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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2018 5:35:45 GMT -8
On paper, our recruiting record doesn't look that good. I went back to the ProspectsNation rankings from 2013 through 2018 and looked at the ranking of our top-100 recruits. Not at all good compared to those teams that consistently rank near the top year after year.
2013 Wiese #80 2015 KMac #70 2016 Tudor #42 2016 Pivec #52 2016 MW #66 2017 Taya #35 2017 Aleah #52 2018 Aquino #33
So according to these rankings we must not be a very good team. And it would seem foolish for us to expect to suddenly start landing top 10 players like Brink and Van Lith....
(Of course, some furreners like Gulich, Hamblin, and Orum weren't showing up on ProspectsNation's radar, but they wouldn't have been ranked very high anyway.)
I guess you would therefore have to attribute our WBB team's success to good player development or good coaching or good recruiting of under-ranked players.
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Post by beavershoopsfan on Jul 31, 2018 7:10:49 GMT -8
Thickhead,
Perhaps the last recruiting rankings program that I would cite would be Prospects Nation based upon what I have observed and discussed with others in the know during the past decade.
Prospects Nation is commonly credited for elevating players who attend their "Check Me Out" Showcases over other more objective recruiting networks.
Many of those rankings for OSU players that you noted in the Prospects Nation rankings are significantly higher on ESPNW and other organizations that don't directly profit from high school girls attending their camps.
However, I believe that your point is that the OSU program is consistently recruiting players that are developing better as collegiate players than the peers in their graduation classes that have been evaluated ahead of them when they were seniors in high school. I would agree with that.
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Post by newduke2 on Jul 31, 2018 9:47:18 GMT -8
I would not call OSU's recruiting "SAD", although I agree with Thickhead's last statement as 3 strong reasons for the Beaver's success. I would say OSU is doing fairly well with improving signs. Also, JS was/is ranked as the #7 international player by PN for 2018. I think Westbrook (#2) was a near miss in 2017. And, while DS was not a direct recruiting "win" per say, she IS on the team and was #7 in 2016 by PN.
PM was/is #147...definitely under the radar and a developmental player, as SR pretty much indicated.
for 2019, Taylor Jones is #15 and presumably will sign in November, Kemmery Martin #33 was a close call, and Kennedy Brown #58 is pending. I think in a year or 2 OSU will directly sign a top 10 player!
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Post by believeinthebeavs on Jul 31, 2018 10:18:59 GMT -8
I personally think it is GREAT player development by a GREAT coaching staff. It is hard to say if the players recruited are under ranked.
And I agree pn and their rankings are based on their own tournaments and so lacks credibility.
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Post by rmancarl on Jul 31, 2018 11:50:22 GMT -8
I wouldn't call the Beavers recruiting as 'sad' by any means, but I recently did the same thing thickhead did and look at how the Beavers recruiting ranked in the Pac12 the past several years, and basically I just about every year, the Beavers would be ranked somewhere around the middle of the Pac. The difference would be that Beavers recruiting was pretty steady around that middle to upper teir, whereas a lot of other teams would be inconsistent. Some years an Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, Cal, etc would have a really good class, and then the next year their class would rank near the bottom. Stanford is pretty steady near the top......of course. I didn't do an average over the 2013-2018 time span, but if I (or someone) would check, I think the Beavers would be upper tier because of their steady strong (although not spectacular) class the last few seasons.
It will be interesting to see how the next couple seasons of recruiting go. The 2019 class is off to a strong start with Taylor. And the Beavers are still in on 3 or 4 that are ranked in the top 50 that I am aware of. The middle school, and High school girls of these last few years saw 3 straight Pac12 titles for the Beavers, 2 elite 8 appearances, and one final four. That has definitely turned heads and is why girls like Rickea Jackson and Brea Beal will at least listen to the Beavers. I wrote this in an earlier post, but out of the consensus top 10 recruits of 2020, at least 5 are paying attention to the Beavers and listening to Beavers coaches recruiting pitch. This would not of been the case a few years ago. Now, it would be fun to land a few of these.
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Post by baseba1111 on Jul 31, 2018 12:23:47 GMT -8
Or... maybe... it just shows recruiting ranking is complete and utter BS and a crap shoot for the majority of those who are not obviously elite??! There is no definitive way to distinguish between most of the top 20-30% of D1 WBB players as HS seniors. Too many variables that can't be accounted for.
