves and the ball, makes the unselfish pass/play when appropriate, can actually set/use a screen. I have more confidence in the players improving than the scheme/teaching/reinforcing actually allowing it.
What could improve dramatically... the exterior DEFENSE. ST was TERRIBLE... he made others terrible and created foul troubles at times.
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Post by ochobeavo on Jul 24, 2019 11:18:24 GMT -8
Well... WW is seen by many "experts" as one of the Top 50 transfers/not eligible. He is a HUGE loss. We have zero bigs with his upside and athleticism. Vernon's data is largely incomplete... 12% on far far fewer attempts. ST was a contributor from Day 1, streaky, but a contributor. Vernon couldn't break into the lineup consistently on a team with no PG. He'll have to take a large step forward to offset ST loss as Ethan isn't going to raise his game by any significant margin/16 ppg. Inside game development is a MUST. Every team we play knows what our strength will be. Tres and Ethan can't reach new heights at 36-38 min/game every night. Whether by committee or A huge step forward by KK, the inside play must be a bigger/much bigger factor. And, that is more on the scheme coach which has never seemed to value it as seen by the consistent ignoring or open post players. A consistent 5-7 player rotation that actually contributes... moves themselves and the ball, makes the unselfish pass/play when appropriate, can actually set/use a screen. I have more confidence in the players improving than the scheme/teaching/reinforcing allowing it. What could improve dramatically... the exterior DEFENSE. ST was TERRIBLE... he made others terrible and created foul troubles at times.You beat me to it. A combo of ST/TT/ZR doesn't fare very well whatsoever in the lateral quickness Olympics... Hoping we can get much better in that area this season with the new guys + no ST and a little/lot less ZR. The bigs will definitely appreciate it.
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Post by nabeav on Jul 24, 2019 11:47:00 GMT -8
If we have a point guard that can actually make some things happen, I think it makes everyone better immediately. Tres and Ethan not having to expend copious amounts of energy just to get a decent look would in theory raise both their efficiency on offense and their defensive ability.
The biggest thing this team is missing is a guy who can create off the dribble. Tres and Stevie could get their own shot, but it mostly step backs and using up-fakes. Neither of them is creating 5 on 4 situations by beating their defender off the bounce. If we can get that and create more lobs at the rim for Kylor, more open 3s for Tres or hitting Ethan on a secondary cut, we could be in business.
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Post by seastape on Jul 24, 2019 11:56:40 GMT -8
If Kylor is to step up his game, then we need a coaching staff that is dedicated to giving him the opportunities to do so. I'm not sure we have that. He always seemed to be the 4th option. With ST gone, maybe there will be more emphasis on Kylor on the offensive end, but I'll believe it when I see it.
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Post by drunkandstoopidbeav on Jul 24, 2019 12:02:08 GMT -8
I see having a point guard as a HUGE plus. He may only score 8-11 a game, but could easily spread around an extra 12-20 points that weren't there without a true point guard. Vernon is the first point guard we've had since Malcolm left, if the new kid is better... hip, hip, hooray (even if that is a football phrase). Both Stevie and Ethan have done admirable jobs playing the point considering it's not their natural position, but I like finally having an effective option or two at the point.
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