Recruiting sites are there to make money not provide a "sure thing'... it's opinion. They do provide some help to coaches, but believe me, just as in the past before all the BS sites SR and other coaches already have their connects and pipelines for info.
What those numbers show? That rankings can't EVER measure growth, character, dedication, abilities when faced with equal or better talent all over the floor. AND, how much player development can make a difference in a team game... as is occurring at OSU. People hung up on top talent/recruit rankings are a bit out of the loop or need something to jabber about. Coaches that are truly "successful" develop players that they find that fit their style. Coaches often do not recruit or even dissuade recruits that do not fit their style no matter the talent. It take guts and belief in your system (with support for Admin), but the best recruits don't always turn out, and certainly do not make a program automatically better.
I'll take those meaningless rankings and the current rate of program success for the rest of my OSU WBB viewing days...
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Post by Benevolent Dictator on Jul 31, 2018 12:32:02 GMT -8
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Post by beaverwbb fan on Jul 31, 2018 13:36:29 GMT -8
For those of you who follow womens basketball, another school that has had a ton of success without recruiting top players is Mississippi State. They have made the national championship two years in a row and Victoria Vivians was their only player ranked in the top 40 by ESPN. For sure recruiting highly ranked players helps, but look at UCLA. Their seniors this year were part of the number 1 class in the nation, but without elite recruits we were able to beat them this year (although we got killed too).
I think it is a testament to our staff, the way they develop and coach these players, and the system they run (and recruiting players that fit into this system)
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Post by beaverstever on Jul 31, 2018 14:07:20 GMT -8
Hold up - a team with a range of top 100 players (regardless if in the upper vs lower 50) is sad recruiting??? 10 programs MAX in the nation (out of of 349) get a top 10 recruit each year, and spreading 100 players around 350 teams gets think pretty quickly. I believe we've had a total of 5 ESPN 100 players in the last decade on the men's side (coaches' sons + Collier and Nelson -- giving credence to having access to exposure has a lot to making such lists).
I would expect having 5+ top 100 players on one team (and more that aren't far off the list) is going to make for a pretty solid team. Not taking away from Rueck's coaching ability, but he's not working with scrubs these days.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2018 17:02:32 GMT -8
Dan Olsen (ESPN) only ranks girls high that he watches personally - so he is not the most reliable source but is the most trusted. Prospect Nation are a paid service so their girls get priority ranking. I think Wiese @ #80 pretty much sums up this conversation Anyone in the top 100 is a great get, you only have to look at our list over the last 5 years
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Post by bvrbooster on Jul 31, 2018 21:14:50 GMT -8
Number of top 100 recruits (Hoopgurlz ratings) who were signed by PAC 12 schools over the last 4 years:
Oregon State 7 (does not include Destiny)
Oregon 7
Washington 2
Wash. St. 1
Cal 8
Stanford 9
UCLA 8
USC 8
Arizona 3
Arizona St. 4
Utah 1
Colorado 2
Doesn't look to me like we aren't getting our share. Oh, and look back where Hoopgurlz had Kelsey Plum the same year they put Sid at 80 - somewhere around number 60, 3 notches higher than they had Goodman.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2018 4:36:39 GMT -8
Number of top 100 recruits (Hoopgurlz ratings) who were signed by PAC 12 schools over the last 4 years: Oregon State 7 (does not include Destiny) Okay, you've demonstrated that we're in the top half in the Pac-12 in recruiting individuals who are touted by recruiting services as being very good players (barely). And you're comparing us to other Pac-12 teams, none of which have been national championship caliber teams for the last 4 years. Mississippi State, Louisville, UConn, and Notre Dame ARE of that caliber. My point was that those teams (in this case, MSU may be the exception, but they got lucky with McCowan) generally have multiple stars who were top-10 talents out of HS (e.g. Asia Durr, Ogumbowale/Shepard, Collier/Samuelson/Williams) who seem to be the ones lifting their teams into being NC contenders. UCLA, the Ucks, and OSU made the elite 8, but were all clearly outclassed by the teams that made the final 4 this year. All of those final 4 teams were competitive with each other and operating on a higher level. Yeah, our recruiting is "good", but not elite. The addition of Slocum (at top 10 talent) and a great year from Aquino (who perhaps should have been rated a top 10 talent) could be enough to lift us into NC contention, but that would just bolster my point.
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Post by beaverstever on Aug 1, 2018 8:42:25 GMT -8
Number of top 100 recruits (Hoopgurlz ratings) who were signed by PAC 12 schools over the last 4 years: Oregon State 7 (does not include Destiny) Okay, you've demonstrated that we're in the top half in the Pac-12 in recruiting individuals who are touted by recruiting services as being very good players (barely). And you're comparing us to other Pac-12 teams, none of which have been national championship caliber teams for the last 4 years. Mississippi State, Louisville, UConn, and Notre Dame ARE of that caliber. My point was that those teams (in this case, MSU may be the exception, but they got lucky with McCowan) generally have multiple stars who were top-10 talents out of HS (e.g. Asia Durr, Ogumbowale/Shepard, Collier/Samuelson/Williams) who seem to be the ones lifting their teams into being NC contenders. UCLA, the Ucks, and OSU made the elite 8, but were all clearly outclassed by the teams that made the final 4 this year. All of those final 4 teams were competitive with each other and operating on a higher level. Yeah, our recruiting is "good", but not elite. The addition of Slocum (at top 10 talent) and a great year from Aquino (who perhaps should have been rated a top 10 talent) could be enough to lift us into NC contention, but that would just bolster my point. Ok, so your point is that our recruiting is not on par with the Notre Dame and UConns of the world, which would be needed to move from a top 10 program (but not top 5) - I completely agree with that. In women's basketball in particular, the gap between 1-5 and 5-10 is still often pretty significant compared to the men's game, primarily due to the lack of players leaving early. That said, OSU is chipping away at getting more players closer and even at this top-tier caliber (instead of needing to develop them). And it seems a bit ludicrous in general to be complaining we aren't recruiting as well as a UConn or Notre Dame (frankly, to even be recruiting as well as UCLA and Stanford is an amazing accomplishment). I'm personally really high on Simmons, Aquino and Slocum - I believe that is a core foundation that can challenge for it all. But my opinion is even more worthless than any biased recruiting service.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2018 9:13:48 GMT -8
I'm personally really high on Simmons, Aquino and Slocum - I believe that is a core foundation that can challenge for it all. But my opinion is even more worthless than any biased recruiting service. I agree with you. I think we got 3 really good freshmen in this class that could be the core of an NC contender in a year or two, since Slocum will still be here then to run the point, along with Taya, Aleah, Taylor Jones, and TBD. Hopefully it's as soon as next year when we have all our great 3 point shooters but Katie. The ingredients are there, and that's what's got everybody so excited about OSU WBB. My initial swipe at our recruiting was just to point out that we've not had a shot at the Van Lith / Brink types in the past, yet many people seem to think we now do. If we could ramp up our recruiting success to get these top players, our chances of becoming an NC contender would be much greater. (My evocative initial post did get the conversation going!)
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Post by 411500 on Aug 1, 2018 14:44:58 GMT -8
OK -Just for fun !!
Quickly list the 5 most successful WBB programs in the Pac-12 over the past 5 years. Quickly list the 5 least successful WBB programs in the Pac-12 over the past 5 years.
Now take a look at the recruiting info provided by bvrbooster.
Number of top 100 recruits signed by PAC 12 schools over the last 4 years:
Oregon State 8 (incl. Destiny); Oregon 7; Cal 8; Stanford 9; UCLA 8; USC 8
Arizona St. 4
Arizona. 3; UW 2; WSU. 1; Utah 1; Colorado 2;
Now: Compare your list with the number of top 100 recruits signed over the past 4 years.
The overlap does not have to be 100% to be persuasive. (In Vegas if your right 75% of the time you're galactically rich in one week !!)
Bottom line: Recruiting isn't everything - but it's damn close....
It's virtually impossible (never say never) to win consistently without being in the top 1/3 of the recruiting rankings.
Look who gets floor time for the Beavs. Look who sits. Compare their recruiting rankings. Not a perfect correlation, but close enough to get the picture.
GO BEAVS !!
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